The Effect of Spatial Scale on Predicting Time Series: A Study on Epidemiological System Identification

A susceptible-infective-recovered (SIR) epidemiological model based on probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA) is employed for simulating the temporal evolution of the registered cases of chickenpox in Arizona, USA, between 1994 and 2004. At each time step, every individual is in one of the states S, I, or R. The parameters of this model are the probabilities of each individual (each cell forming the PCA lattice ) passing from a state to another state. Here, the values of these probabilities are identified by using a genetic algorithm. If nonrealistic values are allowed to the parameters, the predictions present better agreement with the historical series than if they are forced to present realistic values. A discussion about how the size of the PCA lattice affects the quality of the model predictions is presented. Copyright (C) 2009 L. H. A. Monteiro et al.

System Identification and Prediction of Dengue Fever Incidence in Rio de Janeiro

Identification, prediction, and control of a system are engineering subjects, regardless of the nature of the system. Here, the temporal evolution of the number of individuals with dengue fever weekly recorded in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, during 2007, is used to identify SIS (susceptible-infective-susceptible) and SIR (susceptible-infective-removed) models formulated in terms of cellular automaton (CA). In the identification process, a genetic algorithm (GA) is utilized to find the probabilities of the state transition S -> I able of reproducing in the CA lattice the historical series of 2007. These probabilities depend on the number of infective neighbors. Time-varying and non-time-varying probabilities, three different sizes of lattices, and two kinds of coupling topology among the cells are taken into consideration. Then, these epidemiological models built by combining CA and GA are employed for predicting the cases of sick persons in 2008. Such models can be useful for forecasting and controlling the spreading of this infectious disease.

A Novel Organotellurium Compound (RT-01) as a New Antileishmanial Agent

Leishmaniasis is a neglected disease and endemic in developing countries. A lack of adequate and definitive chemotherapeutic agents to fight against this infection has led to the investigation of numerous compounds. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of RT-01, an organotellurane compound presenting biological activities, in 2 experimental systems against Leishmania amazonensis. The in vitro system consisted of promastigotes and amastigotes forms of the parasite, and the in vivo system consisted of L. amazonensis infected BALB/c mice, an extremely susceptible mouse strain. The compound proved to be toxic against promastigotes and amastigotes. The study also showed that treatment with RT-01 produces an effect similar to that treatment with the reference antimonial drug, Glucantime, in L. amazonensis infected mice. The best results were obtained following RT-01 intralesional administration (720 mu g/kg/day); mice showed significant delay in the development of cutaneous lesions and decreased numbers of parasites obtained from the lesions. Significant differences in tissue pathology consisted mainly of no expressive accumulation of inflammatory cells and well-preserved structures in the skin tissue of RT-01-treated mice compared with expressive infiltration of infected cells replacing the skin tissue in lesions of untreated mice. These findings highlight the fact that the apparent potency of organotellurane compounds, together with their relatively simple structure, may represent a new avenue for the development of novel drugs to combat parasitic diseases.

Lack of Galectin-3 Disturbs Mesenteric Lymph Node Homeostasis and B Cell Niches in the Course of Schistosoma mansoni Infection

Galectin-3 is a beta-galactoside-binding protein that has been shown to regulate pathophysiological processes, including cellular activation, differentiation and apoptosis. Recently, we showed that galectin-3 acts as a potent inhibitor of B cell differentiation into plasma cells. Here, we have investigated whether galectin-3 interferes with the lymphoid organization of B cell compartments in mesenteric lymph nodes (MLNs) during chronic schistosomiasis, using WT and galectin-3(-/-) mice. Schistosoma mansoni synthesizes GalNAc beta 1-4(Fuc alpha 1-3) GlcNAc(Lac-DiNAc) structures (N-acetylgalactosamine beta 1-4 N-acetylglucosamine), which are known to interact with galectin-3 and elicit an intense humoral response. Antigens derived from the eggs and adult worms are continuously drained to MLNs and induce a polyclonal B cell activation. In the present work, we observed that chronically-infected galectin-3(-/-) mice exhibited a significant reduced amount of macrophages and B lymphocytes followed by drastic histological changes in B lymphocyte and plasma cell niches in the MLNs. The lack of galectin-3 favored an increase in the lymphoid follicle number, but made follicular cells more susceptible to apoptotic stimuli. There were an excessive quantity of apoptotic bodies, higher number of annexin V(+)/PI(-) cells, and reduced clearance of follicular apoptotic cells in the course of schistosomiasis. Here, we observed that galectin-3 was expressed in nonlymphoid follicular cells and its absence was associated with severe damage to tissue architecture. Thus, we convey new information on the role of galectin-3 in regulation of histological events associated with B lymphocyte and plasma cell niches, apoptosis, phagocytosis and cell cycle properties in the MLNs of mice challenged with S. mansoni.

