Bayesian Estimation of the Logistic Positive Exponent IRT Model

A Bayesian inference approach using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is developed for the logistic positive exponent (LPE) model proposed by Samejima and for a new skewed Logistic Item Response Theory (IRT) model, named Reflection LPE model. Both models lead to asymmetric item characteristic curves (ICC) and can be appropriate because a symmetric ICC treats both correct and incorrect answers symmetrically, which results in a logical contradiction in ordering examinees on the ability scale. A data set corresponding to a mathematical test applied in Peruvian public schools is analyzed, where comparisons with other parametric IRT models also are conducted. Several model comparison criteria are discussed and implemented. The main conclusion is that the LPE and RLPE IRT models are easy to implement and seem to provide the best fit to the data set considered.

Some restriction tests in a new class of regression models for proportions

The main purpose of this work is to study the behaviour of Skovgaard`s [Skovgaard, I.M., 2001. Likelihood asymptotics. Scandinavian journal of Statistics 28, 3-32] adjusted likelihood ratio statistic in testing simple hypothesis in a new class of regression models proposed here. The proposed class of regression models considers Dirichlet distributed observations, and the parameters that index the Dirichlet distributions are related to covariates and unknown regression coefficients. This class is useful for modelling data consisting of multivariate positive observations summing to one and generalizes the beta regression model described in Vasconcellos and Cribari-Neto [Vasconcellos, K.L.P., Cribari-Neto, F., 2005. Improved maximum likelihood estimation in a new class of beta regression models. Brazilian journal of Probability and Statistics 19,13-31]. We show that, for our model, Skovgaard`s adjusted likelihood ratio statistics have a simple compact form that can be easily implemented in standard statistical software. The adjusted statistic is approximately chi-squared distributed with a high degree of accuracy. Some numerical simulations show that the modified test is more reliable in finite samples than the usual likelihood ratio procedure. An empirical application is also presented and discussed. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ventilation behavior in trained and untrained men during incremental test: evidence of one metabolic transition point

This study aimed to describe and compare the ventilation behavior during an incremental test utilizing three mathematical models and to compare the feature of ventilation curve fitted by the best mathematical model between aerobically trained (TR) and untrained ( UT) men. Thirty five subjects underwent a treadmill test with 1 km.h(-1) increases every minute until exhaustion. Ventilation averages of 20 seconds were plotted against time and fitted by: bi-segmental regression model (2SRM); three-segmental regression model (3SRM); and growth exponential model (GEM). Residual sum of squares (RSS) and mean square error (MSE) were calculated for each model. The correlations between peak VO2 (VO2PEAK), peak speed (Speed(PEAK)), ventilatory threshold identified by the best model (VT2SRM) and the first derivative calculated for workloads below (moderate intensity) and above (heavy intensity) VT2SRM were calculated. The RSS and MSE for GEM were significantly higher (p < 0.01) than for 2SRM and 3SRM in pooled data and in UT, but no significant difference was observed among the mathematical models in TR. In the pooled data, the first derivative of moderate intensities showed significant negative correlations with VT2SRM (r = -0.58; p < 0.01) and Speed(PEAK) (r = -0.46; p < 0.05) while the first derivative of heavy intensities showed significant negative correlation with VT2SRM (r = -0.43; p < 0.05). In UT group the first derivative of moderate intensities showed significant negative correlations with VT2SRM (r = -0.65; p < 0.05) and Speed(PEAK) (r = -0.61; p < 0.05), while the first derivative of heavy intensities showed significant negative correlation with VT2SRM (r= -0.73; p < 0.01), Speed(PEAK) (r = -0.73; p < 0.01) and VO2PEAK (r = -0.61; p < 0.05) in TR group. The ventilation behavior during incremental treadmill test tends to show only one threshold. UT subjects showed a slower ventilation increase during moderate intensities while TR subjects showed a slower ventilation increase during heavy intensities.

