61 resultados para Plausible Inference


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Marinussaurus curupira, a new genus and species of Gymnophthalmidae lizard is described from Iranduba, state of Amazonas, Brazil. The genus is characterized by an elongate body; short and stout pentadactyl limbs; all digits clawed; single frontonasal; two prefrontals; absence of frontoparietals; interparietal and parietals forming a straight posterior margin, with interparietal shorter than parietals; distinctive ear opening and eyelid; few temporals; three pairs of chin shields; nasal divided; a distinct collar; smooth, mainly hexagonal, dorsal scales; smooth quadrangular ventral scales; two precloacal and three femoral pores on each side in males; pores between three or four scales. Parsimony (PAR) and partitioned Bayesian (BA) phylogenetic analyses with morphological and molecular data recovered the new genus as a member of the Ecpleopodini radiation of the Cercosaurinae. A close relationship of the new genus with Arthrosaura is postulated.

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Background: Mites (Acari) have traditionally been treated as monophyletic, albeit composed of two major lineages: Acariformes and Parasitiformes. Yet recent studies based on morphology, molecular data, or combinations thereof, have increasingly drawn their monophyly into question. Furthermore, the usually basal (molecular) position of one or both mite lineages among the chelicerates is in conflict to their morphology, and to the widely accepted view that mites are close relatives of Ricinulei. Results: The phylogenetic position of the acariform mites is examined through employing SSU, partial LSU sequences, and morphology from 91 chelicerate extant terminals (forty Acariformes). In a static homology framework, molecular sequences were aligned using their secondary structure as guide, whereby regions of ambiguous alignment were discarded, and pre-aligned sequences analyzed under parsimony and different mixed models in a Bayesian inference. Parsimony and Bayesian analyses led to trees largely congruent concerning infraordinal, well-supported branches, but with low support for inter-ordinal relationships. An exception is Solifugae + Acariformes (P. P = 100%, J. = 0.91). In a dynamic homology framework, two analyses were run: a standard POY analysis and an analysis constrained by secondary structure. Both analyses led to largely congruent trees; supporting a (Palpigradi (Solifugae Acariformes)) clade and Ricinulei as sister group of Tetrapulmonata with the topology (Ricinulei (Amblypygi (Uropygi Araneae))). Combined analysis with two different morphological data matrices were run in order to evaluate the impact of constraining the analysis on the recovered topology when employing secondary structure as a guide for homology establishment. The constrained combined analysis yielded two topologies similar to the exclusively molecular analysis for both morphological matrices, except for the recovery of Pedipalpi instead of the (Uropygi Araneae) clade. The standard (direct optimization) POY analysis, however, led to the recovery of trees differing in the absence of the otherwise well-supported group Solifugae + Acariformes. Conclusions: Previous studies combining ribosomal sequences and morphology often recovered topologies similar to purely morphological analyses of Chelicerata. The apparent stability of certain clades not recovered here, like Haplocnemata and Acari, is regarded as a byproduct of the way the molecular homology was previously established using the instrumentalist approach implemented in POY. Constraining the analysis by a priori homology assessment is defended here as a way of maintaining the severity of the test when adding new data to the analysis. Although the strength of the method advocated here is keeping phylogenetic information from regions usually discarded in an exclusively static homology framework; it still has the inconvenience of being uninformative on the effect of alignment ambiguity on resampling methods of clade support estimation. Finally, putative morphological apomorphies of Solifugae + Acariformes are the reduction of the proximal cheliceral podomere, medial abutting of the leg coxae, loss of sperm nuclear membrane, and presence of differentiated germinative and secretory regions in the testis delivering their products into a common lumen.

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Ultra-high-energy cosmic rays (UHECRs), with energies above similar to 6 x 10(19) eV, seem to show a weak correlation with the distribution of matter relatively near to us in the universe. It has earlier been proposed that UHECRs could be accelerated in either the nucleus or the outer lobes of the nearby radio galaxy Cen A. We show that UHECR production at a spatially intermediate location about 15 kpc northeast from the nucleus, where the jet emerging from the nucleus is observed to strike a large star-forming shell of gas, is a plausible alternative. A relativistic jet is capable of accelerating lower energy heavy seed cosmic rays (CRs) to UHECRs on timescales comparable to the time it takes the jet to pierce the large gaseous cloud. In this model, many CRs arising from a starburst, with a composition enhanced in heavy elements near the knee region around PeV, are boosted to ultra-high energies by the relativistic shock of a newly oriented jet. This model matches the overall spectrum shown by the Auger data and also makes a prediction for the chemical composition as a function of particle energy. We thus predict an observable anisotropy in the composition at high energy in the sense that lighter nuclei should preferentially be seen toward the general direction of Cen A. Taking into consideration the magnetic field models for the Galactic disk and a Galactic magnetic wind, this scenario may resolve the discrepancy between HiRes and Auger results concerning the chemical composition of UHECRs.

