47 resultados para Ecological niche modelling
Resumo:
Notified cases of dengue infections in Singapore reached historical highs in 2004 (9459 cases) and 2005 (13 817 cases) and the reason for such all increase is still to be established. We apply a mathematical model for dengue infection that takes into account the seasonal variation in incidence, characteristic of dengue fever, and which mimics the 2004-2005 epidemics in Singapore. We simulated a set of possible control strategies and confirmed the intuitive belief that killing adult mosquitoes is the most effective strategy to control an ongoing epidemic. On the other hand, the control of immature forms was very efficient ill preventing the resurgence of dengue epidemics. Since the control of immature forms allows the reduction of adulticide, it seems that the best strategy is to combine both adulticide and larvicide control measures during an outbreak, followed by the maintenance of larvicide methods after the epidemic has subsided. In addition, the model showed that the mixed strategy of adulticide and larvicide methods introduced by the government seems to be very effective in reducing the number of cases in the first weeks after the start of control.
Resumo:
In a recent ecological study of the ticks on animal trails within an area of Atlantic rainforest in south-eastern Brazil, Amblyomma aureolatum, A. brasiliense, A. incisum, A. ovale and Haemaphysalis juxtakochi were found questing on the vegetation. Most of the ticks recorded by a small, man-made dam on the forest border were A. dubitatum but a few A. brasiliense and A. cajennense, one A. incisum and one H. juxtakochi were also found. The seasonal activity of the ticks indicated that A. incisum and A. brasiliense had one generation/year. On the animal trails, most tick species and stages quested on the vegetation at a height of 30-40 cm above ground level. The questing larvae and adults of A. incisum tended to be found higher, however, with the greatest numbers recorded 40-50 cm (larvae) or 60-70 cm (adults) above ground level. Most of the adult ticks (81.1% -100%), nymphs (78.6%-100%) and larval clusters (100%) found on a forest trail remained questing at the same location over a 24-h period. Carbon-dioxide traps in the rainforest attracted, 50% of the ticks observed questing on the nearby vegetation and, curiously, the CO(2) traps set deep in the forest attracted far fewer ticks than similar traps set by the dam. The ecological relationships between the ticks, their hosts and the rainforest environment are discussed.