Tree-ring formation, radial increment periodicity, and phenology of tree species from a seasonal semi-deciduous forest in southeast Brazil

Many tropical tree species produce growth rings in response to seasonal environmental factors that influence the activity of the vascular cambium. We applied the following methods to analyze the annual nature of treering formation of 24 tree species from a seasonal semi-deciduous forest of southeast Brazil: describing wood anatomy and phenology, counting tree rings after cambium markings, and using permanent dendrometer bands. After 7 years of systematic observations and measurements, we found the following: the trees lost their leaves during the dry season and grew new leaves at the end of the same season; trunk increment dynamics corresponded to seasonal changes in precipitation, with higher increment (active period) during the rainy season (October-April) and lower increment (dormant period) during the dry season (May-September); the number of tree rings formed after injuries to the cambium coincided with the number of years since the extraction of the wood samples. As a result of these observations, it was concluded that most study trees formed one growth ring per year. This suggests that tree species from the seasonal semi-deciduous forests of Brazil have an annual cycle of wood formation. Therefore, these trees have potential for use in future studies of tree age and radial growth rates, as well as to infer ecological and regional climatic conditions. These future studies can provide important information for the management and conservation of these endangered forests.

Optimal reserve management and sovereign debt

Most models currently used to determine optimal foreign reserve holdings take the level of international debt as given. However, given the sovereign`s willingness-to-pay incentive problems, reserve accumulation may reduce sustainable debt levels. In addition, assuming constant debt levels does not allow addressing one of the puzzles behind using reserves as a means to avoid the negative effects of crisis: why do not sovereign countries reduce their sovereign debt instead? To study the joint decision of holding sovereign debt and reserves, we construct a stochastic dynamic equilibrium model calibrated to a sample of emerging markets. We obtain that the reserve accumulation does not play a quantitatively important role in this model. In fact, we find the optimal policy is not to hold reserves at all. This finding is robust to considering interest rate shocks, sudden stops, contingent reserves and reserve dependent output costs. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A decision support system to facilitate management of patients with acute gastrointestinal bleeding

Objective: To develop a model to predict the bleeding source and identify the cohort amongst patients with acute gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) who require urgent intervention, including endoscopy. Patients with acute GIB, an unpredictable event, are most commonly evaluated and managed by non-gastroenterologists. Rapid and consistently reliable risk stratification of patients with acute GIB for urgent endoscopy may potentially improve outcomes amongst such patients by targeting scarce health-care resources to those who need it the most. Design and methods: Using ICD-9 codes for acute GIB, 189 patients with acute GIB and all. available data variables required to develop and test models were identified from a hospital medical records database. Data on 122 patients was utilized for development of the model and on 67 patients utilized to perform comparative analysis of the models. Clinical data such as presenting signs and symptoms, demographic data, presence of co-morbidities, laboratory data and corresponding endoscopic diagnosis and outcomes were collected. Clinical data and endoscopic diagnosis collected for each patient was utilized to retrospectively ascertain optimal management for each patient. Clinical presentations and corresponding treatment was utilized as training examples. Eight mathematical models including artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine (SVM), k-nearest neighbor, linear discriminant analysis (LDA), shrunken centroid (SC), random forest (RF), logistic regression, and boosting were trained and tested. The performance of these models was compared using standard statistical analysis and ROC curves. Results: Overall the random forest model best predicted the source, need for resuscitation, and disposition with accuracies of approximately 80% or higher (accuracy for endoscopy was greater than 75%). The area under ROC curve for RF was greater than 0.85, indicating excellent performance by the random forest model Conclusion: While most mathematical models are effective as a decision support system for evaluation and management of patients with acute GIB, in our testing, the RF model consistently demonstrated the best performance. Amongst patients presenting with acute GIB, mathematical models may facilitate the identification of the source of GIB, need for intervention and allow optimization of care and healthcare resource allocation; these however require further validation. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.