123 resultados para Failure Probability


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The dynamic behavior of composite laminates is very complex because there are many concurrent phenomena during composite laminate failure under impact load. Fiber breakage, delaminations, matrix cracking, plastic deformations due to contact and large displacements are some effects which should be considered when a structure made from composite material is impacted by a foreign object. Thus, an investigation of the low velocity impact on laminated composite thin disks of epoxy resin reinforced by carbon fiber is presented. The influence of stacking sequence and energy impact was investigated using load-time histories, displacement-time histories and energy-time histories as well as images from NDE. Indentation tests results were compared to dynamic results, verifying the inertia effects when thin composite laminate was impacted by foreign object with low velocity. Finite element analysis (FEA) was developed, using Hill`s model and material models implemented by UMAT (User Material Subroutine) into software ABAQUS (TM), in order to simulate the failure mechanisms under indentation tests. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Fatigue and crack propagation are phenomena affected by high uncertainties, where deterministic methods fail to predict accurately the structural life. The present work aims at coupling reliability analysis with boundary element method. The latter has been recognized as an accurate and efficient numerical technique to deal with mixed mode propagation, which is very interesting for reliability analysis. The coupled procedure allows us to consider uncertainties during the crack growth process. In addition, it computes the probability of fatigue failure for complex structural geometry and loading. Two coupling procedures are considered: direct coupling of reliability and mechanical solvers and indirect coupling by the response surface method. Numerical applications show the performance of the proposed models in lifetime assessment under uncertainties, where the direct method has shown faster convergence than response surface method. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Due to manufacturing or damage process, brittle materials present a large number of micro-cracks which are randomly distributed. The lifetime of these materials is governed by crack propagation under the applied mechanical and thermal loadings. In order to deal with these kinds of materials, the present work develops a boundary element method (BEM) model allowing for the analysis of multiple random crack propagation in plane structures. The adopted formulation is based on the dual BEM, for which singular and hyper-singular integral equations are used. An iterative scheme to predict the crack growth path and crack length increment is proposed. This scheme enables us to simulate the localization and coalescence phenomena, which are the main contribution of this paper. Considering the fracture mechanics approach, the displacement correlation technique is applied to evaluate the stress intensity factors. The propagation angle and the equivalent stress intensity factor are calculated using the theory of maximum circumferential stress. Examples of multi-fractured domains, loaded up to rupture, are considered to illustrate the applicability of the proposed method. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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This paper addresses the time-variant reliability analysis of structures with random resistance or random system parameters. It deals with the problem of a random load process crossing a random barrier level. The implications of approximating the arrival rate of the first overload by an ensemble-crossing rate are studied. The error involved in this so-called ""ensemble-crossing rate"" approximation is described in terms of load process and barrier distribution parameters, and in terms of the number of load cycles. Existing results are reviewed, and significant improvements involving load process bandwidth, mean-crossing frequency and time are presented. The paper shows that the ensemble-crossing rate approximation can be accurate enough for problems where load process variance is large in comparison to barrier variance, but especially when the number of load cycles is small. This includes important practical applications like random vibration due to impact loadings and earthquake loading. Two application examples are presented, one involving earthquake loading and one involving a frame structure subject to wind and snow loadings. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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An experimental testing program was undertaken to investigate failure mechanisms induced by the active movement of a deep rectangular trapdoor underlying a granular soil. Reduced-scale models were tested under normal gravity as well as under an increased gravitational field using a centrifuge facility. Some models were used to evaluate the performance of both flexible and rigid pipes undergoing a localized loss of support. Failure mechanisms in the longitudinal direction of the models were characterized by a single, well-defined failure surface that developed within the limits of the trapdoor. However, failure mechanisms in the transverse direction of the models were characterized by multiple failure surfaces extending outside the limits of the trapdoor. Significant dilation of the soil located immediately above the trapdoor was identified in the failure of the models. The pattern of the failure mechanisms was found to be affected by the stress level and backfill density. Higher stress levels were found to lead to well-developed failure zones. The influence of backfill density was found to be more relevant in models involving flexible pipes. Pipes embedded within loose backfill were severely damaged after loss of support, while pipes embedded in dense backfill experienced negligible deformations. These results indicate that damage to pipelines caused by ground loss of support can be significantly minimized by controlling the compaction of the fill.

