A hybrid commodity price-forecasting model applied to the sugar-alcohol sector

Accurate price forecasting for agricultural commodities can have significant decision-making implications for suppliers, especially those of biofuels, where the agriculture and energy sectors intersect. Environmental pressures and high oil prices affect demand for biofuels and have reignited the discussion about effects on food prices. Suppliers in the sugar-alcohol sector need to decide the ideal proportion of ethanol and sugar to optimise their financial strategy. Prices can be affected by exogenous factors, such as exchange rates and interest rates, as well as non-observable variables like the convenience yield, which is related to supply shortages. The literature generally uses two approaches: artificial neural networks (ANNs), which are recognised as being in the forefront of exogenous-variable analysis, and stochastic models such as the Kalman filter, which is able to account for non-observable variables. This article proposes a hybrid model for forecasting the prices of agricultural commodities that is built upon both approaches and is applied to forecast the price of sugar. The Kalman filter considers the structure of the stochastic process that describes the evolution of prices. Neural networks allow variables that can impact asset prices in an indirect, nonlinear way, what cannot be incorporated easily into traditional econometric models.

Inverse aerodynamic design applications using the MGM hybrid formulation

The well-known modified Garabedian-Mcfadden (MGM) method is an attractive alternative for aerodynamic inverse design, for its simplicity and effectiveness (P. Garabedian and G. Mcfadden, Design of supercritical swept wings, AIAA J. 20(3) (1982), 289-291; J.B. Malone, J. Vadyak, and L.N. Sankar, Inverse aerodynamic design method for aircraft components, J. Aircraft 24(2) (1987), 8-9; Santos, A hybrid optimization method for aerodynamic design of lifting surfaces, PhD Thesis, Georgia Institute of Technology, 1993). Owing to these characteristics, the method has been the subject of several authors over the years (G.S. Dulikravich and D.P. Baker, Aerodynamic shape inverse design using a Fourier series method, in AIAA paper 99-0185, AIAA Aerospace Sciences Meeting, Reno, NV, January 1999; D.H. Silva and L.N. Sankar, An inverse method for the design of transonic wings, in 1992 Aerospace Design Conference, No. 92-1025 in proceedings, AIAA, Irvine, CA, February 1992, 1-11; W. Bartelheimer, An Improved Integral Equation Method for the Design of Transonic Airfoils and Wings, AIAA Inc., 1995). More recently, a hybrid formulation and a multi-point algorithm were developed on the basis of the original MGM. This article discusses applications of those latest developments for airfoil and wing design. The test cases focus on wing-body aerodynamic interference and shock wave removal applications. The DLR-F6 geometry is picked as the baseline for the analysis.

Inheritance of resistance to Puccinia psidii G. Winter in a eucalyptus interspecific hybrid progeny evaluated under conditions of natural infection

Inheritance of resistance to Puccinia psidii G. Winter in a eucalyptus interspecific hybrid progeny evaluated under conditions of natural infection Rust caused by the fungus Puccinia psidii is currently the most important disease of eucalyptus. It is widely disseminated in Brazil, and causes serious damage in nurseries and plantation areas. The identification of resistant germplasm along with knowledge of the genetic basis of resistance heredity are the first requirements for the success of breeding programs aiming to develop resistant varieties. Earlier studies carried out under controlled conditions suggested a monogenic control as well as the participation of at least two genes promoting resistance to rust. The goal of this study was to evaluate the resistance to P. psidii under field conditions in fourteen progenies from controlled crosses and self-crosses among four hybrid clones of Eucalyptus grandis Hill ex Maiden x Eucalyptus urophylla ST Blake that contrast for resistance to the fungus. Results indicated that resistance could be explained by one locus with main effects and at least three different alleles. However, loci with minor effects may influence the resistance, since variation on severity classes was observed. Differences in segregation of resistance between reciprocal crosses were not observed, indicating absence of cytoplasmic effects.

Water use and crop coefficient for hybrid DKB 390

Water use and crop coefficient for hybrid DKB 390. This work aims to characterize the water use of maize hybrid DKB 390 under suitable conditions of irrigation for both sufficient and below-optimal situations of nitrogen supply. Crop coefficient values for different stages are also presented as a result, in order to provide the basis for crop water budget and management throughout the cycle. A field experiment was carried Out during the main season, in which biomass, soil moisture, leaf area, climate data and light transmittance were evaluated. These have allowed deriving water balance, use and efficiency. The mentioned genotype requires around 600 nun for high yield targets, being less efficient when led under below-optimal nitrogen fertilization.

