Parametric and nonparametric statistical modelling of crop yield: implications for pricing crop insurance contracts

This article considers alternative methods to calculate the fair premium rate of crop insurance contracts based on county yields. The premium rate was calculated using parametric and nonparametric approaches to estimate the conditional agricultural yield density. These methods were applied to a data set of county yield provided by the Statistical and Geography Brazilian Institute (IBGE), for the period of 1990 through 2002, for soybean, corn and wheat, in the State of Paran. In this article, we propose methodological alternatives to pricing crop insurance contracts resulting in more accurate premium rates in a situation of limited data.

Modelling the progress of Asiatic citrus canker on Tahiti lime in relation to temperature and leaf wetness

The combined effect of temperature (15A degrees C, 20A degrees C, 25A degrees C, 30A degrees C, 35A degrees C, 40A degrees C and 42A degrees C) and leaf wetness duration (0, 4, 8 12, 16, 20 and 24 h) on infection and development of Asiatic citrus canker (Xanthomonas citri subsp. citri) on Tahiti lime plant was examined in growth chambers. No disease developed at 42A degrees C and zero hours of leaf wetness. Periods of leaf wetness as short as 4 h were sufficient for citrus canker infection. However, a longer leaf duration wetness (24 h) did not result in much increase in the incidence of citrus canker, but led to twice the number of lesions and four times the disease severity. Temperature was the greatest factor influencing disease development. At optimum temperatures (25-35A degrees C), there was 100% disease incidence. Maximum disease development was observed at 30-35A degrees C, with up to a 12-fold increase in lesion density, a 10-fold increase in lesion size and a 60-fold increase in disease severity.

Effects of light intensity and dilution rate on the semicontinuous cultivation of Arthrospira (Spirulina) platensis. A kinetic Monod-type approach

Semicontinuous cultures were carried out at different dilution rates (D) and light intensities (I) to determine the maximum productivity of Arthrospira platensis cultivated in helicoidal photobioreactor up to the achievement of pseudo-steady-state conditions. At I = 108 mu mol photons m(-2) s(-1), the semicontinuous regime ensured the highest values of maximum cell concentration (X(m) = 5772 +/- 113 mg L(-1)) and productivity (P(XS) = 1319 +/- 25 mg L(-1) d(-1)) at the lowest (D = 0.1 day(-1)) and the highest (D = 0.3 day(-1)) dilution rates, respectively. A kinetic model derived from that of Monod was proposed to determine the relationship between the product of light intensity to dilution rate (ID) and the cell productivity, which were shown to exert a combined influence on this parameter. This result put into evidence that pseudosteady-state conditions could be modified according to circumstances, conveniently varying one or other of the two independent variables. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Kinetic and thermodynamic investigation on clavulanic acid formation and degradation during glycerol fermentation by Streptomyces DAUFPE 3060

Clavulanic acid (CA) is a potent inhibitor of beta-lactamases, produced by some resistant pathogenic microorganisms, which allows efficient treatment of infectious diseases. The kinetic and thermodynamic parameters of CA production by a new isolate of Streptomyces DAUFPE 3060 and its degradation were evaluated. The effect of temperature on the system was investigated in the range 24-40 degrees C adopting an overall model accounting for (a) the Arrhenius-type formation of CA by fermentation, (b) the hypothetical reversible unfolding of the enzyme limiting the overall metabolism, and (c) the irreversible first-order degradation of CA. The higher rates of CA formation (k(CA) = 0,107 h(-1)) and degradation (k(d) = 0.062 h(-1)) were observed at 32 and 40 degrees C, respectively. The main thermodynamic parameters of the three above hypothesized events were estimated. In particular, the activation parameters of degradation (activation energy = 39.0 kJ/mol; Delta H(d)* = 36.5 kJ/mol; Delta S(d)* = -219.7 J/(mol K); Delta G(d)* = 103.5 kJ/mol) compare reasonably well with those reported in the literature for similar system without taking into account the other two events. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Stability of clavulanic acid under variable pH, ionic strength and temperature conditions. A new kinetic approach

