System Identification and Prediction of Dengue Fever Incidence in Rio de Janeiro

Identification, prediction, and control of a system are engineering subjects, regardless of the nature of the system. Here, the temporal evolution of the number of individuals with dengue fever weekly recorded in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, during 2007, is used to identify SIS (susceptible-infective-susceptible) and SIR (susceptible-infective-removed) models formulated in terms of cellular automaton (CA). In the identification process, a genetic algorithm (GA) is utilized to find the probabilities of the state transition S -> I able of reproducing in the CA lattice the historical series of 2007. These probabilities depend on the number of infective neighbors. Time-varying and non-time-varying probabilities, three different sizes of lattices, and two kinds of coupling topology among the cells are taken into consideration. Then, these epidemiological models built by combining CA and GA are employed for predicting the cases of sick persons in 2008. Such models can be useful for forecasting and controlling the spreading of this infectious disease.

QSAR Modeling of a Set of Pyrazinoate Esters as Antituberculosis Prodrugs

Tuberculosis is an infection caused mainly by Mycobacterium tuberculosis. A first-line antimycobacterial drug is pyrazinamide (PZA), which acts partially as a prodrug activated by a pyrazinamidase releasing the active agent, pyrazinoic acid (POA). As pyrazinoic acid presents some difficulty to cross the mycobacterial cell wall, and also the pyrazinamide-resistant strains do not express the pyrazinamidase, a set of pyrazinoic acid esters have been evaluated as antimycobacterial agents. In this work, a QSAR approach was applied to a set of forty-three pyrazinoates against M. tuberculosis ATCC 27294, using genetic algorithm function and partial least squares regression (WOLF 5.5 program). The independent variables selected were the Balaban index (I), calculated n-octanol/water partition coefficient (ClogP), van-der-Waals surface area, dipole moment, and stretching-energy contribution. The final QSAR model (N = 32, r(2) = 0.68, q(2) = 0.59, LOF = 0.25, and LSE = 0.19) was fully validated employing leave-N-out cross-validation and y-scrambling techniques. The test set (N = 11) presented an external prediction power of 73%. In conclusion, the QSAR model generated can be used as a valuable tool to optimize the activity of future pyrazinoic acid esters in the designing of new antituberculosis agents.

Molecular modeling and QSAR studies of a set of indole and benzimidazole derivatives as H(4) receptor antagonists

Histamine is an important biogenic amine, which acts with a group of four G-protein coupled receptors (GPCRs), namely H(1) to H(4) (H(1)R - H(4)R) receptors. The actions of histamine at H(4)R are related to immunological and inflammatory processes, particularly in pathophysiology of asthma, and H(4)R ligands having antagonistic properties could be helpful as antiinflammatory agents. In this work, molecular modeling and QSAR studies of a set of 30 compounds, indole and benzimidazole derivatives, as H(4)R antagonists were performed. The QSAR models were built and optimized using a genetic algorithm function and partial least squares regression (WOLF 5.5 program). The best QSAR model constructed with training set (N = 25) presented the following statistical measures: r (2) = 0.76, q (2) = 0.62, LOF = 0.15, and LSE = 0.07, and was validated using the LNO and y-randomization techniques. Four of five compounds of test set were well predicted by the selected QSAR model, which presented an external prediction power of 80%. These findings can be quite useful to aid the designing of new anti-H(4) compounds with improved biological response.

Quantification of chlorpheniramine maleate enantiomers by ultraviolet spectroscopy and chemometric methods

Chlorpheniramine maleate (CLOR) enantiomers were quantified by ultraviolet spectroscopy and partial least squares regression. The CLOR enantiomers were prepared as inclusion complexes with beta-cyclodextrin and 1-butanol with mole fractions in the range from 50 to 100%. For the multivariate calibration the outliers were detected and excluded and variable selection was performed by interval partial least squares and a genetic algorithm. Figures of merit showed results for accuracy of 3.63 and 2.83% (S)-CLOR for root mean square errors of calibration and prediction, respectively. The ellipse confidence region included the point for the intercept and the slope of 1 and 0, respectively. Precision and analytical sensitivity were 0.57 and 0.50% (S)-CLOR, respectively. The sensitivity, selectivity, adjustment, and signal-to-noise ratio were also determined. The model was validated by a paired t test with the results obtained by high-performance liquid chromatography proposed by the European pharmacopoeia and circular dichroism spectroscopy. The results showed there was no significant difference between the methods at the 95% confidence level, indicating that the proposed method can be used as an alternative to standard procedures for chiral analysis.