Activation of endogenous p53 by combined p19Arf gene transfer and nutlin-3 drug treatment modalities in the murine cell lines B16 and C6

Background: Reactivation of p53 by either gene transfer or pharmacologic approaches may compensate for loss of p19Arf or excess mdm2 expression, common events in melanoma and glioma. In our previous work, we constructed the pCLPG retroviral vector where transgene expression is controlled by p53 through a p53-responsive promoter. The use of this vector to introduce p19Arf into tumor cells that harbor p53wt should yield viral expression of p19Arf which, in turn, would activate the endogenous p53 and result in enhanced vector expression and tumor suppression. Since nutlin-3 can activate p53 by blocking its interaction with mdm2, we explored the possibility that the combination of p19Arf gene transfer and nutlin-3 drug treatment may provide an additive benefit in stimulating p53 function. Methods: B16 (mouse melanoma) and C6 (rat glioma) cell lines, which harbor p53wt, were transduced with pCLPGp19 and these were additionally treated with nutlin-3 or the DNA damaging agent, doxorubicin. Viral expression was confirmed by Western, Northern and immunofluorescence assays. p53 function was assessed by reporter gene activity provided by a p53-responsive construct. Alterations in proliferation and viability were measured by colony formation, growth curve, cell cycle and MTT assays. In an animal model, B16 cells were treated with the pCLPGp19 virus and/or drugs before subcutaneous injection in C57BL/6 mice, observation of tumor progression and histopathologic analyses. Results: Here we show that the functional activation of endogenous p53wt in B16 was particularly challenging, but accomplished when combined gene transfer and drug treatments were applied, resulting in increased transactivation by p53, marked cell cycle alteration and reduced viability in culture. In an animal model, B16 cells treated with both p19Arf and nutlin-3 yielded increased necrosis and decreased BrdU marking. In comparison, C6 cells were quite susceptible to either treatment, yet p53 was further activated by the combination of p19Arf and nutlin-3. Conclusions: To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to apply both p19Arf and nutlin-3 for the stimulation of p53 activity. These results support the notion that a p53 responsive vector may prove to be an interesting gene transfer tool, especially when combined with p53- activating agents, for the treatment of tumors that retain wild-type p53.

Searching for Moniliophthora perniciosa pathogenicity genes

The basidiomycete Moniliophthora perniciosa is the causal agent of witches` broom disease of Theobroma cacao (cacao). Pathogenesis mechanisms of this hemibiotrophic fungus are largely unknown. An approach to identify putative pathogenicity genes is searching for sequences induced in mycelia grown under in vitro conditions. Using this approach, genes from M. perniciosa induced under limiting nitrogen and light were identified from a cDNA library enriched by suppression subtractive hybridization as potential putative pathogenicity genes. From the 159 identified unique sequences, 59 were annotated and classified by gene ontology. Two sequences were categorized as ""Defence genes, Virulence, and Cell response"" presumably coding for allergenic proteins, whose homologues from other fungi are inducers of animal or plant defences. Differential gene expression was evaluated by quantitative amplification of reversed transcripts (RT-qPCR) of the putative identified genes coding for the two allergenic proteins (Aspf13 and 88KD), and for the enzymes Arylsulfatase (AS); Aryl-Alcohol Oxidase; Aldo-Keto Reductase (AK); Cytochrome P450 (P450); Phenylalanine Ammonia-Lyase; and Peroxidase from mycelia grown under contrasting N concentrations. All genes were validated for differential expression, except for the putative Peroxidase. The same eight genes were analysed for expression in susceptible plants inoculated with M. perniciosa, and six were induced during the early asymptomatic stage of the disease. In infected host tissues, transcripts of 88KD and AS were found more abundant at the biotrophic phase, while those from Aspf13, AK, PAL, and P450 accumulated at the necrotrophic phase, enabling to suggest that mycelia transition from biotrophic to necrotrophic might occur earlier than currently considered. These sequences appeared to be virulence life-style genes, which encode factors or enzymes that enable invasion, colonization or intracellular survival, or manipulate host factors to benefit the pathogen`s own survival in the hostile environment. (C) 2010 The British Mycological Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Registration of temporal sequences of coronal and sagittal MR images through respiratory patterns

