Forward-looking versus recursive-dynamic modeling in climate policy analysis: A comparison

This paper develops a multi-regional general equilibrium model for climate policy analysis based on the latest version of the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. We develop two versions so that we can solve the model either as a fully inter-temporal optimization problem (forward-looking, perfect foresight) or recursively. The standard EPPA model on which these models are based is solved recursively, and it is necessary to simplify some aspects of it to make inter-temporal solution possible. The forward-looking capability allows one to better address economic and policy issues such as borrowing and banking of GHG allowances, efficiency implications of environmental tax recycling, endogenous depletion of fossil resources, international capital flows, and optimal emissions abatement paths among others. To evaluate the solution approaches, we benchmark each version to the same macroeconomic path, and then compare the behavior of the two versions under a climate policy that restricts greenhouse gas emissions. We find that the energy sector and CO(2) price behavior are similar in both versions (in the recursive version of the model we force the inter-temporal theoretical efficiency result that abatement through time should be allocated such that the CO(2) price rises at the interest rate.) The main difference that arises is that the macroeconomic costs are substantially lower in the forward-looking version of the model, since it allows consumption shifting as an additional avenue of adjustment to the policy. On the other hand, the simplifications required for solving the model as an optimization problem, such as dropping the full vintaging of the capital stock and fewer explicit technological options, likely have effects on the results. Moreover, inter-temporal optimization with perfect foresight poorly represents the real economy where agents face high levels of uncertainty that likely lead to higher costs than if they knew the future with certainty. We conclude that while the forward-looking model has value for some problems, the recursive model produces similar behavior in the energy sector and provides greater flexibility in the details of the system that can be represented. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sexual maturity and egg production in an unexploited population of the red squat lobster Pleuroncodes monodon (Decapoda, Galatheidae) from Central America

The squat lobster Pleuroncodes monodon is one of the most common and abundant galatheid species in the deepwater fishery of Pacific coast of America. In contrast with Peru and Chile, the red squat lobster is not commercially exploited in Costa Rica. Here we estimated the size of sexual maturity and analysed egg production in P. monodon from the Pacific of Costa Rica; the results might be important for an adequate management strategy when initiating a sustainable fishery of this resource in Costa Rica. Analyses of allometric growth revealed that females and males reached their morphological sexual maturity at 26.9 and 30.4 mm CL. respectively. The percentage of immature females captured in the present study (54%) suggests that almost half of females are able to reproduce before they are caught. Egg production was positively correlated with body size; females that measured between 24.1 and 29.0 mm CL contributed roughly 90% to the offspring production of the population. Females from Costa Rica had a considerably lower average egg volume (0.039 mm(3)) and higher fecundity (9810) than females from Chile. In comparison to other American galatheids P. monodon from Costa Rica produces numerous but small eggs, a typical strategy of species with a prolonged larval development. An analysis between our results and information published about P. monodon from Chile also revealed differences in the size-frequency distribution shape of both populations. The non-exploited character of the Costa Rican P. monodon population and a latitudinal (temperature-related) cline in body size might be associated with these differences. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

INSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH POLICY-MAKING A Case Study of the Brazilian Central Bank

A number of contemporary studies rightly emphasize the notion that policy outcomes result from institutional determinants. But as a growing literature on institutional development notes, these institutions are themselves impermanent. Sometimes, in crisis moments, institutions are replaced wholesale. More frequently, institutions evolve gradually over time. Using the Brazilian Central Bank as a case study, this article illustrates that the policy-making process itself can be a central driver of gradual institutional development, with institutions evolving through the accumulation of policy choices made over many years and under different policymakers in response to contemporaneous events and unforeseeable economic and political challenges.