Synthesis and characterization of ternary hybrid material based on poly-o-methoxyaniline and poly(ethylene oxide) in mesostructured V(2)O(5)

New hybrid composites based on mesostructured V(2)O(5) containing intercalated poly(ethylene oxide), poly-o-methoxyaniline and poly(ethylene oxide)/poly-o-methoxyaniline were prepared. The results suggest that the polymers were intercalated into the layers of the mesostructured V(2)O(5). Electrochemical studies showed that the presence of both polymers in the mesostructured V(2)O(5) (ternary hybrid) leads to an increase in total charge and stability after several cycles compared with binary hybrid composites. This fact makes this material a potential component as cathode for lithium ion intercalation and further, a promising candidate for applications in batteries.

Calcium Carbonate Particle Growth Depending on Coupling among Adjacent Layers in Hybrid LB/LbL Films

There are practical and academic situations that justify the study of calcium carbonate crystallization and especially of systems that are associated with organic matrices and a confined medium. Despite the fact that many different matrices have been studied, the use of well-behaved, thin organic films may provide new knowledge about this system. In this work, we have studied the growth of calcium carbonate particles on well-defined organic matrices that were formed by layer-by-layer (LbL) polyelectrolyte films deposited on phospholipid Langmuir-Blodgett films (LB). We were able to change the surface electrical charge density of the LB films by changing the proportions of a negatively charged lipid, the sodium salt of dimyristoyl-sn-glycero-phosphatidyl acid (DMPA), and a zwitterionic lipid. dimyristoyl-sn-glycero-phosphatidylethanolamine (DMPE). This affects the subsequent polyelectrolyte LbL film deposition, which also changes the the nature of the bonding (electrostatic interaction or hydrogen bonding). This approach allowed for the formation of calcium carbonate particles of different final shapes, roughnesses, and sizes. The masses of deposited lipids, polyelectrolytes, and calcium cabonate were quantified by the quartz crystal microbalance technique. The structures of obtained particles were analyzed by scanning electron microscopy.

Synthesis, characterization and electrochemical behavior of the vanadium pentoxide/cetyl pyridinium chloride hybrid material

In situ and ex situ studies concerning the new hybrid material vanadium pentoxide xerogel in the presence of the cationic surfactant cetyl pyridinium chloride (V(2)O(5)/CPC) are presented. The in situ characterization studies revealed the presence of a lamellar structure for the V(2)O(5)/CPC hybrid material. The intercalation reaction was evidenced on the basis of the increase in the d-spacing as well as the displacement of the infrared bands toward lower energy levels. Electrochemical studies comprising the cyclic voltammetry and the electrochemical impedance spectroscopy techniques showed that the behavior of the hybrid material is considerably influenced by the electrolyte composition. The ion insertion/de-insertion into the V(2)O(5) xerogel structure accompanying the charge transfer process is influenced by the solid-state diffusion process modeled by using the finite-space Warburg element.

Synthesis and electrochemical properties of vanadyl phosphate di-hydrate/polyaniline derivatives hybrid films

Vanadyl phosphate and its hybrid compounds have proven to undergo electrochemical intercalation and de-intercalation of lithium ions, which enables its use as cathode material for Li ion rechargeable batteries. In this context, vanadyl phosphate di-hydrate/polyaniline derivatives hybrid films were synthesized via the exfoliation and reconstruction approach in order to evaluate their potential use as cathode in ion lithium batteries. X-ray diffraction patterns indicate that the lamellar structure of the inorganic matrix is maintained, consistent with the topotactic process. In the scanning electron micrographs, hybrid films exhibit rough surface consisting of warped and cracked crystallites, quite different from vanadyl phosphate di-hydrate square platelets crystallites. Electrochemical evaluation using cyclic voltammetry and charge-discharge galvanostatic techniques shows small differences between the charge and the discharge curves, indicating an irreversibility of the hybrid systems. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Influence of Modified Posterior Reconstruction of the Rhabdosphincter on Early Recovery of Continence and Anastomotic Leakage Rates after Robot-Assisted Radical Prostatectomy