Clavulanic acid (CA) is a beta-lactam antibiotic that alone exhibits only weak antibacterial activity, but is a potent inhibitor of beta-lactamases enzymes. For this reason it is used as a therapeutic in conjunction with penicillins and cephalosporins. However, it is a well-known fact that it is unstable not only during its production phase, but also during downstream processing. Therefore, the main objective of this study was the evaluation of CA long-term stability under different conditions of pH and temperature, in the presence of variable levels of different salts, so as to suggest the best conditions to perform its simultaneous production and recovery by two-phase polymer/salt liquid-liquid extractive fermentation. To this purpose, the CA stability was investigated at different values of pH (4.0-8.0) and temperature (20-45 degrees C), and the best conditions were met at a pH 6.0-7.2 and 20 degrees C. Its stability was also investigated at 30 degrees C in the presence of NaCl, Na(2)SO(4), CaCl(2) and MgSO(4) at concentrations of 0.1 and 0.5 M in Mcllvaine buffer (pH 6.5). All salts led to increased CA instability with respect to the buffer alone, and this effect decreased in following sequence: Na(2)SO(4) > MgSO(4) > CaCl(2) > NaCl. Kinetic and thermodynamic parameters of CA degradation were calculated adopting a new model that took into consideration the equilibrium between the active and a reversibly inactivated form of CA after long-time degradation. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

In vitro characterization of rosiglitazone metabolites and determination of the kinetic parameters employing rat liver microsomal fraction

Rosiglitazone (RSG), a thiazolidinedione antidiabetic drug, is metabolized by CYP450 enzymes into two main metabolites: N-desmethyl rosiglitazone (N-Dm-R) and rho-hydroxy rosiglitazone (rho-OH-R). In humans, CYP2C8 appears to have a major role in RSG metabolism. On the other hand, the in vitro metabolism of RSG in animals has not been described in literature yet. Based on these concerns, the kinetic metabolism study of RSG using rat liver microsomal fraction is described for the first time. Maximum velocity (V (max)) values of 87.29 and 51.09 nmol/min/mg protein were observed for N-Dm-R and rho-OH-R, respectively. Michaelis-Menten constant (K (m)) values were of 58.12 and 78.52 mu M for N-Dm-R and rho-OH-R, respectively. Therefore, these results demonstrated that this in vitro metabolism model presents the capacity of forming higher levels of N-Dm-R than of rho-OH-R, which also happens in humans. Three other metabolites were identified employing mass spectrometry detection under positive electrospray ionization: ortho-hydroxy-rosiglitazone (omicron-OH-R) and two isomers of N-desmethyl hydroxy-rosiglitazone. These metabolites have also been observed in humans. The results observed in this study indicate that rats could be a satisfactory model for RSG metabolism.

Reduction of enantioselectivity in the kinetic disposition and metabolism of verapamil in rats exposed to toluene

Toluene and verapamil are subject to extensive oxidative metabolism mediated by CYP enzymes, and their interaction can be stereoselective. In the present study we investigated the influence of toluene inhalation on the enantioselective kinetic disposition of verapamil and its metabolite, norverapamil, in rats. Male Wistar rats (n = 6 per group) received a single dose of racemic verapamil (10 mg/kg) orally at the fifth day of nose-only toluene or air (control group) inhalation for 6 h/day (25, 50, and 100 ppm). Serial blood samples were collected from the tail up to 6 h after verapamil administration. The plasma concentrations of verapamil and norverapamil enantiomers were analyzed by LC-MS/MS by using a Chiralpak AD column. Toluene inhalation did not influence the kinetic disposition of verapamil or norverapamil enantiomers (p > 0.05, Kruskal-Wallis test) in rats. The pharmacokinetics of verapamil was enantioselective in the control group, with a higher plasma proportion of the S-verapamil (AUC 250.8 versus 120.4 ng.h.mL(-1); p <= 0.05, Wilcoxon test) and S-norverapamil (AUC 72.3 versus 52.3 ng.h.mL(-1); p <= 0.05, Wilcoxon test). Nose-only exposure to toluene at 25, 50, or 100 ppm resulted in a lack of enantioselectivity for both verapamil and norverapamil. The study demonstrates the importance of the application of enantioselective methods in studies on the interaction between solvents and chiral drugs.

Influence of gestational diabetes mellitus on the stereoselective kinetic disposition and metabolism of labetalol in hypertensive patients

Purpose This study investigated the influence of gestational diabetes mellitus on the kinetic disposition and stereoselective metabolism of labetalol administered intravenously or orally. Methods Thirty hypertensive women during the last trimester of pregnancy were divided into four groups: non-diabetic and diabetic women treated with intravenous or oral labetalol. Results The pharmacokinetics of labetalol was not stereoselective in diabetic or non-diabetic pregnant women receiving the drug intravenously. However, oral administration of labetalol resulted in lower values of the area under the plasma concentration versus time curve (AUC) for the beta-blocker (RR) than for the other enantiomers in both diabetic and non-diabetic women. Gestational diabetes mellitus caused changes in the kinetic disposition of the labetalol stereoisomers when administered orally. The AUC values for the less potent adrenoceptor antagonist (SS) and for the alpha-blocking (SR) isomers were higher in diabetic than in non-diabetic pregnant women. Conclusions The approximately 100% higher AUC values obtained for the (SR) isomer in diabetic pregnant women treated with oral labetalol may be of clinical relevance in terms of the alpha-blocking activity of this isomer.

