389 resultados para Disease Modeling
Resumo:
Background: Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) can have recurrent disease exacerbations triggered by several factors, including air pollution. Visits to the emergency respiratory department can be a direct result of short-term exposure to air pollution. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between the daily number of COPD emergency department visits and the daily environmental air concentrations of PM(10), SO(2), NO(2), CO and O(3) in the City of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Methods: The sample data were collected between 2001 and 2003 and are categorised by gender and age. Generalised linear Poisson regression models were adopted to control for both short-and long-term seasonal changes as well as for temperature and relative humidity. The non-linear dependencies were controlled using a natural cubic spline function. Third-degree polynomial distributed lag models were adopted to estimate both lag structures and the cumulative effects of air pollutants. Results: PM(10) and SO(2) readings showed both acute and lagged effects on COPD emergency department visits. Interquartile range increases in their concentration (28.3 mg/m(3) and 7.8 mg/m(3), respectively) were associated with a cumulative 6-day increase of 19% and 16% in COPD admissions, respectively. An effect on women was observed at lag 0, and among the elderly the lag period was noted to be longer. Increases in CO concentration showed impacts in the female and elderly groups. NO(2) and O(3) presented mild effects on the elderly and in women, respectively. Conclusion: These results indicate that air pollution affects health in a gender-and age-specific manner and should be considered a relevant risk factor that exacerbates COPD in urban environments.
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A century after its discovery, Chagas' disease still represents a major public health challenge in Latin America. Moreover, because of growing population movements, an increasing number of cases of imported Chagas' disease have now been detected in non-endemic areas, such as North America and some European countries. This parasitic zoonosis, caused by Trypanosoma cruzi, is transmitted to humans by infected Triatominae insects, or occasionally by non-vectorial mechanisms, such as blood transfusion, mother to fetus, or oral ingestion of materials contaminated with parasites. Following the acute phase of the infection, untreated individuals enter a chronic phase that is initially asymptomatic or clinically unapparent. Usually, a few decades later, 40-50% of patients develop progressive cardiomyopathy and/or motility disturbances of the oesophagus and colon. In the last decades several interventions targeting primary, secondary and tertiary prevention of Chagas' disease have been attempted. While control of both vectorial and blood transfusion transmission of T cruzi (primary prevention) has been successful in many regions of Latin America, early detection and aetiological treatment of asymptomatic subjects with Chagas' disease (secondary prevention) have been largely underutilised. At the same time, in patients with established chronic disease, several pharmacological and non-pharmacological interventions are currently available and have been increasingly used with the intention of preventing or delaying complications of the disease (tertiary prevention). In this review we discuss in detail each of these issues.
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The identification of genetic markers associated with chronic kidney disease (CKD) may help to predict its development. Because reduced nitric oxide (NO) bioavailability and endothelial dysfunction are involved in CKD, genetic polymorphisms in the gene encoding the enzyme involved in NO synthesis (endothelial NO synthase [eNos]) may affect the susceptibility to CKD and the development of end-stage renal disease (ESRD). We compared genotype and haplotype distributions of three relevant eNOS polymorphisms (T(-786) C in the promoter region, Glu298Asp in exon 7, and 4b/4a in intron 4) in 110 healthy control subjects and 127 ESRD patients. Genotypes for the T(-786) C and Glu298Asp polymorphisms were determined by TaqMan (R) Allele Discrimination assay and real-time polymerase chain reaction. Genotypes for the intron 4 polymorphism were determined by polymerase chain reaction and fragment separation by electrophoresis. The software program PHASE 2.1 was used to estimate the haplotypes frequencies. We considered significant a probability value of p < 0.05/number of haplotypes (p < 0.05/8 = 0.0063). We found no significant differences between groups with respect to age, ethnicity, and gender. CKD patients had higher blood pressure, total cholesterol, and creatinine levels than healthy control subjects (all p < 0.05). Genotype and allele distributions for the three eNOS polymorphisms were similar in both groups (p > 0.05). We found no significant differences in haplotype distribution between groups (p > 0.05). The lack of significant associations between eNOS polymorphisms and ESRD suggests that eNOS polymorphisms may not be relevant to the genetic component of CKD that leads to ESRD.
