Deterministic mathematical model for the prediction of the as-cast macrostructure

A multiphase deterministic mathematical model was implemented to predict the formation of the grain macrostructure during unidirectional solidification. The model consists of macroscopic equations of energy, mass, and species conservation coupled with dendritic growth models. A grain nucleation model based on a Gaussian distribution of nucleation undercoolings was also adopted. At some solidification conditions, the cooling curves calculated with the model showed oscillations (""wiggles""), which prevented the correct prediction of the average grain size along the structure. Numerous simulations were carried out at nucleation conditions where the oscillations are absent, enabling an assessment of the effect of the heat transfer coefficient on the average grain size and columnar-to-equiaxed transition.

Human Error Contribution in Collision and Grounding of Oil Tankers

The purpose of this article is to present a quantitative analysis of the human failure contribution in the collision and/or grounding of oil tankers, considering the recommendation of the ""Guidelines for Formal Safety Assessment"" of the International Maritime Organization. Initially, the employed methodology is presented, emphasizing the use of the technique for human error prediction to reach the desired objective. Later, this methodology is applied to a ship operating on the Brazilian coast and, thereafter, the procedure to isolate the human actions with the greatest potential to reduce the risk of an accident is described. Finally, the management and organizational factors presented in the ""International Safety Management Code"" are associated with these selected actions. Therefore, an operator will be able to decide where to work in order to obtain an effective reduction in the probability of accidents. Even though this study does not present a new methodology, it can be considered as a reference in the human reliability analysis for the maritime industry, which, in spite of having some guides for risk analysis, has few studies related to human reliability effectively applied to the sector.

FLOW PROPERTIES AND TUBE FRICTION FACTOR OF MILK CREAM: INFLUENCE OF TEMPERATURE AND FAT CONTENT

The rheological behavior of milk cream was studied for different fat contents (0.10 to 0.31) and for a wide temperature range (2 and 87C) using a rotational rheometer. Newtonian behavior was observed, except for fat content between 0.20 and 0.31 and temperature between 2 and 33C, where viscoplastic behavior was remarkable. The rheological parameters (Newtonian viscosity, plastic viscosity and yield stress) and density were well correlated to temperature and fat content. Tube friction factor during flow of cream was experimentally obtained at various flow rates, temperatures and tube diameters (86 < Re < 2.3 x 104, 38 < Re(B) < 8.8 x 103, 1.1 x 103 < He < 6.7 x 103). The proposed correlations for density and rheological parameters were applied for the prediction of friction factor for laminar and turbulent flow of cream using well-known equations for Newtonian and viscoplastic flow. The good agreement between experimental and predicted values confirms the reliability of the proposed correlations for describing the flow behavior of cream. PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS This paper presents correlations for the calculation of density and rheological parameters (Newtonian viscosity, Bingham plastic viscosity and yield stress) of milk cream as functions of temperature (2-87C) and fat content (0.10-0.31). Because of the large temperature range, the proposed correlations are useful for process design and optimization in dairy processing. An example of practical application is presented in the text, where the correlations were applied for the prediction of friction factor for laminar and turbulent tube flow of cream using well-known equations for Newtonian and viscoplastic flow, which are summarized in the text. The comparison with experimental data obtained at various flow rates, temperatures and tube diameters showed a good agreement, which confirms the reliability of the proposed correlations.

Prediction of Crude Oil Properties and Chemical Composition by Means of Steady-State and Time-Resolved Fluorescence