Background: Posterior reconstruction (PR) of the rhabdosphincter has been previously described during retropubic radical prostatectomy, and shorter times to return of urinary continence were reported using this technical modification. This technique has also been applied during robot-assisted radical prostatectomy (RARP); however, contradictory results have been reported. Objective: We describe here a modified technique for PR of the rhabdosphincter during RARP and report its impact on early recovery of urinary continence and on cystographic leakage rates. Design, setting, and participants: We analyzed 803 consecutive patients who underwent RARP by a single surgeon over a 12-mo period: 330 without performing PR and 473 with PR. Surgical procedure: The reconstruction was performed using two 6-in 3-0 Poliglecaprone sutures tied together. The free edge of the remaining Denonvillier`s fascia was identified after prostatectomy and approximated to the posterior aspect of the rhabdosphincter and the posterior median raphe using one arm of the continuous suture. The second layer of the reconstruction was then performed with the other arm of the suture, approximating the posterior lip of the bladder neck and vesicoprostatic muscle to the posterior urethral edge. Measurements: Continence rates were assessed with a self-administrated, validated questionnaire (Expanded Prostate Cancer Index Composite) at 1, 4, 12, and 24 wk after catheter removal. Continence was defined as the use of ""no absorbent pads."" Cystogram was performed in all patients on postoperative day 4 or 5 before catheter removal. Results and limitations: There was no significant difference between the groups with respect to patient age, body mass index, prostate-specific antigen levels, prostate weight, American Urological Association symptom score, estimated blood loss, operative time, number of nerve-sparing procedures, and days with catheter. In the PR group, the continence rates at 1, 4, 12, and 24 wk postoperatively were 22.7%, 42.7%, 91.8%, and 96.3%, respectively; in the non-PR group, the continence rates were 28.7%, 51.6%, 91.1%, and 97%, respectively. The modified PR technique resulted in significantly higher continence rates at 1 and 4 wk after catheter removal (p = 0.048 and 0.016, respectively), although the continence rates at 12 and 24 wk were not significantly affected (p = 0.908 and p = 0.741, respectively). The median interval to recovery of continence was also statistically significantly shorter in the PR group (median: 4 wk; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.39-4.61) when compared to the non-PR group (median: 6 wk; 95% CI: 5.18-6.82; log-rank test, p = 0.037). Finally, the incidence of cystographic leaks was lower in the PR group (0.4% vs 2.1%; p = 0.036). Although the patients` baseline characteristics were similar between the groups, the patients were not preoperatively randomized and unknown confounding factors may have influenced the results. Conclusions: Our modified PR combines the benefits of early recovery of continence reported with the original PR technique with a reinforced watertight closure of the posterior anastomotic wall. Shorter interval to recovery of continence and lower incidence of cystographic leaks were demonstrated with our PR technique when compared to RARP with no reconstruction. (C) 2010 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predictive Factors for Positive Surgical Margins and Their Locations After Robot-Assisted Laparoscopic Radical Prostatectomy

Background: Positive surgical margin (PSM) after radical prostatectomy (RP) has been shown to be an independent predictive factor for cancer recurrence. Several investigations have correlated clinical and histopathologic findings with surgical margin status after open RP. However, few studies have addressed the predictive factors for PSM after robot-assisted laparoscopic RP (RARP). Objective: We sought to identify predictive factors for PSMs and their locations after RARP. Design, setting, and participants: We prospectively analyzed 876 consecutive patients who underwent RARP from January 2008 to May 2009. Intervention: All patients underwent RARP performed by a single surgeon with previous experience of > 1500 cases. Measurements: Stepwise logistic regression was used to identify potential predictive factors for PSM. Three logistic regression models were built: (1) one using preoperative variables only, (2) another using all variables (preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative) combined, and (3) one created to identify potential predictive factors for PSM location. Preoperative variables entered into the models included age, body mass index (BMI), prostate-specific antigen, clinical stage, number of positive cores, percentage of positive cores, and American Urological Association symptom score. Intra-and postoperative variables analyzed were type of nerve sparing, presence of median lobe, percentage of tumor in the surgical specimen, gland size, histopathologic findings, pathologic stage, and pathologic Gleason grade. Results and limitations: In the multivariable analysis including preoperative variables, clinical stage was the only independent predictive factor for PSM, with a higher PSM rate for T3 versus T1c (odds ratio [OR]: 10.7; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.6-43.8) and for T2 versus T1c (OR: 2.9; 95% CI, 1.9-4.6). Considering pre-, intra-, and postoperative variables combined, percentage of tumor, pathologic stage, and pathologic Gleason score were associated with increased risk of PSM in the univariable analysis (p < 0.001 for all variables). However, in the multivariable analysis, pathologic stage (pT2 vs pT1; OR: 2.9; 95% CI, 1.9-4.6) and percentage of tumor in the surgical specimen (OR: 8.7; 95% CI, 2.2-34.5; p = 0.0022) were the only independent predictive factors for PSM. Finally, BMI was shown to be an independent predictive factor(OR: 1.1; 95% CI, 1.0-1.3; p = 0.0119) for apical PSMs, with increasing BMI predicting higher incidence of apex location. Because most of our patients were referred from other centers, the biopsy technique and the number of cores were not standardized in our series. Conclusions: Clinical stage was the only preoperative variable independently associated with PSM after RARP. Pathologic stage and percentage of tumor in the surgical specimen were identified as independent predictive factors for PSMs when analyzing pre-, intra-, and postoperative variables combined. BMI was shown to be an independent predictive factor for apical PSMs. (C) 2010 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.

