206 resultados para Extinction Probability


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The objective of this manuscript is to discuss the existing barriers for the dissemination of medical guidelines, and to present strategies that facilitate the adaptation of the recommendations into clinical practice. The literature shows that it usually takes several years until new scientific evidence is adopted in current practice, even when there is obvious impact in patients' morbidity and mortality. There are some examples where more than thirty years have elapsed since the first case reports about the use of a effective therapy were published until its utilization became routine. That is the case of fibrinolysis for the treatment of acute myocardial infarction. Some of the main barriers for the implementation of new recommendations are: the lack of knowledge of a new guideline, personal resistance to changes, uncertainty about the efficacy of the proposed recommendation, fear of potential side-effects, difficulties in remembering the recommendations, inexistence of institutional policies reinforcing the recommendation and even economical restrains. In order to overcome these barriers a strategy that involves a program with multiple tools is always the best. That must include the implementation of easy-to-use algorithms, continuous medical education materials and lectures, electronic or paper alerts, tools to facilitate evaluation and prescription, and periodic audits to show results to the practitioners involved in the process. It is also fundamental that the medical societies involved with the specific medical issue support the program for its scientific and ethical soundness. The creation of multidisciplinary committees in each institution and the inclusion of opinion leaders that have pro-active and lasting attitudes are the key-points for the program's success. In this manuscript we use as an example the implementation of a guideline for venous thromboembolism prophylaxis, but the concepts described here can be easily applied to any other guideline. Therefore, these concepts could be very useful for institutions and services that aim at quality improvement of patient care. Changes in current medical practice recommended by guidelines may take some time. However, if there is a broader participation of opinion leaders and the use of several tools listed here, they surely have a greater probability of reaching the main objectives: improvement in provided medical care and patient safety.

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Background: The present work aims at the application of the decision theory to radiological image quality control ( QC) in diagnostic routine. The main problem addressed in the framework of decision theory is to accept or reject a film lot of a radiology service. The probability of each decision of a determined set of variables was obtained from the selected films. Methods: Based on a radiology service routine a decision probability function was determined for each considered group of combination characteristics. These characteristics were related to the film quality control. These parameters were also framed in a set of 8 possibilities, resulting in 256 possible decision rules. In order to determine a general utility application function to access the decision risk, we have used a simple unique parameter called r. The payoffs chosen were: diagnostic's result (correct/incorrect), cost (high/low), and patient satisfaction (yes/no) resulting in eight possible combinations. Results: Depending on the value of r, more or less risk will occur related to the decision-making. The utility function was evaluated in order to determine the probability of a decision. The decision was made with patients or administrators' opinions from a radiology service center. Conclusion: The model is a formal quantitative approach to make a decision related to the medical imaging quality, providing an instrument to discriminate what is really necessary to accept or reject a film or a film lot. The method presented herein can help to access the risk level of an incorrect radiological diagnosis decision.

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Background: In a number of malaria endemic regions, tourists and travellers face a declining risk of travel associated malaria, in part due to successful malaria control. Many millions of visitors to these regions are recommended, via national and international policy, to use chemoprophylaxis which has a well recognized morbidity profile. To evaluate whether current malaria chemo-prophylactic policy for travellers is cost effective when adjusted for endemic transmission risk and duration of exposure. a framework, based on partial cost-benefit analysis was used Methods: Using a three component model combining a probability component, a cost component and a malaria risk component, the study estimated health costs avoided through use of chemoprophylaxis and costs of disease prevention (including adverse events and pre-travel advice for visits to five popular high and low malaria endemic regions) and malaria transmission risk using imported malaria cases and numbers of travellers to malarious countries. By calculating the minimal threshold malaria risk below which the economic costs of chemoprophylaxis are greater than the avoided health costs we were able to identify the point at which chemoprophylaxis would be economically rational. Results: The threshold incidence at which malaria chemoprophylaxis policy becomes cost effective for UK travellers is an accumulated risk of 1.13% assuming a given set of cost parameters. The period a travellers need to remain exposed to achieve this accumulated risk varied from 30 to more than 365 days, depending on the regions intensity of malaria transmission. Conclusions: The cost-benefit analysis identified that chemoprophylaxis use was not a cost-effective policy for travellers to Thailand or the Amazon region of Brazil, but was cost-effective for travel to West Africa and for those staying longer than 45 days in India and Indonesia.

