Estimating the number of ozone peaks in Mexico City using a non-homogeneous Poisson model

In this paper, we consider the problem of estimating the number of times an air quality standard is exceeded in a given period of time. A non-homogeneous Poisson model is proposed to analyse this issue. The rate at which the Poisson events occur is given by a rate function lambda(t), t >= 0. This rate function also depends on some parameters that need to be estimated. Two forms of lambda(t), t >= 0 are considered. One of them is of the Weibull form and the other is of the exponentiated-Weibull form. The parameters estimation is made using a Bayesian formulation based on the Gibbs sampling algorithm. The assignation of the prior distributions for the parameters is made in two stages. In the first stage, non-informative prior distributions are considered. Using the information provided by the first stage, more informative prior distributions are used in the second one. The theoretical development is applied to data provided by the monitoring network of Mexico City. The rate function that best fit the data varies according to the region of the city and/or threshold that is considered. In some cases the best fit is the Weibull form and in other cases the best option is the exponentiated-Weibull. Copyright (C) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Using stochastic volatility models to analyse weekly ozone averages in Mexico City

In this paper we make use of some stochastic volatility models to analyse the behaviour of a weekly ozone average measurements series. The models considered here have been used previously in problems related to financial time series. Two models are considered and their parameters are estimated using a Bayesian approach based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Both models are applied to the data provided by the monitoring network of the Metropolitan Area of Mexico City. The selection of the best model for that specific data set is performed using the Deviance Information Criterion and the Conditional Predictive Ordinate method.

Predator-prey models: an application for the plankton dynamics of lake Geneva

In this paper we present a hierarchical Bayesian analysis for a predator-prey model applied to ecology considering the use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. We consider the introduction of a random effect in the model and the presence of a covariate vector. An application to ecology is considered using a data set related to the plankton dynamics of lake Geneva for the year 1990. We also discuss some aspects of discrimination of the proposed models.

Study of environmental burden of lead in children using teeth as bioindicator

The south region of Sao Paulo city hosts the Guarapiranga dam, responsible for water supply to 25% of the city population. Their surroundings have been subject to intense and irregular occupation by people from very low socioeconomics classes. Measurements undertaken on sediment and particulate materials in the dam revealed concentrations of lead. copper, zinc and cadmium above internationally accepted limits. Epidemiological and toxicological studies undertaken by the World Health Organization in individuals exhibiting lead concentrations in blood, near or below the maximum recommended (10 mu g dl(-1)), surprisingly revealed that toxic effects are more intense in individuals belonging to low socioeconomics classes. Motivated by these facts, we aimed at the investigation of chronic incorporation of lead. as well as the use of our BIOKINETICS code, which is based on an accepted ICRP biokinetics model for lead, in order to extrapolate the results from teeth to other organs. The focus of our data taking was children from poor families, living in a small, restrict and allegedly contaminated area in Sao Paulo city. Thus, a total of 74 human teeth were collected. The average concentration of lead in teeth of children 5 to 10 years old was determined by means of a high-resolution inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometer (ICP-MS). For standardization of the measurements, an animal bone certified material (H-Animal Bone), from the International Atomic Energy Agency, was analyzed. The amount of lead in children living in the surroundings of the dam, was approximately 40% higher than those from the control region, and the average lead concentration was equal to 1.3 mu g g(-1) approximately. Grouping the results in terms of gender, tooth type and condition, it was concluded that a carious molar of boys is a much more efficient contamination pathway for lead, resulting in concentrations 70% higher than in the control region. We also inferred the average concentrations of lead in other organs of these children, by making use of our BIOKINETIC code. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Characterization of organic matter in sediment cores of the Todos os Santos Bay, Bahia, Brazil, by elemental analysis and (13)C NMR

