104 resultados para Risk controlling strategies
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PURPOSE: To analyze the usefulness of the weight gain/height gain ratio from birth to two and three years of age as a predictive risk indicator of excess weight at preschool age. METHODS: The weight and height/length of 409 preschool children at daycare centers were measured according to internationally recommended rules. The weight values and body mass indices of the children were transformed into a z-score per the standard method described by the World Health Organization. The Pearson correlation coefficients (rP) and the linear regressions between the anthropometric parameters and the body mass index z-scores of preschool children were statistically analyzed (alpha = 0.05). RESULTS: The mean age of the study population was 3.2 years (± 0.3 years). The prevalence of excess weight was 28.8%, and the prevalence of overweight and obesity was 8.8%. The correlation coefficients between the body mass index z-scores of the preschool children and the birth weights or body mass indices at birth were low (0.09 and 0.10, respectively). There was a high correlation coefficient (rP = 0.79) between the mean monthly gain of weight and the body mass index z-score of preschool children. A higher coefficient (rP = 0.93) was observed between the ratio of the mean weight gain per height gain (g/cm) and the preschool children body mass index z-score. The coefficients and their differences were statistically significant. CONCLUSION: Regardless of weight or length at birth, the mean ratio between the weight gain per g/cm of height growth from birth presented a strong correlation with the body mass index of preschool children. These results suggest that this ratio may be a good indicator of the risk of excess weight and obesity in preschool-aged children.
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Realizou-se um estudo para caracterizar a situação epidemiológica da brucelose bovina no Estado de Minas Gerais. O Estado foi estratificado em sete circuitos produtores. Em cada circuito foram amostradas aleatoriamente cerca de 300 propriedades e, dentro dessas, foi escolhido, de forma aleatória, um número pré-estabelecido de animais, dos quais foi obtida uma amostra de sangue. No total, foram amostrados 20.643 animais, provenientes de 2.204 propriedades. Em cada propriedade visitada aplicou-se um questionário epidemiológico para verificar o tipo de exploração e as práticas zootécnicas e sanitárias que poderiam estar associadas ao risco de infecção pela doença. O protocolo de testes utilizado foi o da triagem com o teste do antígeno acidificado tamponado e a confirmação dos positivos com o teste do 2-mercaptoetanol. O rebanho foi considerado positivo, se pelo menos um animal foi reagente às duas provas sorológicas. As prevalências de focos e de animais infectados do Estado foram de 6,0% [5,0-7,1%] e 1,1% [0,78-1,4%], respectivamente. Os resultados para os circuitos pecuários da prevalência de focos e de animais foram: circuito 1, 4,7% [2,7-7,7%] e 0,82% [0,06-1,6%]; circuito 2, 7,2% [4,6-10,6%] e 1,2% [0,53-1,8%]; circuito 3, 6,8% [4,3-10,0%] e 1,5% [0,47-2,4%]; circuito 4, 6,5% [4,1-9,8%] e 1,1% [0,39-1,7%]; circuito 5, 3,8% [2,0-6,5%] e 0,40% [0,11-0,69%]; circuito 6, 6,2% [3,8-9,6%] e 0,66% [0,29-1,0%]; circuito 7, 11,0% [7,7-15,0%] e 1,7% [0,92-2,6%], respectivamente. Os fatores de risco (odds ratio, OR) associados à condição de foco foram: compra de reprodutores (OR = 1,66 [1,13-2,44]), ocorrência de aborto nos últimos 12 meses (OR = 1,81 [1,26-2,60]) e presença de cervídeos na propriedade (OR = 1,56 [1,08-2,27]). A vacinação contra brucelose foi identificada como fator protetor (OR = 0,38 [0,19-0,79]). Concluiu-se que o programa obrigatório de vacinação de bezerras, iniciado na década de 1990, está sendo eficaz ao reduzir a prevalência em todo o Estado e em todos os sistemas de produção animal. As autoridades sanitárias devem priorizar o controle da compra de animais para reprodução, que não apresentem garantias sanitárias e incorporar essa medida às ações de educativas.