Nonlinear spectrum effect on the coherent control of molecular systems

This work demonstrates that the detuning of the fs-laser spectrum from the two-photon absorption band of organic materials can be used to reach further control of the two-photon absorption by pulse spectral phase manipulation. We investigate the coherent control of the two-photon absorption in imidazole-thiophene core compounds presenting distinct two-photon absorption spectra. The coherent control, performed using pulse phase shaping and genetic algorithm, exhibited different growth rates for each sample. Such distinct trends were explained by calculating the two-photon absorption probability considering the intrapulse interference mechanism, taking into account the two-photon absorption spectrum of the samples. Our results indicate that tuning the relative position between the nonlinear absorption and the pulse spectrum can be used as a novel strategy to optimize the two-photon absorption in broadband molecular systems. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

GOOAL: A routine based on Genetic Algorithms to track harmonics in electric power systems

Voltage and current waveforms of a distribution or transmission power system are not pure sinusoids. There are distortions in these waveforms that can be represented as a combination of the fundamental frequency, harmonics and high frequency transients. This paper presents a novel approach to identifying harmonics in power system distorted waveforms. The proposed method is based on Genetic Algorithms, which is an optimization technique inspired by genetics and natural evolution. GOOAL, a specially designed intelligent algorithm for optimization problems, was successfully implemented and tested. Two kinds of representations concerning chromosomes are utilized: binary and real. The results show that the proposed method is more precise than the traditional Fourier Transform, especially considering the real representation of the chromosomes.

Endophytic and pathogenic isolates of the cacao fungal pathogen Moniliophthora perniciosa (Tricholomataceae) are indistinguishable based on genetic and physiological analysis

We evaluated the genetic and physiological variability of Moniliophthora perniciosa obtained from healthy and diseased branches of cacao (Theobroma cacao) plants. The diversity of the isolates was evaluated by RAPD technique and by studies of virulence and exoenzyme production. The genetic variability of endophytic and pathogenic M. perniciosa was evaluated in association with pathogenicity assays. RAPD analysis showed eight genetic groups, which were not related to plant disease status (healthy versus diseased branches). Isolates from cacao were included in three groups, excluding isolates from other host plants. Pathogenicity and enzyme analysis showed that the virulence of the isolates is not related to exoenzyme production. This is the first evidence that M. perniciosa colonizes healthy parenchymatic tissues, showing that endophytic behavior may occur in this species.

Additive genetic relationship of longevity with fertility and production traits in Nellore cattle based on bivariate models

Survival or longevity is an economically important trait in beef cattle. The main inconvenience for its inclusion in selection criteria is delayed recording of phenotypic data and the high computational demand for including survival in proportional hazard models. Thus, identification of a longevity-correlated trait that could be recorded early in life would be very useful for selection purposes. We estimated the genetic relationship of survival with productive and reproductive traits in Nellore cattle, including weaning weight (WW), post-weaning growth (PWG), muscularity (MUSC), scrotal circumference at 18 months (SC18), and heifer pregnancy (HP). Survival was measured in discrete time intervals and modeled through a sequential threshold model. Five independent bivariate Bayesian analyses were performed, accounting for cow survival and the five productive and reproductive traits. Posterior mean estimates for heritability (standard deviation in parentheses) were 0.55 (0.01) for WW, 0.25 (0.01) for PWG, 0.23 (0.01) for MUSC, and 0.48 (0.01) for SC18. The posterior mean estimates (95% confidence interval in parentheses) for the genetic correlation with survival were 0.16 (0.13-0.19), 0.30 (0.25-0.34), 0.31 (0.25-0.36), 0.07 (0.02-0.12), and 0.82 (0.78-0.86) for WW, PWG, MUSC, SC18, and HP, respectively. Based on the high genetic correlation and heritability (0.54) posterior mean estimates for HP, the expected progeny difference for HP can be used to select bulls for longevity, as well as for post-weaning gain and muscle score.

