The random barrier-crossing problem

This paper addresses the time-variant reliability analysis of structures with random resistance or random system parameters. It deals with the problem of a random load process crossing a random barrier level. The implications of approximating the arrival rate of the first overload by an ensemble-crossing rate are studied. The error involved in this so-called ""ensemble-crossing rate"" approximation is described in terms of load process and barrier distribution parameters, and in terms of the number of load cycles. Existing results are reviewed, and significant improvements involving load process bandwidth, mean-crossing frequency and time are presented. The paper shows that the ensemble-crossing rate approximation can be accurate enough for problems where load process variance is large in comparison to barrier variance, but especially when the number of load cycles is small. This includes important practical applications like random vibration due to impact loadings and earthquake loading. Two application examples are presented, one involving earthquake loading and one involving a frame structure subject to wind and snow loadings. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A reference business process for ecological niche modelling

Ecological niche modelling combines species occurrence points with environmental raster layers in order to obtain models for describing the probabilistic distribution of species. The process to generate an ecological niche model is complex. It requires dealing with a large amount of data, use of different software packages for data conversion, for model generation and for different types of processing and analyses, among other functionalities. A software platform that integrates all requirements under a single and seamless interface would be very helpful for users. Furthermore, since biodiversity modelling is constantly evolving, new requirements are constantly being added in terms of functions, algorithms and data formats. This evolution must be accompanied by any software intended to be used in this area. In this scenario, a Service-Oriented Architecture (SOA) is an appropriate choice for designing such systems. According to SOA best practices and methodologies, the design of a reference business process must be performed prior to the architecture definition. The purpose is to understand the complexities of the process (business process in this context refers to the ecological niche modelling problem) and to design an architecture able to offer a comprehensive solution, called a reference architecture, that can be further detailed when implementing specific systems. This paper presents a reference business process for ecological niche modelling, as part of a major work focused on the definition of a reference architecture based on SOA concepts that will be used to evolve the openModeller software package for species modelling. The basic steps that are performed while developing a model are described, highlighting important aspects, based on the knowledge of modelling experts. In order to illustrate the steps defined for the process, an experiment was developed, modelling the distribution of Ouratea spectabilis (Mart.) Engl. (Ochnaceae) using openModeller. As a consequence of the knowledge gained with this work, many desirable improvements on the modelling software packages have been identified and are presented. Also, a discussion on the potential for large-scale experimentation in ecological niche modelling is provided, highlighting opportunities for research. The results obtained are very important for those involved in the development of modelling tools and systems, for requirement analysis and to provide insight on new features and trends for this category of systems. They can also be very helpful for beginners in modelling research, who can use the process and the experiment example as a guide to this complex activity. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Placement over containers with fixed dimensions solved with adaptive neighborhood simulated annealing

This work deals with the problem of minimizing the waste of space that occurs on a rotational placement of a set of irregular bi-dimensional items inside a bi-dimensional container. This problem is approached with a heuristic based on Simulated Annealing (SA) with adaptive neighborhood. The objective function is evaluated in a constructive approach, where the items are placed sequentially. The placement is governed by three different types of parameters: sequence of placement, the rotation angle and the translation. The rotation applied and the translation of the polygon are cyclic continuous parameters, and the sequence of placement defines a combinatorial problem. This way, it is necessary to control cyclic continuous and discrete parameters. The approaches described in the literature deal with only type of parameter (sequence of placement or translation). In the proposed SA algorithm, the sensibility of each continuous parameter is evaluated at each iteration increasing the number of accepted solutions. The sensibility of each parameter is associated to its probability distribution in the definition of the next candidate.

Diagnostic errors and repetitive sequential classifications in on-line process control by attributes

The procedure of on-line process control by attributes, known as Taguchi`s on-line process control, consists of inspecting the mth item (a single item) at every m produced items and deciding, at each inspection, whether the fraction of conforming items was reduced or not. If the inspected item is nonconforming, the production is stopped for adjustment. As the inspection system can be subject to diagnosis errors, one develops a probabilistic model that classifies repeatedly the examined item until a conforming or b non-conforming classification is observed. The first event that occurs (a conforming classifications or b non-conforming classifications) determines the final classification of the examined item. Proprieties of an ergodic Markov chain were used to get the expression of average cost of the system of control, which can be optimized by three parameters: the sampling interval of the inspections (m); the number of repeated conforming classifications (a); and the number of repeated non-conforming classifications (b). The optimum design is compared with two alternative approaches: the first one consists of a simple preventive policy. The production system is adjusted at every n produced items (no inspection is performed). The second classifies the examined item repeatedly r (fixed) times and considers it conforming if most classification results are conforming. Results indicate that the current proposal performs better than the procedure that fixes the number of repeated classifications and classifies the examined item as conforming if most classifications were conforming. On the other hand, the preventive policy can be averagely the most economical alternative rather than those ones that require inspection depending on the degree of errors and costs. A numerical example illustrates the proposed procedure. (C) 2009 Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.