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Realizou-se um estudo para caracterizar a situação epidemiológica da brucelose bovina no Distrito Federal (DF). No total foram amostrados 2.019 animais, provenientes de 278 propriedades. Em cada propriedade visitada aplicou-se um questionário epidemiológico para verificar o tipo de exploração e as práticas de criação e sanitárias que poderiam estar associadas ao risco de infecção pela doença. O protocolo utilizado foi o da triagem com o teste do antígeno acidificado tamponado e a confirmação dos positivos com o teste do 2-mercaptoetanol. O rebanho foi considerado positivo quando pelo menos um animal foi reagente às duas provas sorológicas. A prevalência no DF foi de 2,5% [1,0-5,1%] para propriedades e de 0,16% [0,04-0,28%] para animais. Em razão dos resultados encontrados, que permitem pensar em estratégias de erradicação, recomenda-se que o DF intensifique o diagnóstico de brucelose, tanto na forma de testes sorológicos sistemáticos como pela introdução de mecanismos de detecção rápida em laticínios, em ambos os casos a fim de aumentar o número de propriedades certificadas como livres da doença e melhorar a sensibilidade do sistema de vigilância ativa.
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OBJETIVO: apresentar o perfil de casos notificados de violência física contra menores de 15 anos em Londrina, Paraná, no ano de 2006. MÉTODO: Estudo transversal, com coleta retrospectiva nos prontuários dos Conselhos Tutelares e serviços de atendimento do município. Os dados foram processados e tabulados pelo programa Epi Info. RESULTADOS: Foram estudados 479 casos de violência por força corporal e 9 casos de violência por outros meios (7 por instrumentos, 1 por objeto cortante e 1 por substância corrosiva). Na violência por força corporal, predominaram vítimas do sexo feminino (53,4 por cento ) e maior risco na idade de seis anos (12,2 por 1.000). O pai foi o agressor mais frequente (48,8 por cento ) e o alcoolismo esteve presente em 64,0 por cento dos casos. A violência por instrumentos foi praticada através de cinta (42,9 por cento ), fio (28,6 por cento ), ferro (14,3 por cento ) e instrumento de cozinha (14,3 por cento ), com vítimas do sexo feminino (85,7 por cento ), na faixa etária de doze anos (33,3 por cento ), sendo o pai (71,4 por cento ) e a mãe (28,6 por cento ) os únicos agressores, com o alcoolismo presente em 57,1 por cento destas situações. A vítima de violência por objeto cortante era do sexo masculino, 13 anos e o agressor, desconhecido, tinha de 15 a 19 anos. A violência por substância corrosiva teve como vítima um adolescente de 13 anos, do sexo masculino, cujo agressor foi o pai, sendo o alcoolismo a situação presente. CONCLUSÕES: Os resultados apontam para a importância epidemiológica do abuso físico contra crianças e adolescentes e podem contribuir para a elaboração de estratégias de prevenção e acompanhamento das vítimas
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Background. Recent studies have sought to describe HIV infection and transmission characteristics around the world. Identification of early HIV-1 infection is essential to proper surveillance and description of regional transmission trends. In this study we compare people recently infected (RI) with HIV-1, as defined by Serologic Testing Algorithm for Recent HIV Seroconversion (STARHS), to those with chronic infection. Methodology/Principal Findings Subjects were identified from 2002-2004 at four testing sites in São Paulo. Of 485 HIV-1-positive subjects, 57 (12%) were defined as RI. Of the participants, 165 (34.0%) were aware of their serostatus at the time of HIV-1 testing. This proportion was statistically larger (p<0.001) among the individuals without recent infection (n = 158, 95.8%) compared to 7 individuals (4.2%) with recently acquired HIV-1 infection. In the univariate analysis, RI was more frequent in <25 and >59 years-old age strata (p<0.001). The majority of study participants were male (78.4%), 25 to 45 years-old (65.8%), white (63.2%), single (61.7%), with family income of four or more times the minimum wage (41.0%), but with an equally distributed educational level. Of those individuals infected with HIV-1, the predominant route of infection was sexual contact (89.4%), with both hetero (47.5%) and homosexual (34.5%) exposure. Regarding sexual activity in these individuals, 43.9% reported possible HIV-1 exposure through a seropositive partner, and 49.4% reported multiple partners, with 47% having 2 to 10 partners and 37.4% 11 or more; 53.4% of infected individuals reported condom use sometimes; 34.2% reported non-injecting, recreational drug use and 23.6% were reactive for syphilis by VDRL. Subjects younger than 25 years of age were most vulnerable according to the multivariate analysis. ) Conclusions/Significance In this study, we evaluated RI individuals and discovered that HIV-1 has been spreading among younger individuals in São Paulo and preventive approaches should, therefore, target this age stratum
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In order to assess the prevalence of and risk factors for aminoglycoside-associated nephrotoxicity in intensive care units (ICUs), we evaluated 360 consecutive patients starting aminoglycoside therapy in an ICU. The patients had a baseline calculated glomerular filtration rate (cGFR) of ?30 ml/min/1.73 m2. Among these patients, 209 (58 per cent) developed aminoglycoside-associated nephrotoxicity (the acute kidney injury [AKI] group, which consisted of individuals with a decrease in cGFR of >20 per cent from the baseline cGFR), while 151 did not (non-AKI group). Both groups had similar baseline cGFRs. The AKI group developed a lower cGFR nadir (45 ± 27 versus 79 ± 39 ml/min/1.73 m2 for the non-AKI group; P < 0.001); was older (56 ± 18 years versus 52 ± 19 years for the non-AKI group; P = 0.033); had a higher prevalence of diabetes (19.6 per cent versus 9.3 per cent for the non-AKI group; P = 0.007); was more frequently treated with other nephrotoxic drugs (51 per cent versus 38 per cent for the non-AKI group; P = 0.024); used iodinated contrast more frequently (18 per cent versus 8 per cent for the non-AKI group; P = 0.0054); and showed a higher prevalence of hypotension (63 per cent versus 44 per cent for the non-AKI group; P = 0.0003), shock (56 per cent versus 31 per cent for the non-AKI group; P < 0.0001), and jaundice (19 per cent versus 8 per cent for the non-AKI group; P = 0.0036). The mortality rate was 44.5 per cent for the AKI group and 29.1 per cent for the non-AKI group (P = 0.0031). A logistic regression model identified as significant (P < 0.05) the following independent factors that affected aminoglycoside-associated nephrotoxicity: a baseline cGFR of <60 ml/min/1.73 m2 (odds ratio [OR], 0.42), diabetes (OR, 2.13), treatment with other nephrotoxins (OR, 1.61) or iodinated contrast (OR, 2.13), and hypotension (OR, 1.83). (To continue) In conclusion, AKI was frequent among ICU patients receiving an aminoglycoside, and it was associated with a high rate of mortality. The presence of diabetes or hypotension and the use of other nephrotoxic drugs and iodinated contrast were independent risk factors for the development of aminoglycoside-associated nephrotoxicity
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This multicentric population-based study in Brazil is the first national effort to estimate the prevalence of hepatitis B (HBV) and risk factors in the capital cities of the Northeast, Central-West, and Federal Districts (2004-2005). Random multistage cluster sampling was used to select persons 13-69 years of age. Markers for HBV were tested by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. The HBV genotypes were determined by sequencing hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg). Multivariate analyses and simple catalytic model were performed. Overall, 7,881 persons were included; < 70 per cent were not vaccinated. Positivity for HBsAg was less than 1 per cent among non-vaccinated persons and genotypes A, D, and F co-circulated. The incidence of infection increased with age with similar force of infection in all regions. Males and persons having initiated sexual activity were associated with HBV infection in the two settings; healthcare jobs and prior hospitalization were risk factors in the Federal District. Our survey classified these regions as areas with HBV endemicity and highlighted the risk factors differences among the settings