Diversification and Species Boundaries of Rhinebothrium (Cestoda; Rhinebothriidea) in South American Freshwater Stingrays (Batoidea; Potamotrygonidae)

Background: Neotropical freshwater stingrays (Batoidea: Potamotrygonidae) host a diverse parasite fauna, including cestodes. Both cestodes and their stingray hosts are marine-derived, but the taxonomy of this host/parasite system is poorly understood. Methodology: Morphological and molecular (Cytochrome oxidase I) data were used to investigate diversity in freshwater lineages of the cestode genus Rhinebothrium Linton, 1890. Results were based on a phylogenetic hypothesis for 74 COI sequences and morphological analysis of over 400 specimens. Cestodes studied were obtained from 888 individual potamotrygonids, representing 14 recognized and 18 potentially undescribed species from most river systems of South America. Results: Morphological species boundaries were based mainly on microthrix characters observed with scanning electron microscopy, and were supported by COI data. Four species were recognized, including two redescribed (Rhinebothrium copianullum and R. paratrygoni), and two newly described (R. brooksi n. sp. and R. fulbrighti n. sp.). Rhinebothrium paranaensis Menoret & Ivanov, 2009 is considered a junior synonym of R. paratrygoni because the morphological features of the two species overlap substantially. The diagnosis of Rhinebothrium Linton, 1890 is emended to accommodate the presence of marginal longitudinal septa observed in R. copianullum and R. brooksi n. sp. Patterns of host specificity and distribution ranged from use of few host species in few river basins, to use of as many as eight host species in multiple river basins. Significance: The level of intra-specific morphological variation observed in features such as total length and number of proglottids is unparalleled among other elasmobranch cestodes. This is attributed to the large representation of host and biogeographical samples. It is unclear whether the intra-specific morphological variation observed is unique to this freshwater system. Nonetheless, caution is urged when using morphological discontinuities to delimit elasmobranch cestode species because the amount of variation encountered is highly dependent on sample size and/or biogeographical representation.

Diffusion anomaly and dynamic transitions in the Bell-Lavis water model

In this paper we investigate the dynamic properties of the minimal Bell-Lavis (BL) water model and their relation to the thermodynamic anomalies. The BL model is defined on a triangular lattice in which water molecules are represented by particles with three symmetric bonding arms interacting through van der Waals and hydrogen bonds. We have studied the model diffusivity in different regions of the phase diagram through Monte Carlo simulations. Our results show that the model displays a region of anomalous diffusion which lies inside the region of anomalous density, englobed by the line of temperatures of maximum density. Further, we have found that the diffusivity undergoes a dynamic transition which may be classified as fragile-to-strong transition at the critical line only at low pressures. At higher densities, no dynamic transition is seen on crossing the critical line. Thus evidence from this study is that relation of dynamic transitions to criticality may be discarded. (C) 2010 American Institute of Physics. [doi:10.1063/1.3479001]

Context tree selection: A unifying view

Context tree models have been introduced by Rissanen in [25] as a parsimonious generalization of Markov models. Since then, they have been widely used in applied probability and statistics. The present paper investigates non-asymptotic properties of two popular procedures of context tree estimation: Rissanen's algorithm Context and penalized maximum likelihood. First showing how they are related, we prove finite horizon bounds for the probability of over- and under-estimation. Concerning overestimation, no boundedness or loss-of-memory conditions are required: the proof relies on new deviation inequalities for empirical probabilities of independent interest. The under-estimation properties rely on classical hypotheses for processes of infinite memory. These results improve on and generalize the bounds obtained in Duarte et al. (2006) [12], Galves et al. (2008) [18], Galves and Leonardi (2008) [17], Leonardi (2010) [22], refining asymptotic results of Buhlmann and Wyner (1999) [4] and Csiszar and Talata (2006) [9]. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Thermodynamic and topological instability approaches for forecasting glass-forming ability in the ternary Al-Ni-Y system