Steady-state and time-resolved fluorescence measurements are reported for several crude oils and their saturates, aromatics, resins, and asphaltenes (SARA) fractions (saturates, aromatics and resins), isolated from maltene after pentane precipitation of the asphaltenes. There is a clear relationship between the American Petroleum Institute (API) grade of the crude oils and their fluorescence emission intensity and maxima. Dilution of the crude oil samples with cyclohexane results in a significant increase of emission intensity and a blue shift, which is a clear indication of the presence of energy-transfer processes between the emissive chromophores present in the crude oil. Both the fluorescence spectra and the mean fluorescence lifetimes of the three SARA fractions and their mixtures indicate that the aromatics and resins are the major contributors to the emission of crude oils. Total synchronous fluorescence scan (TSFS) spectral maps are preferable to steady-state fluorescence spectra for discriminating between the fractions, making TSFS maps a particularly interesting choice for the development of fluorescence-based methods for the characterization and classification of crude oils. More detailed studies, using a much wider range of excitation and emission wavelengths, are necessary to determine the utility of time-resolved fluorescence (TRF) data for this purpose. Preliminary models constructed using TSFS spectra from 21 crude oil samples show a very good correlation (R(2) > 0.88) between the calculated and measured values of API and the SARA fraction concentrations. The use of models based on a fast fluorescence measurement may thus be an alternative to tedious and time-consuming chemical analysis in refineries.

Portuguese version of the Delirium Rating Scale-Revised-98: reliability and validity

Objective To assess the validity and the reliability of the Portuguese version of the Delirium Rating Scale-Revised-98 (DRS-R-98). Methods The scale was translated into Portuguese and back-translated into English. After assessing its face validity, five diagnostic groups (n = 64; delirium, depression, dementia, schizophrenia and others) were evaluated by two independent researchers blinded to the diagnosis. Diagnosis and severity of delirium as measured by the DRS-R-98 were compared to clinical diagnosis, Mini-Mental State Exam, Confusion Assessment Method, and Clinical Global Impressions scale (CGI). Results Mean and rnedian DRS-R-98 total scores significantly distinguished delirium from the other groups (p < 0.001). Inter-rater reliability (ICC between 0.9 and 1) and internal consistency (alpha = 0.91) were very high. DRS-R-98 severity scores correlated highly with the CGI. Mean DRS-R-98 severity scores during delirium differed significantly (p < 0.01) from the post-treatment values. The area under the curve established by ROC analysis was 0.99 and using the cut-off Value of 20 the scale showed sensitivity and specificity of 92.6% and 94.6%, respectively. Conclusion The Portuguese version of the DRS-R-98 is a valid and reliable measure of delirium that distinguishes delirium from other disorders and is sensitive to change in delirium severity, which may be of great value for longitudinal studies. Copyright (c) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Derivation and external validation of a simple prediction model for the diagnosis of type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in the Brazilian urban population

A risk score model was developed based in a population of 1,224 individuals from the general population without known diabetes aging 35 years or more from an urban Brazilian population sample in order to select individuals who should be screened in subsequent testing and improve the efficacy of public health assurance. External validation was performed in a second, independent, population from a different city ascertained through a similar epidemiological protocol. The risk score was developed by multiple logistic regression and model performance and cutoff values were derived from a receiver operating characteristic curve. Model`s capacity of predicting fasting blood glucose levels was tested analyzing data from a 5-year follow-up protocol conducted in the general population. Items independently and significantly associated with diabetes were age, BMI and known hypertension. Sensitivity, specificity and proportion of further testing necessary for the best cutoff value were 75.9, 66.9 and 37.2%, respectively. External validation confirmed the model`s adequacy (AUC equal to 0.72). Finally, model score was also capable of predicting fasting blood glucose progression in non-diabetic individuals in a 5-year follow-up period. In conclusion, this simple diabetes risk score was able to identify individuals with an increased likelihood of having diabetes and it can be used to stratify subpopulations in which performing of subsequent tests is necessary and probably cost-effective.

