56 resultados para Long-range weather forecasts


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The analysis of one-, two-, and three-dimensional coupled map lattices is here developed under a statistical and dynamical perspective. We show that the three-dimensional CML exhibits low dimensional behavior with long range correlation and the power spectrum follows 1/f noise. This approach leads to an integrated understanding of the most important properties of these universal models of spatiotemporal chaos. We perform a complete time series analysis of the model and investigate the dependence of the signal properties by change of dimension. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Aging is known to have a degrading influence on many structures and functions of the human sensorimotor system. The present work assessed aging-related changes in postural sway using fractal and complexity measures of the center of pressure (COP) dynamics with the hypothesis that complexity and fractality decreases in the older individuals. Older subjects (68 +/- 4 years) and young adult subjects (28 +/- 7 years) performed a quiet stance task (60 s) and a prolonged standing task (30 min) where subjects were allowed to move freely. Long-range correlations (fractality) of the data were estimated by the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA); changes in entropy were estimated by the multi-scale entropy (MSE) measure. The DFA results showed that the fractal dimension was lower for the older subjects in comparison to the young adults but the fractal dimensions of both groups were not different from a 1/f noise, for time intervals between 10 and 600 s. The MSE analysis performed with the typically applied adjustment to the criterion distance showed a higher degree of complexity in the older subjects, which is inconsistent with the hypothesis that complexity in the human physiological system decreases with aging. The same MSE analysis performed without adjustment showed no differences between the groups. Taken all results together, the decrease in total postural sway and long-range correlations in older individuals are signs of an adaptation process reflecting the diminishing ability to generate adequate responses on a longer time scale.

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In this work, a study on the role of the long-range term of excess Gibbs energy models in the modeling of aqueous systems containing polymers and salts is presented. Four different approaches on how to account for the presence of polymer in the long-range term were considered, and simulations were conducted considering aqueous solutions of three different salts. The analysis of water activity curves showed that, in all cases, a liquid-phase separation may be introduced by the sole presence of the polymer in the long-range term, regardless of how it is taken into account. The results lead to the conclusion that there is no single exact solution for this problem, and that any kind of approach may introduce inconsistencies.

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Pitzer`s equation for the excess Gibbs energy of aqueous solutions of low-molecular electrolytes is extended to aqueous solutions of polyelectrolytes. The model retains the original form of Pitzer`s model (combining a long-range term, based on the Debye-Huckel equation, with a short-range term similar to the virial equation where the second osmotic virial coefficient depends on the ionic strength). The extension consists of two parts: at first, it is assumed that a constant fraction of the monomer units of the polyelectrolyte is dissociated, i.e., that fraction does not depend on the concentration of the polyelectrolyte, and at second, a modified expression for the ionic strength (wherein each charged monomer group is taken into account individually) is introduced. This modification is to account for the presence of charged polyelectrolyte chains, which cannot be regarded as punctual charges. The resulting equation was used to correlate osmotic coefficient data of aqueous solutions of a single polyelectrolyte as well as of binary mixtures of a single polyelectrolyte and a salt with low-molecular weight. It was additionally applied to correlate liquid-liquid equilibrium data of some aqueous two-phase systems that might form when a polyelectrolyte and another hydrophilic but neutral polymer are simultaneously dissolved in water. A good agreement between the experimental data and the correlation result is observed for all investigated systems. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Due to the several kinds of services that use the Internet and data networks infra-structures, the present networks are characterized by the diversity of types of traffic that have statistical properties as complex temporal correlation and non-gaussian distribution. The networks complex temporal correlation may be characterized by the Short Range Dependence (SRD) and the Long Range Dependence - (LRD). Models as the fGN (Fractional Gaussian Noise) may capture the LRD but not the SRD. This work presents two methods for traffic generation that synthesize approximate realizations of the self-similar fGN with SRD random process. The first one employs the IDWT (Inverse Discrete Wavelet Transform) and the second the IDWPT (Inverse Discrete Wavelet Packet Transform). It has been developed the variance map concept that allows to associate the LRD and SRD behaviors directly to the wavelet transform coefficients. The developed methods are extremely flexible and allow the generation of Gaussian time series with complex statistical behaviors.

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This article deals with the efficiency of fractional integration parameter estimators. This study was based on Monte Carlo experiments involving simulated stochastic processes with integration orders in the range]-1,1[. The evaluated estimation methods were classified into two groups: heuristics and semiparametric/maximum likelihood (ML). The study revealed that the comparative efficiency of the estimators, measured by the lesser mean squared error, depends on the stationary/non-stationary and persistency/anti-persistency conditions of the series. The ML estimator was shown to be superior for stationary persistent processes; the wavelet spectrum-based estimators were better for non-stationary mean reversible and invertible anti-persistent processes; the weighted periodogram-based estimator was shown to be superior for non-invertible anti-persistent processes.

