Risk optimization of a steel frame communications tower subject to tornado winds

The structural engineering community in Brazil faces new challenges with the recent occurrence of high intensity tornados. Satellite surveillance data shows that the area covering the south-east of Brazil, Uruguay and some of Argentina is one of the world most tornado-prone areas, second only to the infamous tornado alley in central United States. The design of structures subject to tornado winds is a typical example of decision making in the presence of uncertainty. Structural design involves finding a good balance between the competing goals of safety and economy. This paper presents a methodology to find the optimum balance between these goals in the presence of uncertainty. In this paper, reliability-based risk optimization is used to find the optimal safety coefficient that minimizes the total expected cost of a steel frame communications tower, subject to extreme storm and tornado wind loads. The technique is not new, but it is applied to a practical problem of increasing interest to Brazilian structural engineers. The problem is formulated in the partial safety factor format used in current design codes, with all additional partial factor introduced to serve as optimization variable. The expected cost of failure (or risk) is defined as the product of a. limit state exceedance probability by a limit state exceedance cost. These costs include costs of repairing, rebuilding, and paying compensation for injury and loss of life. The total expected failure cost is the sum of individual expected costs over all failure modes. The steel frame communications, tower subject of this study has become very common in Brazil due to increasing mobile phone coverage. The study shows that optimum reliability is strongly dependent on the cost (or consequences) of failure. Since failure consequences depend oil actual tower location, it turn,,; out that different optimum designs should be used in different locations. Failure consequences are also different for the different parties involved in the design, construction and operation of the tower. Hence, it is important that risk is well understood by the parties involved, so that proper contracts call be made. The investigation shows that when non-structural terms dominate design costs (e.g, in residential or office buildings) it is not too costly to over-design; this observation is in agreement with the observed practice for non-optimized structural systems. In this situation, is much easier to loose money by under-design. When by under-design. When structural material cost is a significant part of design cost (e.g. concrete dam or bridge), one is likely to lose significantmoney by over-design. In this situation, a cost-risk-benefit optimization analysis is highly recommended. Finally, the study also shows that under time-varying loads like tornados, the optimum reliability is strongly dependent on the selected design life.

Validation of reference genes for gene expression studies in the honey bee, Apis mellifera, by quantitative real-time RT-PCR

For obtaining accurate and reliable gene expression results it is essential that quantitative real-time RT-PCR (qRT-PCR) data are normalized with appropriate reference genes. The current exponential increase in postgenomic studies on the honey bee, Apis mellifera, makes the standardization of qRT-PCR results an important task for ongoing community efforts. For this aim we selected four candidate reference genes (actin, ribosomal protein 49, elongation factor 1-alpha, tbp-association factor) and used three software-based approaches (geNorm, BestKeeper and NormFinder) to evaluate the suitability of these genes as endogenous controls. Their expression was examined during honey bee development, in different tissues, and after juvenile hormone exposure. Furthermore, the importance of choosing an appropriate reference gene was investigated for two developmentally regulated target genes. The results led us to consider all four candidate genes as suitable genes for normalization in A. mellifera. However, each condition evaluated in this study revealed a specific set of genes as the most appropriated ones.

Data collapse, scaling functions, and analytical solutions of generalized growth models

We consider a nontrivial one-species population dynamics model with finite and infinite carrying capacities. Time-dependent intrinsic and extrinsic growth rates are considered in these models. Through the model per capita growth rate we obtain a heuristic general procedure to generate scaling functions to collapse data into a simple linear behavior even if an extrinsic growth rate is included. With this data collapse, all the models studied become independent from the parameters and initial condition. Analytical solutions are found when time-dependent coefficients are considered. These solutions allow us to perceive nontrivial transitions between species extinction and survival and to calculate the transition's critical exponents. Considering an extrinsic growth rate as a cancer treatment, we show that the relevant quantity depends not only on the intensity of the treatment, but also on when the cancerous cell growth is maximum.

A reliable measure of similarity based on dependency for short time series: an application to gene expression networks

Background: Microarray techniques have become an important tool to the investigation of genetic relationships and the assignment of different phenotypes. Since microarrays are still very expensive, most of the experiments are performed with small samples. This paper introduces a method to quantify dependency between data series composed of few sample points. The method is used to construct gene co-expression subnetworks of highly significant edges. Results: The results shown here are for an adapted subset of a Saccharomyces cerevisiae gene expression data set with low temporal resolution and poor statistics. The method reveals common transcription factors with a high confidence level and allows the construction of subnetworks with high biological relevance that reveals characteristic features of the processes driving the organism adaptations to specific environmental conditions. Conclusion: Our method allows a reliable and sophisticated analysis of microarray data even under severe constraints. The utilization of systems biology improves the biologists ability to elucidate the mechanisms underlying celular processes and to formulate new hypotheses.