Continental passive microwave-based rainfall estimation algorithm: Application to the Amazon Basin

This paper presents a new statistical algorithm to estimate rainfall over the Amazon Basin region using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI). The algorithm relies on empirical relationships derived for different raining-type systems between coincident measurements of surface rainfall rate and 85-GHz polarization-corrected brightness temperature as observed by the precipitation radar (PR) and TMI on board the TRMM satellite. The scheme includes rain/no-rain area delineation (screening) and system-type classification routines for rain retrieval. The algorithm is validated against independent measurements of the TRMM-PR and S-band dual-polarization Doppler radar (S-Pol) surface rainfall data for two different periods. Moreover, the performance of this rainfall estimation technique is evaluated against well-known methods, namely, the TRMM-2A12 [ the Goddard profiling algorithm (GPROF)], the Goddard scattering algorithm (GSCAT), and the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) algorithms. The proposed algorithm shows a normalized bias of approximately 23% for both PR and S-Pol ground truth datasets and a mean error of 0.244 mm h(-1) ( PR) and -0.157 mm h(-1)(S-Pol). For rain volume estimates using PR as reference, a correlation coefficient of 0.939 and a normalized bias of 0.039 were found. With respect to rainfall distributions and rain area comparisons, the results showed that the formulation proposed is efficient and compatible with the physics and dynamics of the observed systems over the area of interest. The performance of the other algorithms showed that GSCAT presented low normalized bias for rain areas and rain volume [0.346 ( PR) and 0.361 (S-Pol)], and GPROF showed rainfall distribution similar to that of the PR and S-Pol but with a bimodal distribution. Last, the five algorithms were evaluated during the TRMM-Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA) 1999 field campaign to verify the precipitation characteristics observed during the easterly and westerly Amazon wind flow regimes. The proposed algorithm presented a cumulative rainfall distribution similar to the observations during the easterly regime, but it underestimated for the westerly period for rainfall rates above 5 mm h(-1). NESDIS(1) overestimated for both wind regimes but presented the best westerly representation. NESDIS(2), GSCAT, and GPROF underestimated in both regimes, but GPROF was closer to the observations during the easterly flow.

Three-phase harmonic distortion state estimation algorithm based on evolutionary strategies

This paper presents a new methodology to estimate unbalanced harmonic distortions in a power system, based on measurements of a limited number of given sites. The algorithm utilizes evolutionary strategies (ES), a development branch of evolutionary algorithms. The problem solving algorithm herein proposed makes use of data from various power quality meters, which can either be synchronized by high technology GPS devices or by using information from a fundamental frequency load flow, what makes the overall power quality monitoring system much less costly. The ES based harmonic estimation model is applied to a 14 bus network to compare its performance to a conventional Monte Carlo approach. It is also applied to a 50 bus subtransmission network in order to compare the three-phase and single-phase approaches as well as the robustness of the proposed method. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Distributed Estimation Over an Adaptive Incremental Network Based on the Affine Projection Algorithm

We study the problem of distributed estimation based on the affine projection algorithm (APA), which is developed from Newton`s method for minimizing a cost function. The proposed solution is formulated to ameliorate the limited convergence properties of least-mean-square (LMS) type distributed adaptive filters with colored inputs. The analysis of transient and steady-state performances at each individual node within the network is developed by using a weighted spatial-temporal energy conservation relation and confirmed by computer simulations. The simulation results also verify that the proposed algorithm provides not only a faster convergence rate but also an improved steady-state performance as compared to an LMS-based scheme. In addition, the new approach attains an acceptable misadjustment performance with lower computational and memory cost, provided the number of regressor vectors and filter length parameters are appropriately chosen, as compared to a distributed recursive-least-squares (RLS) based method.