The impact of human activity on the sediments of Todos os Santos Bay in Brazil was evaluated by elemental analysis and (13)C Nuclear Magnetic Resonance ((13)C NMR). This article reports a study of six sediment cores collected at different depths and regions of Todos os Santos Bay. The elemental profiles of cores collected on the eastern side of Frades Island suggest an abrupt change in the sedimentation regime. Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) analysis corroborates this result. The range of depths of the cores corresponds to about 50 years ago, coinciding with the implantation of major onshore industrial projects in the region. Principal Component Analysis of the (13)C NMR spectra clearly differentiates sediment samples closer to the Subae estuary, which have high contents of terrestrial organic matter, from those closer to a local oil refinery. The results presented in this article illustrate several important aspects of environmental impact of human activity on this bay. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bimodal extension based on the skew-normal distribution with application to pollen data

This paper considers an extension to the skew-normal model through the inclusion of an additional parameter which can lead to both uni- and bi-modal distributions. The paper presents various basic properties of this family of distributions and provides a stochastic representation which is useful for obtaining theoretical properties and to simulate from the distribution. Moreover, the singularity of the Fisher information matrix is investigated and maximum likelihood estimation for a random sample with no covariates is considered. The main motivation is thus to avoid using mixtures in fitting bimodal data as these are well known to be complicated to deal with, particularly because of identifiability problems. Data-based illustrations show that such model can be useful. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Generalized Birnbaum-Saunders distributions applied to air pollutant concentration

The generalized Birnbaum-Saunders (GBS) distribution is a new class of positively skewed models with lighter and heavier tails than the traditional Birnbaum-Saunders (BS) distribution, which is largely applied to study lifetimes. However, the theoretical argument and the interesting properties of the GBS model have made its application possible beyond the lifetime analysis. The aim of this paper is to present the GBS distribution as a useful model for describing pollution data and deriving its positive and negative moments. Based on these moments, we develop estimation and goodness-of-fit methods. Also, some properties of the proposed estimators useful for developing asymptotic inference are presented. Finally, an application with real data from Environmental Sciences is given to illustrate the methodology developed. This example shows that the empirical fit of the GBS distribution to the data is very good. Thus, the GBS model is appropriate for describing air pollutant concentration data, which produces better results than the lognormal model when the administrative target is determined for abating air pollution. Copyright (c) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A preliminary characterization of the mutagenicity of atmospheric particulate matter collected during sugar cane harvesting using the Salmonella/microsome microsuspension assay

During sugar cane harvesting season, which occurs from May to November of each year, the crops are burnt, cut, and transported to the mills. There are reports showing that mutagenic activity and PAH content increase during harvesting season in some areas of Sao Paulo State in comparison with nonharvesting periods. The objective of this work was to preliminarily characterize the mutagenic activity of the total organic extracts as well as corresponding organic fractions of airborne particulate matter (PM) collected twice from two cities, Araraquara (ARQ) and Piracicaba (PRB), during sugar cane harvesting season using the Salmonella/microsome microssuspension assay. One sample collected in Sao Paulo metropolitan area was also included. The mutagenicity of the total extracts ranged from 55 to 320 revertants per cubic meter without the addition of S9 and from not detected to 57 revertants per cubic meter in the presence of S9 in areas with sugar cane plantations. Of the three fractions analyzed, the most polar ones (nitro and oxy) were the most potent. A comparison of the response of TA98 with YG1041 and the increased potencies without S9 indicated that nitro compounds are causing the observed effect. More studies are necessary to verify the sources of the mutagenic activity such as burning of vegetal biomass and combustion of heavy duty vehicles used to transport the sugar cane to the mills. The Salmonella/microsome assay can be an important tool to monitor the atmosphere for mutagenicity during sugar cane harvesting season.