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Thanks to recent advances in molecular biology, allied to an ever increasing amount of experimental data, the functional state of thousands of genes can now be extracted simultaneously by using methods such as cDNA microarrays and RNA-Seq. Particularly important related investigations are the modeling and identification of gene regulatory networks from expression data sets. Such a knowledge is fundamental for many applications, such as disease treatment, therapeutic intervention strategies and drugs design, as well as for planning high-throughput new experiments. Methods have been developed for gene networks modeling and identification from expression profiles. However, an important open problem regards how to validate such approaches and its results. This work presents an objective approach for validation of gene network modeling and identification which comprises the following three main aspects: (1) Artificial Gene Networks (AGNs) model generation through theoretical models of complex networks, which is used to simulate temporal expression data; (2) a computational method for gene network identification from the simulated data, which is founded on a feature selection approach where a target gene is fixed and the expression profile is observed for all other genes in order to identify a relevant subset of predictors; and (3) validation of the identified AGN-based network through comparison with the original network. The proposed framework allows several types of AGNs to be generated and used in order to simulate temporal expression data. The results of the network identification method can then be compared to the original network in order to estimate its properties and accuracy. Some of the most important theoretical models of complex networks have been assessed: the uniformly-random Erdos-Renyi (ER), the small-world Watts-Strogatz (WS), the scale-free Barabasi-Albert (BA), and geographical networks (GG). The experimental results indicate that the inference method was sensitive to average degree k variation, decreasing its network recovery rate with the increase of k. The signal size was important for the inference method to get better accuracy in the network identification rate, presenting very good results with small expression profiles. However, the adopted inference method was not sensible to recognize distinct structures of interaction among genes, presenting a similar behavior when applied to different network topologies. In summary, the proposed framework, though simple, was adequate for the validation of the inferred networks by identifying some properties of the evaluated method, which can be extended to other inference methods.

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Background: Identifying local similarity between two or more sequences, or identifying repeats occurring at least twice in a sequence, is an essential part in the analysis of biological sequences and of their phylogenetic relationship. Finding such fragments while allowing for a certain number of insertions, deletions, and substitutions, is however known to be a computationally expensive task, and consequently exact methods can usually not be applied in practice. Results: The filter TUIUIU that we introduce in this paper provides a possible solution to this problem. It can be used as a preprocessing step to any multiple alignment or repeats inference method, eliminating a possibly large fraction of the input that is guaranteed not to contain any approximate repeat. It consists in the verification of several strong necessary conditions that can be checked in a fast way. We implemented three versions of the filter. The first is simply a straightforward extension to the case of multiple sequences of an application of conditions already existing in the literature. The second uses a stronger condition which, as our results show, enable to filter sensibly more with negligible (if any) additional time. The third version uses an additional condition and pushes the sensibility of the filter even further with a non negligible additional time in many circumstances; our experiments show that it is particularly useful with large error rates. The latter version was applied as a preprocessing of a multiple alignment tool, obtaining an overall time (filter plus alignment) on average 63 and at best 530 times smaller than before (direct alignment), with in most cases a better quality alignment. Conclusion: To the best of our knowledge, TUIUIU is the first filter designed for multiple repeats and for dealing with error rates greater than 10% of the repeats length.

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Concentrations of cations (Na(+), Ca(2+), Mg(2+), K(+), NH(4) (+)), anions (HCO(3) (-), Cl(-), NO(3) (-), SO(4) (2-), PO(4) (3-)) and suspended sediments in the Madeira River water were determined near the city of Porto Velho (RO), in order to assess variation in water chemistry from 2004 to 2007. Calcium and bicarbonate were the dominant cation and anion, respectively. Significant seasonal differences were found, with highest concentrations occurring during the dry season, as expected from the drainage of Andean carbonate-rich substratum. Interannual variations were also observed, but became significant only when annual average discharge was 25% less than normal. Under this atypical discharge condition, bicarbonate was replaced by sulfate, and higher suspended sediment concentrations and loads were also observed. Compared to previously published studies, it appears that no significant changes in water chemistry have occurred during the last 20-30 years, although differences in approaches and sampling designs among this and previous studies may not allow detection of modest changes. The calculated suspended sediment load reported here is close to the values presented elsewhere, reinforcing the relative importance of this river as a sediment supplier for the Amazon Basin. Seasonality has a significant control on the chemistry of Madeira River waters, and severe decrease in discharge due to anthropogenic changes, such as construction of reservoirs or the occurrence of drier years-a plausible consequence of global climate change-may lead to modification in the chemical composition as well in the sediment deliver to the Amazon River.

