Electric Power Forecasting Methodologies of Some South American Countries: A Comparative Analysis

In this paper, a comparative analysis of the long-term electric power forecasting methodologies used in some South American countries, is presented. The purpose of this study is to compare and observe if such methodologies have some similarities, and also examine the behavior of the results when they are applied to the Brazilian electric market. The abovementioned power forecasts were performed regarding the main four consumption classes (residential, industrial, commercial and rural) which are responsible for approximately 90% of the national consumption. The tool used in this analysis was the SAS (c) program. The outcome of this study allowed identifying various methodological similarities, mainly those related to the econometric variables used by these methods. This fact strongly conditioned the comparative results obtained.

Computer-Assisted Numerical Analysis for Oxygen and Carbon Dioxide Mass Transfer in Blood Oxygenators

A two-dimensional numeric simulator is developed to predict the nonlinear, convective-reactive, oxygen mass exchange in a cross-flow hollow fiber blood oxygenator. The numeric simulator also calculates the carbon dioxide mass exchange, as hemoglobin affinity to oxygen is affected by the local pH value, which depends mostly on the local carbon dioxide content in blood. Blood pH calculation inside the oxygenator is made by the simultaneous solution of an equation that takes into account the blood buffering capacity and the classical Henderson-Hasselbach equation. The modeling of the mass transfer conductance in the blood comprises a global factor, which is a function of the Reynolds number, and a local factor, which takes into account the amount of oxygen reacted to hemoglobin. The simulator is calibrated against experimental data for an in-line fiber bundle. The results are: (i) the calibration process allows the precise determination of the mass transfer conductance for both oxygen and carbon dioxide; (ii) very alkaline pH values occur in the blood path at the gas inlet side of the fiber bundle; (iii) the parametric analysis of the effect of the blood base excess (BE) shows that V(CO2) is similar in the case of blood metabolic alkalosis, metabolic acidosis, or normal BE, for a similar blood inlet P(CO2), although the condition of metabolic alkalosis is the worst case, as the pH in the vicinity of the gas inlet is the most alkaline; (iv) the parametric analysis of the effect of the gas flow to blood flow ratio (Q(G)/Q(B)) shows that V(CO2) variation with the gas flow is almost linear up to Q(G)/Q(B) = 2.0. V(O2) is not affected by the gas flow as it was observed that by increasing the gas flow up to eight times, the V(O2) grows only 1%. The mass exchange of carbon dioxide uses the full length of the hollow-fiber only if Q(G)/Q(B) > 2.0, as it was observed that only in this condition does the local variation of pH and blood P(CO2) comprise the whole fiber bundle.

Recycling Krylov subspaces for efficient large-scale electrical impedance tomography

Electrical impedance tomography (EIT) captures images of internal features of a body. Electrodes are attached to the boundary of the body, low intensity alternating currents are applied, and the resulting electric potentials are measured. Then, based on the measurements, an estimation algorithm obtains the three-dimensional internal admittivity distribution that corresponds to the image. One of the main goals of medical EIT is to achieve high resolution and an accurate result at low computational cost. However, when the finite element method (FEM) is employed and the corresponding mesh is refined to increase resolution and accuracy, the computational cost increases substantially, especially in the estimation of absolute admittivity distributions. Therefore, we consider in this work a fast iterative solver for the forward problem, which was previously reported in the context of structural optimization. We propose several improvements to this solver to increase its performance in the EIT context. The solver is based on the recycling of approximate invariant subspaces, and it is applied to reduce the EIT computation time for a constant and high resolution finite element mesh. In addition, we consider a powerful preconditioner and provide a detailed pseudocode for the improved iterative solver. The numerical results show the effectiveness of our approach: the proposed algorithm is faster than the preconditioned conjugate gradient (CG) algorithm. The results also show that even on a standard PC without parallelization, a high mesh resolution (more than 150,000 degrees of freedom) can be used for image estimation at a relatively low computational cost. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Title Model for Computer Networks Optimization

The TCP/IP architecture was consolidated as a standard to the distributed systems. However, there are several researches and discussions about alternatives to the evolution of this architecture and, in this study area, this work presents the Title Model to contribute with the application needs support by the cross layer ontology use and the horizontal addressing, in a next generation Internet. For a practical viewpoint, is showed the network cost reduction for the distributed programming example, in networks with layer 2 connectivity. To prove the title model enhancement, it is presented the network analysis performed for the message passing interface, sending a vector of integers and returning its sum. By this analysis, it is confirmed that the current proposal allows, in this environment, a reduction of 15,23% over the total network traffic, in bytes.