Evaluating SVM and MLDA in the extraction of discriminant regions for mental state prediction

Pattern recognition methods have been successfully applied in several functional neuroimaging studies. These methods can be used to infer cognitive states, so-called brain decoding. Using such approaches, it is possible to predict the mental state of a subject or a stimulus class by analyzing the spatial distribution of neural responses. In addition it is possible to identify the regions of the brain containing the information that underlies the classification. The Support Vector Machine (SVM) is one of the most popular methods used to carry out this type of analysis. The aim of the current study is the evaluation of SVM and Maximum uncertainty Linear Discrimination Analysis (MLDA) in extracting the voxels containing discriminative information for the prediction of mental states. The comparison has been carried out using fMRI data from 41 healthy control subjects who participated in two experiments, one involving visual-auditory stimulation and the other based on bimanual fingertapping sequences. The results suggest that MLDA uses significantly more voxels containing discriminative information (related to different experimental conditions) to classify the data. On the other hand, SVM is more parsimonious and uses less voxels to achieve similar classification accuracies. In conclusion, MLDA is mostly focused on extracting all discriminative information available, while SVM extracts the information which is sufficient for classification. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

New body fat prediction equations for severely obese patients

Background & aims: Severe obesity imposes physical limitations to body composition assessment. Our aim was to compare body fat (BF) estimations of severely obese patients obtained by bioelectrical impedance (BIA) and air displacement plethysmography (ADP) for development of new equations for BF prediction. Methods: Severely obese subjects (83 female/36 mate, mean age = 41.6 +/- 11.6 years) had BF estimated by BIA and ADP. The agreement of the data was evaluated using Bland-Altman`s graphic and concordance correlation coefficient (CCC). A multivariate regression analysis was performed to develop and validate new predictive equations. Results: BF estimations from BIA (64.8 +/- 15 kg) and ADP (65.6 +/- 16.4 kg) did not differ (p > 0.05, with good accuracy, precision, and CCC), but the Bland- Altman graphic showed a wide Limit of agreement (- 10.4; 8.8). The standard BIA equation overestimated BF in women (-1.3 kg) and underestimated BF in men (5.6 kg; p < 0.05). Two BF new predictive equations were generated after BIA measurement, which predicted BF with higher accuracy, precision, CCC, and limits of agreement than the standard BIA equation. Conclusions: Standard BIA equations were inadequate for estimating BF in severely obese patients. Equations developed especially for this population provide more accurate BF assessment. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd and European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. All rights reserved.

Very early prediction of response to HCV treatment with PEG-IFN-alfa-2a and ribavirin in HIV/HCV-coinfected patients

The objective of this study was to find very early viral kinetic markers to predict nonresponse to hepatitis C virus (HCV) therapy in a group of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/HCV-coinfected patients. Twenty-six patients (15 HCV genotype-1 and 11 genotype-3) were treated with a 48-week regimen of peginterferon-alfa-2a (PEG-IFN) (180 mu g/week) and weight-based ribavirin (11 mg/kg/day). Samples were collected at baseline; 4, 8, 12, 18, 24, 30, 36 and 42 h; days 2, 3, 4, 7, 8, 15, 22, 29, 43 and 57 then weekly and monthly. Five patients discontinued treatment. Seven patients (27%) achieved a sustained virological response (SVR). Nadir HCV RNA levels were observed 1.6 +/- 0.3 days after initiation of therapy, followed by a 0.3- to 12.9-fold viral rebound until the administration of the second dose of PEG-IFN, which were not associated with SVR or HCV genotype. A viral decline < 1.19 log for genotype-1 and < 0.97 log for genotype-3, 2 days after starting therapy, had a negative predictive value (NPV) of 100% for SVR. The day 2 virological response had a similar positive predictive value for SVR as a rapid virological response at week 4. In addition, a second-phase viral decline slope (i.e., measured from day 2 to 29) < 0.3 log/week had a NPV = 100% for SVR. We conclude that first-phase viral decline at day 2 and second-phase viral decline slope (< 0.3 log/week) are excellent predictors of nonresponse. Further studies are needed to validate these viral kinetic parameters as early on-treatment prognosticators of nonresponse in patients with HCV and HIV.