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Motivation: Understanding the patterns of association between polymorphisms at different loci in a population ( linkage disequilibrium, LD) is of fundamental importance in various genetic studies. Many coefficients were proposed for measuring the degree of LD, but they provide only a static view of the current LD structure. Generative models (GMs) were proposed to go beyond these measures, giving not only a description of the actual LD structure but also a tool to help understanding the process that generated such structure. GMs based in coalescent theory have been the most appealing because they link LD to evolutionary factors. Nevertheless, the inference and parameter estimation of such models is still computationally challenging. Results: We present a more practical method to build GM that describe LD. The method is based on learning weighted Bayesian network structures from haplotype data, extracting equivalence structure classes and using them to model LD. The results obtained in public data from the HapMap database showed that the method is a promising tool for modeling LD. The associations represented by the learned models are correlated with the traditional measure of LD D`. The method was able to represent LD blocks found by standard tools. The granularity of the association blocks and the readability of the models can be controlled in the method. The results suggest that the causality information gained by our method can be useful to tell about the conservability of the genetic markers and to guide the selection of subset of representative markers.

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This paper describes the modeling of a weed infestation risk inference system that implements a collaborative inference scheme based on rules extracted from two Bayesian network classifiers. The first Bayesian classifier infers a categorical variable value for the weed-crop competitiveness using as input categorical variables for the total density of weeds and corresponding proportions of narrow and broad-leaved weeds. The inferred categorical variable values for the weed-crop competitiveness along with three other categorical variables extracted from estimated maps for the weed seed production and weed coverage are then used as input for a second Bayesian network classifier to infer categorical variables values for the risk of infestation. Weed biomass and yield loss data samples are used to learn the probability relationship among the nodes of the first and second Bayesian classifiers in a supervised fashion, respectively. For comparison purposes, two types of Bayesian network structures are considered, namely an expert-based Bayesian classifier and a naive Bayes classifier. The inference system focused on the knowledge interpretation by translating a Bayesian classifier into a set of classification rules. The results obtained for the risk inference in a corn-crop field are presented and discussed. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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We examine the representation of judgements of stochastic independence in probabilistic logics. We focus on a relational logic where (i) judgements of stochastic independence are encoded by directed acyclic graphs, and (ii) probabilistic assessments are flexible in the sense that they are not required to specify a single probability measure. We discuss issues of knowledge representation and inference that arise from our particular combination of graphs, stochastic independence, logical formulas and probabilistic assessments. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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This paper presents a family of algorithms for approximate inference in credal networks (that is, models based on directed acyclic graphs and set-valued probabilities) that contain only binary variables. Such networks can represent incomplete or vague beliefs, lack of data, and disagreements among experts; they can also encode models based on belief functions and possibilistic measures. All algorithms for approximate inference in this paper rely on exact inferences in credal networks based on polytrees with binary variables, as these inferences have polynomial complexity. We are inspired by approximate algorithms for Bayesian networks; thus the Loopy 2U algorithm resembles Loopy Belief Propagation, while the Iterated Partial Evaluation and Structured Variational 2U algorithms are, respectively, based on Localized Partial Evaluation and variational techniques. (C) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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The practicability of estimating directional wave spectra based on a vessel`s 1st order response has been recently addressed by several researchers. Different alternatives regarding statistical inference methods and possible drawbacks that could arise from their application have been extensively discussed, with an apparent preference for estimations based on Bayesian inference algorithms. Most of the results on this matter, however, rely exclusively on numerical simulations or at best on few and sparse full-scale measurements, comprising a questionable basis for validation purposes. This paper discusses several issues that have recently been debated regarding the advantages of Bayesian inference and different alternatives for its implementation. Among those are the definition of the best set of input motions, the number of parameters required for guaranteeing smoothness of the spectrum in frequency and direction and how to determine their optimum values. These subjects are addressed in the light of an extensive experimental campaign performed with a small-scale model of an FPSO platform (VLCC hull), which was conducted in an ocean basin in Brazil. Tests involved long and short crested seas with variable levels of directional spreading and also bimodal conditions. The calibration spectra measured in the tank by means of an array of wave probes configured the paradigm for estimations. Results showed that a wide range of sea conditions could be estimated with good precision, even those with somewhat low peak periods. Some possible drawbacks that have been pointed out in previous works concerning the viability of employing large vessels for such a task are then refuted. Also, it is shown that a second parameter for smoothing the spectrum in frequency may indeed increase the accuracy in some situations, although the criterion usually proposed for estimating the optimum values (ABIC) demands large computational effort and does not seem adequate for practical on-board systems, which require expeditious estimations. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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In this paper, 2 different approaches for estimating the directional wave spectrum based on a vessel`s 1st-order motions are discussed, and their predictions are compared to those provided by a wave buoy. The real-scale data were obtained in an extensive monitoring campaign based on an FPSO unit operating at Campos Basin, Brazil. Data included vessel motions, heading and tank loadings. Wave field information was obtained by means of a heave-pitch-roll buoy installed in the vicinity of the unit. `two of the methods most widely used for this kind of analysis are considered, one based on Bayesian statistical inference, the other consisting of a parametrical representation of the wave spectrum. The performance of both methods is compared, and their sensitivity to input parameters is discussed. This analysis complements a set of previous validations based on numerical and towing-tank results and allows for a preliminary evaluation of reliability when applying the methodology at full scale.