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Interethnic differences exist in disease prevalence, especially with regard to cancer and cardiovascular diseases, which involve altered expression or activity of matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs). The hypothesis being tested in this study is that interethnic differences exist between blacks and whites with regard to the distribution of genetic variants of MMP polymorphisms and haplotypes. We examined the distribution of polymorphisms of MMP-2 and MMP-9 genes in 177 black and 140 white subjects. We studied the following polymorphisms: the C(-1306)T in the promoter of the MMP-2 gene, the C(-1562)T and a microsatellite -90(CA)(14-24) in the promoter, and the Q279R in exon 6 of the MMP-9 gene. We have also compared our results with those from Hapmap or Seattle SNPs Projects and estimated the haplotype frequency in these two ethnic groups. The ""C'' allele for the C(-1306)T polymorphism was more common in blacks (91.5%) than in whites (80.4%; p<0.0001). The ""T'' allele for the C(-1562)T polymorphism was more common in blacks (15.0%) than in whites (8.9%; p=0.0279), as well as the alleles with >21 repeats for the -90(CA)(14-24) were more common in blacks than in whites (61.9% in blacks and 49.3% in whites; p=0.0017). We found no interethnic differences for the Q279R polymorphism. Moreover, two haplotypes that combine ""detrimental'' alleles were found at higher frequencies in blacks than in whites (31% vs. 16.4%, respectively; p<0.05). The interethnic differences being reported here replicate those previously found with smaller number of subjects in the Hapmap or Seattle SNPs data and may help explain the higher prevalence of cancer and cardiovascular diseases in blacks compared with whites. Our findings suggest a proportional significance of these polymorphisms in each ethnic group.
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Background Minimal residual disease is an important independent prognostic factor in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia. The classical detection methods such as multiparameter flow cytometry and real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction analysis are expensive, time-consuming and complex, and require considerable technical expertise. Design and Methods We analyzed 229 consecutive children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia treated according to the GBTLI-99 protocol at three different Brazilian centers. Minimal residual disease was analyzed in bone marrow samples at diagnosis and on days 14 and 28 by conventional homo/heteroduplex polymerase chain reaction using a simplified approach with consensus primers for IG and TCR gene rearrangements. Results At least one marker was detected by polymerase chain reaction in 96.4%, of the patients. By combining the minimal residual disease results obtained on days 14 and 28, three different prognostic groups were identified: minimal residual disease negative on days 14 and 28, positive on day 14/negative on day 28, and positive on both. Five-year event-free survival rates were 85%, 75.6%,, and 27.8%, respectively (p<0.0001). The same pattern of stratification held true for the group of intensively treated children. When analyzed in other subgroups of patients such as those at standard and high risk at diagnosis, those with positive B-derived CD10, patients positive for the TEL/AML1 transcript, and patients in morphological remission on a day 28 marrow, the event-free survival rate was found to be significantly lower in patients with positive minimal residual disease on day 28. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that the detection of minimal residual disease on day 28 is the most significant prognostic factor. Conclusions This simplified strategy for detection of minimal residual disease was feasible, reproducible, cheaper and simpler when compared with other methods, and allowed powerful discrimination between children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia with a good and poor outcome.
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Chagas disease, caused by infection with Trypanosoma cruzi, is an important cause of cardiovascular disease. It is increasingly clear that parasite-derived prostaglandins potently modulate host response and disease progression. Here, we report that treatment of experimental T. cruzi infection (Brazil strain) beginning 5 days post infection (dpi) with aspirin (ASA) increased mortality (2-fold) and parasitemia (12-fold). However, there were no differences regarding histopathology or cardiac structure or function. Delayed treatment with ASA (20 mg/kg) beginning 60 dpi did not increase parasitemia or mortality but improved ejection fraction. ASA treatment diminished the profile of parasite-and host-derived circulating prostaglandins in infected mice. To distinguish the effects of ASA on the parasite and host bio-synthetic pathways we infected cyclooxygenase-1 (COX-1) null mice with the Brazil-strain of T. cruzi. Infected COX-1 null mice displayed a reduction in circulating levels of thromboxane (TX)A(2) and prostaglandin (PG)F(2 alpha). Parasitemia was increased in COX-1 null mice compared with parasitemia and mortality in ASA-treated infected mice indicating the effects of ASA on mortality potentially had little to do with inhibition of prostaglandin metabolism. Expression of SOCS-2 was enhanced, and TRAF6 and TNF alpha reduced, in the spleens of infected ASA-treated mice. Ablation of the initial innate response to infection may cause the increased mortality in ASA-treated mice as the host likely succumbs more quickly without the initiation of the ""cytokine storm'' during acute infection. We conclude that ASA, through both COX inhibition and other ""off-target'' effects, modulates the progression of acute and chronic Chagas disease. Thus, eicosanoids present during acute infection may act as immunomodulators aiding the transition to and maintenance of the chronic phase of the disease. A deeper understanding of the mechanism of ASA action may provide clues to the differences between host response in the acute and chronic T. cruzi infection.