Obstructive Sleep Apnea Is Common and Independently Associated With Atrial Fibrillation in Patients With Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy

Background: Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) is associated with arrhythmias and cardiovascular death. Left atrial enlargement and atrial fibrillation (AF) are considered markers for death due to heart failure in patients with HCM. Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is independently associated with heart remodeling and arrhythmias in other populations. We hypothesized that OSA is common and is associated with heart remodeling and AF in patients with HCM. Methods: We evaluated 80 consecutive stable patients with a confirmed diagnosis of HCM by sleep questionnaire, blood tests, echocardiography, and sleep study (overnight respiratory monitoring). Results: OSA (apnea-hypopnea index [AHI] > 15 events/h) was present in 32 patients (40%). Patients with OSA were significantly older (56 [41-64] vs 38.5 [30-53] years, P < .001) and presented higher BMI (28.2 +/- 3.5 vs 25.2 +/- 5.2 kg/m(2), P < .01) and increased left atrial diameter (45 [42-52.8] vs 41 [39-47] mm, P = .01) and aorta diameter (34 [30-37] vs 29 [28-32] mm, P < .001), compared with patients without OSA. Stepwise multiple linear regression showed that the AHI (P = .05) and BMI (P = .06) were associated with left atrial diameter. The AHI was the only variable associated with aorta diameter (P = .01). AF was present in 31% vs 6% of patients with and without OSA, respectively (P < .01). OSA (P = .03) and left atrial diameter (P = .03) were the only factors independently associated with AF. Conclusions: OSA is highly prevalent in patients with HCM and it is associated with left atrial and aortic enlargement. OSA is independently associated with AF, a risk factor for cardiovascular death in this population. CHEST 2010; 137(5):1078-1084

THE POLICY AGENDA OF ISPRM

This paper suggests a comprehensive policy agenda and first steps to be undertaken by the International Society of Physical and Rehabilitation Medicine (ISPRM) in order to realize its humanitarian, professional and scientific mandates. The general aims of ISPRM, as formulated in its guiding documents, the relations with the World Health Organization (WHO) and the United Nations system, and demands of ISPRM`s constituency herein form the basis of this policy agenda Agenda items encompass contributions to the establishment of rehabilitation services worldwide and the development of PRM societies ISPRM`s possible input in general curricula in disability and rehabilitation, and in fighting discrimination against people experiencing disability are discuss. Moreover, the implementation of the International Classification of Functioning. Disability and Health (ICF) in medicine, contributions to WHO guidelines relevant to disability and rehabilitation the provision of a conceptual description of the rehabilitation strategy and the outline of a rehabilitation services matrix are seen as important agenda items of ISPRM`s external policy. With regard to its constituency and internal policy, a definition of the field of competence and a conceptual description of PRM, as well as the development of a consistent and comprehensive congress topic list and congress structure appear to be crucial items. The proposed agenda items serve as a basis for future discussions.

The common p450 oxidoreductase variant A503V is not a modifier gene for 21-hydroxylase deficiency

Context: 21-hydroxylase deficiency (21OHD) is a common genetic disorder caused by mutations in the CYP21A2 gene, which encodes the adrenal 21-hydroxylase, microsomal P450c21. CYP21A2 gene mutations generally correlate well with impaired P450c21 enzymatic activity and the clinical findings in 21OHD, but occasional discrepancies between genotype and phenotype suggest the effects of modifier genes. Mutations in P450 oxidoreductase (POR), the protein that transfers electrons from reduced nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide phosphate to all microsomal P450s, can ameliorate the 21OHD phenotype and, therefore, could be a modifier gene. Objectives: We sought to identify POR variants in patients with 21OHD having discordant phenotype and genotype, and to evaluate their effect on 21-hydroxylase activity. Patients and Methods: We determined the CYP21A2 genotypes of 313 Brazilian patients with 21OHD and correlated the genotype and phenotype. The POR gene was sequenced in 17 patients with discordant genotype and phenotype. Wild-type and A503V POR, and P450c21 were expressed in bacteria and reconstituted in vitro. Activities were assayed by conversion of [C-14] progesterone to deoxycorticosterone and [H-3]17-hydroxyprogesterone to 11-deoxycortisol, and assessed by thin layer chromatography and phosphorimaging. Results: The A503V POR variant was found in 10 of 30 alleles, the same ratio as in the normal population. There were no significant differences in Michaelis constant, maximum velocity and maximum velocity/Michaelis constant of 21-hydroxylase activity supported by wild-type and A503V POR. Conclusion: The only POR missense polymorphism found in atypical 21OHD patients was A503V. Although A503V reduces P450c17 enzymatic activity, it does not influence P450c21 activity, indicating that POR A503V does not modify the 21OHD phenotype.

