95 resultados para causal inference


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Neste artigo analisa-se a tendência temporal da prevalência do tabagismo no Brasil, bem como as assimetrias da prevalência de acordo com as regiões do país, a idade, o gênero e o nível socioeconômico da população. Desde o estabelecimento da relação entre tabagismo e câncer de pulmão há 60 anos, o número de tumores malignos com evidências de associação causal com o tabagismo ascendeu a vinte. O declínio da prevalência do tabagismo na população brasileira tem sido constante desde o final da década de 80. Até 2003, foi mais intenso entre os homens. A partir daquele ano, a queda tornou-se mais pronunciada entre as mulheres. As mais altas prevalências de tabagismo encontram-se no Sudeste e Sul, as duas regiões com maiores incidências de neoplasias estritamente relacionadas ao tabaco (cavidade oral, esôfago e pulmão). A exposição ambiental à fumaça do tabaco também foi examinada considerando-se os efeitos para os adultos não fumantes, que apresentam maior risco de tumores de pulmão, laringe e faringe, e entre crianças de pais fumantes, suscetíveis ao risco de hepatoblastoma e leucemia linfocítica aguda. Apesar do incontestável sucesso da política de controle do tabagismo no país, as ações de prevenção devem considerar que as parcelas da população com piores condições socioeconômicas e com baixo nível educacional são as que apresentam taxas mais altas de prevalência de tabagismo. Dentro destes segmentos populacionais os adolescentes representam uma prioridade

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Chronic diseases that are typical of adulthood may originate in intra-uterine life through inadequate fetal development. The present epidemiological cohort study of 506 healthy children aged 5\20138 years evaluated the relationship between birth weight and insulin resistance in an age group that has been assessed in few similar studies. Insulin concentration was determined by chemiluminescence and insulin resistance by the homeostasis model assessment (HOMA). Blood glucose, total cholesterol and fractions (LDL cholesterol and HDL cholesterol) and TAG concentrations were determined by automated enzymatic methods. Linear regression analysis investigated the relationship between birth weight (assessed as a continuous variable and in three categories: small for gestational age, SGA; adequate for gestational age and large for gestational age) and the HOMA index, using backward stepwise selection and biological models to explain the causal pathway of the relationship. There were negativeassociations between birth weight (P < 0·001), SGA (P = 0·027) and the HOMA index, and a positive association between waist circumference (P < 0·001) and the HOMA index. Considering the significant associations between birth weight and waist circumference (P < 0·001) and waist circumference and insulin resistance (P < 0·001), we can probably suspect that lower birth weight is a common cause of higher waist circumference and insulin resistance. In summary, the results of the present study showed increased insulin resistance in apparently healthy, young children, who had lower weight at birth and higher measurements of waist circumference. There is a need to develop public health policies that adopt preventive measures to promote adequate maternal-fetal and child development and enable early diagnosis of metabolic abnormalities

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OBJETIVO: Descrever a prevalência e analisar fatores associados ao retardo estatural em menores de cinco anos. MÉTODOS: Estudo “baseline”, que analisou 2.040 menores de cinco anos, verificando possíveis associações entre o retardo estatural (índice altura/idade ≤ 2 escores Z) e variáveis hierarquizadas em seis blocos: socioeconômicas, do domicílio, do saneamento, maternas, biológicas e de acesso aos serviços de saúde. A análise multivariada foi realizada por regressão de Poisson, com opção de erro padrão robusto, obtendo-se as razões de prevalência ajustadas, com IC 95por cento e respectivos valores de significância. RESULTADOS: Entre as variáveis não dicotômicas, houve associação positiva com tipo de teto e número de moradores por cômodo e associação negativa com renda, escolaridade da mãe e peso ao nascer. A análise ajustada indicou ainda como variáveis significantes: abastecimento de água, visita do agente comunitário de saúde, local do parto, internação por diarréia e internação por pneumonia. CONCLUSÃO: Os fatores identificados como de risco para o retardo estatural configuram a multicausalidade do problema, implicando na necessidade de intervenções multisetoriais e multiníveis para o seu controle

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In this work we have derived a class of geometries which describe black holes and wormholes in Randall-Sundrum-type brane models, focusing mainly on asymptotically anti-de Sitter backgrounds. We show that by continuously deforming the usual four-dimensional vacuum background, a specific family of solutions is obtained. Maximal extensions of the solutions are presented, and their causal structures are discussed.