A modified epidemiological model for computer viruses

Since the computer viruses pose a serious problem to individual and corporative computer systems, a lot of effort has been dedicated to study how to avoid their deleterious actions, trying to create anti-virus programs acting as vaccines in personal computers or in strategic network nodes. Another way to combat viruses propagation is to establish preventive policies based on the whole operation of a system that can be modeled with population models, similar to those that are used in epidemiological studies. Here, a modified version of the SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) model is presented and how its parameters are related to network characteristics is explained. Then, disease-free and endemic equilibrium points are calculated, stability and bifurcation conditions are derived and some numerical simulations are shown. The relations among the model parameters in the several bifurcation conditions allow a network design minimizing viruses risks. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Dynamic models for computer viruses

Computer viruses are an important risk to computational systems endangering either corporations of all sizes or personal computers used for domestic applications. Here, classical epidemiological models for disease propagation are adapted to computer networks and, by using simple systems identification techniques a model called SAIC (Susceptible, Antidotal, Infectious, Contaminated) is developed. Real data about computer viruses are used to validate the model. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Identification by computer-simulated RFLP of phytoplasmas associated with eggplant giant calyx representative of two subgroups, a lineage of 16SrIII-J and the new subgroup 16SrIII-U

Symptoms resembling giant calyx, a graft-transmissible disease, were observed on 1-5% of eggplant (aubergine; Solanum melongena L.) plants in production fields in Sao Paulo state, Brazil. Phytoplasmas were detected in 1 2 of 1 2 samples from symptomatic plants that were analysed by a nested PCR assay employing 16S rRNA gene primers R16mF2/R16mR1 followed by R16F2n/R16R2. RFLP analysis of the resulting rRNA gene products (1.2 kb) indicated that all plants contained similar phytoplasmas, each closely resembling strains previously classified as members of RFLP group 16SrIII (X-disease group). Virtual RFLP and phylogenetic analyses of sequences derived from PCR products identified phytoplasmas infecting eggplant crops grown in Piracicaba as a lineage of the subgroup 16SrIII-J, whereas phytoplasmas detected in plants grown in Braganca Paulista were tentatively classified as members of a novel subgroup 16SrIII-U. These findings confirm eggplant as a new host of group 16SrIII-J phytoplasmas and extend the known diversity of strains belonging to this group in Brazil.

The introduction of the Salmonella/microsome mutagenicity assay in a groundwater monitoring program

The objective of this study was to verify the possible inclusion of the Salmonella/microsome mutagenicity assay in a groundwater monitoring program as a complementary assay to assess water quality. Groundwater samples belonging to seven wells from different types of aquifers were analyzed. Three different methods for sample preparation were used: membrane filtration; liquid-liquid and XAD-4 extraction. The filtered samples were tested using TA98, TA100, YG1041 and YG1042 and the water extracts only with TA98 and TA100. No mutagenic activity was observed in any of the 16 filtered samples tested. Out of the 10 samples analyzed using XAD-4 extraction, five showed mutagenic activity with potency ranging from 130 to 1500 revertants/L. Concerning the liquid-liquid extraction, from the 11 samples analyzed, 3 showed mutagenicity. The XAD-4 extraction was the most suitable sample preparation. TA98 without S9 was found to be the most sensitive testing condition. The wells presenting water samples with mutagenic activity belonged to unconfined aquifers, which are more vulnerable to contamination. The data suggest that Salmonella/microsome assay can be used as an efficient screening tool to monitor groundwater for mutagenic activity. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Molecular modeling and QSAR studies of a set of indole and benzimidazole derivatives as H(4) receptor antagonists