Factor (NF) kappa B polymorphism is associated with heart function in patients with heart failure

Background: Cardiac remodeling is generally an adverse sign and is associated with heart failure (HF) progression. NFkB, an important transcription factor involved in many cell survival pathways, has been implicated in the remodeling process, but its role in the heart is still controversial. Recently, a promoter polymorphism associated with a lesser activation of the NFKB1 gene was also associated with Dilated Cardiomyopathy. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the association of this polymorphism with clinical and functional characteristics of heart failure patients of different etiologies. Methods: A total of 493 patients with HF and 916 individuals from a cohort of individuals from the general population were investigated. The NFKB1-94 insertion/deletion ATTG polymorphism was genotyped by High Resolution Melt discrimination. Allele and genotype frequencies were compared between groups. In addition, frequencies or mean values of different phenotypes associated with cardiovascular disease were compared between genotype groups. Finally, patients were prospectively followed-up for death incidence and genotypes for the polymorphism were compared regarding disease onset and mortality incidence in HF patients. Results: We did not find differences in genotype and allelic frequencies between cases and controls. Interestingly, we found an association between the ATTG(1)/ATTG(1) genotype with right ventricle diameter (P = 0.001), left ventricle diastolic diameter (P = 0.04), and ejection fraction (EF) (P = 0.016), being the genotype ATTG(1)/ATTG(1) more frequent in patients with EF lower than 50% (P = 0.01). Finally, we observed a significantly earlier disease onset in ATTG(1)/ATTG(1) carriers. Conclusion: There is no genotype or allelic association between the studied polymorphism and the occurrence of HF in the tested population. However, our data suggest that a diminished activation of NFKB1, previously associated with the ATTG(1)/ATTG(1) genotype, may act modulating on the onset of disease and, once the individual has HF, the genotype may modulate disease severity by increasing cardiac remodeling and function deterioration.

Cardiomyopathy, adult valve disease and heart failure in South America

Continued assessment of temporal trends in mortality and epidemiology of specific cardiovascular diseases in South America is needed to provide a scientific basis for rational allocation of the limited healthcare resources and introduction of strategies to reduce risk and predict the future burden of cardiovascular disease. The epidemiology of cardiomyopathies, adult valve disease and heart failure (HF) in South America is reviewed here. Diseases of the circulatory system are the main cause of death based on data from about 50% of the South American population. Among the cardiovascular causes of death, cerebrovascular disease is predominant followed by ischaemic heart disease, other heart diseases and hypertensive disease. Of note, cerebrovascular disease is the main cause of death in women, and race also influenced cardiovascular mortality rates. HF is the most important cardiovascular reason for admission to hospital due to cardiovascular disease of ischaemic, idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathic, valvular, hypertensive and chagasic aetiologies. Also, mortality due to HF is high, especially owing to Chagas' disease. HF and aetiologies associated with HF are responsible for 6.3% of deaths. Rheumatic fever is the leading cause of valvular heart disease. The findings have important public health implications because the allocation of healthcare resources, and strategies to reduce the risk of HF should also consider controlling Chagas' disease and rheumatic fever in South American countries.

Qualitative Analysis of the Interdisciplinary Interaction between Data Analysis Specialists and Novice Clinical Researchers

Background: The inherent complexity of statistical methods and clinical phenomena compel researchers with diverse domains of expertise to work in interdisciplinary teams, where none of them have a complete knowledge in their counterpart's field. As a result, knowledge exchange may often be characterized by miscommunication leading to misinterpretation, ultimately resulting in errors in research and even clinical practice. Though communication has a central role in interdisciplinary collaboration and since miscommunication can have a negative impact on research processes, to the best of our knowledge, no study has yet explored how data analysis specialists and clinical researchers communicate over time. Methods/Principal Findings: We conducted qualitative analysis of encounters between clinical researchers and data analysis specialists (epidemiologist, clinical epidemiologist, and data mining specialist). These encounters were recorded and systematically analyzed using a grounded theory methodology for extraction of emerging themes, followed by data triangulation and analysis of negative cases for validation. A policy analysis was then performed using a system dynamics methodology looking for potential interventions to improve this process. Four major emerging themes were found. Definitions using lay language were frequently employed as a way to bridge the language gap between the specialties. Thought experiments presented a series of ""what if'' situations that helped clarify how the method or information from the other field would behave, if exposed to alternative situations, ultimately aiding in explaining their main objective. Metaphors and analogies were used to translate concepts across fields, from the unfamiliar to the familiar. Prolepsis was used to anticipate study outcomes, thus helping specialists understand the current context based on an understanding of their final goal. Conclusion/Significance: The communication between clinical researchers and data analysis specialists presents multiple challenges that can lead to errors.