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Purpose: Potentially Inappropriate Medications (PIM) use in elderly people may be responsible for the development of Adverse Drug Reaction (ADR) which, when severe, leads to hospital admissions. Objectives: to estimate the prevalence of elderly who had used PIM before being admitted to hospital and to identify the risk factors and the hospitalizations related to ADR arising from PIM. Methods: A descriptive and cross-sectional study was performed in the internal medicine ward of a teaching hospital (Brazil), in 2008. With the aid of a validated form, patients aged >= 60 years, with length of hospital stay >= 24 hours, were interviewed about drugs taken prior to the hospital admission and the complaints/reasons for hospitalization. Results: 19.1% (59/308) of older patients had taken PIM before hospital admission and in 4.9%; there were a causal relation between the PIM taken and the complaint reported. PIM responsible for admissions were: amiodarone, amitriptyline, cimetidine, clonidine, diazepam, digoxin, estrogen, fluoxetine, lorazepam, short-acting nifedipine and propranolol. 47.0% of the clinical manifestations of PIM-related ADR were: dizziness, fatigue, digoxin toxicity and erythema. Only polypharmacy was detected as a risk factor for the occurrence of ADR of PIM (p = 0.02). Conclusion: PIM use in elderly people is not a risk factor for ADR-related hospital admission. Probably, severe ADR, which lead to hospitalizations of older people, can be explained by idiosyncratic response or the predisposition of these patients to develop adverse drug events, whether or not drugs are classed as PIM.

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Diagnostic methods have been an important tool in regression analysis to detect anomalies, such as departures from error assumptions and the presence of outliers and influential observations with the fitted models. Assuming censored data, we considered a classical analysis and Bayesian analysis assuming no informative priors for the parameters of the model with a cure fraction. A Bayesian approach was considered by using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods with Metropolis-Hasting algorithms steps to obtain the posterior summaries of interest. Some influence methods, such as the local influence, total local influence of an individual, local influence on predictions and generalized leverage were derived, analyzed and discussed in survival data with a cure fraction and covariates. The relevance of the approach was illustrated with a real data set, where it is shown that, by removing the most influential observations, the decision about which model best fits the data is changed.

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Turmeric (Curcuma longa) is a triploid, vegetatively propagated crop introduced early during the colonization of Brazil. Turmeric rhizomes are ground into a powder used as a natural dye in the food industry, although recent research suggests a greater potential for the development of drugs and cosmetics. In Brazil, little is known about the genetic variability available for crop improvement. We examined the genetic diversity among turmeric accessions from a Brazilian germplasm collection comprising 39 accessions collected from the States of Goias, Mato Grosso do Sul, Minas Gerais, Sao Paulo, and Para. For comparison, 18 additional genotypes were analyzed, including samples from India and Puerto Rico. Total DNA was extracted from lyophilized leaf tissue and genetic analysis was performed using 17 microsatellite markers (single-sequence repeats). Shannon-Weiner indexes ranged from 0.017 (Minas Gerais) to 0.316 (Sao Paulo). Analyses of molecular variance (AMOVA) demonstrated major differences between countries (63.4%) and that most of the genetic diversity in Brazil is found within states (75.3%). Genotypes from Sao Paulo State were the most divergent and potentially useful for crop improvement. Structure analysis indicated two main groups of accessions. These results can help target future collecting efforts for introduction of new materials needed to develop more productive and better adapted cultivars.

