59 resultados para optimal estimation


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This work examines the effect of weld strength mismatch on fracture toughness measurements defined by J and CTOD fracture parameters using single edge notch bend (SE(B)) specimens. A central objective of the present study is to enlarge on previous developments of J and CTOD estimation procedures for welded bend specimens based upon plastic eta factors (eta) and plastic rotational factors (r (p) ). Very detailed non-linear finite element analyses for plane-strain models of standard SE(B) fracture specimens with a notch located at the center of square groove welds and in the heat affected zone provide the evolution of load with increased crack mouth opening displacement required for the estimation procedure. One key result emerging from the analyses is that levels of weld strength mismatch within the range +/- 20% mismatch do not affect significantly J and CTOD estimation expressions applicable to homogeneous materials, particularly for deeply cracked fracture specimens with relatively large weld grooves. The present study provides additional understanding on the effect of weld strength mismatch on J and CTOD toughness measurements while, at the same time, adding a fairly extensive body of results to determine parameters J and CTOD for different materials using bend specimens with varying geometries and mismatch levels.

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In this paper, 2 different approaches for estimating the directional wave spectrum based on a vessel`s 1st-order motions are discussed, and their predictions are compared to those provided by a wave buoy. The real-scale data were obtained in an extensive monitoring campaign based on an FPSO unit operating at Campos Basin, Brazil. Data included vessel motions, heading and tank loadings. Wave field information was obtained by means of a heave-pitch-roll buoy installed in the vicinity of the unit. `two of the methods most widely used for this kind of analysis are considered, one based on Bayesian statistical inference, the other consisting of a parametrical representation of the wave spectrum. The performance of both methods is compared, and their sensitivity to input parameters is discussed. This analysis complements a set of previous validations based on numerical and towing-tank results and allows for a preliminary evaluation of reliability when applying the methodology at full scale.

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The thermal performance of a cooling tower and its cooling water system is critical for industrial plants, and small deviations from the design conditions may cause severe instability in the operation and economics of the process. External disturbances such as variation in the thermal demand of the process or oscillations in atmospheric conditions may be suppressed in multiple ways. Nevertheless, such alternatives are hardly ever implemented in the industrial operation due to the poor coordination between the utility and process sectors. The complexity of the operation increases because of the strong interaction among the process variables. In the present work, an integrated model for the minimization of the operating costs of a cooling water system is developed. The system is composed of a cooling tower as well as a network of heat exchangers. After the model is verified, several cases are studied with the objective of determining the optimal operation. It is observed that the most important operational resources to mitigate disturbances in the thermal demand of the process are, in this order: the increase in recycle water flow rate, the increase in air flow rate and finally the forced removal of a portion of the water flow rate that enters the cooling tower with the corresponding make-up flow rate. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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The objective of this paper is to develop a mathematical model for the synthesis of anaerobic digester networks based on the optimization of a superstructure that relies on a non-linear programming formulation. The proposed model contains the kinetic and hydraulic equations developed by Pontes and Pinto [Chemical Engineering journal 122 (2006) 65-80] for two types of digesters, namely UASB (Upflow Anaerobic Sludge Blanket) and EGSB (Expanded Granular Sludge Bed) reactors. The objective function minimizes the overall sum of the reactor volumes. The optimization results show that a recycle stream is only effective in case of a reactor with short-circuit, such as the UASB reactor. Sensitivity analysis was performed in the one and two-digester network superstructures, for the following parameters: UASB reactor short-circuit fraction and the EGSB reactor maximum organic load, and the corresponding results vary considerably in terms of digester volumes. Scenarios for three and four-digester network superstructures were optimized and compared with the results from fewer digesters. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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For the optimal design of plate heat exchangers (PHEs), an accurate thermal-hydraulic model that takes into account the effect of the flow arrangement on the heat load and pressure drop is necessary. In the present study, the effect of the flow arrangement on the pressure drop of a PHE is investigated. Thirty two different arrangements were experimentally tested using a laboratory scale PHE with flat plates. The experimental data was used for (a) determination of an empirical correlation for the effect of the number of passes and number of flow channels per pass on the pressure drop; (b) validation of a friction factor model through parameter estimation; and (c) comparison with the simulation results obtained with a CFD (computational fluid dynamics) model of the PHE. All three approaches resulted in a good agreement between experimental and predicted values of pressure drop. Moreover, the CFD model is used for evaluating the flow maldistribution in a PHE with two channels Per Pass. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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There is an increasing need to treat effluents contaminated with phenol with advanced oxidation processes (AOPs) to minimize their impact on the environment as well as on bacteriological populations of other wastewater treatment systems. One of the most promising AOPs is the Fenton process that relies on the Fenton reaction. Nevertheless, there are no systematic studies on Fenton reactor networks. The objective of this paper is to develop a strategy for the optimal synthesis of Fenton reactor networks. The strategy is based on a superstructure optimization approach that is represented as a mixed integer non-linear programming (MINLP) model. Network superstructures with multiple Fenton reactors are optimized with the objective of minimizing the sum of capital, operation and depreciation costs of the effluent treatment system. The optimal solutions obtained provide the reactor volumes and network configuration, as well as the quantities of the reactants used in the Fenton process. Examples based on a case study show that multi-reactor networks yield decrease of up to 45% in overall costs for the treatment plant. (C) 2010 The Institution of Chemical Engineers. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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We study the problem of distributed estimation based on the affine projection algorithm (APA), which is developed from Newton`s method for minimizing a cost function. The proposed solution is formulated to ameliorate the limited convergence properties of least-mean-square (LMS) type distributed adaptive filters with colored inputs. The analysis of transient and steady-state performances at each individual node within the network is developed by using a weighted spatial-temporal energy conservation relation and confirmed by computer simulations. The simulation results also verify that the proposed algorithm provides not only a faster convergence rate but also an improved steady-state performance as compared to an LMS-based scheme. In addition, the new approach attains an acceptable misadjustment performance with lower computational and memory cost, provided the number of regressor vectors and filter length parameters are appropriately chosen, as compared to a distributed recursive-least-squares (RLS) based method.