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This work reports on rainwater dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from Ribeirao Preto (RP) and Araraquara over a period of 3 years. The economies of these two cities, located in Sao Paulo state (Brazil), are based on agriculture and related industries, and the region is strongly impacted by the burning of sugar cane foliage before harvesting. Highest DOC concentrations were obtained when air masses traversed sugar cane fields burned on the same day as the rain event. Significant increases in the DOC volume weighted means (VWM) during the harvest period, for both sites, and a good linear correlation (r=0.83) between DOC and K (a biomass burning marker) suggest that regional scale organic carbon emissions prevail over long-range transport. The DOC VWMs and standard deviations were 272 +/- 22 mu mol L-1 (n=193) and 338 +/- 40 mu mol L-1 (n=80) for RP and Araraquara, respectively, values which are at least two times higher than those reported for other regions influenced by biomass burning, such as the Amazon. These high DOC levels are discussed in terms of agricultural activities, particularly the large usage of biogenic fuels in Brazil, as well as the analytical method used in this work, which includes volatile organic carbon when reporting DOC values. Taking into account rainfall volume, estimated annual rainwater DOC fluxes for RP (4.8 g C m(-2) yr(-1)) and Araraquara (5.4 g C m(-2) yr(-1)) were close to that previously found for the Amazon region (4.8 g C m(-2) yr(-1)). This work also discusses whether previous calculations of the global rainwater carbon flux may have been underestimated, since they did not consider large inputs from biomass combustion sources, and suffered from a possible analytical bias. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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The (2,3)J(CH) dependence on dihedral angle (theta H-C-C-X) for cyclopentane derivatives was investigated. We observed that the combined use of experimentally obtained (2,3)J(CH) values and the theoretically determined dihedral angles between the corresponding nuclei can be used to infer the relative stereochemistry of the ring substituents in cyclopentane derivatives. There is a good correlation between the magnitude of (3)J(CH) and the dihedral angle between the hydrogen and the coupled carbon (R-2 = 0.88). Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Chorea-acanthocytosis (ChAc) is a rare autosomal recessive neurodegenerative disorder caused by loss of function mutations in the vacuolar protein sorting 13 homolog A (VPS13A) gene that encodes chorein. It is characterized by adult-onset chorea, peripheral acanthocytes, and neuropsychiatric symptoms. In the present study, we performed a comprehensive mutation screen, including sequencing and copy number variation (CNV) analysis, of the VPS13A gene in ChAc patients. All 73 exons and flanking regions of VPS13A were sequenced in 35 patients diagnosed with ChAc. To detect CNVs, we also performed real-time quantitative PCR and long-range PCR analyses for the VPS13A gene on patients in whom only a single heterozygous mutation was detected. We identified 36 pathogenic mutations, 20 of which were previously unreported, including two novel CNVs. In addition, we investigated the expression of chorein in 16 patients by Western blotting of erythrocyte ghosts. This demonstrated the complete absence of chorein in patients with pathogenic mutations. This comprehensive screen provides an accurate and useful method for the molecular diagnosis of ChAc. (C) 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

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Cutoff lows (COLs) pressure systems climatology for the Southern Hemisphere (SH), between 10 degrees S and 50 degrees S, using the National Center for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) and the ERA-40 European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) reanalyses are analyzed for the period 1979-1999. COLs were identified at three pressure levels (200, 300, and 500 hPa) using an objective method that considers the main physical characteristics of the conceptual model of COLs. Independently of the pressure level analyzed, the climatology from the ERA-40 reanalysis has more COLs systems than the NCEP-NCAR. However, both reanalyses present a large frequency of COLs at 300 hPa, followed by 500 and 200 hPa. The seasonality of COLs differs at each pressure level, but it is similar between the reanalyses. COLs are more frequent during summer, autumn, and winter at 200, 300, and 500 hPa, respectively. At these levels, they tend to occur around the continents, preferentially from southeastern Australia to New Zealand, the south of South America, and the south of Africa. To study the COLs at 200 and 300 hPa from a regional perspective, the SH was divided in three regions: Australia-New Zealand (60 E-130 W), South America (130 degrees W-20 degrees W), and southern Africa (20 degrees W-60 degrees E). The common COLs features in these sectors for both reanalyses are a short lifetime (similar to 80.0% and similar to 70.0% of COLs at 200 and 300 hPa, respectively, persisting for up to 3 days), mobility (similar to 70.0% and similar to 50% of COLs at 200 and 300 hPa, respectively, traveling distances of up to 1200 km), and an eastward propagation.