Periurethral Suspension Stitch During Robot-Assisted Laparoscopic Radical Prostatectomy: Description of the Technique and Continence Outcomes

Background: Several studies have shown that robot-assisted laparoscopic radical prostatectomy (RALP) is feasible, with favorable complication rates and short hospital times. However, the early recovery of urinary continence remains a challenge to be overcome. Objective: We describe our technique of periurethral retropubic suspension stitch during RALP and report its impact on early recovery of urinary continence. Design, setting, and participants: We analyze prospectively 331 consecutive patients who underwent RALP, 94 without the placement of suspension stitch (group 1) and 237 with the application of the suspension stitch (group 2). Surgical procedure: The only difference between the groups was the placement of the puboperiurethral stitch after the ligation of the dorsal venous complex (DVC). The periurethral retropubic stitch was placed using a 12-in monofilament polyglytone suture on a CTI needle. The stitch was passed from right to left between the urethra and DVC, and then through the periostium on the pubic bone. The stitch was passed again through the DVC, and then through the pubic bone in a figure eight, and then tied. Measurements: Continence rates were assessed with a self-administered validated questionnaire (Expanded Prostate Cancer Index Composite [EPIC] at 1, 3, 6, and 12 mo after the procedure. Continence was defined as the use of no absorbent pads or no leakage of urine. Results and limitations: In group 1, the continence rate at 1, 3, 6, and 12 mo postoperatively was 33%, 83%, 94.7%, and 95.7%, respectively; in group 2, the continence rate was 40%, 92.8%, 97.9%, and 97.9%, respectively. The suspension technique resulted in significantly greater continence rates at 3 mo after RALP (p = 0.013). The median/mean interval to recovery of continence was also statistically significantly shorter in the suspension group (median: 6 wk; mean: 7.338 wk: 95% confidence interval [CI]: 6.387-8.288) compared to the non-suspension group (median: 7 wk; mean: 9.585 wk: 95% CI: 7.558-11.612; log rank test, p = 0.02). Conclusions: The suspension stitch during RALP resulted in a statistically significantly shorter interval to recovery of continence and higher continence rates at 3 mo after the procedure. (C) 2009 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Pentafecta: A New Concept for Reporting Outcomes of Robot-Assisted Laparoscopic Radical Prostatectomy

Background: Widespread use of prostate-specific antigen screening has resulted in younger and healthier men being diagnosed with prostate cancer. Their demands and expectations of surgical intervention are much higher and cannot be adequately addressed with the classic trifecta outcome measures. Objective: A new and more comprehensive method for reporting outcomes after radical prostatectomy, the pentafecta, is proposed. Design, setting, and participants: From January 2008 through September 2009, details of 1111 consecutive patients who underwent robot-assisted radical prostatectomy performed by a single surgeon were retrospectively analyzed. Of 626 potent men, 332 who underwent bilateral nerve sparing and who had 1 yr of follow-up were included in the study group. Measurements: In addition to the traditional trifecta outcomes, two perioperative variables were included in the pentafecta: no postoperative complications and negative surgical margins. Patients who attained the trifecta and concurrently the two additional outcomes were considered as having achieved the pentafecta. A logistic regression model was created to evaluate independent factors for achieving the pentafecta. Results and limitations: Continence, potency, biochemical recurrence-free survival, and trifecta rates at 12 mo were 96.4%, 89.8%, 96.4%, and 83.1%, respectively. With regard to the perioperative outcomes, 93.4% had no postoperative complication and 90.7% had negative surgical margins. The pentafecta rate at 12 mo was 70.8%. On multivariable analysis, patient age (p = 0.001) was confirmed as the only factor independently associated with the pentafecta. Conclusions: A more comprehensive approach for reporting prostate surgery outcomes, the pentafecta, is being proposed. We believe that pentafecta outcomes more accurately represent patients` expectations after minimally invasive surgery for prostate cancer. This approach may be beneficial and may be used when counseling patients with clinically localized disease. (C) 2011 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.