Histamine is an important biogenic amine, which acts with a group of four G-protein coupled receptors (GPCRs), namely H(1) to H(4) (H(1)R - H(4)R) receptors. The actions of histamine at H(4)R are related to immunological and inflammatory processes, particularly in pathophysiology of asthma, and H(4)R ligands having antagonistic properties could be helpful as antiinflammatory agents. In this work, molecular modeling and QSAR studies of a set of 30 compounds, indole and benzimidazole derivatives, as H(4)R antagonists were performed. The QSAR models were built and optimized using a genetic algorithm function and partial least squares regression (WOLF 5.5 program). The best QSAR model constructed with training set (N = 25) presented the following statistical measures: r (2) = 0.76, q (2) = 0.62, LOF = 0.15, and LSE = 0.07, and was validated using the LNO and y-randomization techniques. Four of five compounds of test set were well predicted by the selected QSAR model, which presented an external prediction power of 80%. These findings can be quite useful to aid the designing of new anti-H(4) compounds with improved biological response.

Generation and Analysis of Interaction Energy Maps of p-Substituted Benzoic Acid [(5-Nitro-thiophen-2-yl)-methylene]-Hydrazides Active against MRSA

In this preliminary study eighteen p-substituted benzoic acid [(5-nitro-thiophen-2-yl)-methylene]-hydrazides with antimicrobial activity were evaluated against multidrug-resistant Staphylococcus aureus, correlating the three-dimensional characteristics of the ligands with their respective bioactivities. The computer programs Sybyl and CORINA were used, respectively, for the design and three-dimensional conversion of the ligands. Molecular interaction fields were calculated using GRID program. Calculations using Volsurf resulted in a statistically consistent model with 48 structural descriptors showing that hydrophobicity is a fundamental property in the analyzed biological response.

Distinct conformational properties determined by implicit and explicit representation of protein-solvent interactions. An analytical and computer simulation study

In the protein folding problem, solvent-mediated forces are commonly represented by intra-chain pairwise contact energy. Although this approximation has proven to be useful in several circumstances, it is limited in some other aspects of the problem. Here we show that it is possible to achieve two models to represent the chain-solvent system. one of them with implicit and other with explicit solvent, such that both reproduce the same thermodynamic results. Firstly, lattice models treated by analytical methods, were used to show that the implicit and explicitly representation of solvent effects can be energetically equivalent only if local solvent properties are time and spatially invariant. Following, applying the same reasoning Used for the lattice models, two inter-consistent Monte Carlo off-lattice models for implicit and explicit solvent are constructed, being that now in the latter the solvent properties are allowed to fluctuate. Then, it is shown that the chain configurational evolution as well as the globule equilibrium conformation are significantly distinct for implicit and explicit solvent systems. Actually, strongly contrasting with the implicit solvent version, the explicit solvent model predicts: (i) a malleable globule, in agreement with the estimated large protein-volume fluctuations; (ii) thermal conformational stability, resembling the conformational hear resistance of globular proteins, in which radii of gyration are practically insensitive to thermal effects over a relatively wide range of temperatures; and (iii) smaller radii of gyration at higher temperatures, indicating that the chain conformational entropy in the unfolded state is significantly smaller than that estimated from random coil configurations. Finally, we comment on the meaning of these results with respect to the understanding of the folding process. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Using Computer-aided Drug Design and Medicinal Chemistry Strategies in the Fight Against Diabetes

The aim of this work is to present a simple, practical and efficient protocol for drug design, in particular Diabetes, which includes selection of the illness, good choice of a target as well as a bioactive ligand and then usage of various computer aided drug design and medicinal chemistry tools to design novel potential drug candidates in different diseases. We have selected the validated target dipeptidyl peptidase IV (DPP-IV), whose inhibition contributes to reduce glucose levels in type 2 diabetes patients. The most active inhibitor with complex X-ray structure reported was initially extracted from the BindingDB database. By using molecular modification strategies widely used in medicinal chemistry, besides current state-of-the-art tools in drug design (including flexible docking, virtual screening, molecular interaction fields, molecular dynamics. ADME and toxicity predictions), we have proposed 4 novel potential DPP-IV inhibitors with drug properties for Diabetes control, which have been supported and validated by all the computational tools used herewith.