Influence of Plasma Protein Binding on Pharmacodynamics: Estimation of In Vivo Receptor Affinities of beta Blockers Using a New Mechanism-Based PK-PD Modelling Approach

The objective of this investigation was to examine in a systematic manner the influence of plasma protein binding on in vivo pharmacodynamics. Comparative pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic studies with four beta blockers were performed in conscious rats, using heart rate under isoprenaline-induced tachycardia as a pharmacodynamic endpoint. A recently proposed mechanism-based agonist-antagonist interaction model was used to obtain in vivo estimates of receptor affinities (K(B),(vivo)). These values were compared with in vitro affinities (K(B),(vitro)) on the basis of both total and free drug concentrations. For the total drug concentrations, the K(B),(vivo) estimates were 26, 13, 6.5 and 0.89 nM for S(-)-atenolol, S(-)-propranolol, S(-)-metoprolol and timolol. The K(B),(vivo) estimates on the basis of the free concentrations were 25, 2.0, 5.2 and 0.56 nM, respectively. The K(B),(vivo)-K(B),(vitro) correlation for total drug concentrations clearly deviated from the line of identity, especially for the most highly bound drug S(-)-propranolol (ratio K(B),(vivo)/K(B),(vitro) similar to 6.8). For the free drug, the correlation approximated the line of identity. Using this model, for beta-blockers the free plasma concentration appears to be the best predictor of in vivo pharmacodynamics. (C) 2008 Wiley-Liss, Inc. and the American Pharmacists Association J Pharm Sci 98:3816-3828, 2009

Real-time monitoring and kinetic parameter estimation of the affinity interaction of jArtinM and rArtinM with peroxidase glycoprotein by the electrogravimetric technique

ArtinM is a D-mannose binding lectin that has been arousing increasing interest because of its biomedical properties, especially those involving the stimulation of Th1 immune response, which confers protection against intracellular pathogens The potential pharmaceutical applications of ArtinM have motivated the production of its recombinant form (rArtinM) so that it is important to compare the sugar-binding properties of jArtinM and rArtinM in order to take better advantage of the potential applications of the recombinant lectin. In this work, a biosensor framework based on a Quartz Crystal Microbalance was established with the purpose of making a comparative study of the activity of native and recombinant ArtinM protein The QCM transducer was strategically functionalized to use a simple model of protein binding kinetics. This approach allowed for the determination of the binding/dissociation kinetics rate and affinity equilibrium constant of both forms of ArtinM with horseradish peroxidase glycoprotein (HRP), a N-glycosylated protein that contains the trimannoside Man alpha 1-3[Man alpha 1-6]Man, which is a known ligand for jArtinM (Jeyaprakash et al, 2004). Monitoring of the real-time binding of rArtinM shows that it was able to bind HRP, leading to an analytical curve similar to that of jArtinM, with statistically equivalent kinetic rates and affinity equilibrium constants for both forms of ArtinM The lower reactivity of rArtinM with HRP than jArtinM was considered to be due to a difference in the number of Carbohydrate Recognition Domains (CRDs) per molecule of each lectin form rather than to a difference in the energy of binding per CRD of each lectin form. (C) 2010 Elsevier B V. All rights reserved

Loss of Ergodicity in the Transition from Annealed to Quenched Disorder in a Finite Kinetic Ising Model

We consider a kinetic Ising model which represents a generic agent-based model for various types of socio-economic systems. We study the case of a finite (and not necessarily large) number of agents N as well as the asymptotic case when the number of agents tends to infinity. The main ingredient are individual decision thresholds which are either fixed over time (corresponding to quenched disorder in the Ising model, leading to nonlinear deterministic dynamics which are generically non-ergodic) or which may change randomly over time (corresponding to annealed disorder, leading to ergodic dynamics). We address the question how increasing the strength of annealed disorder relative to quenched disorder drives the system from non-ergodic behavior to ergodicity. Mathematically rigorous analysis provides an explicit and detailed picture for arbitrary realizations of the quenched initial thresholds, revealing an intriguing ""jumpy"" transition from non-ergodicity with many absorbing sets to ergodicity. For large N we find a critical strength of annealed randomness, above which the system becomes asymptotically ergodic. Our theoretical results suggests how to drive a system from an undesired socio-economic equilibrium (e. g. high level of corruption) to a desirable one (low level of corruption).