Phylogenetic placement of the enigmatic parasite, Polypodium hydriforme, within the Phylum Cnidaria

Background: Polypodium hydriforme is a parasite with an unusual life cycle and peculiar morphology, both of which have made its systematic position uncertain. Polypodium has traditionally been considered a cnidarian because it possesses nematocysts, the stinging structures characteristic of this phylum. However, recent molecular phylogenetic studies using 18S rDNA sequence data have challenged this interpretation, and have shown that Polypodium is a close relative to myxozoans and together they share a closer affinity to bilaterians than cnidarians. Due to the variable rates of 18S rDNA sequences, these results have been suggested to be an artifact of long-branch attraction ( LBA). A recent study, using multiple protein coding markers, shows that the myxozoan Buddenbrockia, is nested within cnidarians. Polypodium was not included in this study. To further investigate the phylogenetic placement of Polypodium, we have performed phylogenetic analyses of metazoans with 18S and partial 28S rDNA sequences in a large dataset that includes Polypodium and a comprehensive sampling of cnidarian taxa. Results: Analyses of a combined dataset of 18S and partial 28S sequences, and partial 28S alone, support the placement of Polypodium within Cnidaria. Removal of the long-branched myxozoans from the 18S dataset also results in Polypodium being nested within Cnidaria. These results suggest that previous reports showing that Polypodium and Myxozoa form a sister group to Bilateria were an artifact of long-branch attraction. Conclusion: By including 28S rDNA sequences and a comprehensive sampling of cnidarian taxa, we demonstrate that previously conflicting hypotheses concerning the phylogenetic placement of Polypodium can be reconciled. Specifically, the data presented provide evidence that Polypodium is indeed a cnidarian and is either the sister taxon to Hydrozoa, or part of the hydrozoan clade, Leptothecata. The former hypothesis is consistent with the traditional view that Polypodium should be placed in its own cnidarian class, Polypodiozoa.

Carbon Stocks and Isotopic Composition of the Organic Matter in Soils Covered by Native Vegetation and Pasture in Sorocaba, SP, Brazil

Land cover change constitutes one of main way of alteration of soil organic matter in both quantitative and qualitative terms. The goal of this study was to compare the carbon stock and the isotopic signature of the organic matter in the soil of areas with different land use,covered with forest and grass (pasture). The study area is located at Sorocaba, SP, Brazil. Using un-deformed soil samples, we measured the carbon content and bulk density. The isotopic signature of soil carbon was determined through the analysis of isotopic ratio (12)C/(13)C. The pasture soil stocks 48% less carbon than the soil covered by natural forest. The isotopic signature indicated that 42.2% of organic matter of the soil covered by pasture is originated from grasses. This characterizes a highly degradation of organic matter in the environment, both quantitatively and qualitatively. Hence, some guidelines of recuperation are described in order to restore the soil organic matter, structure and porosity.

Morphometric and genetic changes in a population of Apis mellifera after 34 years of Africanization

Though the replacement of European bees by Africanized honey bees in tropical America has attracted considerable attention, little is known about the temporal changes in morphological and genetic characteristics in these bee populations. We examined the changes in the morphometric and genetic profiles of an Africanized honey bee population collected near where the original African swarms escaped, after 34 years of Africanization. Workers from colonies sampled in 1968 and in 2002 were morphometrically analyzed using relative warps analysis and an Automatic Bee Identification System (ABIS). All the colonies had their mitochondrial DNA identified. The subspecies that mixed to form the Africanized honey bees were used as a comparison for the morphometric analysis. The two morphometric approaches showed great similarity of Africanized bees with the African subspecies, Apis mellifera scutellata, corroborating with other markers. We also found the population of 1968 to have the pattern of wing venation to be more similar to A. m. scutellata than the current population. The mitochondrial DNA of European origin, which was very common in the 1968 population, was not found in the current population, indicating selective pressure replacing the European with the African genome in this tropical region. Both morphometric methodologies were very effective in discriminating the A. mellifera groups; the non-linear analysis of ABIS was the most successful in identifying the bees, with more than 94% correct classifications.