A thermodynamic approach to predict bulk glass-forming compositions in binary metallic systems was recently proposed. In this approach. the parameter gamma* = Delta H-amor/(Delta H-inter - Delta H-amor) indicates the glass-forming ability (GFA) from the standpoint of the driving force to form different competing phases, and Delta H-amor and Delta H-inter are the enthalpies for-lass and intermetallic formation, respectively. Good glass-forming compositions should have a large negative enthalpy for glass formation and a very small difference for intermetallic formation, thus making the glassy phase easily reachable even under low cooling rates. The gamma* parameter showed a good correlation with GFA experimental data in the Ni-Nb binary system. In this work, a simple extension of the gamma* parameter is applied in the ternary Al-Ni-Y system. The calculated gamma* isocontours in the ternary diagram are compared with experimental results of glass formation in that system. Despite sonic misfitting, the best glass formers are found quite close to the highest gamma* values, leading to the conclusion that this thermodynamic approach can lie extended to ternary systems, serving as a useful tool for the development of new glass-forming compositions. Finally the thermodynamic approach is compared with the topological instability criteria used to predict the thermal behavior of glassy Al alloys. (C) 2007 Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.

The determinants of default risk in Brazil

We formulated a general unrestricted model of the Brazilian Emerging Markets Bond Index Plus (EMBI+) spreads, a proxy for the country`s default risk. Employing algorithms that perform automated model selection, we found that macroeconomic fundamentals, such as current account deficit ratio to gross domestic product, public deficit ratio to gross domestic product and imports over foreign exchange reserves, can explain a great part of the variation in EMBI+ spreads. There is also robust evidence of systematic contagion from Argentina and Mexico and that the variance of the spread also affects its mean.

Nasal eosinophilia: an indicator of eosinophilic inflammation in asthma

Background It is noteworthy that there is a clear clinical, epidemiological and pathophysiological association between upper and lower airway inflammation in rhinitis and asthma. Objective The aim of this study was to compare the eosinophil counts in induced sputum and nasal lavage fluids in asthma, checking their association and the accuracy of nasal eosinophilia as a predictor of sputum eosinophilia by a cross-sectional study. Methods The clinical evaluation, asthma control questionnaire (ACQ), pre- and post-bronchodilator spirometry, nasal and sputum sample was performed. The nasal eosinophilia was analysed by a receiver operating curve and logistic regression model. Results In 140 adults, the post-bronchodilator forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV(1)) did not differ between patients with or without sputum eosinophilia (0.18). After adjusted for upper airway symptoms, age, ACQ score and post-bronchodilator FEV(1), sputum eosinophilia was associated with 52 times increase in odds of nasal eosinophilia, whereas each 1% increase in bronchodilator response was associated with 7% increase in odds of nasal eosinophilia. Conclusion This study brings further evidence that upper airway diseases are an important component of the asthma syndrome. Furthermore, monitoring of nasal eosinophilia by quantitative cytology may be useful as a surrogate of sputum cytology in as a component of composite measurement for determining airway inflammation.

Abnormally increased effective connectivity between parahippocampal gyrus and ventromedial prefrontal regions during emotion labeling in bipolar disorder

Emotional liability and mood dysregulation characterize bipolar disorder (BID), yet no study has examined effective connectivity between parahippocampal gyrus and prefrontal cortical regions in ventromedial and dorsal/lateral neural systems subserving mood regulation in BD. Participants comprised 46 individuals (age range: 18-56 years): 21 with a DSM-IV diagnosis of BID, type I currently remitted; and 25 age- and gender-matched healthy controls (HC). Participants performed an event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging paradigm, viewing mild and intense happy and neutral faces. We employed dynamic causal modeling (I)CM) to identify significant alterations in effective connectivity between BD and HC. Bayes model selection was used to determine the best model. The right parahippocampal gyrus (PHG) and right subgenual cingulate gyrus (sgCG) were included as representative regions of the ventromedial neural system. The right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) region was included as representative of the dorsal/lateral neural system. Right PHG-sgCG effective connectivity was significantly greater in BD than HC, reflecting more rapid, forward PHG-sgCG signaling in BD than HC. There was no between-group difference in sgCG-DLPFC effective connectivity. In BD, abnormally increased right PHG-sgCG effective connectivity and reduced right PHG activity to emotional stimuli suggest a dysfunctional ventromedial neural system implicated in early stimulus appraisal, encoding and automatic regulation of emotion that may represent a pathophysiological functional neural mechanism for mood dysregulation in BD. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