Work disability remains a major problem in rheumatoid arthritis in the 2000s: data from 32 countries in the QUEST-RA Study

Introduction: Work disability is a major consequence of rheumatoid arthritis (RA), associated not only with traditional disease activity variables, but also more significantly with demographic, functional, occupational, and societal variables. Recent reports suggest that the use of biologic agents offers potential for reduced work disability rates, but the conclusions are based on surrogate disease activity measures derived from studies primarily from Western countries. Methods: The Quantitative Standard Monitoring of Patients with RA (QUEST-RA) multinational database of 8,039 patients in 86 sites in 32 countries, 16 with high gross domestic product (GDP) (>24K US dollars (USD) per capita) and 16 low-GDP countries (<11K USD), was analyzed for work and disability status at onset and over the course of RA and clinical status of patients who continued working or had stopped working in high-GDP versus low-GDP countries according to all RA Core Data Set measures. Associations of work disability status with RA Core Data Set variables and indices were analyzed using descriptive statistics and regression analyses. Results: At the time of first symptoms, 86% of men (range 57%-100% among countries) and 64% (19%-87%) of women <65 years were working. More than one third (37%) of these patients reported subsequent work disability because of RA. Among 1,756 patients whose symptoms had begun during the 2000s, the probabilities of continuing to work were 80% (95% confidence interval (CI) 78%-82%) at 2 years and 68% (95% CI 65%-71%) at 5 years, with similar patterns in high-GDP and low-GDP countries. Patients who continued working versus stopped working had significantly better clinical status for all clinical status measures and patient self-report scores, with similar patterns in high-GDP and low-GDP countries. However, patients who had stopped working in high-GDP countries had better clinical status than patients who continued working in low-GDP countries. The most significant identifier of work disability in all subgroups was Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) functional disability score. Conclusions: Work disability rates remain high among people with RA during this millennium. In low-GDP countries, people remain working with high levels of disability and disease activity. Cultural and economic differences between societies affect work disability as an outcome measure for RA.

Detection of dengue virus in saliva and urine by real time RT-PCR

Early diagnosis of dengue virus (DENV) infection is important for patient management and control of dengue outbreaks. The objective of this study was to analyze the usefulness of urine and saliva samples for early diagnosis of DENV infection by real time RT-PCR. Two febrile patients, who have been attended at the General Hospital of the School of Medicine of Ribeirao Preto, Sao Paulo University were included in the study. Serum, urine and saliva samples collected from both patients were subjected to real time RT-PCR for DENV detection and quantification. Dengue RNA was detected in serum, urine and saliva samples of both patients. Patient 1 was infected with DENV-2 and patient 2 with DENV-3. Data presented in this study suggest that urine and saliva could be used as alternative samples for early diagnosis of dengue virus infection when blood samples are difficult to obtain, e.g.,in newborns and patients with hemorrhagic syndromes.

New Epidemiological Data on Brazilian Spotted Fever in an Endemic Area of the State of Sao Paulo, Brazil