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We consider in this paper the optimal stationary dynamic linear filtering problem for continuous-time linear systems subject to Markovian jumps in the parameters (LSMJP) and additive noise (Wiener process). It is assumed that only an output of the system is available and therefore the values of the jump parameter are not accessible. It is a well known fact that in this setting the optimal nonlinear filter is infinite dimensional, which makes the linear filtering a natural numerically, treatable choice. The goal is to design a dynamic linear filter such that the closed loop system is mean square stable and minimizes the stationary expected value of the mean square estimation error. It is shown that an explicit analytical solution to this optimal filtering problem is obtained from the stationary solution associated to a certain Riccati equation. It is also shown that the problem can be formulated using a linear matrix inequalities (LMI) approach, which can be extended to consider convex polytopic uncertainties on the parameters of the possible modes of operation of the system and on the transition rate matrix of the Markov process. As far as the authors are aware of this is the first time that this stationary filtering problem (exact and robust versions) for LSMJP with no knowledge of the Markov jump parameters is considered in the literature. Finally, we illustrate the results with an example.

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In this article, we consider the stochastic optimal control problem of discrete-time linear systems subject to Markov jumps and multiplicative noise under three kinds of performance criterions related to the final value of the expectation and variance of the output. In the first problem it is desired to minimise the final variance of the output subject to a restriction on its final expectation, in the second one it is desired to maximise the final expectation of the output subject to a restriction on its final variance, and in the third one it is considered a performance criterion composed by a linear combination of the final variance and expectation of the output of the system. We present explicit sufficient conditions for the existence of an optimal control strategy for these problems, generalising previous results in the literature. We conclude this article presenting a numerical example of an asset liabilities management model for pension funds with regime switching.