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The most-used refrigeration system is the vapor-compression system. In this cycle, the compressor is the most complex and expensive component, especially the reciprocating semihermetic type, which is often used in food product conservation. This component is very sensitive to variations in its operating conditions. If these conditions reach unacceptable levels, failures are practically inevitable. Therefore, maintenance actions should be taken in order to maintain good performance of such compressors and to avoid undesirable stops of the system. To achieve such a goal, one has to evaluate the reliability of the system and/or the components. In this case, reliability means the probability that some equipment cannot perform their requested functions for an established time period, under defined operating conditions. One of the tools used to improve component reliability is the failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA). This paper proposes that the methodology of FMEA be used as a tool to evaluate the main failures found in semihermetic reciprocating compressors used in refrigeration systems. Based on the results, some suggestions for maintenance are addressed.

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The dynamic plastic response of a simply supported circular plate is analysed. Emphasis is given to the plate behaviour after it has broken free from the supports due to a local material failure. The theoretical rigid plastic analysis predicts various features of the response such as the time to failure, residual kinetic energy and the critical velocity at failure. The residual kinetic energy of the plate could be significant enough to cause secondary impact damage. It is shown that the shape of the plate changes after breaking free from the supports, which is important for forensic investigations. The solution for various cases were proven to be exact in the context of the upper and lower bounds theorems of the theory of plasticity. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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The premature failure of a large agglomeration machine used for the annual production of 360,000 m(3) of eucalypt fiber panels was investigated to identify the nucleation and growth mechanisms of cracking in PH stainless steel belts (126 m x 2.9 m x 3.0 mm). These belts are used to compress a cushion composed of eucalyptus fibers and glue, being the pressure transmitted from the pistons by the action of numerous case-hardening steel rolls. Examination of the belt working interfaces (belt/rolls and belt/eucalypt fibers) indicated that the main cracking was nucleated on the belt/roll interface and that there is a clear relationship between the crack nucleation and the presence of superficial irregularities, which were observed on the belt/roll working surface. Used rolls showed the presence of perimetric wear marks and 2 mu m silicon-rich encrusted particles (identified as silicon carbide). Lubricant residues contained the presence of helicoidal wires, which were originated by the release of the stainless steel cleaning brush bristles, and 15 mu m diameter metallic particles, which were generated by material detachment of the belt. The presence of foreign particles on the tribological interface contributed to an increase of the shear stresses at the surfaces and, consequently, the number of the contact fatigue crack nucleation sites in the belt/roll tribo-interface. The cracking was originated on the belt/roll interface of the stainless steel belt by a mixed rolling/slip contact fatigue mechanism, which promoted spalling and further nucleation and growth of conventional fatigue cracks. Finally, the system lubrication efficiency and the cleaning procedure should be optimised in order to increase the life expectancy of the belt. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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The performance optimisation of overhead conductors depends on the systematic investigation of the fretting fatigue mechanisms in the conductor/clamping system. As a consequence, a fretting fatigue rig was designed and a limited range of fatigue tests was carried out at the middle high cycle fatigue regime in order to access an exploratory S-N curve for a Grosbeak conductor, which was mounted on a mono-articulated aluminium clamping system. Subsequent to these preliminary fatigue tests, the components of the conductor/clamping system, such as ACSR conductor, upper and lower clamps, bolt and nuts, were subjected to a failure analysis procedure in order to investigate the metallurgical free variables interfering on the fatigue test results, aiming at the optimisation of the testing reproducibility. The results indicated that the rupture of the planar fracture surfaces observed in the external At strands of the conductor tested under lower bending amplitude (0.9 mm) occurred by fatigue cracking (I mm deep), followed by shear overload. The V-type fracture surfaces observed in some At strands of the conductor tested under higher bending amplitude (1.3 mm) were also produced by fatigue cracking (approximately 400 mu m deep), followed by shear overload. Shear overload fracture (45 degrees fracture surface) was also observed on the remaining At wires of the conductor tested under higher bending amplitude (1.3 mm). Additionally, the upper and lower Al-cast clamps presented microstructure-sensitive cracking, which was folowed by particle detachment and formation of abrasive debris on the clamp/conductor tribo-interface, promoting even further the fretting mechanism. The detrimental formation of abrasive debris might be inhibited by the selection of a more suitable class of as-cast At alloy for the production of clamps. Finally, the bolt/nut system showed intense degradation of the carbon steel nut (fabricated in ferritic-pearlitic carbon steel, featuring machined threads with 190 HV), with intense plastic deformation and loss of material. Proper selection of both the bolt and nut materials and the finishing processing might prevent the loss in the clamping pressure during the fretting testing. It is important to control the specification of these components (clamps, bolt and nuts) prior to the start of large scale fretting fatigue testing of the overhead conductors in order to increase the reproducibility of this assessment. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Conventional procedures used to assess the integrity of corroded piping systems with axial defects generally employ simplified failure criteria based upon a plastic collapse failure mechanism incorporating the tensile properties of the pipe material. These methods establish acceptance criteria for defects based on limited experimental data for low strength structural steels which do not necessarily address specific requirements for the high grade steels currently used. For these cases, failure assessments may be overly conservative or provide significant scatter in their predictions, which lead to unnecessary repair or replacement of in-service pipelines. Motivated by these observations, this study examines the applicability of a stress-based criterion based upon plastic instability analysis to predict the failure pressure of corroded pipelines with axial defects. A central focus is to gain additional insight into effects of defect geometry and material properties on the attainment of a local limit load to support the development of stress-based burst strength criteria. The work provides an extensive body of results which lend further support to adopt failure criteria for corroded pipelines based upon ligament instability analyses. A verification study conducted on burst testing of large-diameter pipe specimens with different defect length shows the effectiveness of a stress-based criterion using local ligament instability in burst pressure predictions, even though the adopted burst criterion exhibits a potential dependence on defect geometry and possibly on material`s strain hardening capacity. Overall, the results presented here suggests that use of stress-based criteria based upon plastic instability analysis of the defect ligament is a valid engineering tool for integrity assessments of pipelines with axial corroded defects. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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The purpose of this article is to present a quantitative analysis of the human failure contribution in the collision and/or grounding of oil tankers, considering the recommendation of the ""Guidelines for Formal Safety Assessment"" of the International Maritime Organization. Initially, the employed methodology is presented, emphasizing the use of the technique for human error prediction to reach the desired objective. Later, this methodology is applied to a ship operating on the Brazilian coast and, thereafter, the procedure to isolate the human actions with the greatest potential to reduce the risk of an accident is described. Finally, the management and organizational factors presented in the ""International Safety Management Code"" are associated with these selected actions. Therefore, an operator will be able to decide where to work in order to obtain an effective reduction in the probability of accidents. Even though this study does not present a new methodology, it can be considered as a reference in the human reliability analysis for the maritime industry, which, in spite of having some guides for risk analysis, has few studies related to human reliability effectively applied to the sector.