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Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium (HWE) is an important genetic property that populations should have whenever they are not observing adverse situations as complete lack of panmixia, excess of mutations, excess of selection pressure, etc. HWE for decades has been evaluated; both frequentist and Bayesian methods are in use today. While historically the HWE formula was developed to examine the transmission of alleles in a population from one generation to the next, use of HWE concepts has expanded in human diseases studies to detect genotyping error and disease susceptibility (association); Ryckman and Williams (2008). Most analyses focus on trying to answer the question of whether a population is in HWE. They do not try to quantify how far from the equilibrium the population is. In this paper, we propose the use of a simple disequilibrium coefficient to a locus with two alleles. Based on the posterior density of this disequilibrium coefficient, we show how one can conduct a Bayesian analysis to verify how far from HWE a population is. There are other coefficients introduced in the literature and the advantage of the one introduced in this paper is the fact that, just like the standard correlation coefficients, its range is bounded and it is symmetric around zero (equilibrium) when comparing the positive and the negative values. To test the hypothesis of equilibrium, we use a simple Bayesian significance test, the Full Bayesian Significance Test (FBST); see Pereira, Stern andWechsler (2008) for a complete review. The disequilibrium coefficient proposed provides an easy and efficient way to make the analyses, especially if one uses Bayesian statistics. A routine in R programs (R Development Core Team, 2009) that implements the calculations is provided for the readers.

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The identification of genetic markers associated with chronic kidney disease (CKD) may help to predict its development. Because reduced nitric oxide (NO) bioavailability and endothelial dysfunction are involved in CKD, genetic polymorphisms in the gene encoding the enzyme involved in NO synthesis (endothelial NO synthase [eNos]) may affect the susceptibility to CKD and the development of end-stage renal disease (ESRD). We compared genotype and haplotype distributions of three relevant eNOS polymorphisms (T(-786) C in the promoter region, Glu298Asp in exon 7, and 4b/4a in intron 4) in 110 healthy control subjects and 127 ESRD patients. Genotypes for the T(-786) C and Glu298Asp polymorphisms were determined by TaqMan (R) Allele Discrimination assay and real-time polymerase chain reaction. Genotypes for the intron 4 polymorphism were determined by polymerase chain reaction and fragment separation by electrophoresis. The software program PHASE 2.1 was used to estimate the haplotypes frequencies. We considered significant a probability value of p < 0.05/number of haplotypes (p < 0.05/8 = 0.0063). We found no significant differences between groups with respect to age, ethnicity, and gender. CKD patients had higher blood pressure, total cholesterol, and creatinine levels than healthy control subjects (all p < 0.05). Genotype and allele distributions for the three eNOS polymorphisms were similar in both groups (p > 0.05). We found no significant differences in haplotype distribution between groups (p > 0.05). The lack of significant associations between eNOS polymorphisms and ESRD suggests that eNOS polymorphisms may not be relevant to the genetic component of CKD that leads to ESRD.

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The purpose of the present research was to investigate the effects of polymorphisms of luteinizing hormone receptor (LHR) and follicle-stimulating hormone receptor (FSHR) genes, evaluated by polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism in European-Zebu composite beef heifers from six different breed compositions. The polymorphism site analysis from digestion with HhaI and AluI restriction endonucleases allowed the genotype identification for LHR (TT, CT and CC) and FSHR (GG, CG and CC) genes. A high frequency of heterozygous animals was recorded in all breed compositions for both genes, except in two compositions for LHR. The probability of pregnancy (PP) at first breeding was used to evaluate the polymorphism effect on sexual precocity. The PP was analyzed as a binary trait, with a value of 1 (success) assigned to heifers that were diagnosed pregnant by rectal palpation and a value of 0 (failure) assigned to those that were not pregnant at that time. Heterozygous heifers showed a higher pregnancy rate (67 and 66% for LHR and FSHR genes, respectively), but no significant effects were observed for the genes studied (P=0.9188 and 0.8831 for LHR and FSHR, respectively) on the PP. These results do not justify the inclusion of LHR and FSHR restriction fragment length polymorphism markers in selection programs for sexual precocity in beef heifers. Nevertheless, these markers make possible the genotype characterization and may be used in additional studies to evaluate the genetic structure in other bovine populations.