A Levinson algorithm based on an isometric transformation of Durbin`s

Starting from the Durbin algorithm in polynomial space with an inner product defined by the signal autocorrelation matrix, an isometric transformation is defined that maps this vector space into another one where the Levinson algorithm is performed. Alternatively, for iterative algorithms such as discrete all-pole (DAP), an efficient implementation of a Gohberg-Semencul (GS) relation is developed for the inversion of the autocorrelation matrix which considers its centrosymmetry. In the solution of the autocorrelation equations, the Levinson algorithm is found to be less complex operationally than the procedures based on GS inversion for up to a minimum of five iterations at various linear prediction (LP) orders.

Distributed power control algorithm for multiple access systems based on Verhulst model

In this paper the continuous Verhulst dynamic model is used to synthesize a new distributed power control algorithm (DPCA) for use in direct sequence code division multiple access (DS-CDMA) systems. The Verhulst model was initially designed to describe the population growth of biological species under food and physical space restrictions. The discretization of the corresponding differential equation is accomplished via the Euler numeric integration (ENI) method. Analytical convergence conditions for the proposed DPCA are also established. Several properties of the proposed recursive algorithm, such as Euclidean distance from optimum vector after convergence, convergence speed, normalized mean squared error (NSE), average power consumption per user, performance under dynamics channels, and implementation complexity aspects, are analyzed through simulations. The simulation results are compared with two other DPCAs: the classic algorithm derived by Foschini and Miljanic and the sigmoidal of Uykan and Koivo. Under estimated errors conditions, the proposed DPCA exhibits smaller discrepancy from the optimum power vector solution and better convergence (under fixed and adaptive convergence factor) than the classic and sigmoidal DPCAs. (C) 2010 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Genetic variability among sugarcane genotypes based on polymorphisms in sucrose metabolism and drought tolerance genes

Target region amplification polymorphism (TRAP) markers were used to estimate the genetic similarity (GS) among 53 sugarcane varieties and five species of the Saccharum complex. Seven fixed primers designed from candidate genes involved in sucrose metabolism and three from those involved in drought response metabolism were used in combination with three arbitrary primers. The clustering of the genotypes for sucrose metabolism and drought response were similar, but the GS based on Jaccard`s coefficient changed. The GS based on polymorphism in sucrose genes estimated in a set of 46 Brazilian varieties, all of which belong to the three Brazilian breeding programs, ranged from 0.52 to 0.9, and that based on drought data ranged from 0.44 to 0.95. The results suggest that genetic variability in the evaluated genes was lower in the sucrose metabolism genes than in the drought response metabolism ones.

Genetic Diversity and a PCR-Based Method for Xanthomonas axonopodis Detection in Passion Fruit

Xanthomonas axonopodis pv. passiflorae causes bacterial spot in passion fruit. It attacks the purple and yellow passion fruit as well as the sweet passion fruit. The diversity of 87 isolates of pv. passiflorae collected from across 22 fruit orchards in Brazil was evaluated using molecular profiles and statistical procedures, including an unweighted pair-group method with arithmetical averages-based dendrogram, analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA), and an assigning test that provides information on genetic structure at the population level. Isolates from another eight pathovars were included in the molecular analyses and all were shown to have a distinct repetitive sequence-based polymerase chain reaction profile. Amplified fragment length polymorphism technique revealed considerable diversity among isolates of pv. passiflorae, and AMOVA showed that most of the variance (49.4%) was due to differences between localities. Cluster analysis revealed that most genotypic clusters were homogeneous and that variance was associated primarily with geographic origin. The disease adversely affects fruit production and may kill infected plants. A method for rapid diagnosis of the pathogen, even before the disease symptoms become evident, has value for producers. Here, a set of primers (Xapas) was designed by exploiting a single-nucleotide polymorphism between the sequences of the intergenic 16S-23S rRNA spacer region of the pathovars. Xapas was shown to effectively detect all pv. passiflorae isolates and is recommended for disease diagnosis in passion fruit orchards.