Spectrum and Prevalence of FP/TMEM127 Gene Mutations in Pheochromocytomas and Paragangliomas

Context Pheochromocytomas and paragangliomas are genetically heterogeneous neural crest-derived neoplasms. We recently identified germline mutations of the novel transmembrane-encoding gene FP/TMEM127 in familial and sporadic pheochromocytomas consistent with a tumor suppressor effect. Objectives To examine the prevalence and spectrum of FP/TMEM127 mutations in pheochromocytomas and paragangliomas and to test the effect of mutations in vitro. Design, Setting, and Participants We sequenced the FP/TMEM127 gene in 990 individuals with pheochromocytomas and/or paragangliomas, including 898 previously unreported cases without mutations in other susceptibility genes from 8 independent worldwide referral centers between January 2009 and June 2010. A multiplex polymerase chain reaction-based method was developed to screen for large gene deletions in 545 of these samples. Confocal microscopy of 5 transfected mutant proteins was used to determine their subcellular localization. Main Outcome Measures The frequency and type of FP/TMEM127 mutation or deletion was assessed and correlated with clinical variables; the subcellular localization of 5 overexpressed mutants was compared with wild-type FP/TMEM127 protein. Results We identified 19 potentially pathogenic FP/TMEM127 germline mutations in 20 independent families, but no large deletions were detected. All mutation carriers had adrenal tumors, including 7 bilateral (P=2.7 x 10(-4)) and/or with familial disease (5 of 20 samples; P=.005). The median age at disease onset in the FP/TMEM127 mutation group was similar to that of patients without a mutation (41.5 vs 45 years, respectively; P=.54). The most common presentation was that of a single benign adrenal tumor in patients older than 40 years. Malignancy was seen in 1 mutation carrier (5%). Expression of 5 novel FP/TMEM127 mutations in cell lines revealed diffuse localization of the mutant proteins in contrast with the discrete multiorganelle distribution of wild-type TMEM127. Conclusions Germline mutations of FP/TMEM127 were associated with pheochromocytoma but not paraganglioma and occured in an age group frequently excluded from genetic screening algorithms. Disease-associated mutations disrupt intracellular distribution of the FP/TMEM127 protein. JAMA. 2010;304(23):2611-2619 www.jama.com

Allergic asthma in patients with common variable immunodeficiency

P>Background: Many patients with common variable immunodeficiency (CVID) have a clinical history suggestive of allergic respiratory disease. However, in such individuals, the prevalence of asthma and the role of atopy have not been well established. The objective of this study was to evaluate pulmonary function and identify asthma in patients with CVID. We also investigated the role of IgE as a trigger of asthma in these patients. Methods: Sixty-two patients diagnosed with CVID underwent spirometry, as well as skin prick testing and in vitro determination of serum-specific IgE levels for aeroallergens, together with bronchial provocation with histamine and allergen. Results: The most common alteration identified through spirometry was obstructive lung disease, which was observed in 29 (47.5%) of the 62 patients evaluated. Eighteen (29.0%) of the 62 patients had a clinical history suggestive of allergic asthma. By the end of the study, asthma had been diagnosed in nine (14.5%) patients and atopy had been identified in six (9.7%). In addition, allergic asthma had been diagnosed in four patients (6.5% of the sample as a whole; 22.2% of the 18 patients with a clinical history suggestive of the diagnosis). Conclusion: In this study, CVID patients testing negative for specific IgE antibodies and suspected of having allergic asthma presented a positive response to bronchial provocation tests with allergens. To our knowledge, this is the first such study. When CVID patients with a history suggestive of allergic asthma test negative on traditional tests, additional tests designed to identify allergic asthma might be conducted.