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In this Letter, we determine the kappa-distribution function for a gas in the presence of an external field of force described by a potential U(r). In the case of a dilute gas, we show that the kappa-power law distribution including the potential energy factor term can rigorously be deduced in the framework of kinetic theory with basis on the Vlasov equation. Such a result is significant as a preliminary to the discussion on the role of long range interactions in the Kaniadakis thermostatistics and the underlying kinetic theory. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Recurrent submicroscopic genomic copy number changes are the result of nonallelic homologous recombination (NAHR). Nonrecurrent aberrations, however, can result from different nonexclusive recombination-repair mechanisms. We previously described small microduplications at Xq28 containing MECP2 in four male patients with a severe neurological phenotype. Here, we report on the fine-mapping and breakpoint analysis of 16 unique microduplications. The size of the overlapping copy number changes varies between 0.3 and 2.3 Mb, and FISH analysis on three patients demonstrated a tandem orientation. Although eight of the 32 breakpoint regions coincide with low-copy repeats, none of the duplications are the result of NAHR. Bioinformatics analysis of the breakpoint regions demonstrated a 2.5-fold higher frequency of Alu interspersed repeats as compared with control regions, as well as a very high GC content (53%). Unexpectedly, we obtained the junction in only one patient by long-range PCR, which revealed nonhomologous end joining as the mechanism. Breakpoint analysis in two other patients by inverse PCR and subsequent array comparative genomic hybridization analysis demonstrated the presence of a second duplicated region more telomeric at Xq28, of which one copy was inserted in between the duplicated MECP2 regions. These data suggest a two-step mechanism in which part of Xq28 is first inserted near the MECP2 locus, followed by breakage-induced replication with strand invasion of the normal sister chromatid. Our results indicate that the mechanism by which copy number changes occur in regions with a complex genomic architecture can yield complex rearrangements.

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Submicron atmospheric particles in the Amazon Basin were characterized by a high-resolution aerosol mass spectrometer during the wet season of 2008. Patterns in the mass spectra closely resembled those of secondary-organic-aerosol (SOA) particles formed in environmental chambers from biogenic precursor gases. In contrast, mass spectral indicators of primary biological aerosol particles (PBAPs) were insignificant, suggesting that PBAPs contributed negligibly to the submicron fraction of particles during the period of study. For 40% of the measurement periods, the mass spectra indicate that in-Basin biogenic SOA production was the dominant source of the submicron mass fraction, contrasted to other periods (30%) during which out-of-Basin organic-carbon sources were significant on top of the baseline in-Basin processes. The in-Basin periods had an average organic-particle loading of 0.6 mu g m(-3) and an average elemental oxygen-to-carbon (O:C) ratio of 0.42, compared to 0.9 mu g m(-3) and 0.49, respectively, during periods of out-of-Basin influence. On the basis of the data, we conclude that most of the organic material composing submicron particles over the Basin derived from biogenic SOA production, a finding that is consistent with microscopy observations made in a concurrent study. This source was augmented during some periods by aged organic material delivered by long-range transport. Citation: Chen, Q., et al. (2009), Mass spectral characterization of submicron biogenic organic particles in the Amazon Basin, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L20806, doi: 10.1029/2009GL039880.

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Quasi-simultaneous vertically resolved multiwavelength aerosol Raman lidar observations were conducted in the near field (Praia, Cape Verde, 15 degrees N, 23.5 degrees W) and in the far field (Manaus, Amazon basin, Brazil, 2.5 degrees S, 60 degrees W) of the long-range transport regime between West Africa and South America. Based on a unique data set (case study) of spectrally resolved backscatter and extinction coefficients, and of the depolarization ratio a detailed characterization of aerosol properties, vertical stratification, mixing, and aging behavior during the long-distance travel in February 2008 (dry season in western Africa, wet season in the Amazon basin) is presented. While highly stratified aerosol layers of dust and smoke up to 5.5 km height were found close to Africa, the aerosol over Manaus was almost well-mixed, reached up to 3.5 km, and mainly consisted of aged biomass burning smoke. Citation: Ansmann, A., H. Baars, M. Tesche, D. Muller, D. Althausen, R. Engelmann, T. Pauliquevis, and P. Artaxo (2009), Dust and smoke transport from Africa to South America: Lidar profiling over Cape Verde and the Amazon rainforest, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L11802, doi: 10.1029/2009GL037923.

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We consider independent edge percolation models on Z, with edge occupation probabilities. We prove that oriented percolation occurs when beta > 1 provided p is chosen sufficiently close to 1, answering a question posed in Newman and Schulman (Commun. Math. Phys. 104: 547, 1986). The proof is based on multi-scale analysis.