Computer-aided drug design and ADMET predictions for identification and evaluation of novel potential farnesyltransferase inhibitors in cancer therapy

We have used various computational methodologies including molecular dynamics, density functional theory, virtual screening, ADMET predictions and molecular interaction field studies to design and analyze four novel potential inhibitors of farnesyltransferase (FTase). Evaluation of two proposals regarding their drug potential as well as lead compounds have indicated them as novel promising FTase inhibitors, with theoretically interesting pharmacotherapeutic profiles, when Compared to the very active and most cited FTase inhibitors that have activity data reported, which are launched drugs or compounds in clinical tests. One of our two proposals appears to be a more promising drug candidate and FTase inhibitor, but both derivative molecules indicate potentially very good pharmacotherapeutic profiles in comparison with Tipifarnib and Lonafarnib, two reference pharmaceuticals. Two other proposals have been selected with virtual screening approaches and investigated by LIS, which suggest novel and alternatives scaffolds to design future potential FTase inhibitors. Such compounds can be explored as promising molecules to initiate a research protocol in order to discover novel anticancer drug candidates targeting farnesyltransferase, in the fight against cancer. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effect of a 36-month pharmaceutical care program on pharmacotherapy adherence in elderly diabetic and hypertensive patients

Objective: The primary objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of a pharmaceutical care program on pharmacotherapy adherence in elderly diabetic and hypertensive patients. The clinical outcomes of this pharmacotherapy adherence approach were the secondary objective of the study. Setting: Public Primary Health Care Unit in a municipality in the Brazilian State of Sao Paulo. Method: A 36-month randomized, controlled, prospective clinical trial was carried out with 200 patients divided into two groups: control (n = 100) and intervention (n = 100). The control group received the usual care offered by the Primary Health Care Unit (medical and nurse consultancies). The patients randomized into the intervention group received pharmaceutical care intervention besides the usual care offered. Main outcome measure: Pharmacotherapy adherence (Morisky-Green test translated into Portuguese and computerized dispensed medication history) and clinical measurements (blood pressure, fasting glucose, A1C hemoglobin, triglycerides and total cholesterol) were evaluated at the baseline and up to 36 months. A P value < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results: A total of 97 patients from the intervention group and 97 patients from the control group completed the study (n = 194). Significant improvements in the pharmacotherapy adherence were verified for the intervention group according to the Morisky-Green test (50.5% of adherent patients at baseline vs. 83.5% of adherent patients after 36 months; P < 0.001) and the computerized dispensed medication history (52.6% of adherent patients at baseline vs. 83.5% of adherent patients after 36 months; P < 0.001); no significant changes were verified in the control group. Significant improvements in the number of patients reaching adequate values for their blood pressure (26.8% at baseline vs. 86.6% after 36-months; P < 0.001), fasting glucose (29.9% at baseline vs. 70.1% after 36 months; P < 0.001), A1C hemoglobin (3.3% at baseline vs. 63.3% after 36 months; P < 0.001), triglycerides (47.4% at baseline vs. 74.2% after 36 months; P < 0.001) and total cholesterol (59.8% at baseline vs. 80.4% after 36 months; P = 0.002) were verified in the intervention group, but remained unchanged in the control group. Conclusion: These results indicated the effectiveness of pharmaceutical care in improving pharmacotherapy adherence, with positive effects in the clinical outcomes of the patients studied.

The Ethics and Citizenship Program: a Brazilian experience in moral education

This article describes the Ethics and Citizenship Program, a moral education project developed by the Brazilian government to promote education in ethics and citizenship in Brazilian fundamental and middle schools through four key themes: ethics, democratic coexistence, human rights and social inclusion. Some findings from a research project that investigated whether such a program did in fact promote the ethical and citizenship awareness of participating students are outlined. As an introduction to the paper`s main concerns, the Brazilian socioeconomic context is characterised, followed by a description of the historical background of moral education in Brazil.