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We derive the Cramer-Rao Lower Bound (CRLB) for the estimation of initial conditions of noise-embedded orbits produced by general one-dimensional maps. We relate this bound`s asymptotic behavior to the attractor`s Lyapunov number and show numerical examples. These results pave the way for more suitable choices for the chaotic signal generator in some chaotic digital communication systems. (c) 2006 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

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This work aims at proposing the use of the evolutionary computation methodology in order to jointly solve the multiuser channel estimation (MuChE) and detection problems at its maximum-likelihood, both related to the direct sequence code division multiple access (DS/CDMA). The effectiveness of the proposed heuristic approach is proven by comparing performance and complexity merit figures with that obtained by traditional methods found in literature. Simulation results considering genetic algorithm (GA) applied to multipath, DS/CDMA and MuChE and multi-user detection (MuD) show that the proposed genetic algorithm multi-user channel estimation (GAMuChE) yields a normalized mean square error estimation (nMSE) inferior to 11%, under slowly varying multipath fading channels, large range of Doppler frequencies and medium system load, it exhibits lower complexity when compared to both maximum likelihood multi-user channel estimation (MLMuChE) and gradient descent method (GrdDsc). A near-optimum multi-user detector (MuD) based on the genetic algorithm (GAMuD), also proposed in this work, provides a significant reduction in the computational complexity when compared to the optimum multi-user detector (OMuD). In addition, the complexity of the GAMuChE and GAMuD algorithms were (jointly) analyzed in terms of number of operations necessary to reach the convergence, and compared to other jointly MuChE and MuD strategies. The joint GAMuChE-GAMuD scheme can be regarded as a promising alternative for implementing third-generation (3G) and fourth-generation (4G) wireless systems in the near future. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Asymmetric discrete triangular distributions are introduced in order to extend the symmetric ones serving for discrete associated kernels in the nonparametric estimation for discrete functions. The extension from one to two orders around the mode provides a large family of discrete distributions having a finite support. Establishing a bridge between Dirac and discrete uniform distributions, some different shapes are also obtained and their properties are investigated. In particular, the mean and variance are pointed out. Applications to discrete kernel estimators are given with a solution to a boundary bias problem. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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The zero-inflated negative binomial model is used to account for overdispersion detected in data that are initially analyzed under the zero-Inflated Poisson model A frequentist analysis a jackknife estimator and a non-parametric bootstrap for parameter estimation of zero-inflated negative binomial regression models are considered In addition an EM-type algorithm is developed for performing maximum likelihood estimation Then the appropriate matrices for assessing local influence on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes and some ways to perform global influence analysis are derived In order to study departures from the error assumption as well as the presence of outliers residual analysis based on the standardized Pearson residuals is discussed The relevance of the approach is illustrated with a real data set where It is shown that zero-inflated negative binomial regression models seems to fit the data better than the Poisson counterpart (C) 2010 Elsevier B V All rights reserved

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In this study, regression models are evaluated for grouped survival data when the effect of censoring time is considered in the model and the regression structure is modeled through four link functions. The methodology for grouped survival data is based on life tables, and the times are grouped in k intervals so that ties are eliminated. Thus, the data modeling is performed by considering the discrete models of lifetime regression. The model parameters are estimated by using the maximum likelihood and jackknife methods. To detect influential observations in the proposed models, diagnostic measures based on case deletion, which are denominated global influence, and influence measures based on small perturbations in the data or in the model, referred to as local influence, are used. In addition to those measures, the local influence and the total influential estimate are also employed. Various simulation studies are performed and compared to the performance of the four link functions of the regression models for grouped survival data for different parameter settings, sample sizes and numbers of intervals. Finally, a data set is analyzed by using the proposed regression models. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Nowadays, the rising competition for the use of water and environmental resources with consequent restrictions for farmers should change the paradigm in terms of irrigation concepts, or rather, in order to attain economical efficiency other than to supply water requirement for the crop. Therefore, taking into account the social and economical role of bean activity in Brazil, as well as the risk inherent to crop due to its high sensibility to both deficit and excessive water, the optimization methods regarding to irrigation management have become more interesting and essential. This study intends to present a way to determine the optimal water supply, considering different combinations between desired bean yield and level of risk, bringing as a result a graph with the former associated with the latter, depending on different water depths.