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Background The Western diet plays a role for the epidemics of obesity and related diseases. This study examined a possible association between peripheral arterial disease (PAD) and the dietary components of Japanese immigrants living in Brazil. Methods and Results In this cross-sectional study, 1,267 subjects (aged 30 years) with complete dietary, clinical and laboratory data were studied according to a standardized protocol. Ankle-to-brachial index was used to identify subjects with PAD. The overall prevalence of PAD was 14.6%. Subjects with PAD were older, had lower education and higher mean values of blood pressure, triglycerides, and fasting and 2-h plasma glucose levels compared with those without the disease. Among the subjects with PAD, the consumption of fiber from whole grains (3.0 vs 3.4g, p=0.001) and linoleic acids (11.0 vs 11.7g, p=0.017) were lower and intake of total (72.8 vs 69.1 a, p=0.016) and saturated fatty acids (17.4 vs 16.3g, p=0.012) were higher than those without PAD. Results of multiple logistic regression analysis showed a significant association between PAD with high total fat intake, low intake of fiber from fruit and oleic acid, independently of other variables. Conclusions Despite limitations in examining the cause-effect relationship, the data support the notion that diet could be important in reducing the occurrence of PAD.
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We introduce the Coupled Aerosol and Tracer Transport model to the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (CATT-BRAMS). CATT-BRAMS is an on-line transport model fully consistent with the simulated atmospheric dynamics. Emission sources from biomass burning and urban-industrial-vehicular activities for trace gases and from biomass burning aerosol particles are obtained from several published datasets and remote sensing information. The tracer and aerosol mass concentration prognostics include the effects of sub-grid scale turbulence in the planetary boundary layer, convective transport by shallow and deep moist convection, wet and dry deposition, and plume rise associated with vegetation fires in addition to the grid scale transport. The radiation parameterization takes into account the interaction between the simulated biomass burning aerosol particles and short and long wave radiation. The atmospheric model BRAMS is based on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), with several improvements associated with cumulus convection representation, soil moisture initialization and surface scheme tuned for the tropics, among others. In this paper the CATT-BRAMS model is used to simulate carbon monoxide and particulate material (PM(2.5)) surface fluxes and atmospheric transport during the 2002 LBA field campaigns, conducted during the transition from the dry to wet season in the southwest Amazon Basin. Model evaluation is addressed with comparisons between model results and near surface, radiosondes and airborne measurements performed during the field campaign, as well as remote sensing derived products. We show the matching of emissions strengths to observed carbon monoxide in the LBA campaign. A relatively good comparison to the MOPITT data, in spite of the fact that MOPITT a priori assumptions imply several difficulties, is also obtained.