Africanized honey bees are efficient at detecting, uncapping and removing dead brood

The hygienic behavior of honey bees is based on a two-step process, including uncapping and removing diseased, dead, damaged, or parasitized brood inside the cell. We evaluated during periods of 1 h the time that hygienic and non-hygienic colonies of Africanized honey bees spend to detect, uncap and remove pin-killed brood using comb inserts with transparent walls placed in observation hives. We observed that hygienic colonies are significantly faster in detecting, uncapping and removing dead brood in the cells (P < 0.001).

Gender identification of five genera of stingless bees (Apidae, Meliponini) based on wing morphology

Currently, the identification of pollinators is a critical necessity of conservation programs. After it was found that features extracted from patterns of wing venation are sufficient to discriminate among insect species, various studies have focused on this structure. We examined wing venation patterns of males and workers of five stingless bee species in order to determine if there are differences between sexes and if these differences are greater within than between species. Geometric morphometric analyses were made of the forewings of males and workers of Nannotrigona testaceicornis, Melipona quadrifasciata, Frieseomelitta varia, and Scaptotrigona aff. depilis and Plebeia remota. The patterns of males and workers from the same species were more similar than the patterns of individuals of the same sex from different species, and the patterns of both males and workers, when analyzed alone, were sufficiently different to distinguish among these five species. This demonstrates that we can use this kind of analysis for the identification of stingless bee species and that the sex of the individual does not impede identification. Computer-assisted morphometric analysis of bee wing images can be a useful tool for biodiversity studies and conservation programs.

The full Bayesian significance test for mixture models: results in gene expression clustering

Gene clustering is a useful exploratory technique to group together genes with similar expression levels under distinct cell cycle phases or distinct conditions. It helps the biologist to identify potentially meaningful relationships between genes. In this study, we propose a clustering method based on multivariate normal mixture models, where the number of clusters is predicted via sequential hypothesis tests: at each step, the method considers a mixture model of m components (m = 2 in the first step) and tests if in fact it should be m - 1. If the hypothesis is rejected, m is increased and a new test is carried out. The method continues (increasing m) until the hypothesis is accepted. The theoretical core of the method is the full Bayesian significance test, an intuitive Bayesian approach, which needs no model complexity penalization nor positive probabilities for sharp hypotheses. Numerical experiments were based on a cDNA microarray dataset consisting of expression levels of 205 genes belonging to four functional categories, for 10 distinct strains of Saccharomyces cerevisiae. To analyze the method's sensitivity to data dimension, we performed principal components analysis on the original dataset and predicted the number of classes using 2 to 10 principal components. Compared to Mclust (model-based clustering), our method shows more consistent results.

Gene expression profile of the plant pathogen Fusarium graminearum under the antagonistic effect of Pantoea agglomerans

The pathogenic fungus Fusarium graminearum is an ongoing threat to agriculture, causing losses in grain yield and quality in diverse crops. Substantial progress has been made in the identification of genes involved in the suppression of phytopathogens by antagonistic microorganisms; however, limited information regarding responses of plant pathogens to these biocontrol agents is available. Gene expression analysis was used to identify differentially expressed transcripts of the fungal plant pathogen F. graminearum under antagonistic effect of the bacterium Pantoea agglomerans. A macroarray was constructed, using 1014 transcripts from an F. graminearum cDNA library. Probes consisted of the cDNA of F. graminearum grown in the presence and in the absence of P. agglomerans. Twenty-nine genes were either up (19) or down (10) regulated during interaction with the antagonist bacterium. Genes encoding proteins associated with fungal defense and/or virulence or with nutritional and oxidative stress responses were induced. The repressed genes coded for a zinc finger protein associated with cell division, proteins containing cellular signaling domains, respiratory chain proteins, and chaperone-type proteins. These data give molecular and biochemical evidence of response of F. graminearum to an antagonist and could help develop effective biocontrol procedures for pathogenic plant fungi.