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OBJETIVOS: Evaluar los factores de riesgo de enfermedades crónicas no transmisibles (ECNT) e identificar las desigualdades sociales relacionadas con su distribución en la población adulta brasileña.MÉTODOS: Se estudiaron los factores de riesgo de ECNT (entre ellos el consumo de tabaco, el sobrepeso y la obesidad, el bajo consumo de frutas y vegetales [BCFV], la insuficiente actividad física en el tiempo de ocio [IAFTO], el estilo de vida sedentario y el consumo excesivo de alcohol) en una muestra probabilística de 54369 adultos de 26 capitales estatales de Brasil y el Distrito Federal en 2006. Se utilizó el Sistema de Vigilancia de los Factores Protectores y de Riesgo para Enfermedades Crónicas No Transmisibles por Entrevistas Telefónicas (VIGITEL), un sistema de encuestas telefónicas asistido por computadora, y se calcularon las prevalencias ajustadas por la edad para las tendencias en cuanto al nivel educacional mediante la regresión de Poisson con modelos lineales. RESULTADOS: Los hombres informaron mayor consumo de tabaco, sobrepeso, BCFV, estilo de vida sedentario y consumo excesivo de alcohol que las mujeres, pero menos IAFTO. En los hombres, la educación se asoció con un mayor sobrepeso y un estilo de vida sedentario, pero con un menor consumo de tabaco, BCFV e IAFTO. En las mujeres, la educación se asoció con un menor consumo de tabaco, sobrepeso, obesidad, BCFV e IAFTO, pero aumentó el estilo de vida sedentario CONCLUSIONES: En Brasil, la prevalencia de factores de riesgo para ECNT (excepto IAFTO) es mayor en los hombres que en las mujeres. En ambos sexos, el nivel de educación influye en la prevalencia de los factores de riesgo para ECNT
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Background: Coronary artery disease (CAD) is among the main causes of death in developed countries, and diet and lifestyle can influence CAD incidence. Objective: To evaluate the association of coronary artery disease risk score with dietary, anthropometric and biochemical components in adults clinically selected for a lifestyle modification program. Methods: 362 adults (96 men, 266 women, 53.9 +/- 9.4 years) fulfilled the inclusion criteria by presenting all the required data. The Framingham score was calculated and the IV Brazilian Guideline on Dyslipidemia and Prevention of Atherosclerosis was adopted for classification of the CAD risks. Anthropometric assessments included waist circumference (WC), body fat and calculated BMI (kg/m(2)) and muscle-mass index (MMI kg/m(2)). Dietary intake was estimated through 24 h dietary recall. Fasting blood was used for biochemical analysis. Metabolic Syndrome (MS) was diagnosed using NCEP-ATPIII (2001) criteria. Logistic regression was used to determine the odds of CAD risks according to the altered components of MS, dietary, anthropometric, and biochemical components. Results: For a sample with a BMI 28.5 +/- 5.0 kg/m(2) the association with lower risk (<10% CAD) were lower age (<60 years old), and plasma values of uric acid. The presence of MS within low, intermediary, and high CAD risk categories was 30.8%, 55.5%, and 69.8%, respectively. The independent risk factors associated with CAD risk score was MS and uric acid, and the protective factors were recommended intake of saturated fat and fiber and muscle mass index. Conclusion: Recommended intake of saturated fat and dietary fiber, together with proper muscle mass, are inversely associated with CAD risk score. On the other hand, the presence of MS and high plasma uric acid are associated with CAD risk score.