This work discusses the determination of the breathing patterns in time sequence of images obtained from magnetic resonance (MR) and their use in the temporal registration of coronal and sagittal images. The registration is made without the use of any triggering information and any special gas to enhance the contrast. The temporal sequences of images are acquired in free breathing. The real movement of the lung has never been seen directly, as it is totally dependent on its surrounding muscles and collapses without them. The visualization of the lung in motion is an actual topic of research in medicine. The lung movement is not periodic and it is susceptible to variations in the degree of respiration. Compared to computerized tomography (CT), MR imaging involves longer acquisition times and it is preferable because it does not involve radiation. As coronal and sagittal sequences of images are orthogonal to each other, their intersection corresponds to a segment in the three-dimensional space. The registration is based on the analysis of this intersection segment. A time sequence of this intersection segment can be stacked, defining a two-dimension spatio-temporal (2DST) image. The algorithm proposed in this work can detect asynchronous movements of the internal lung structures and lung surrounding organs. It is assumed that the diaphragmatic movement is the principal movement and all the lung structures move almost synchronously. The synchronization is performed through a pattern named respiratory function. This pattern is obtained by processing a 2DST image. An interval Hough transform algorithm searches for synchronized movements with the respiratory function. A greedy active contour algorithm adjusts small discrepancies originated by asynchronous movements in the respiratory patterns. The output is a set of respiratory patterns. Finally, the composition of coronal and sagittal image pairs that are in the same breathing phase is realized by comparing of respiratory patterns originated from diaphragmatic and upper boundary surfaces. When available, the respiratory patterns associated to lung internal structures are also used. The results of the proposed method are compared with the pixel-by-pixel comparison method. The proposed method increases the number of registered pairs representing composed images and allows an easy check of the breathing phase. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A vaccination game based on public health actions and personal decisions

Susceptible-infective-removed (SIR) models are commonly used for representing the spread of contagious diseases. A SIR model can be described in terms of a probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA), where each individual (corresponding to a cell of the PCA lattice) is connected to others by a random network favoring local contacts. Here, this framework is employed for investigating the consequences of applying vaccine against the propagation of a contagious infection, by considering vaccination as a game, in the sense of game theory. In this game, the players are the government and the susceptible newborns. In order to maximize their own payoffs, the government attempts to reduce the costs for combating the epidemic, and the newborns may be vaccinated only when infective individuals are found in their neighborhoods and/or the government promotes an immunization program. As a consequence of these strategies supported by cost-benefit analysis and perceived risk, numerical simulations show that the disease is not fully eliminated and the government implements quasi-periodic vaccination campaigns. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Who should wear mask against airborne infections? Altering the contact network for controlling the spread of contagious diseases

There are several ways of controlling the propagation of a contagious disease. For instance, to reduce the spreading of an airborne infection, individuals can be encouraged to remain in their homes and/or to wear face masks outside their domiciles. However, when a limited amount of masks is available, who should use them: the susceptible subjects, the infective persons or both populations? Here we employ susceptible-infective-recovered (SIR) models described in terms of ordinary differential equations and probabilistic cellular automata in order to investigate how the deletion of links in the random complex network representing the social contacts among individuals affects the dynamics of a contagious disease. The inspiration for this study comes from recent discussions about the impact of measures usually recommended by health public organizations for preventing the propagation of the swine influenza A (H1N1) virus. Our answer to this question can be valid for other eco-epidemiological systems. (C) 2010 Elsevier BM. All rights reserved.

On the basic reproduction number and the topological properties of the contact network: An epidemiological study in mainly locally connected cellular automata

We study the spreading of contagious diseases in a population of constant size using susceptible-infective-recovered (SIR) models described in terms of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) and probabilistic cellular automata (PCA). In the PCA model, each individual (represented by a cell in the lattice) is mainly locally connected to others. We investigate how the topological properties of the random network representing contacts among individuals influence the transient behavior and the permanent regime of the epidemiological system described by ODE and PCA. Our main conclusions are: (1) the basic reproduction number (commonly called R(0)) related to a disease propagation in a population cannot be uniquely determined from some features of transient behavior of the infective group; (2) R(0) cannot be associated to a unique combination of clustering coefficient and average shortest path length characterizing the contact network. We discuss how these results can embarrass the specification of control strategies for combating disease propagations. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dynamic models for computer viruses

Computer viruses are an important risk to computational systems endangering either corporations of all sizes or personal computers used for domestic applications. Here, classical epidemiological models for disease propagation are adapted to computer networks and, by using simple systems identification techniques a model called SAIC (Susceptible, Antidotal, Infectious, Contaminated) is developed. Real data about computer viruses are used to validate the model. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Characterization and Experimental Host Range of a Brazilian Tomato Isolate of Tomato severe rugose virus

We report the complete molecular characterization of the DNA-A and DNA-B of a Brazilian tomato isolate of Tomato severe rugose virus (ToSRV) and the experimental host range of the virus determined using white-fly transmission tests. Genome analysis showed that ToSRV has a close evolutionary relationship with Tomato rugose mosaic virus. Of 33 plants species inoculated with viruliferous Bemisia tabaci biotype B, 13 species were susceptible to ToSRV, nine asymptomatically. Therefore, ToSRV disease management strategy should include the control of infected weeds close to tomato fields.