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The endophyte Guignardia mangiferae is closely related to G. citricarpa, the causal agent of citrus black spot; for many years these species had been confused with each other. The development of molecular analytical methods has allowed differentiation of the pathogen G. citricarpa from the endophyte G. mangiferae, but the physiological traits associated with pathogenicity were not described. We examined genetic and enzymatic characteristics of Guignardia spp strains; G. citricarpa produces significantly greater amounts of amylases, endoglucanases and pectinases, compared to G. mangiferae, suggesting that these enzymes could be key in the development of citrus black spot. Principal component analysis revealed pectinase production as the main enzymatic characteristic that distinguishes these Guignardia species. We quantified the activities of pectin lyase, pectin methylesterase and endopolygalacturonase; G. citricarpa and G. mangiferae were found to have significantly different pectin lyase and endopolygalacturonase activities. The pathogen G. citricarpa is more effective in pectin degradation. We concluded that there are significant physiological differences between the species G. citricarpa and G. mangiferae that could be associated with differences in pathogenicity for citrus plants.

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Background: The post-genomic era has brought new challenges regarding the understanding of the organization and function of the human genome. Many of these challenges are centered on the meaning of differential gene regulation under distinct biological conditions and can be performed by analyzing the Multiple Differential Expression (MDE) of genes associated with normal and abnormal biological processes. Currently MDE analyses are limited to usual methods of differential expression initially designed for paired analysis. Results: We proposed a web platform named ProbFAST for MDE analysis which uses Bayesian inference to identify key genes that are intuitively prioritized by means of probabilities. A simulated study revealed that our method gives a better performance when compared to other approaches and when applied to public expression data, we demonstrated its flexibility to obtain relevant genes biologically associated with normal and abnormal biological processes. Conclusions: ProbFAST is a free accessible web-based application that enables MDE analysis on a global scale. It offers an efficient methodological approach for MDE analysis of a set of genes that are turned on and off related to functional information during the evolution of a tumor or tissue differentiation. ProbFAST server can be accessed at http://gdm.fmrp.usp.br/probfast.

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Background: Genome wide association studies (GWAS) are becoming the approach of choice to identify genetic determinants of complex phenotypes and common diseases. The astonishing amount of generated data and the use of distinct genotyping platforms with variable genomic coverage are still analytical challenges. Imputation algorithms combine directly genotyped markers information with haplotypic structure for the population of interest for the inference of a badly genotyped or missing marker and are considered a near zero cost approach to allow the comparison and combination of data generated in different studies. Several reports stated that imputed markers have an overall acceptable accuracy but no published report has performed a pair wise comparison of imputed and empiric association statistics of a complete set of GWAS markers. Results: In this report we identified a total of 73 imputed markers that yielded a nominally statistically significant association at P < 10(-5) for type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and compared them with results obtained based on empirical allelic frequencies. Interestingly, despite their overall high correlation, association statistics based on imputed frequencies were discordant in 35 of the 73 (47%) associated markers, considerably inflating the type I error rate of imputed markers. We comprehensively tested several quality thresholds, the haplotypic structure underlying imputed markers and the use of flanking markers as predictors of inaccurate association statistics derived from imputed markers. Conclusions: Our results suggest that association statistics from imputed markers showing specific MAF (Minor Allele Frequencies) range, located in weak linkage disequilibrium blocks or strongly deviating from local patterns of association are prone to have inflated false positive association signals. The present study highlights the potential of imputation procedures and proposes simple procedures for selecting the best imputed markers for follow-up genotyping studies.