The present work evaluated rickettsial infection in dogs and their ticks in an area endemic for Brazilian spotted fever (BSF) in the metropolitan area of Sao Paulo, Brazil, where the tick Amblyomma aureolatum was presumed to be the vector of the disease. Ticks were collected on dogs from 185 houses, encompassing single infestations by Rhipicephalus sanguineus, Amblyomma aureolatum, Amblyomma longirostre, or Amblyomma sp. in dogs from 60 (32.4%), 77 (41.6%), 2 (1.1%), and 25 (13.5%) houses, respectively; 19 (10.3%) houses had dogs with mixed infestations by R. sanguineus and A. aureolatum; 1 (0.5%) house had dogs with infestations by A. aureolatum and A. longirostre; and 1 (0.5%) house had dogs with infestations by R. sanguineus and Amblyomma sp. Overall, A. aureolatum was present in dogs from 97 (52.4%) houses, and R. sanguineus in dogs from 80 (43.2%) houses. A total of 287 ticks (130 A. aureolatum and 157 R. sanguineus) infesting dogs from 98 houses were selected for testing by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) targeting rickettsial genes. Overall, 3.1% of the A. aureolatum ticks were infected by Rickettsia bellii, and 1.3% of the R. sanguineus were infected by Ricketttsii rickettsii. For serology, we selected 23 dogs living in and in the vicinity of the house where the R. rickettsii-infected ticks were collected. The indirect fluorescent antibody (IFA) test detected antibodies reactive with R. rickettsii in sera from 16 (69.6%) dogs, with titers ranging from 256 to 32,768. It is established that Amblyomma aureolatum is a vector of R. rickettsii in the Sao Paulo metropolitan area, but our results highlight for the first time in Brazil, a possible role of R. sanguineus in the epidemiology of R. rickettsii, corroborating previous findings in Mexico and the United States, where R. sanguineus has been implicated in the transmission of R. rickettsii to humans.

Fast ray-tracing algorithm for circumstellar structures (FRACS) II. Disc parameters of the B[e] supergiant CPD-57 degrees 2874 from VLTI/MIDI data

Context. B[e] supergiants are luminous, massive post-main sequence stars exhibiting non-spherical winds, forbidden lines, and hot dust in a disc-like structure. The physical properties of their rich and complex circumstellar environment (CSE) are not well understood, partly because these CSE cannot be easily resolved at the large distances found for B[e] supergiants (typically greater than or similar to 1 kpc). Aims. From mid-IR spectro-interferometric observations obtained with VLTI/MIDI we seek to resolve and study the CSE of the Galactic B[e] supergiant CPD-57 degrees 2874. Methods. For a physical interpretation of the observables (visibilities and spectrum) we use our ray-tracing radiative transfer code (FRACS), which is optimised for thermal spectro-interferometric observations. Results. Thanks to the short computing time required by FRACS (<10 s per monochromatic model), best-fit parameters and uncertainties for several physical quantities of CPD-57 degrees 2874 were obtained, such as inner dust radius, relative flux contribution of the central source and of the dusty CSE, dust temperature profile, and disc inclination. Conclusions. The analysis of VLTI/MIDI data with FRACS allowed one of the first direct determinations of physical parameters of the dusty CSE of a B[e] supergiant based on interferometric data and using a full model-fitting approach. In a larger context, the study of B[e] supergiants is important for a deeper understanding of the complex structure and evolution of hot, massive stars.

The BRAzilian Seismographic Integrated Systems (BRASIS): infrastructure and data management

In geophysics and seismology, raw data need to be processed to generate useful information that can be turned into knowledge by researchers. The number of sensors that are acquiring raw data is increasing rapidly. Without good data management systems, more time can be spent in querying and preparing datasets for analyses than in acquiring raw data. Also, a lot of good quality data acquired at great effort can be lost forever if they are not correctly stored. Local and international cooperation will probably be reduced, and a lot of data will never become scientific knowledge. For this reason, the Seismological Laboratory of the Institute of Astronomy, Geophysics and Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Sao Paulo (IAG-USP) has concentrated fully on its data management system. This report describes the efforts of the IAG-USP to set up a seismology data management system to facilitate local and international cooperation.

Severe Plasmodium vivax malaria exhibits marked inflammatory imbalance

Background: Despite clinical descriptions of severe vivax malaria cases having been reported, data regarding immunological and inflammatory patterns are scarce. In this report, the inflammatory and immunological status of both mild and severe vivax malaria cases are compared in order to explore immunopathological events in this disease. Methods and Results: Active and passive malaria case detections were performed during 2007 in Buritis, Rondonia, in the Brazilian Amazon. A total of 219 participants enrolled the study. Study individuals were classified according to the presence of Plasmodium vivax infection within four groups: non-infected (n = 90), asymptomatic (n = 60), mild (n = 50) and severe vivax infection (n = 19). A diagnosis of malaria was made by microscopy and molecular assays. Since at present no clear criteria define severe vivax malaria, this study adapted the consensual criteria from falciparum malaria. Patients with severe P. vivax infection were younger, had lived for shorter time in the endemic area, and recalled having experienced less previous malaria episodes than individuals with no malaria infection and with mild or asymptomatic infection. Strong linear trends were identified regarding increasing plasma levels of C reactive protein (CRP), serum creatinine, bilirubins and the graduation of disease severity. Plasma levels of tumour necrosis factor (TNF), interferon-gamma(IFN-gamma) and also IFN-gamma/interleukin-10 ratios were increased and exhibited a linear trend with gradual augmentation of disease severity. Both laboratory parameters of organ dysfunction and inflammatory cytokines were reduced during anti-parasite therapy in those patients with severe disease. Conclusion: Different clinical presentations of vivax malaria infection present strong association with activation of pro-inflammatory responses and cytokine imbalance. These findings are of utmost importance to improve current knowledge about physiopathological concepts of this serious widespread disease.