On the Cytoadhesion of Plasmodium vivax-Infected Erythrocytes

Background. Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax are responsible for most of the global burden of malaria. Although the accentuated pathogenicity of P. falciparum occurs because of sequestration of the mature erythrocytic forms in the microvasculature, this phenomenon has not yet been noted in P. vivax. The increasing number of severe manifestations of P. vivax infections, similar to those observed for severe falciparum malaria, suggests that key pathogenic mechanisms (eg, cytoadherence) might be shared by the 2 parasites. Methods. Mature P. vivax-infected erythrocytes (Pv-iEs) were isolated from blood samples collected from 34 infected patients. Pv-iEs enriched on Percoll gradients were used in cytoadhesion assays with human lung endothelial cells, Saimiri brain endothelial cells, and placental cryosections. Results. Pv-iEs were able to cytoadhere under static and flow conditions to cells expressing endothelial receptors known to mediate the cytoadhesion of P. falciparum. Although Pv-iE cytoadhesion levels were 10-fold lower than those observed for P. falciparum-infected erythrocytes, the strength of the interaction was similar. Cytoadhesion of Pv-iEs was in part mediated by VIR proteins, encoded by P. vivax variant genes (vir), given that specific antisera inhibited the Pv-iE-endothelial cell interaction. Conclusions. These observations prompt a modification of the current paradigms of the pathogenesis of malaria and clear the way to investigate the pathophysiology of P. vivax infections.

Dexamethasone Effects in the Strongyloides venezuelensis Infection in A Murine Model

The aim of this study was to investigate the immunomodulatory effects of glucocorticoids on the immune response to Strongyloides venezuelensis in mice. Balb/c mice were infected with S. venezuelensis and treated with Dexamethasone (Dexa) or vehicle. Dexa treatment increased circulating blood neutrophil numbers and inhibited eosinophil and mononuclear cell accumulation in the blood, bronchoalveolar, and peritoneal fluid compared with control animals. Moreover, Dexa decreased tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha), interferon-gamma (IFN-gamma), interleukin-3 (IL-3), IL-4, IL-5, IL-10, and IL-12 production in the lungs and circulating immunoglobulin G1. (IgG1), IgG2a, and IgE antibody levels while increasing the overall parasite burden in the feces and intestine. Dexa treatment enhanced the fertility of female nematodes relative to untreated and infected mice. In summary, the alterations in the immune response induced by Dexa resulted in a blunted, aberrant immune response associated with increased parasite burden. This phenomenon is similar to that observed in S. stercoralis-infected humans who are taking immunosuppressive or antiinflammatory drugs, including corticosteroids.

NFAT1 transcription factor is central in the regulation of tissue microenvironment for tumor metastasis

Members of the nuclear factor of activated T cell (NFAT) family of transcription factors were originally described in T lymphocytes but later shown to be expressed in several immune and non-immune cell types. NFAT proteins can modulate cellular transformation intrinsically, and NFAT-deficient (NFAT1-/-) mice are indeed more susceptible to transformation than wild-type counterparts. However, the contribution of an NFAT1-/- microenvironment to tumor progression has not been studied. We have addressed this question by inoculating NFAT1-/- mice with B16F10 melanoma cells intravenously, an established model of tumor homing and growth. Surprisingly, NFAT1-/- animals sustained less tumor growth in the lungs after melanoma inoculation than wild-type counterparts. Even though melanoma cells equally colonize NFAT1-/- and wild-type lungs, tumors do not progress in the absence of NFAT1 expression. A massive mononuclear perivascular infiltrate and reduced expression of TGF-beta in the absence of NFAT1 suggested a role for tumor-infiltrating immune cells and the cytokine milieu. However, these processes are independent of an IL-4-induced regulatory tumor microenvironment, since lack of this cytokine does not alter the phenotype in NFAT1-/- animals. Bone marrow chimera experiments meant to differentiate the contributions of stromal and infiltrating cells to tumor progression demonstrated that NFAT1-induced susceptibility to pulmonary tumor growth depends on NFAT1-expressing parenchyma rather than on bone marrow-derived cells. These results suggest an important role for NFAT1 in radio-resistant tumor-associated parenchyma, which is independent of the anti-tumor immune response and Th1 versus Th2 cytokine milieu established by the cancer cells, but able to promote site-specific tumor growth.