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Background: Analyses of population structure and breed diversity have provided insight into the origin and evolution of cattle. Previously, these studies have used a low density of microsatellite markers, however, with the large number of single nucleotide polymorphism markers that are now available, it is possible to perform genome wide population genetic analyses in cattle. In this study, we used a high-density panel of SNP markers to examine population structure and diversity among eight cattle breeds sampled from Bos indicus and Bos taurus. Results: Two thousand six hundred and forty one single nucleotide polymorphisms ( SNPs) spanning all of the bovine autosomal genome were genotyped in Angus, Brahman, Charolais, Dutch Black and White Dairy, Holstein, Japanese Black, Limousin and Nelore cattle. Population structure was examined using the linkage model in the program STRUCTURE and Fst estimates were used to construct a neighbor-joining tree to represent the phylogenetic relationship among these breeds. Conclusion: The whole-genome SNP panel identified several levels of population substructure in the set of examined cattle breeds. The greatest level of genetic differentiation was detected between the Bos taurus and Bos indicus breeds. When the Bos indicus breeds were excluded from the analysis, genetic differences among beef versus dairy and European versus Asian breeds were detected among the Bos taurus breeds. Exploration of the number of SNP loci required to differentiate between breeds showed that for 100 SNP loci, individuals could only be correctly clustered into breeds 50% of the time, thus a large number of SNP markers are required to replace the 30 microsatellite markers that are currently commonly used in genetic diversity studies.

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This study proposes a simplified mathematical model to describe the processes occurring in an anaerobic sequencing batch biofilm reactor (ASBBR) treating lipid-rich wastewater. The reactor, subjected to rising organic loading rates, contained biomass immobilized cubic polyurethane foam matrices, and was operated at 32 degrees C +/- 2 degrees C, using 24-h batch cycles. In the adaptation period, the reactor was fed with synthetic substrate for 46 days and was operated without agitation. Whereas agitation was raised to 500 rpm, the organic loading rate (OLR) rose from 0.3 g chemical oxygen demand (COD) . L(-1) . day(-1) to 1.2 g COD . L(-1) . day(-1). The ASBBR was fed fat-rich wastewater (dairy wastewater), in an operation period lasting for 116 days, during which four operational conditions (OCs) were tested: 1.1 +/- 0.2 g COD . L(-1) . day(-1) (OC1), 4.5 +/- 0.4 g COD . L(-1) . day(-1) (OC2), 8.0 +/- 0.8 g COD . L(-1) . day(-1) (OC3), and 12.1 +/- 2.4 g COD . L(-1) . day(-1) (OC4). The bicarbonate alkalinity (BA)/COD supplementation ratio was 1:1 at OC1, 1:2 at OC2, and 1:3 at OC3 and OC4. Total COD removal efficiencies were higher than 90%, with a constant production of bicarbonate alkalinity, in all OCs tested. After the process reached stability, temporal profiles of substrate consumption were obtained. Based on these experimental data a simplified first-order model was fit, making possible the inference of kinetic parameters. A simplified mathematical model correlating soluble COD with volatile fatty acids (VFA) was also proposed, and through it the consumption rates of intermediate products as propionic and acetic acid were inferred. Results showed that the microbial consortium worked properly and high efficiencies were obtained, even with high initial substrate concentrations, which led to the accumulation of intermediate metabolites and caused low specific consumption rates.

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Creation of cold dark matter (CCDM) can macroscopically be described by a negative pressure, and, therefore, the mechanism is capable to accelerate the Universe, without the need of an additional dark energy component. In this framework, we discuss the evolution of perturbations by considering a Neo-Newtonian approach where, unlike in the standard Newtonian cosmology, the fluid pressure is taken into account even in the homogeneous and isotropic background equations (Lima, Zanchin, and Brandenberger, MNRAS 291, L1, 1997). The evolution of the density contrast is calculated in the linear approximation and compared to the one predicted by the Lambda CDM model. The difference between the CCDM and Lambda CDM predictions at the perturbative level is quantified by using three different statistical methods, namely: a simple chi(2)-analysis in the relevant space parameter, a Bayesian statistical inference, and, finally, a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. We find that under certain circumstances, the CCDM scenario analyzed here predicts an overall dynamics (including Hubble flow and matter fluctuation field) which fully recovers that of the traditional cosmic concordance model. Our basic conclusion is that such a reduction of the dark sector provides a viable alternative description to the accelerating Lambda CDM cosmology.

