Vulnerability to heat-related mortality in Latin America: A case-crossover study in Sao Paulo, Brazil, Santiago, Chile and Mexico City, Mexico

Background Factors affecting vulnerability to heat-related mortality are not well understood. Identifying susceptible populations is of particular importance given anticipated rising temperatures from climatic change. Methods We investigated heat-related mortality for three Latin American cities (Mexico City, Mexico; Sao Paulo, Brazil; Santiago, Chile) using a case-crossover approach for 754 291 deaths from 1998 to 2002. We considered lagged exposures, confounding by air pollution, cause of death and susceptibilities by educational attainment, age and sex. Results Same and previous day apparent temperature were most strongly associated with mortality risk. Effect estimates remained positive though lowered after adjustment for ozone or PM(10). Susceptibility increased with age in all cities. The increase in mortality risk for those >= 65 comparing the 95th and 75th percentiles of same-day apparent temperature was 2.69% (95% CI: -2.06 to 7.88%) for Santiago, 6.51% (95% CI: 3.57-9.52%) for Sao Paulo and 3.22% (95% CI: 0.93-5.57%) for Mexico City. Patterns of vulnerability by education and sex differed across communities. Effect estimates were higher for women than men in Mexico City, and higher for men elsewhere, although results by sex were not appreciably different for any city. In Sao Paulo, those with less education were more susceptible, whereas no distinct patterns by education were observed in the other cities. Conclusions Elevated temperatures are associated with mortality risk in these Latin American cities, with the strongest associations in So Paulo, the hottest city. The elderly are an important population for targeted prevention measures, but vulnerability by sex and education differed by city.

Low human papillomavirus prevalence in head and neck cancer: results from two large case-control studies in high-incidence regions

Background Recent studies support an important role for human papillomavirus (HPV) in a subgroup of head and neck squamous cell carcinomas (HNSCC). We have evaluated the HPV deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) prevalence as well as the association between serological response to HPV infection and HNSCC in two distinct populations from Central Europe (CE) and Latin America (LA). Methods Cases (n = 2214) and controls (n = 3319) were recruited from 1998 to 2003, using a similar protocol including questionnaire and blood sample collection. Tumour DNA from 196 fresh tissue biopsies was analysed for multiple HPV types followed by an HPV type-specific polymerase chain reaction (PCR) protocol towards the E7 gene from HPV 16. Using multiplex serology, serum samples were analysed for antibodies to 17 HPV types. Statistical analysis included the estimation of adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and the respective 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results HPV16 E7 DNA prevalence among cases was 3.1% (6/196), including 4.4% in the oropharynx (3/68), 3.8% in the hypopharynx/larynx (3/78) and 0% among 50 cases of oral cavity carcinomas. Positivity for both HPV16 E6 and E7 antibodies was associated with a very high risk of oropharyngeal cancer (OR = 179, 95% CI 35.8-899) and hypopharyngeal/laryngeal cancer (OR = 14.9, 95% CI 2.92-76.1). Conclusions A very low prevalence of HPV DNA and serum antibodies was observed among cases in both CE and LA. The proportion of head and neck cancer caused by HPV may vary substantially between different geographical regions and studies that are designed to evaluate the impact of HPV vaccination on HNSCC need to consider this heterogeneity.

A novel human CD4(+) T-cell inducer subset with potent immunostimulatory properties

The complexity of immunoregulation has focused attention on the CD4(+) T ""suppressor"" regulatory cell (T(reg)), which helps maintain balance between immunity and tolerance. An immunoregulatory T-cell population that upon activation amplifies cellular immune responses was described in murine models more than 30 years ago; however, no study has yet identified a naturally occurring T ""inducer"" cell type. Here, we report that the ectoenzyme CD39/NTPDase1 (ecto-nucleoside triphosphate diphosphohydrolase 1) helps to delineate a novel population of human ""inducer"" CD4(+) T cells (T(ind)) that significantly increases the proliferation and cytokine production of responder T cells in a dose-dependent manner. Furthermore, this unique T(ind) subset produces a distinct repertoire of cytokines in comparison to the other CD4(+) T-cell subsets. We propose that this novel CD4(+) T-cell population counterbalances the suppressive activity of suppressor T(reg) in peripheral blood and serves as a calibrator of immunoregulation.

Risk factors across the life course and dementia in a Brazilian population: results from the Sao Paulo Ageing & Health Study (SPAH)

Background Several mechanisms have been suggested to explain the association between adversities across life and dementia. This study aimed to investigate the association between indicators of socioeconomic disadvantages throughout the life-course and dementia among older adults in Sao Paulo, Brazil and to explore possible causal pathways. Methods We used baseline data from the SPAH study which involved participants aged 65 years and older (n = 2005). The outcome of interest was prevalent dementia. Exposures included in the analyses were socioeconomic position (SEP) indicators in childhood (place of birth and literacy) and adulthood (occupation and income), anthropometric measurements as markers of intrauterine and childhood environment (head circumference and leg length), smoking, diabetes and hypertension. Logistic regression models were used to test the hypothesized pathways and to assess whether there was an association between cumulative adversities across the life course and prevalent dementia. Results Indicators of socioeconomic disadvantage in early life were associated with increased prevalence of dementia. This association was partially mediated through adulthood SEP. Head circumference and leg length were also clearly associated with dementia but there was no evidence that this association was mediated by early life socioeconomic disadvantage. There was an association between cumulative unfavourable conditions across the life course and dementia. Conclusions Early life disadvantages seem to operate through biological mechanisms associated with passive brain reserve and opportunities in life representing active cognitive reserve. Prevention of dementia should start early in life and continue through life span as seen with many other chronic diseases.

Leverage analysis for linear mixed models

We consider a generalized leverage matrix useful for the identification of influential units and observations in linear mixed models and show how a decomposition of this matrix may be employed to identify high leverage points for both the marginal fitted values and the random effect component of the conditional fitted values. We illustrate the different uses of the two components of the decomposition with a simulated example as well as with a real data set.