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Several experimental studies have altered the phase relationship between photic and non-photic environmental, 24 h cycles (zeitgebers) in order to assess their role in the synchronization of circadian rhythms. To assist in the interpretation of the complex activity patterns that emerge from these ""conflicting zeitgeber'' protocols, we present computer simulations of coupled circadian oscillators forced by two independent zeitgebers. This circadian system configuration was first employed by Pittendrigh and Bruce (1959), to model their studies of the light and temperature entrainment of the eclosion oscillator in Drosophila. Whereas most of the recent experiments have restricted conflicting zeitgeber experiments to two experimental conditions, by comparing circadian oscillator phases under two distinct phase relationships between zeitgebers (usually 0 and 12 h), Pittendrigh and Bruce compared eclosion phase under 12 distinct phase relationships, spanning the 24 h interval. Our simulations using non-linear differential equations replicated complex non-linear phenomena, such as ""phase jumps'' and sudden switches in zeitgeber preferences, which had previously been difficult to interpret. Our simulations reveal that these phenomena generally arise when inter-oscillator coupling is high in relation to the zeitgeber strength. Manipulations in the structural symmetry of the model indicated that these results can be expected to apply to a wide range of system configurations. Finally, our studies recommend the use of the complete protocol employed by Pittendrigh and Bruce, because different system configurations can generate similar results when a ""conflicting zeitgeber experiment'' incorporates only two phase relationships between zeitgebers.
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Complicated patterns showing various spatial scales have been obtained in the past by coupling Turing systems in such a way that the scales of the independent systems resonate. This produces superimposed patterns with different length scales. Here we propose a model consisting of two identical reaction-diffusion systems coupled together in such a way that one of them produces a simple Turing pattern of spots or stripes, and the other traveling wave fronts that eventually become stationary. The basic idea is to assume that one of the systems becomes fixed after some time and serves as a source of morphogens for the other system. This mechanism produces patterns very similar to the pigmentation patterns observed in different species of stingrays and other fishes. The biological mechanisms that support the realization of this model are discussed.
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BACKGROUND: Traditionally, epidemiologists have considered electrification to be a positive factor. In fact, electrification and plumbing are typical initiatives that represent the integration of an isolated population into modern society, ensuring the control of pathogens and promoting public health. Nonetheless, electrification is always accompanied by night lighting that attracts insect vectors and changes people's behavior. Although this may lead to new modes of infection and increased transmission of insect-borne diseases, epidemiologists rarely consider the role of night lighting in their surveys. OBJECTIVE: We reviewed the epidemiological evidence concerning the role of lighting in the spread of vector-borne diseases to encourage other researchers to consider it in future studies. DISCUSSION: We present three infectious vector-borne diseases-Chagas, leishmaniasis, and malaria-and discuss evidence that suggests that the use of artificial lighting results in behavioral changes among human populations and changes in the prevalence of vector species and in the modes of transmission. CONCLUSION: Despite a surprising lack of studies, existing evidence supports our hypothesis that artificial lighting leads to a higher risk of infection from vector-borne diseases. We believe that this is related not only to the simple attraction of traditional vectors to light sources but also to changes in the behavior of both humans and insects that result in new modes of disease transmission. Considering the ongoing expansion of night lighting in developing countries, additional research on this subject is urgently needed.
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We describe an estimation technique for biomass burning emissions in South America based on a combination of remote-sensing fire products and field observations, the Brazilian Biomass Burning Emission Model (3BEM). For each fire pixel detected by remote sensing, the mass of the emitted tracer is calculated based on field observations of fire properties related to the type of vegetation burning. The burnt area is estimated from the instantaneous fire size retrieved by remote sensing, when available, or from statistical properties of the burn scars. The sources are then spatially and temporally distributed and assimilated daily by the Coupled Aerosol and Tracer Transport model to the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (CATT-BRAMS) in order to perform the prognosis of related tracer concentrations. Three other biomass burning inventories, including GFEDv2 and EDGAR, are simultaneously used to compare the emission strength in terms of the resultant tracer distribution. We also assess the effect of using the daily time resolution of fire emissions by including runs with monthly-averaged emissions. We evaluate the performance of the model using the different emission estimation techniques by comparing the model results with direct measurements of carbon monoxide both near-surface and airborne, as well as remote sensing derived products. The model results obtained using the 3BEM methodology of estimation introduced in this paper show relatively good agreement with the direct measurements and MOPITT data product, suggesting the reliability of the model at local to regional scales.