A vaccination game based on public health actions and personal decisions

Susceptible-infective-removed (SIR) models are commonly used for representing the spread of contagious diseases. A SIR model can be described in terms of a probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA), where each individual (corresponding to a cell of the PCA lattice) is connected to others by a random network favoring local contacts. Here, this framework is employed for investigating the consequences of applying vaccine against the propagation of a contagious infection, by considering vaccination as a game, in the sense of game theory. In this game, the players are the government and the susceptible newborns. In order to maximize their own payoffs, the government attempts to reduce the costs for combating the epidemic, and the newborns may be vaccinated only when infective individuals are found in their neighborhoods and/or the government promotes an immunization program. As a consequence of these strategies supported by cost-benefit analysis and perceived risk, numerical simulations show that the disease is not fully eliminated and the government implements quasi-periodic vaccination campaigns. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Who should wear mask against airborne infections? Altering the contact network for controlling the spread of contagious diseases

There are several ways of controlling the propagation of a contagious disease. For instance, to reduce the spreading of an airborne infection, individuals can be encouraged to remain in their homes and/or to wear face masks outside their domiciles. However, when a limited amount of masks is available, who should use them: the susceptible subjects, the infective persons or both populations? Here we employ susceptible-infective-recovered (SIR) models described in terms of ordinary differential equations and probabilistic cellular automata in order to investigate how the deletion of links in the random complex network representing the social contacts among individuals affects the dynamics of a contagious disease. The inspiration for this study comes from recent discussions about the impact of measures usually recommended by health public organizations for preventing the propagation of the swine influenza A (H1N1) virus. Our answer to this question can be valid for other eco-epidemiological systems. (C) 2010 Elsevier BM. All rights reserved.

On the basic reproduction number and the topological properties of the contact network: An epidemiological study in mainly locally connected cellular automata

We study the spreading of contagious diseases in a population of constant size using susceptible-infective-recovered (SIR) models described in terms of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) and probabilistic cellular automata (PCA). In the PCA model, each individual (represented by a cell in the lattice) is mainly locally connected to others. We investigate how the topological properties of the random network representing contacts among individuals influence the transient behavior and the permanent regime of the epidemiological system described by ODE and PCA. Our main conclusions are: (1) the basic reproduction number (commonly called R(0)) related to a disease propagation in a population cannot be uniquely determined from some features of transient behavior of the infective group; (2) R(0) cannot be associated to a unique combination of clustering coefficient and average shortest path length characterizing the contact network. We discuss how these results can embarrass the specification of control strategies for combating disease propagations. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Economic design of an X chart for short-run production

The aim of this paper is to present an economical design of an X chart for a short-run production. The process mean starts equal to mu(0) (in-control, State I) and in a random time it shifts to mu(1) > mu(0) (out-of-control, State II). The monitoring procedure consists of inspecting a single item at every m produced ones. If the measurement of the quality characteristic does not meet the control limits, the process is stopped, adjusted, and additional (r - 1) items are inspected retrospectively. The probabilistic model was developed considering only shifts in the process mean. A direct search technique is applied to find the optimum parameters which minimizes the expected cost function. Numerical examples illustrate the proposed procedure. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Does management accounting play role in planning process?

This study examines the relationship between management accounting and planning profiles in Brazilian companies. The main goal is to understand the consequences of not including a fully structured management accounting scheme in the planning process. The authors conducted a field research among medium and large-sized companies, using a probabilistic sample from a population of 2281 companies. Using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and statistical cluster analysis, the authors grouped the entities` strategic budget planning processes into five profiles, after which the authors applied statistical tests to assess the five clusters. The study concludes that poor or fully implemented strategic and budget-planning processes relate to the management accounting profiles of the Brazilian organizations studied. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Assessment of factors that confound MRI and neuropathological correlation of human postmortem brain tissue