Modelling congenital transmission of Chagas` disease

The successful elimination of vectorial and transfusional transmission of Chagas` disease from some countries is a result of the reduction of domestic density of the primary vector Triatoma infestans, of almost 100% of coverage in blood serological selection and to the fact that the basic reproductive number of Chagas` disease is very close to one (1.25). Therefore, congenital transmission is currently the only way of acquiring Chagas` Disease in such regions. In this paper we propose a model of congenital transmission of Chagas` disease. Its aim is to provide an estimation of the time period it will take to eliminate this form of transmission in regions where vetorial transmission was reduced to close to zero, like in Brazil. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling the control strategies against dengue in Singapore

Notified cases of dengue infections in Singapore reached historical highs in 2004 (9459 cases) and 2005 (13 817 cases) and the reason for such all increase is still to be established. We apply a mathematical model for dengue infection that takes into account the seasonal variation in incidence, characteristic of dengue fever, and which mimics the 2004-2005 epidemics in Singapore. We simulated a set of possible control strategies and confirmed the intuitive belief that killing adult mosquitoes is the most effective strategy to control an ongoing epidemic. On the other hand, the control of immature forms was very efficient ill preventing the resurgence of dengue epidemics. Since the control of immature forms allows the reduction of adulticide, it seems that the best strategy is to combine both adulticide and larvicide control measures during an outbreak, followed by the maintenance of larvicide methods after the epidemic has subsided. In addition, the model showed that the mixed strategy of adulticide and larvicide methods introduced by the government seems to be very effective in reducing the number of cases in the first weeks after the start of control.

Idiopathic Toe Walking A Kinematic and Kinetic Profile

Purpose: The differential diagnosis in children who walk on their toes includes mild spastic diplegia and idiopathic toe walking (ITW). A diagnosis of ITW is often one of exclusion. To better characterize the diagnosis of ITW, quantitative gait analysis was utilized in a series of patients with an established diagnosis of ITW. Study Design: Patients with an established diagnosis of ITW were analyzed by quantitative gait analysis. Data were recorded as each subject walked in a self-selected toe-walking pattern. The subject was then asked to ambulate making every effort to walk in a normal heel-toe reciprocating fashion. Data were collected to determine if this group of idiopathic toe walkers was able to normalize their gait. Data sets were compared with each other and with historical normal controls. Results: Fifty-one neurologically normal children ( 102 extremities) with ITW were studied in the Motion Analysis Laboratory at a mean age of 9.3 years. In the self-selected trials, significant deviations in both kinematics and kinetics at the level of the ankle were identified. Disruption of all 3 ankle rockers and a plantar flexion bias of the ankle throughout the gait cycle were most commonly seen. When asked to attempt a normal heel-toe gait, 17% of the children were able to normalize both stance and swing variables. In addition, 70% were able to normalize some but not all of the stance and swing variables. Conclusion: Quantitative gait analysis is an effective tool for differentiating mild cerebral palsy from ITW. Kinematic and kinetic distinctions between the diagnoses are evident at the knee and ankle. The ability to normalize on demand at least some of the kinematic and kinetic variables associated with toe walking is seen in most children with ITW.

Reliability of electromyographic amplitude values of the upper limb muscles during closed kinetic chain exercises with stable and unstable surfaces

The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the intra and interday reliability of surface electromyographic amplitude values of the scapular girdle muscles and upper limbs during 3 isometric closed kinetic chain exercises, involving upper limbs with the fixed distal segment extremity on stable base of support and on a Swiss ball (relatively unstable). Twenty healthy adults performed the exercises push-up, bench-press and wall-press with different effort levels (80% and 100% maximal load). Subjects performed three maximal voluntary contractions (MVC) in muscular testing position of each muscle to obtain a reference value for root mean square (RMS) normalization. Individuals were instructed to randomly perform three isometric contraction series, in which each exercise lasted 6 s with a 2-min resting-period between series and exercises. Intra and interday reliabilities were calculated through the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC 2.1), standard error of the measurement (SEM). Results indicated an excellent intraday reliability of electromyographic amplitude values (ICC >= 0.75). The interday reliability of normalized RMS values ranged between good and excellent (ICC 0.52-0.98). Finally, it is suggested that the reliability of normalized electromyographic amplitude values of the analyzed muscles present better values during exercises on a stable surface. However, load levels used during the exercises do not seem to have any influence on variability levels, possibly because the loads were quite similar. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.