Molecular profiling of isolated histological components of Wilms tumor implicates a common role for the Wnt signaling pathway in kidney and tumor development

Wilms tumor (WT), a tumor composed of three histological components - blastema (BL), epithelia and stroma - is considered an appropriate model system to study the biological relationship between differentiation and tumorigenesis. To investigate molecular associations between nephrogenesis and WT, the gene expression pattern of individual cellular components was analyzed, using a customized platform containing 4,608 genes. WT gene expression patterns were compared to genes regulated during kidney differentiation. BL had a closer gene expression pattern to the earliest stage of normal renal development. The BL gene expression pattern was compared to that of fetal kidney (FK) and also between FK and mature kidney, identifying 25 common de-regulated genes supposedly involved in the earliest events of WT onset. Quantitative RT-PCR was performed, confirming the difference in expression levels for 13 of 16 genes (81.2%) in the initial set and 8 of 13 (61.5%) in an independent set of samples. An overrepresentation of genes belonging to the Wnt signaling pathway was identified, namely PLCG2, ROCK2 and adenomatous polyposis coli (APC). Activation of the Wnt pathway was confirmed in WT, using APC at protein level and PLCG2 at mRNA and protein level. APC showed positive nuclear immunostaining for an independent set of WT samples, similarly to the FK in week 11. Lack of PLCG2 expression was confirmed in WT and in FK until week 18. Taken together, these results provided molecular evidence of the recapitulation of the embryonic kidney by WT as well as involvement of the Wnt pathway in the earliest events of WT onset. Copyright (C) 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Prospective randomized trial of EUS versus ERCP-guided common bile duct stone removal: an interim report (with video)

Background: EUS is being increasingly utilized for the diagnosis of choledocholithiasis and microlithiasis, especially in patients with biliary colic. Simultaneously, there is also a rising interest in the use of EUS for therapeutic interventions. Objectives: Our goal was to assess the effectiveness of EUS-directed common bile duct (CBD) stone removal to compare its safety and effectiveness with ERCP-directed intervention. Design: interim results of a prospective, randomized, single-center blinded clinical trial. Setting: A single tertiary care referral center. Patients: Fifty-two patients with uncomplicated CBD stones were prospectively randomized to CBD cannulation and stone removal under EUS or ERCP guidance. Main Outcome Measurements and Interventions: Primary outcome measure was the rate of successful cannulation of the CBD. Secondary Outcome measures included Successful removal of stones and overall complication rates. Results: CBD cannulation followed by stone extraction was successful in 23 of 26 patients (88.5%) in the EUS group (1) versus 25 of 26 patients (96.2%) in the ERCP group (11) (95% CI, -27.65%, 9.88%). Overall, there were 3 complications in the EUS group and 4 complications in the ERCP group. Limitation: The current study is an interim report from a single center report and performed by a single operator. Conclusions: Our preliminary analysis indicates that Outcomes following EUS-guided CBD stone retrieval are equivalent to those following ERCP EUS-related adverse events are similar to those following ERCP. ERCP and EUS-guided stone retrieval appears to be equally effective for therapeutic interventions of the bile duct. Additional studies are required to validate these preliminary results and to determine predictors of success of EUS-guided stone removal. (Gastrointest Endosc 2009;69:238-43.)

Common mental disorders during pregnancy and adverse obstetric outcomes

Methods. A prospective cohort study was conducted with 831 pregnant women from antenatal clinics in primary healthcare in Sao Paulo, Brazil. The clinical interview schedule-revised and demographic questionnaires were administered between the 20th and 30th weeks of gestation. Information on infant weight and gestational age at birth were obtained from hospital records. Univariate analyses were used to examine the association between the main exposure and main outcomes. Statistical associations were examined with chi

Common mental disorders during pregnancy: prevalence and associated factors among low-income women in Sao Paulo, Brazil

To estimate the prevalence of common mental disorders (CMD) and factors associated with these disorders among pregnant women of low socio-economic status (SES) in Sao Paulo. We performed a cross-sectional study with 831 women in their 20th to 30th weeks of pregnancy, who were attending antenatal clinics in primary care in Sao Paulo, Brazil. CMD were assessed with the Clinical Interview Schedule-Revised. Crude and adjusted prevalence ratios and 95% CI were calculated to examine the association between CMD and exposure variables. The prevalence of CMD was 20.2% (95% CI 17.5 to 23.0). Age at current pregnancy and at first delivery, current obstetric complications, not having friends in the community, living in a crowded household, lower occupational status and history of previous psychiatric treatment were all independently associated with increased prevalence of CMD. CMD is highly prevalent among pregnant women of low SES seen in primary care settings in Sao Paulo. A combination of distal and proximal psychosocial factors increase the risk for CMD. Primary health care professionals need to be aware of how common CMD in such settings and properly trained to deal with CMD during pregnancy.