In spite of considerable technical advance in MRI techniques, the optical resolution of these methods are still limited. Consequently, the delineation of cytoarchitectonic fields based on probabilistic maps and brain volume changes, as well as small-scale changes seen in MRI scans need to be verified by neuronanatomical/neuropathological diagnostic tools. To attend the current interdisciplinary needs of the scientific community, brain banks have to broaden their scope in order to provide high quality tissue suitable for neuroimaging- neuropathology/anatomy correlation studies. The Brain Bank of the Brazilian Aging Brain Research Group (BBBABSG) of the University of Sao Paulo Medical School (USPMS) collaborates with researchers interested in neuroimaging-neuropathological correlation studies providing brains submitted to postmortem MRI in-situ. In this paper we describe and discuss the parameters established by the BBBABSG to select and to handle brains for fine-scale neuroimaging-neuropathological correlation studies, and to exclude inappropriate/unsuitable autopsy brains. We tried to assess the impact of the postmortem time and storage of the corpse on the quality of the MRI scans and to establish fixation protocols that are the most appropriate to these correlation studies. After investigation of a total of 36 brains, postmortem interval and low body temperature proved to be the main factors determining the quality of routine MRI protocols. Perfusion fixation of the brains after autopsy by mannitol 20% followed by formalin 20% was the best method for preserving the original brain shape and volume, and for allowing further routine and immunohistochemical staining. Taken to together, these parameters offer a methodological progress in screening and processing of human postmortem tissue in order to guarantee high quality material for unbiased correlation studies and to avoid expenditures by post-imaging analyses and histological processing of brain tissue.

Prevalence of cannabis use in Brazil: Data from the I Brazilian National Alcohol Survey (BNAS)

Aims: To estimate the prevalence of cannabis use in the last 12 months in the Brazilian population and to examine its association with individual and geographic characteristics. Design: Cross-sectional survey with a national probabilistic sample. Participants: 3006 individuals aged 14 to 65 years. Measurements: Questionnaire based on well established instruments, adapted to the Brazilian population. Findings: The 12-month prevalence of cannabis use was 2.1% (95%Cl 1.3-2.9). Male gender, better educational level, unemployment and living in the regions South and Southeast were independently associated with higher 12-month prevalence of cannabis use. Conclusion: While the prevalence of cannabis use in Brazil is lower than in many countries, the profile of those who are more likely to have used it is similar. Educational and prevention policies should be focused on specific population groups. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A practical approach to assess depression risk and to guide risk reduction strategies in later life

Background: Many factors have been associated with the onset and maintenance of depressive symptoms in later life, although this knowledge is yet to be translated into significant health gains for the population. This study gathered information about common modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors for depression with the aim of developing a practical probabilistic model of depression that can be used to guide risk reduction strategies. \Methods: A cross-sectional study was undertaken of 20,677 community-dwelling Australians aged 60 years or over in contact with their general practitioner during the preceding 12 months. Prevalent depression (minor or major) according to the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) assessment was the main outcome of interest. Other measured exposures included self-reported age, gender, education, loss of mother or father before age 15 years, physical or sexual abuse before age 15 years, marital status, financial stress, social support, smoking and alcohol use, physical activity, obesity, diabetes, hypertension, and prevalent cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases and cancer. Results: The mean age of participants was 71.7 +/- 7.6 years and 57.9% were women. Depression was present in 1665 (8.0%) of our subjects. Multivariate logistic regression showed depression was independently associated with age older than 75 years, childhood adverse experiences, adverse lifestyle practices (smoking, risk alcohol use, physical inactivity), intermediate health hazards (obesity, diabetes and hypertension), comorbid medical conditions (clinical history of coronary heart disease, stroke, asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, emphysema or cancers), and social or financial strain. We stratified the exposures to build a matrix that showed that the probability of depression increased progressively with the accumulation of risk factors, from less than 3% for those with no adverse factors to more than 80% for people reporting the maximum number of risk factors. Conclusions: Our probabilistic matrix can be used to estimate depression risk and to guide the introduction of risk reduction strategies. Future studies should now aim to clarify whether interventions designed to mitigate the impact of risk factors can change the prevalence and incidence of depression in later life.