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We present K-band spectra of newly born OB stars in the obscured Galactic giant H II region W51A and approximate to 0.8 '' angular resolution images in the J, H, and K(S)-bands. Four objects have been spectroscopically classified as O-type stars. The mean spectroscopic parallax of the four stars gives a distance of 2.0 +/- 0.3 kpc (error in the mean), significantly smaller than the radio recombination line kinematic value of 5.5 kpc or the values derived from maser proper motion observations (6-8 kpc). The number of Lyman continuum photons from the contribution of all massive stars (NLyc approximate to 1.5 x 10(50) s(-1)) is in good agreement with that inferred from radio recombination lines (NLyc = 1.3 x 10(50) s(-1)) after accounting for the smaller distance derived here. We present analysis of archival high angular resolution images (NAOS CONICA at VLT and T-ReCS at Gemini) of the compact region W51 IRS 2. The K(S)-band images resolve the infrared source IRS 2 indicating that it is a very young compact H II region. Sources IRS 2E was resolved into compact cluster (within 660 AU of projected distance) of three objects, but one of them is just bright extended emission. W51d1 and W51d2 were identified with compact clusters of three objects (maybe four in the case of W51d1) each one. Although IRS 2E is the brightest source in the K-band and at 12.6 mu m, it is not clearly associated with a radio continuum source. Our spectrum of IRS 2E shows, similar to previous work, strong emission in Br gamma and He I, as well as three forbidden emission lines of Fe III and emission lines of molecular hydrogen (H(2)) marking it as a massive young stellar object.

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Context. Observations in the cosmological domain are heavily dependent on the validity of the cosmic distance-duality (DD) relation, eta = D(L)(z)(1+ z)(2)/D(A)(z) = 1, an exact result required by the Etherington reciprocity theorem where D(L)(z) and D(A)(z) are, respectively, the luminosity and angular diameter distances. In the limit of very small redshifts D(A)(z) = D(L)(z) and this ratio is trivially satisfied. Measurements of Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect (SZE) and X-rays combined with the DD relation have been used to determine D(A)(z) from galaxy clusters. This combination offers the possibility of testing the validity of the DD relation, as well as determining which physical processes occur in galaxy clusters via their shapes. Aims. We use WMAP (7 years) results by fixing the conventional Lambda CDM model to verify the consistence between the validity of DD relation and different assumptions about galaxy cluster geometries usually adopted in the literature. Methods. We assume that. is a function of the redshift parametrized by two different relations: eta(z) = 1+eta(0)z, and eta(z) = 1+eta(0)z/(1+z), where eta(0) is a constant parameter quantifying the possible departure from the strict validity of the DD relation. In order to determine the probability density function (PDF) of eta(0), we consider the angular diameter distances from galaxy clusters recently studied by two different groups by assuming elliptical (isothermal) and spherical (non-isothermal) beta models. The strict validity of the DD relation will occur only if the maximum value of eta(0) PDF is centered on eta(0) = 0. Results. It was found that the elliptical beta model is in good agreement with the data, showing no violation of the DD relation (PDF peaked close to eta(0) = 0 at 1 sigma), while the spherical (non-isothermal) one is only marginally compatible at 3 sigma. Conclusions. The present results derived by combining the SZE and X-ray surface brightness data from galaxy clusters with the latest WMAP results (7-years) favors the elliptical geometry for galaxy clusters. It is remarkable that a local property like the geometry of galaxy clusters might be constrained by a global argument provided by the cosmic DD relation.