Management of Common Bile Duct Stones in Cirrhotic Patients with Coagulopathy: A Comparison of Supra-Papillary Puncture and Standard Cannulation Technique

Bleeding is not uncommon following endoscopic sphincterotomy. Supra-papillary puncture (SPP) might be safer than standard cannulation (SC) techniques in patients with coagulopathy. The aim of the study was to compare the safety and effectiveness of SPP and SC. This was a prospective case control intervention study. Decompensated cirrhotic patients with coagulopathy and choledocolithiasis underwent SC and SPP methods for biliary access. One hundred five patients (56 [53.3%] men, mean [SD] age 56 [15.8]) underwent ERCP. SC and SPP were performed in 63 and 42 patients, respectively. Biliary access was achieved in 56/63 (89%) and 40/42 (95%) of patients undergoing SC and SPP, respectively (P = 0.13; 95% CI [-0.16; 0.03]). Complications occurred in 10/63 (15.8%) patients undergoing SC and 5/42 (11.9%) SPP (P = 0.28; 95% CI [-0.17, 0.16]). Five (7.9%) and two (3.2%) episodes of post-sphincterotomy bleeding was seen in the SC and SPP groups, respectively (P = 0.36; 95% CI [-0.16, 0.05]). In contrast, three (4.8%) episodes of pancreatitis were seen in the SC and none in the SPP group (P = 0.05; 95% CI [0.001; 0.004]). A cost-effectiveness analysis demonstrated that SPP is an acceptable alternative at an ICER of US$ 5,974.92 per additional successful procedure. SPP is a safe and effective technique for the management of common bile duct stones in decompensated cirrhotic patients. Conditional to the willingness-to-pay and to the local ERCP-related costs, SPP is also a cost-effective alternative to the SC methods. SPP is associated with a lower rate of complications but larger studies to validate these findings are necessary.

The common-866G > A variant in the promoter of UCP2 is associated with decreased risk of coronary artery disease in type 2 diabetic men

OBJECTIVE-Uncoupling protein 2 (UCP2) is a physiological downregulator of reactive oxygen species generation and plays an antiatherogenic role in the vascular wall. A common variant in the UCP2 promoter (-866G>A) modulates mRNA expression, with increased expression associated with the A allele. We investigated association of this variant with coronary artery disease (CAD) in two cohorts of type 2 diabetic subjects. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS-We studied 3,122 subjects from the 6-year prospective Non-Insulin-Dependent Diabetes, Hypertension, Microalbuminuria, Cardiovascular Events, and Ramipril (DIABHYCAR) Study (14.9% of CAD incidence at follow-up). An independent, hospital-based cohort of 335 men, 52% of whom had CAD, was also studied. RESULTS-We observed an inverse association of the A allele with incident cases of CAD in a dominant model (hazard risk 0.88 [95% CI 0.80-0.96]; P = 0.006). Similar results were observed for baseline cases of CAD. Stratification by sex confirmed an allelic association with CAD in men, whereas no association was observed in women. All CAD phenotypes considered-myocardial infarction, angina pectoris, coronary artery bypass graft (CABG), and sudden death-contributed significantly to the association. Results were replicated in a cross-sectional study of an independent cohort (odds ratio 0.47 [95% CI 0.25-0.89]; P = 0.02 for a recessive model). CONCLUSIONS-The A allele of the -866G>A variant of UCP2 was associated with reduced risk of CAD in men with type 2 diabetes in a 6-year prospective study. Decreased risk of myocardial infarction, angina pectoris, CABG, and sudden death contributed individually and significantly to the reduction of CAD risk. This association was independent of other common CAD risk factors.