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In this paper we proposed a new two-parameters lifetime distribution with increasing failure rate. The new distribution arises on a latent complementary risk problem base. The properties of the proposed distribution are discussed, including a formal proof of its probability density function and explicit algebraic formulae for its reliability and failure rate functions, quantiles and moments, including the mean and variance. A simple EM-type algorithm for iteratively computing maximum likelihood estimates is presented. The Fisher information matrix is derived analytically in order to obtaining the asymptotic covariance matrix. The methodology is illustrated on a real data set. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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This work investigates the effects of photodegradation on the environmental stress cracking resistance of polycarbonate (PC). Injection molded samples were exposed to the ultraviolet (UV) light for various times in the laboratory prior to solvent contact. The bars were then stressed with two different loads in a tensile testing machine under the presence of ethanol. During this period, the stress relaxation was monitored and, after unloading, the ultimate properties were evaluated. Complementary tests were done by size exclusion chromatography, UV-visible spectroscopy, scanning electron microscopy, and light microscopy. The results indicated that ethanol causes significant modification in PC, with extensive surface crazing as well as reduction in mechanical properties. The previous degraded samples showed a higher level of stress relaxation and a greater loss in tensile strength in comparison with the undegraded ones. The synergist action of photodegradation and stress cracking in PC may be a consequence of the chemical changes caused by oxidation.

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The inverse Weibull distribution has the ability to model failure rates which are quite common in reliability and biological studies. A three-parameter generalized inverse Weibull distribution with decreasing and unimodal failure rate is introduced and studied. We provide a comprehensive treatment of the mathematical properties of the new distribution including expressions for the moment generating function and the rth generalized moment. The mixture model of two generalized inverse Weibull distributions is investigated. The identifiability property of the mixture model is demonstrated. For the first time, we propose a location-scale regression model based on the log-generalized inverse Weibull distribution for modeling lifetime data. In addition, we develop some diagnostic tools for sensitivity analysis. Two applications of real data are given to illustrate the potentiality of the proposed regression model.

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For the first time, we introduce and study some mathematical properties of the Kumaraswamy Weibull distribution that is a quite flexible model in analyzing positive data. It contains as special sub-models the exponentiated Weibull, exponentiated Rayleigh, exponentiated exponential, Weibull and also the new Kumaraswamy exponential distribution. We provide explicit expressions for the moments and moment generating function. We examine the asymptotic distributions of the extreme values. Explicit expressions are derived for the mean deviations, Bonferroni and Lorenz curves, reliability and Renyi entropy. The moments of the order statistics are calculated. We also discuss the estimation of the parameters by maximum likelihood. We obtain the expected information matrix. We provide applications involving two real data sets on failure times. Finally, some multivariate generalizations of the Kumaraswamy Weibull distribution are discussed. (C) 2010 The Franklin Institute. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.