Test-retest reliability of isokinetic strength and endurance tests in patients with intermittent claudication

The objective was to determine the reliability of isokinetic strength and endurance testing in the ankle joints of patients with intermittent claudication. Twenty-three patients with peripheral artery disease (PAD) and symptoms of intermittent claudication participated in the study. Isokinetic strength and endurance testing of the ankle joint were performed in symptomatic and asymptomatic legs on 3 separate days. Intraclass coefficient correlation of peak torque (PT) and total work (TW) ranged from 0.77 to 0.92 and 0.89 to 0.96, respectively. PT and TW increased significantly and similarly in both legs from day 1 to day 2 (PT: +42 +/- 84% in the symptomatic leg and +33 +/- 51% in the asymptomatic leg, p < 0.05;TW: +38 +/- 26% in the symptomatic leg and +26 +/- 50% in the asymptomatic leg, p < 0.05). In conclusion, isokinetic strength and endurance testing in the ankle joints of patients with PAD presents reliability coefficients ranging from 0.77 to 0.96. However, strength and endurance increased between the first and the other test sessions performed on separate days, suggesting that two test sessions are necessary for the accurate evaluation of strength and endurance in patients with PAD.

Brazilian version of the Functional Assessment Measure: cross-cultural adaptation and reliability evaluation

The objective of this prospective study was to perform a cross-cultural adaptation of the Functional Assessment Measure (FAM) into Brazilian Portuguese, and to assess the test-retest reliability. The instrument was translated, back-translated, pretested, and reviewed by a committee. The Brazilian version was assessed in 61 brain-injury patients. Intrarater and interrater reliability was verified by a test-retest procedure (intraclass correlation). Intrarater reliability was moderate-to-excellent; interrater reliability was moderate-to-excellent, with the exception of one item. The Brazilian version of the FAM has acceptable test-retest reliability. Results suggest the use of the Brazilian version of the FAM in the Brazilian population, for disability evaluation and outcome assessment. Further research is required to evaluate the psychometric properties of the scale. International Journal of Rehabilitation Research 34:89-91 (C) 2011 Wolters Kluwer Health vertical bar Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

Early identification of leptospirosis-associated pulmonary hemorrhage syndrome by use of a validated prediction model

Objective: To identify prediction factors for the development of leptospirosis-associated pulmonary hemorrhage syndrome (LPHS). Methods: We conducted a prospective cohort study. The study comprised of 203 patients, aged >= 14 years, admitted with complications of the severe form of leptospirosis at the Emilio Ribas Institute of Infectology (Sao Paulo, Brazil) between 1998 and 2004. Laboratory and demographic data were obtained and the severity of illness score and involvement of the lungs and others organs were determined. Logistic regression was performed to identify independent predictors of LPHS. A prospective validation cohort of 97 subjects with severe form of leptospirosis admitted at the same hospital between 2004 and 2006 was used to independently evaluate the predictive value of the model. Results: The overall mortality rate was 7.9%. Multivariate logistic regression revealed that five factors were independently associated with the development of LPHS: serum potassium (mmol/L) (OR = 2.6; 95% CI = 1.1-5.9); serum creatinine (mmol/L) (OR = 1.2; 95% CI = 1.1-1.4); respiratory rate (breaths/min) (OR = 1.1; 95% CI = 1.1-1.2); presenting shock (OR = 69.9; 95% CI = 20.1-236.4), and Glasgow Coma Scale Score (GCS) < 15 (OR = 7.7; 95% CI = 1.3-23.0). We used these findings to calculate the risk of LPHS by the use of a spreadsheet. In the validation cohort, the equation classified correctly 92% of patients (Kappa statistic = 0.80). Conclusions: We developed and validated a multivariate model for predicting LPHS. This tool should prove useful in identifying LPHS patients, allowing earlier management and thereby reducing mortality. (C) 2009 The British Infection Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cross-cultural Adaptation, Reliability and Validity of the DAFS-R in a Sample of Brazilian Older Adults