PREDICTION OF FAT-FREE MASS BY BIOELECTRICAL IMPEDANCE ANALYSIS IN OLDER ADULTS FROM DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: A CROSS-VALIDATION STUDY USING THE DEUTERIUM DILUTION METHOD

Objective: Several limitations of published bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) equations have been reported. The aims were to develop in a multiethnic, elderly population a new prediction equation and cross-validate it along with some published BIA equations for estimating fat-free mass using deuterium oxide dilution as the reference method. Design and setting: Cross-sectional study of elderly from five developing countries. Methods: Total body water (TBW) measured by deuterium dilution was used to determine fat-free mass (FFM) in 383 subjects. Anthropometric and BIA variables were also measured. Only 377 subjects were included for the analysis, randomly divided into development and cross-validation groups after stratified by gender. Stepwise model selection was used to generate the model and Bland Altman analysis was used to test agreement. Results: FFM = 2.95 - 3.89 (Gender) + 0.514 (Ht(2)/Z) + 0.090 (Waist) + 0.156 (Body weight). The model fit parameters were an R(2), total F-Ratio, and the SEE of 0.88, 314.3, and 3.3, respectively. None of the published BIA equations met the criteria for agreement. The new BIA equation underestimated FFM by just 0.3 kg in the cross-validation sample. The mean of the difference between FFM by TBW and the new BIA equation were not significantly different; 95% of the differences were between the limits of agreement of -6.3 to 6.9 kg of FFM. There was no significant association between the mean of the differences and their averages (r = 0.008 and p = 0.2). Conclusions: This new BIA equation offers a valid option compared with some of the current published BIA equations to estimate FFM in elderly subjects from five developing countries.

Placement of Kuhlmanniodendron Fiaschi & Groppo in Lindackerieae (Achariaceae, Malpighiales) confirmed by analyses of rbcL sequences, with notes on pollen morphology and wood anatomy

The phylogenetic placement of Kuhlmanniodendron Fiaschi & Groppo (Achariaceae) within Malpighiales was investigated with rbcL sequence data. This genus was recently created to accommodate Carpotroche apterocarpa Kuhlm., a poorly known species from the rainforests of Espirito Santo, Brazil. One rbcL sequence was obtained from Kuhlmanniodendron and analyzed with 73 additional sequences from Malpighiales, and 8 from two closer orders, Oxalidales and Celastrales, all of which were available at Genbank. Phylogenetic analyses were carried out with maximum parsimony and Bayesian inference; bootstrap analyses were used in maximum parsimony to evaluate branch support. The results confirmed the placement of Kuhlmanniodendron together with Camptostylus, Lindackeria, Xylotheca, and Caloncoba in a strongly supported clade (posterior probability = 0.99) that corresponds with the tribe Lindackerieae of Achariaceae (Malpighiales). Kuhlmanniodendron also does not appear to be closely related to Oncoba (Salicaceae), an African genus with similar floral and fruit morphology that has been traditionally placed among cyanogenic Flacourtiaceae (now Achariaceae). A picrosodic paper test was performed in herbarium dry leaves, and the presence of cyanogenic glycosides, a class of compounds usually found in Achariaceae, was detected. Pollen morphology and wood anatomy of Kuhlmanniodendron were also investigated, but both pollen (3-colporate and microreticulate) and wood, with solitary to multiple vessels, scalariform perforation plates and other features, do not seem to be useful to distinguish this genus from other members of the Achariaceae and are rather common among the eudicotyledons as a whole. However, perforated ray cells with scalariform plates, an uncommon wood character, present in Kuhlmanniodendron are similar to those found in Kiggelaria africana (Pangieae, Achariaceae), but the occurrence of such cells is not mapped among the angiosperms, and it is not clear how homoplastic this character could be.