Occurrence of TRGV-BJ hybrid gene in SV40-transformed fibroblast cell lines

Illegitimate V(D)J-recombination in lymphoid malignancies involves rearrangements in immunoglobulin or T-cell receptor genes, and these rearrangements may play a role in oncogenic events. High frequencies of TRGV-BJ hybrid gene (rearrangement between the TRB and TRG loci at 7q35 and 7p14-15, respectively) have been detected in lymphocytes from patients with ataxia telangiectasia (AT), and also in patients with lymphoid malignancies. Although the TRGV-BJ gene has been described only in T-lymphocytes, we previously detected the presence of TRGV-BJ hybrid gene in the genomic DNA extracted from SV40-transformed AT5BIVA fibroblasts from an AT patient. Aiming to determine whether the AT phenotype or the SV40 transformation could be responsible for the production of the hybrid gene by illegitimate V(D)J-recombination, DNA samples were extracted from primary and SV40-transformed (normal and AT) cell lines, following Nested-PCR with TRGV- and TRBJ-specific primers. The hybrid gene was only detected in SV40-transformed fibroblasts (AT-5BIVA and MRC-5). Sequence alignment of the cloned PCR products using the BLAST program confirmed that the fragments corresponded to the TRGV-BJ hybrid gene. The present results indicate that the rearrangement can be produced in nonlymphoid cells, probably as a consequence of the genomic instability caused by the SV40-transformation, and independently of ATM gene mutation.

Micro-hardness evaluation of a micro-hybrid composite resin light cured with halogen light, light-emitting diode and argon ion laser

This in vitro study aimed to determine whether the micro-hardness of a composite resin is modified by the light units or by the thickness of the increment. Composite resin disks were divided into 15 groups (n = 5), according to the factors under study: composite resin thickness (0 mm, 1 mm, 2 mm , 3 mm and 4 mm) and light units. The light activation was performed with halogen light (HL) (40 s, 500 mW/cm(2)), argon ion laser (AL) (30 s, 600 mW/cm(2)) or light-emitting diode (LED) (30 s, 400 mW/cm(2)). Vickers micro-hardness tests were performed after 1 week and were carried out on the top surface (0 mm-control) and at different depths of the samples. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) and Tukey tests (P a parts per thousand currency signaEuro parts per thousand 0.05) revealed no statistically significant difference among the light units for the groups of 0 mm and 1 mm thickness. At 2 mm depth, the AL was not statistically different from the HL, but the latter showed higher micro-hardness values than the LED. In groups with 3 mm and 4 mm thickness, the HL also showed higher micro-hardness values than the groups activated by the AL and the LED. Only the HL presented satisfactory polymerization with 3 mm of thickness. With a 4 mm increment no light unit was able to promote satisfactory polymerization.

Effects of Nd:YAG Laser Irradiation on the Hybrid Layer of Different Adhesive Systems

Purpose: The aim of this in vitro study was to evaluate the microtensile bond strength (mu TBS) and hybrid layer morphology of different adhesive systems, either followed by treatment with Nd:YAG laser irradiation or not. Previous studies have shown the effects of Nd:YAG laser irradiation on the dentin surface at restoration margins, but there are few reports about the significance of the irradiation on the hybrid layer. Materials and Methods: The flattened coronal and root dentin samples of 24 bovine teeth were randomly divided into 8 groups, according to the adhesive system used - Scotchbond Multi Purpose (SBMP) or Clearfil SE Bond (CSEB) - and were either irradiated with Nd:YAG or not, with different parameters: 0.8 W/10 Hz, 0.8 W/20 Hz, 1.2 W/10 Hz, 1.2 W/20 Hz. The left sides of specimens were the control groups, and right sides were irradiated. A composite crown was built over bonded surfaces and stored in water (24 h at 37 degrees C). Specimens were sectioned vertically into slabs that were subjected to mu TBS testing and observed by SEM. Results: Control groups (27.81 +/- 1.38) showed statistically higher values than lased groups (21.37 +/- 0.99), and CSEB control group values (31.26 +/- 15.71) were statistically higher than those of SBMP (24.3 +/- 10.66). There were no significant differences between CSEB (20.34 +/- 10.01) and SBMP (22.43 +/- 9.82) lased groups. Among parameters tested, 0.8 W/10 Hz showed the highest value (25.54 +/- 11.74). Nd:YAG laser irradiation caused dentin to melt under the adhesive layer of both adhesive systems tested. Conclusion: With the parameters used in this study, Nd:YAG laser irradiation of the hybrid layer promoted morphological changes in dentin and negatively influenced the bond strength of both adhesive systems.