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The structural engineering community in Brazil faces new challenges with the recent occurrence of high intensity tornados. Satellite surveillance data shows that the area covering the south-east of Brazil, Uruguay and some of Argentina is one of the world most tornado-prone areas, second only to the infamous tornado alley in central United States. The design of structures subject to tornado winds is a typical example of decision making in the presence of uncertainty. Structural design involves finding a good balance between the competing goals of safety and economy. This paper presents a methodology to find the optimum balance between these goals in the presence of uncertainty. In this paper, reliability-based risk optimization is used to find the optimal safety coefficient that minimizes the total expected cost of a steel frame communications tower, subject to extreme storm and tornado wind loads. The technique is not new, but it is applied to a practical problem of increasing interest to Brazilian structural engineers. The problem is formulated in the partial safety factor format used in current design codes, with all additional partial factor introduced to serve as optimization variable. The expected cost of failure (or risk) is defined as the product of a. limit state exceedance probability by a limit state exceedance cost. These costs include costs of repairing, rebuilding, and paying compensation for injury and loss of life. The total expected failure cost is the sum of individual expected costs over all failure modes. The steel frame communications, tower subject of this study has become very common in Brazil due to increasing mobile phone coverage. The study shows that optimum reliability is strongly dependent on the cost (or consequences) of failure. Since failure consequences depend oil actual tower location, it turn,,; out that different optimum designs should be used in different locations. Failure consequences are also different for the different parties involved in the design, construction and operation of the tower. Hence, it is important that risk is well understood by the parties involved, so that proper contracts call be made. The investigation shows that when non-structural terms dominate design costs (e.g, in residential or office buildings) it is not too costly to over-design; this observation is in agreement with the observed practice for non-optimized structural systems. In this situation, is much easier to loose money by under-design. When by under-design. When structural material cost is a significant part of design cost (e.g. concrete dam or bridge), one is likely to lose significantmoney by over-design. In this situation, a cost-risk-benefit optimization analysis is highly recommended. Finally, the study also shows that under time-varying loads like tornados, the optimum reliability is strongly dependent on the selected design life.
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Tamarindus indica has been used in folk medicine as an antidiabetic, a digestive aid, and a carminative, among other uses. Currently, there is no information in the toxicology literature concerning the safety of T. indica extract. We evaluated the clastogenic and/or genotoxic potential of fruit pulp extract of this plant in vivo in peripheral blood and liver cells of Wistar rats, using the comet assay, and in bone marrow cells of Swiss mice, using the micronucleus test. The extract was administered by gavage at doses of 1000, 1500 and 2000 mg/kg body weight. Peripheral blood and liver cells from Wistar rats were collected 24 h after treatment, for the comet assay. The micronucleus test was carried out in bone marrow cells from Swiss mice collected 24 h after treatment. The extract made with T. indica was devoid of clastogenic and genotoxic activities in the cells of the rodents, when administered orally at these three acute doses.
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According to Brazilian National Data Survey diabetes is the fifth cause for hospitalization and is one of the ten major causes of mortality in this country. Aims to stratify the estimated cardiovascular risk (eCVR) in a population of type 2 diabetics (T2DM) according to the Framingham prediction equations as well as to determine the association between eCVR with metabolic and clinical control of the disease. Methods From 2000 to 2001 a cross-sectional multicenter study was conducted in 13 public out-patients diabetes/endocrinology clinics from 8 Brazilian cities. The 10-year risk of developing coronary heart disease (CHD) was estimated by the prediction equations described by Wilson et al (Circulation 1998). LDL equations were preferably used; when patients missed LDL data we used total cholesterol equations instead. Results Data from 1382 patients (59.0% female) were analyzed. Median and inter-quartile range (IQ) of age and duration of diabetes were 57.4 (51-65) and 8.8 (3-13) years, respectively without differences according to the gender. Forty-two percent of these patients were overweight and 35.4% were obese (the prevalence of higher BMI and obesity in this T2DM group was significantly higher in women than in men; p < 0.001). The overall estimated eCVR in T2DM patients was 21.4 (13.5-31.3). The eCVR was high (> 20%) in 738 (53.4%), intermediate in 202 (14.6%) and low in 442 (32%) patients. Men [25.1(15.4-37.3)] showed a higher eCVR than women [18.8 (12.4-27.9) p < 0.001]. The most common risk factor was high LDL-cholesterol (80.8%), most frequently found in women than in men (p = 0.01). The median of risk factors present was three (2-4) without gender differences. Overall we observed that 60 (4.3%) of our patients had none, 154(11.1%) one, 310 (22.4%) two, 385 (27.9%) three, 300 (21.7%) four, 149 (10.5%) five and six, (2%) six risk factors. A higher eCVR was noted in overweight or obese patients (p = 0.01 for both groups). No association was found between eCVR with age or a specific type of diabetes treatment. A correlation was found between eCVR and duration of diabetes (p < 0.001), BMI (p < 0.001), creatinine (p < 0.001) and triglycerides levels (p < 0.001) but it was not found with HbA1c, fasting blood glucose and postprandial glucose. A higher eCVR was observed in patients with retinopathy (p < 0.001) and a tendency in patients with microalbuminuria (p = 0.06). Conclusion: our study showed that in this group of Brazilian T2DM the eCVR was correlated with the lipid profile and it was higher in patients with microvascular chronic complications. No correlation was found with glycemic control parameters. These data could explain the failure of intensive glycemic control programs aiming to reduce cardiovascular events observed in some studies.