Gambling in Brazil Lifetime prevalences and socio-demographic correlates

Gambling has experienced world-wide growth The current study is the first national survey into household gambling conducted in a developing country The sample was a three-stage probabilistic one designed to cover individuals 14 years old or older of both genders and from all regions of the national territory 325 census sectors were visited including rural areas DSM-IV-based instruments were used to assess problem and pathological gambling individuals were asked to estimate their monthly gambling expenditure The lifetime prevalences were pathological gambling 1 0% and problem gambling 1 3% Maximum gambling expenditure corresponded to 5 4% of the household income for social gamblers 16 9% for problem gamblers and 20 0% for pathological gamblers The male female ratio among adults for pathological gambling was 3 2 1 The data suggest the existence of two subgroups of pathological gamblers one younger (33 9 +/- 4 19) and severe (7 or more DSM-IV criteria) another older (47 8 +/- 6 01) and less severe (5-6 criteria) In a multinomial logistic regression problematic gambling was associated with gender age education employment region of origin and living in metropolitan areas The data suggest that feeling active and socially inserted protects against problematic gambling Individuals who are young male unemployed or not currently pursuing further education may be at special risk for severe pathological gambling (C) 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd All rights reserved

Consequences of Comorbid Sleep Apnea in the Metabolic Syndrome-Implications for Cardiovascular Risk

Study Objectives: Metabolic syndrome (MetSyn) increases overall cardiovascular risk. MetSyn is also strongly associated with obstructive sleep apnea (OSA), and these 2 conditions share similar comorbidities. Whether OSA increases cardiovascular risk in patients with the MetSyn has not been investigated. We examined how the presence of USA in patients with MetSyn affected hemodynamic and autonomic variables associated with poor cardiovascular outcome. Design: Prospective clinical study. Participants: We studied 36 patients with MetSyn (ATP-III) divided into 2 groups matched for age and sex: (1) MetSyn+OSA (n = 18) and (2) MetSyn-OSA (n = 18). Measurements: USA was defined by an apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) > 15 events/hour by polysomnography. We recorded muscle sympathetic nerve activity (MSNA - microneurography), heart rate (HR), and blood pressure (BP - Finapres). Baroreflex sensitivity (BRS) was analyzed by spontaneous BP and HR fluctuations. Results: MSNA (34 +/- 2 vs 28 +/- 1 bursts/min, P = 0.02) and mean BP (111 +/- 3 vs. 99 +/- 2 mm Hg, P = 0.003) were higher in patients with MetSyn+OSA versus patients with MetSyn-USA. Patients with MetSyn+OSA had lower spontaneous BRS for increases (7.6 +/- 0.6 vs 12.2 +/- 1.2 msec/mm Hg, P = 0.003) and decreases (7.2 +/- 0.6 vs 11.9 +/- 1.6 msec/mm Hg, P = 0.01) in BP. MSNA was correlated with AHI (r = 0.48; P = 0.009) and minimum nocturnal oxygen saturation (r = -0.38, P = 0.04). Conclusion: Patients with MetSyn and comorbid USA have higher BP, higher sympathetic drive, and diminished BRS, compared with patients with MetSyn without USA. These adverse cardiovascular and autonomic consequences of USA may be associated with poorer outcomes in these patients. Moreover, increased BP and sympathetic drive in patients with MetSyn+OSA may be linked, in part, to impairment of baroreflex gain.

Cost-Effectiveness of Palliation of Unresectable Esophageal Cancer

Introduction Different modalities of palliation for obstructive symptoms in patients with unresectable esophageal cancer (EC) exist. However, these therapeutic alternatives have significant differences in costs and effectiveness. Methods A Markov model was designed to compare the cost-effectiveness (CE) of self-expandable stent (SES), brachytherapy and laser in the palliation of unresectable EC. Patients were assigned to one of the strategies, and the improvement in swallowing function was compared given the treatment efficacy, probability of survival, and risks of complications associated to each strategy. Probabilities and parameters for distribution were based on a 9-month time frame. Results Under the base-case scenario, laser has the lowest CE ratio, followed by brachytherapy at an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $4,400.00, and SES is a dominated strategy. In the probabilistic analysis, laser is the strategy with the highest probability of cost-effectiveness for willingness to pay (WTP) values lower than $3,201 and brachytherapy for all WTP yielding a positive net health benefit (NHB) (threshold $4,440). The highest probability of cost-effectiveness for brachytherapy is 96%, and consequently, selection of suboptimal strategies can lead to opportunity losses for the US health system, ranging from US$ 4.32 to US$ 38.09 million dollars over the next 5-20 years. Conclusion Conditional to the WTP and current US Medicare costs, palliation of unresectable esophageal cancers with brachytherapy provides the largest amount of NHB and is the strategy with the highest probability of CE. However, some level of uncertainly remains, and wrong decisions will be made until further knowledge is acquired.