The Direct Assessment of Functional Status-Revised (DAFS-R) is an instrument developed to objectively measure functional capacities required for independent living. The objective of this study was to translate and culturally adapt the DAFS-R for Brazilian Portuguese (DAFS-BR) and to evaluate its reliability and validity. The DAFS-BR was administered to 89 older patients classified previously as normal controls, mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and Alzheimer`s disease (AD). The results indicated good internal consistency (Cronbach`s alpha = 0.78) in the total sample. The DAFS-BR showed high interobserver reliability (0.996; p < .001) as well as test-retest stability over 1-week interval (0.995; p < .001). Correlation between the DAFS-BR total score and the Informant Questionnaire on Cognitive Decline in the Elderly (IQCODE) was moderate and significant (r = -.65, p < .001) in the total sample, whereas it did not reach statistical significance within each diagnostic group. Receiver operating characteristic curve analyses suggested that DAFS-BR has good sensitivity and specificity to identify MCI and AD. Results suggest that DAFS-BR can document degrees of severity of functional impairment among Brazilian older adults.

Individual risk prediction of nodal and distant metastasis for patients with typical bronchial carcinoid tumors

Objective: Bronchial typical carcinoid tumors are tow-grade malignancies. However, metastases are diagnosed in some patients. Predicting the individual risk of these metastases to determine patients eligible for a radical lymphadenectomy and patients to be followed-up because of distant metastasis risk is relevant. Our objective was to screen for predictive criteria of bronchial typical carcinoid tumor aggressiveness based on a logistic regression model using clinical, pathological and biomolecular data. Methods: A multicenter retrospective cohort study, including 330 consecutive patients operated on for bronchial typical carcinoid tumors and followed-up during a period more than 10 years in two university hospitals was performed. Selected data to predict the individual risk for both nodal and distant metastasis were: age, gender, TNM staging, tumor diameter and location (central/peripheral), tumor immunostaining index of p53 and Ki67, Bcl2 and the extracellular density of neoformed microvessels and of collagen/elastic extracellular fibers. Results: Nodal and distant metastasis incidence was 11% and 5%, respectively. Univariate analysis identified all the studied biomarkers as related to nodal metastasis. Multivariate analysis identified a predictive variable for nodal metastasis: neo angiogenesis, quantified by the neoformed pathological microvessels density. Distant metastasis was related to mate gender. Discussion: Predictive models based on clinical and biomolecular data could be used to predict individual risk for metastasis. Patients under a high individual risk for lymph node metastasis should be considered as candidates to mediastinal lymphadenectomy. Those under a high risk of distant metastasis should be followed-up as having an aggressive disease. Conclusion: Individual risk prediction of bronchial typical carcinoid tumor metastasis for patients operated on can be calculated in function of biomolecular data. Prediction models can detect high-risk patients and help surgeons to identify patients requiring radical lymphadenectomy and help oncologists to identify those as having an aggressive disease requiring prolonged follow-up. (C) 2008 European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Tests for ovarian reserve: reliability and utility

Purpose of review This review discusses ovarian reserve tests for ovulation induction and their application in determining fertility capacity, and their current applications to assess risk of natural ovarian failure and to estimate ovarian function after cancer treatment. Recent findings The current arsenal of ovarian reserve tests comprises hormonal markers [basal follicle stimulating hormone, estradiol, inhibin-B, antimullerian hormone (AMH)] and ultrasonographic markers [ovarian volume, antral follicle counts (AFCs)]. These markers have limitations in terms of which test(s) should be used to reliably predict ovarian reserve with regard to accuracy, invasiveness, cost, convenience, and utility. Several studies have correlated sonographic AFCs with serum AMH levels for predicting the ovarian response to ovulation induction protocols during assisted reproduction treatments. Summary Serum AMH levels and AFC are reliable tests for predicting the ovarian response to ovulation induction. However, none of the currently employed tests of ovarian reserve can reliably predict pregnancy after assisted conception. Further, ovarian reserve tests cannot predict the onset of reproductive and hormonal menopause; thus, they should be used with caution for reproductive life-programming counseling. Moreover, there is no evidence to support the use of ovarian reserve tests to estimate the risk of ovarian sufficiency after cancer treatments.