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Atmospheric aerosol particles serving as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) are key elements of the hydrological cycle and climate. We have measured and characterized CCN at water vapor supersaturations in the range of S=0.10-0.82% in pristine tropical rainforest air during the AMAZE-08 campaign in central Amazonia. The effective hygroscopicity parameters describing the influence of chemical composition on the CCN activity of aerosol particles varied in the range of kappa approximate to 0.1-0.4 (0.16+/-0.06 arithmetic mean and standard deviation). The overall median value of kappa approximate to 0.15 was by a factor of two lower than the values typically observed for continental aerosols in other regions of the world. Aitken mode particles were less hygroscopic than accumulation mode particles (kappa approximate to 0.1 at D approximate to 50 nm; kappa approximate to 0.2 at D approximate to 200 nm), which is in agreement with earlier hygroscopicity tandem differential mobility analyzer (H-TDMA) studies. The CCN measurement results are consistent with aerosol mass spectrometry (AMS) data, showing that the organic mass fraction (f(org)) was on average as high as similar to 90% in the Aitken mode (D <= 100 nm) and decreased with increasing particle diameter in the accumulation mode (similar to 80% at D approximate to 200 nm). The kappa values exhibited a negative linear correlation with f(org) (R(2)=0.81), and extrapolation yielded the following effective hygroscopicity parameters for organic and inorganic particle components: kappa(org)approximate to 0.1 which can be regarded as the effective hygroscopicity of biogenic secondary organic aerosol (SOA) and kappa(inorg)approximate to 0.6 which is characteristic for ammonium sulfate and related salts. Both the size dependence and the temporal variability of effective particle hygroscopicity could be parameterized as a function of AMS-based organic and inorganic mass fractions (kappa(p)=kappa(org) x f(org)+kappa(inorg) x f(inorg)). The CCN number concentrations predicted with kappa(p) were in fair agreement with the measurement results (similar to 20% average deviation). The median CCN number concentrations at S=0.1-0.82% ranged from N(CCN,0.10)approximate to 35 cm(-3) to N(CCN,0.82)approximate to 160 cm(-3), the median concentration of aerosol particles larger than 30 nm was N(CN,30)approximate to 200 cm(-3), and the corresponding integral CCN efficiencies were in the range of N(CCN,0.10/NCN,30)approximate to 0.1 to N(CCN,0.82/NCN,30)approximate to 0.8. Although the number concentrations and hygroscopicity parameters were much lower in pristine rainforest air, the integral CCN efficiencies observed were similar to those in highly polluted megacity air. Moreover, model calculations of N(CCN,S) assuming an approximate global average value of kappa approximate to 0.3 for continental aerosols led to systematic overpredictions, but the average deviations exceeded similar to 50% only at low water vapor supersaturation (0.1%) and low particle number concentrations (<= 100 cm(-3)). Model calculations assuming aconstant aerosol size distribution led to higher average deviations at all investigated levels of supersaturation: similar to 60% for the campaign average distribution and similar to 1600% for a generic remote continental size distribution. These findings confirm earlier studies suggesting that aerosol particle number and size are the major predictors for the variability of the CCN concentration in continental boundary layer air, followed by particle composition and hygroscopicity as relatively minor modulators. Depending on the required and applicable level of detail, the information and parameterizations presented in this paper should enable efficient description of the CCN properties of pristine tropical rainforest aerosols of Amazonia in detailed process models as well as in large-scale atmospheric and climate models.
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The band-edge optical absorption in EuTe is studied in the framework of the 5d conduction band atomic model. Both relaxed antiferromagnetic order, and ferromagnetic order induced by an external magnetic field, were analyzed. For ferromagnetic arrangement, the absorption is characterized by a hugely dichroic doublet of narrow lines. In the antiferromagnetic order, the spectrum is blueshifted, becomes much broader and weaker, and dichroism is suppressed. These results are in excellent qualitative and quantitative agreement with experimental observations on EuTe and EuSe published by us previously [Phys. Rev. B 72, 155337 (2005)]. The possibility of inducing ferromagnetic order by illuminating the material at photon energies resonant with the band gap is also discussed.
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A thermodynamic approach is presented to model devices manufactured with cellular polymers. They are heterogeneous nonpolar space-charge electrets that exhibit much higher piezoelectricity than the well-known ferroelectric polymers. Their pyroelectric and piezoelectric properties are characterized by adequate coefficients which quantify the performance of devices manufactured with those materials. The method presented in this contribution to calculate those coefficients is exact and consistent avoiding ad hoc simplifications introduced in other approaches. The results obtained by this method allow drawing conclusions regarding device optimization.