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Context. It is not known how many globular clusters may remain undetected towards the Galactic bulge. Aims. One of the aims of the VISTA Variables in the Via Lactea (VVV) Survey is to accurately measure the physical parameters of the known globular clusters in the inner regions of the Milky Way and search for new ones, hidden in regions of large extinction. Methods. From deep near-infrared images, we derive deep JHK(S)-band photometry of a region surrounding the known globular cluster UKS 1 and reveal a new low-mass globular cluster candidate that we name VVV CL001. Results. We use the horizontal-branch red clump to measure E(B-V) similar to 2.2 mag, (m - M)(0) = 16.01 mag, and D = 15.9 kpc for the globular cluster UKS 1. On the basis of near-infrared colour-magnitude diagrams, we also find that VVV CL001 has E(B-V) similar to 2.0, and that it is at least as metal-poor as UKS 1, although its distance remains uncertain. Conclusions. Our finding confirms the previous projection that the central region of the Milky Way harbours more globular clusters. VVV CL001 and UKS 1 are good candidates for a physical cluster binary, but follow-up observations are needed to decide if they are located at the same distance and have similar radial velocities.

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Spectrophotometric distances in the K band have been reported by different authors for a number of obscured Galactic H II regions. Almost 50% of them show large discrepancies compared to the classical method using radial velocities measured in the radio spectral region. In order to provide a crucial test of both methods, we selected a target that does not present particular difficulty for any method and which has been measured by as many techniques as possible. The W3 star-forming complex, located in the Perseus arm, offers a splendid opportunity for such a task. We used the Near-Infrared Integral Field Spectrograph on the Frederick C. Gillett Gemini North telescope to classify candidate ""naked photosphere"" OB stars based on Two Micron All Sky Survey photometry. Two of the targets are revealed to be mid-O-type main-sequence stars leading to a distance of d = 2.20 kpc. This is in excellent agreement with the spectrophotometric distance derived in the optical band (d = 2.18 pc) and with a measurement of the W3 trigonometric parallax (d = 1.95 kpc). Such results confirm that the spectrophotometric distances in the K band are reliable. The radio-derived kinematic distance, on the contrary, gives a distance twice as large (d = 4.2 kpc). This indicates that this region of the Perseus arm does not follow the Galactic rotation curve, and this may also be the case for other H II regions for which discrepancies have been found.

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Aims. We derive lists of proper-motions and kinematic membership probabilities for 49 open clusters and possible open clusters in the zone of the Bordeaux PM2000 proper motion catalogue (+ 11 degrees <= delta <= + 18 degrees). We test different parametrisations of the proper motion and position distribution functions and select the most successful one. In the light of those results, we analyse some objects individually. Methods. We differenciate between cluster and field member stars, and assign membership probabilities, by applying a new and fully automated method based on both parametrisations of the proper motion and position distribution functions, and genetic algorithm optimization heuristics associated with a derivative-based hill climbing algorithm for the likelihood optimization. Results. We present a catalogue comprising kinematic parameters and associated membership probability lists for 49 open clusters and possible open clusters in the Bordeaux PM2000 catalogue region. We note that this is the first determination of proper motions for five open clusters. We confirm the non-existence of two kinematic populations in the region of 15 previously suspected non-existent objects.