Relative effects of fragment size and connectivity on bird community in the Atlantic Rain Forest: Implications for conservation

It is known that large fragment sizes and high connectivity levels are key components for maintaining species in fragments; however, their relative effects are poorly understood, especially in tropical areas. In order to test these effects, we built models for explaining understory birds occurrence in a fragmented Atlantic Rain Forest landscape with intermediate habitat cover (3%). Data from over 9000 mist-net hours from 17 fragments differing in size (2-175 ha) and connectivity (considering corridor linkages and distance to nearby fragments) were ranked under a model selection approach. A total 1293 individuals of 62 species were recorded. Species richness, abundance and compositional variation were mainly affected by connectivity indices that consider the capacity of species to use corridors and/or to cross short distances up to 30 m through the matrix. Bird functional groups were differently affected by area and connectivity: while terrestrial insectivores, omnivores and frugivores were affected by both area and connectivity, the other groups (understory insectivores, nectarivores, and others) were affected only by connectivity. In the studied landscape, well connected fragments can sustain an elevated number of species and individuals. Connectivity gives the opportunity for individuals to use multiple fragments, reducing the influence of fragment size. While preserving large fragments is a conservation target worldwide and should continue to be, our results indicated that connectivity between fragments can enhance the area functionally connected and is beneficial to all functional groups and therefore should be a conservation priority. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Time-lag in biological responses to landscape changes in a highly dynamic Atlantic forest region

Time-lagged responses of biological variables to landscape modifications are widely recognized, but rarely considered in ecological studies. In order to test for the existence of time-lags in the response of trees, small mammals, birds and frogs to changes in fragment area and connectivity, we studied a fragmented and highly dynamic landscape in the Atlantic forest region. We also investigated the biological correlates associated with differential responses among taxonomic groups. Species richness and abundance for four taxonomic groups were measured in 21 secondary forest fragments during the same period (2000-2002), following a standardized protocol. Data analyses were based on power regressions and model selection procedures. The model inputs included present (2000) and past (1962, 1981) fragment areas and connectivity, as well as observed changes in these parameters. Although past landscape structure was particularly relevant for trees, all taxonomic groups (except small mammals) were affected by landscape dynamics, exhibiting a time-lagged response. Furthermore, fragment area was more important for species groups with lower dispersal capacity, while species with higher dispersal ability had stronger responses to connectivity measures. Although these secondary forest fragments still maintain a large fraction of their original biodiversity, the delay in biological response combined with high rates of deforestation and fast forest regeneration imply in a reduction in the average age of the forest. This also indicates that future species losses are likely, especially those that are more strictly-forest dwellers. Conservation actions should be implemented to reduce species extinction, to maintain old-growth forests and to favour the regeneration process. Our results demonstrate that landscape history can strongly affect the present distribution pattern of species in fragmented landscapes, and should be considered in conservation planning. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Partitions selection strategy for set of clustering solutions

Clustering is a difficult task: there is no single cluster definition and the data can have more than one underlying structure. Pareto-based multi-objective genetic algorithms (e.g., MOCK Multi-Objective Clustering with automatic K-determination and MOCLE-Multi-Objective Clustering Ensemble) were proposed to tackle these problems. However, the output of such algorithms can often contains a high number of partitions, becoming difficult for an expert to manually analyze all of them. In order to deal with this problem, we present two selection strategies, which are based on the corrected Rand, to choose a subset of solutions. To test them, they are applied to the set of solutions produced by MOCK and MOCLE in the context of several datasets. The study was also extended to select a reduced set of partitions from the initial population of MOCLE. These analysis show that both versions of selection strategy proposed are very effective. They can significantly reduce the number of solutions and, at the same time, keep the quality and the diversity of the partitions in the original set of solutions. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.