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Background: Leifsonia xyli is a xylem-inhabiting bacterial species comprised of two subspecies: L. xyli subsp. xyli (Lxx) and L. xyli subsp. cynodontis (Lxc). Lxx is the causal agent of ratoon stunting disease in sugarcane commercial fields and Lxc colonizes the xylem of several grasses causing either mild or no symptoms of disease. The completely sequenced genome of Lxx provided insights into its biology and pathogenicity. Since IS elements are largely reported as an important source of bacterial genome diversification and nothing is known about their role in chromosome architecture of L. xyli, a comparative analysis of Lxc and Lxx elements was performed. Results: Sample sequencing of Lxc genome and comparative analysis with Lxx complete DNA sequence revealed a variable number of IS transposable elements acting upon genomic diversity. A detailed characterization of Lxc IS elements and a comparative review with IS elements of Lxx are presented. Each genome showed a unique set of elements although related to same IS families when considering features such as similarity among transposases, inverted and direct repeats, and element size. Most of the Lxc and Lxx IS families assigned were reported to maintain transposition at low levels using translation regulatory mechanisms, consistent with our in silico analysis. Some of the IS elements were found associated with rearrangements and specific regions of each genome. Differences were also found in the effect of IS elements upon insertion, although none of the elements were preferentially associated with gene disruption. A survey of transposases among genomes of Actinobacteria showed no correlation between phylogenetic relatedness and distribution of IS families. By using Southern hybridization, we suggested that diversification of Lxc isolates is also mediated by insertion sequences in probably recent events. Conclusion: Collectively our data indicate that transposable elements are involved in genome diversification of Lxc and Lxx. The IS elements were probably acquired after the divergence of the two subspecies and are associated with genome organization and gene contents. In addition to enhancing understanding of IS element dynamics in general, these data will contribute to our ongoing comparative analyses aimed at understanding the biological differences of the Lxc and Lxx.

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Background: The thin-spined porcupine, also known as the bristle-spined rat, Chaetomys subspinosus (Olfers, 1818), the only member of its genus, figures among Brazilian endangered species. In addition to being threatened, it is poorly known, and even its taxonomic status at the family level has long been controversial. The genus Chaetomys was originally regarded as a porcupine in the family Erethizontidae, but some authors classified it as a spiny-rat in the family Echimyidae. Although the dispute seems to be settled in favor of the erethizontid advocates, further discussion of its affinities should be based on a phylogenetic framework. In the present study, we used nucleotide-sequence data from the complete mitochondrial cytochrome b gene and karyotypic information to address this issue. Our molecular analyses included one individual of Chaetomys subspinosus from the state of Bahia in northeastern Brazil, and other hystricognaths. Results: All topologies recovered in our molecular phylogenetic analyses strongly supported Chaetomys subspinosus as a sister clade of the erethizontids. Cytogenetically, Chaetomys subspinosus showed 2n = 52 and FN = 76. Although the sexual pair could not be identified, we assumed that the X chromosome is biarmed. The karyotype included 13 large to medium metacentric and submetacentric chromosome pairs, one small subtelocentric pair, and 12 small acrocentric pairs. The subtelocentric pair 14 had a terminal secondary constriction in the short arm, corresponding to the nucleolar organizer region (Ag-NOR), similar to the erethizontid Sphiggurus villosus, 2n = 42 and FN = 76, and different from the echimyids, in which the secondary constriction is interstitial. Conclusion: Both molecular phylogenies and karyotypical evidence indicated that Chaetomys is closely related to the Erethizontidae rather than to the Echimyidae, although in a basal position relative to the rest of the Erethizontidae. The high levels of molecular and morphological divergence suggest that Chaetomys belongs to an early radiation of the Erethizontidae that may have occurred in the Early Miocene, and should be assigned to its own subfamily, the Chaetomyinae.