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Context. It is debated whether the Milky Way bulge has characteristics more similar to those of a classical bulge than those of a pseudobulge. Detailed abundance studies of bulge stars are important when investigating the origin, history, and classification of the bulge. These studies provide constraints on the star-formation history, initial mass function, and differences between stellar populations. Not many similar studies have been completed because of the large distance and high variable visual extinction along the line-of-sight towards the bulge. Therefore, near-IR investigations can provide superior results. Aims. To investigate the origin of the bulge and study its chemical abundances determined from near-IR spectra for bulge giants that have already been investigated with optical spectra. The optical spectra also provide the stellar parameters that are very important to the present study. In particular, the important CNO elements are determined more accurately in the near-IR. Oxygen and other alpha elements are important for investigating the star-formation history. The C and N abundances are important for determining the evolutionary stage of the giants and the origin of C in the bulge. Methods. High-resolution, near-infrared spectra in the H band were recorded using the CRIRES spectrometer mounted on the Very Large Telescope. The CNO abundances are determined from the numerous molecular lines in the wavelength range observed. Abundances of the alpha elements Si, S, and Ti are also determined from the near-IR spectra. Results. The abundance ratios [O/Fe], [Si/Fe], and [S/Fe] are enhanced to metallicities of at least [Fe/H] = -0.3, after which they decline. This suggests that the Milky Way bulge experienced a rapid and early burst of star formation similar to that of a classical bulge. However, a similarity between the bulge trend and the trend of the local thick disk seems to be present. This similarity suggests that the bulge could have had a pseudobulge origin. The C and N abundances suggest that our giants are first-ascent red-giants or clump stars, and that the measured oxygen abundances are those with which the stars were born. Our [C/Fe] trend does not show any increase with [Fe/H], which is expected if W-R stars contributed substantially to the C abundances. No ""cosmic scatter"" can be traced around our observed abundance trends: the measured scatter is expected, given the observational uncertainties.

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Aims. In this work, we describe the pipeline for the fast supervised classification of light curves observed by the CoRoT exoplanet CCDs. We present the classification results obtained for the first four measured fields, which represent a one-year in-orbit operation. Methods. The basis of the adopted supervised classification methodology has been described in detail in a previous paper, as is its application to the OGLE database. Here, we present the modifications of the algorithms and of the training set to optimize the performance when applied to the CoRoT data. Results. Classification results are presented for the observed fields IRa01, SRc01, LRc01, and LRa01 of the CoRoT mission. Statistics on the number of variables and the number of objects per class are given and typical light curves of high-probability candidates are shown. We also report on new stellar variability types discovered in the CoRoT data. The full classification results are publicly available.

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We analyze the interaction between dark energy and dark matter from a thermodynamical perspective. By assuming they have different temperatures, we study the possibility of occurring a decay from dark matter into dark energy, characterized by a negative parameter Q. We find that, if at least one of the fluids has nonvanishing chemical potential, for instance mu(x)< 0 and mu(dm)=0 or mu(x)=0 and mu(dm)> 0, the decay is possible, where mu(x) and mu(dm) are the chemical potentials of dark energy and dark matter, respectively. Using recent cosmological data, we find that, for a fairly simple interaction, the dark matter decay is favored with a probability of similar to 93% over the dark energy decay. This result comes from a likelihood analysis where only background evolution has been considered.

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Mutualistic networks are crucial to the maintenance of ecosystem services. Unfortunately, what we know about seed dispersal networks is based only on bird-fruit interactions. Therefore, we aimed at filling part of this gap by investigating bat-fruit networks. It is known from population studies that: (i) some bat species depend more on fruits than others, and (ii) that some specialized frugivorous bats prefer particular plant genera. We tested whether those preferences affected the structure and robustness of the whole network and the functional roles of species. Nine bat-fruit datasets from the literature were analyzed and all networks showed lower complementary specialization (H(2)' = 0.3760.10, mean 6 SD) and similar nestedness (NODF = 0.5660.12) than pollination networks. All networks were modular (M=0.32 +/- 0.07), and had on average four cohesive subgroups (modules) of tightly connected bats and plants. The composition of those modules followed the genus-genus associations observed at population level (Artibeus-Ficus, Carollia-Piper, and Sturnira-Solanum), although a few of those plant genera were dispersed also by other bats. Bat-fruit networks showed high robustness to simulated cumulative removals of both bats (R = 0.55 +/- 0.10) and plants (R = 0.68 +/- 0.09). Primary frugivores interacted with a larger proportion of the plants available and also occupied more central positions; furthermore, their extinction caused larger changes in network structure. We conclude that bat-fruit networks are highly cohesive and robust mutualistic systems, in which redundancy is high within modules, although modules are complementary to each other. Dietary specialization seems to be an important structuring factor that affects the topology, the guild structure and functional roles in bat-fruit networks.