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Background: Genetic polymorphisms of the TCF7L2 gene are strongly associated with large increments in type 2 diabetes risk in different populations worldwide. In this study, we aimed to confirm the effect of the TCF7L2 polymorphism rs7903146 on diabetes risk in a Brazilian population and to assess the use of this genetic marker in improving diabetes risk prediction in the general population. Methods: We genotyped the single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) rs7903146 of the TCF7L2 gene in 560 patients with known coronary disease enrolled in the MASS II (Medicine, Angioplasty, or Surgery Study) Trial and in 1,449 residents of Vitoria, in Southeast Brazil. The associations of this gene variant to diabetes risk and metabolic characteristics in these two different populations were analyzed. To access the potential benefit of using this marker for diabetes risk prediction in the general population we analyzed the impact of this genetic variant on a validated diabetes risk prediction tool based on clinical characteristics developed for the Brazilian general population. Results: SNP rs7903146 of the TCF7L2 gene was significantly associated with type 2 diabetes in the MASS-II population (OR = 1.57 per T allele, p = 0.0032), confirming, in the Brazilian population, previous reports of the literature. Addition of this polymorphism to an established clinical risk prediction score did not increased model accuracy (both area under ROC curve equal to 0.776). Conclusion: TCF7L2 rs7903146 T allele is associated with a 1.57 increased risk for type 2 diabetes in a Brazilian cohort of patients with known coronary heart disease. However, the inclusion of this polymorphism in a risk prediction tool developed for the general population resulted in no improvement of performance. This is the first study, to our knowledge, that has confirmed this recent association in a South American population and adds to the great consistency of this finding in studies around the world. Finally, confirming the biological association of a genetic marker does not guarantee improvement on already established screening tools based solely on demographic variables.
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Background: In family studies, it is important to evaluate the impact of genes and environmental factors on traits of interest. In particular, the relative influences of both genes and the environment may vary in different strata of the population of interest, such as young and old individuals, or males and females. Methods: In this paper, extensions of the variance components model are used to evaluate heterogeneity in the genetic and environmental variance components due to the effects of sex and age (the cutoff between young and old was 43 yrs). The data analyzed were from 81 Brazilian families (1,675 individuals) of the Baependi Family Heart Study. Results: The models allowing for heterogeneity of variance components by sex suggest that genetic and environmental variances are not different in males and females for diastolic blood pressure, LDL-cholesterol, and HDL-cholesterol, independent of the covariates included in the models. However, for systolic blood pressure, fasting glucose and triglycerides, the evidence for heterogeneity was dependent on the covariates in the model. For instance, in the presence of sex and age covariates, heterogeneity in the genetic variance component was suggested for fasting glucose. But, for systolic blood pressure, there was no evidence of heterogeneity in any of the two variance components. Except for the LDL-cholesterol, models allowing for heterogeneity by age provide evidence of heterogeneity in genetic variance for triglycerides and systolic and diastolic blood pressure. There was evidence of heterogeneity in environmental variance in fasting glucose and HDL-cholesterol. Conclusions: Our results suggest that heterogeneity in trait variances should not be ignored in the design and analyses of gene-finding studies involving these traits, as it may generate additional information about gene effects, and allow the investigation of more sophisticated models such as the model including sex-specific oligogenic variance components.