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A new species of Gesneriaceae discovered in remnants of deciduous forests on limestone outcrops in Minas Gerais, Brazil, is described and compared with morphologically related taxa. This plant presents the diagnostic features of the tribe Gloxinieae, but a unique combination of morphological traits distinguishes this taxon from previously described genera. Its phylogenetic position was inferred based on analyzing DNA sequences variation of five loci: the rpl1 intron, rps16 intron, trnL-F intron-spacer, a portion of the plastid-expressed glutamine synthetase gene (ncpGS) and the ribosomal DNA internal transcribed spacer (ITS). Molecular phylogenetic analyses confirm the position of this new species in the Gloxinieae, as a sister lineage of a clade including the Brazilian genera Mandirola and Goyazia. However, tests using topological constraints do not reject the alternative relationship that places this taxon with Gloxiniopsis in a monophyletic group. To accomodate this species in the current generic circumscription of gloxinieae, the new genus chautemsia A.O. Araujo V.C. Souza is created.

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In a sample of censored survival times, the presence of an immune proportion of individuals who are not subject to death, failure or relapse, may be indicated by a relatively high number of individuals with large censored survival times. In this paper the generalized log-gamma model is modified for the possibility that long-term survivors may be present in the data. The model attempts to separately estimate the effects of covariates on the surviving fraction, that is, the proportion of the population for which the event never occurs. The logistic function is used for the regression model of the surviving fraction. Inference for the model parameters is considered via maximum likelihood. Some influence methods, such as the local influence and total local influence of an individual are derived, analyzed and discussed. Finally, a data set from the medical area is analyzed under the log-gamma generalized mixture model. A residual analysis is performed in order to select an appropriate model.

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In a previous study, we observed no spatial genetic structure in Mexican populations of the parasitoids Chelonus insularis Cresson (Hymenoptera: Braconidae) and Campoletis sonorensis Cameron (Hymenoptera: Ichneumonidae) by using microsatellite markers In the current study, we Investigated whether for these important parasitoids of the fall armyworm (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) there is any genetic structure at a larger scale Insects of both species were collected across the American continent and their phylogeography was Investigated using both nuclear and mitochondria] markers Our results suggest an ancient north-south migration of C insularis, whereas no clear pattern] could be determined for C sonorensis. Nonetheless, the resulting topology indicated the existence of a cryptic taxon within this later species. a few Canadian specimens determined as C. sonorensis branch outside a clack composed of the Argentinean Chelonus grioti Blanchard, the Brazilian Chelonus flavicincta Ashmead, and the rest of the C sonorensis individuals The individuals revealing the cryptic taxon were collected from Thichoplusia in (Hubner) (Lepidoptera. Noctuidae) on tomato (Lycopersicon spp) and may represent a biotype that has adapted to the early season phenology of its host. Overall, the loosely defined spatial genetic structure previously shown at a local fine scale also was found at the larger scale, for both species Dispersal of these insects may be partly driven by wind as suggested by genetic similarities between Individuals coming from very distant locations.