Polar organic marker compounds in atmospheric aerosols during the LBA-SMOCC 2002 biomass burning experiment in Rondonia, Brazil: sources and source processes, time series, diel variations and size distributions

Measurements of polar organic marker compounds were performed on aerosols that were collected at a pasture site in the Amazon basin (Rondonia, Brazil) using a high-volume dichotomous sampler (HVDS) and a Micro-Orifice Uniform Deposit Impactor (MOUDI) within the framework of the 2002 LBA-SMOCC (Large-Scale Biosphere Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia - Smoke Aerosols, Clouds, Rainfall, and Climate: Aerosols From Biomass Burning Perturb Global and Regional Climate) campaign. The campaign spanned the late dry season (biomass burning), a transition period, and the onset of the wet season (clean conditions). In the present study a more detailed discussion is presented compared to previous reports on the behavior of selected polar marker compounds, including levoglucosan, malic acid, isoprene secondary organic aerosol (SOA) tracers and tracers for fungal spores. The tracer data are discussed taking into account new insights that recently became available into their stability and/or aerosol formation processes. During all three periods, levoglucosan was the most dominant identified organic species in the PM(2.5) size fraction of the HVDS samples. In the dry period levoglucosan reached concentrations of up to 7.5 mu g m(-3) and exhibited diel variations with a nighttime prevalence. It was closely associated with the PM mass in the size-segregated samples and was mainly present in the fine mode, except during the wet period where it peaked in the coarse mode. Isoprene SOA tracers showed an average concentration of 250 ng m(-3) during the dry period versus 157 ng m(-3) during the transition period and 52 ng m(-3) during the wet period. Malic acid and the 2-methyltetrols exhibited a different size distribution pattern, which is consistent with different aerosol formation processes (i.e., gas-to-particle partitioning in the case of malic acid and heterogeneous formation from gas-phase precursors in the case of the 2-methyltetrols). The 2-methyltetrols were mainly associated with the fine mode during all periods, while malic acid was prevalent in the fine mode only during the dry and transition periods, and dominant in the coarse mode during the wet period. The sum of the fungal spore tracers arabitol, mannitol, and erythritol in the PM(2.5) fraction of the HVDS samples during the dry, transition, and wet periods was, on average, 54 ng m(-3), 34 ng m(-3), and 27 ng m(-3), respectively, and revealed minor day/night variation. The mass size distributions of arabitol and mannitol during all periods showed similar patterns and an association with the coarse mode, consistent with their primary origin. The results show that even under the heavy smoke conditions of the dry period a natural background with contributions from bioaerosols and isoprene SOA can be revealed. The enhancement in isoprene SOA in the dry season is mainly attributed to an increased acidity of the aerosols, increased NO(x) concentrations and a decreased wet deposition.

Numerical evidence against a conjecture on the cover time of planar graphs

We investigate a conjecture on the cover times of planar graphs by means of large Monte Carlo simulations. The conjecture states that the cover time tau (G(N)) of a planar graph G(N) of N vertices and maximal degree d is lower bounded by tau (G(N)) >= C(d)N(lnN)(2) with C(d) = (d/4 pi) tan(pi/d), with equality holding for some geometries. We tested this conjecture on the regular honeycomb (d = 3), regular square (d = 4), regular elongated triangular (d = 5), and regular triangular (d = 6) lattices, as well as on the nonregular Union Jack lattice (d(min) = 4, d(max) = 8). Indeed, the Monte Carlo data suggest that the rigorous lower bound may hold as an equality for most of these lattices, with an interesting issue in the case of the Union Jack lattice. The data for the honeycomb lattice, however, violate the bound with the conjectured constant. The empirical probability distribution function of the cover time for the square lattice is also briefly presented, since very little is known about cover time probability distribution functions in general.