Um modelo estocástico combinado de previsão sazonal para a precipitação no Brasil

Este artigo discute um modelo de previsão combinada para a realização de prognósticos climáticos na escala sazonal. Nele, previsões pontuais de modelos estocásticos são agregadas para obter as melhores projeções no tempo. Utilizam-se modelos estocásticos autoregressivos integrados a médias móveis, de suavização exponencial e previsões por análise de correlações canônicas. O controle de qualidade das previsões é feito através da análise dos resíduos e da avaliação do percentual de redução da variância não-explicada da modelagem combinada em relação às previsões dos modelos individuais. Exemplos da aplicação desses conceitos em modelos desenvolvidos no Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) mostram bons resultados e ilustram que as previsões do modelo combinado, superam na maior parte dos casos a de cada modelo componente, quando comparadas aos dados observados.

Magnetização remanescente: um parâmetro crucial para a interpretação e modelamento de anomalias magnéticas em território brasileiro

A questão da magnetização remanescente na interpretação de anomalias magnéticas é frequentemente negligenciada, principalmente em função da dificuldade em se lidar com a mesma. Na maioria dos casos, tanto nos trabalhos acadêmicos quanto nos modelos que circulam nos meios profissionais da exploração mineral e de petróleo, assume-se que a magnetização remanescente é desprezível e utiliza-se apenas a induzida. O presente artigo mostra que o uso desse parâmetro é particularmente importante no tocante às anomalias magnéticas brasileiras, e procura fornecer subsídios para o uso desta informação. Discute-se o uso de duas técnicas consagradas, a Redução ao Pólo e o Sinal Analítico, em anomalias brasileiras com e sem magnetização remanescente. Mostramos a aplicação da técnica de determinação da magnetização total, permitindo que os modelos sejam construídos a partir da resultante da soma das magnetizações induzida e remanescente, e posteriormente apresentamos uma metodologia de uso da informação remanescente na datação das rochas fonte.

Diversidade de abelhas (Hymenoptera, Apidae) ao longo de um gradiente latitudinal na Mata Atlântica

A Mata Atlântica é um dos ambientes mais ricos e ameaçados do mundo, o que deveria ter estimulado em muito o estudo e a conservação do Bioma, mas a fauna de Hymenoptera permanece ainda relativamente pouco conhecida. Em especial, a fauna de abelhas da floresta ombrófila densa é pouco estudada em comparação à fauna das áreas abertas brasileiras. O projeto temático "Biodiversidade de Hymenoptera e Isoptera: riqueza e diversidade ao longo de um gradiente latitudinal na Mata Atlântica - a floresta úmida do leste do Brasil", integrante do Programa Biota-Fapesp, foi idealizado com o objetivo de catalogar térmitas, formigas e famílias selecionadas de vespas ao longo da Mata Atlântica, disponibilizando dados que permitam melhor embasar a conservação deste bioma. O protocolo de amostragem aplicada para a coleta de himenópteros (excluindo as formigas) empregou armadilhas Malaise, pratos-armadilha de cor amarela e esforço similar na varredura de vegetação ao longo de 17 localidades selecionadas, representando um gradiente de quase 20° de latitude na Mata Atlântica, dos Estados da Paraíba até Santa Catarina. Este protocolo foi definido para otimizar a coleta de vespas, sendo as abelhas um produto secundário da amostragem (levantamentos de abelhas em geral utilizam captura em flores ao longo das estações do ano). No entanto, devido à escala regional do projeto e ao grande esforço de amostragem, uma expressiva quantidade de abelhas foi coletada durante o projeto, incluindo novos registros de abelhas para a Mata Atlântica. Foi amostrado um total de 797 espécimes distribuídos em 105 espécies de abelhas; o grupo de abelhas mais rico e abundante foi Meliponina. Uma análise de correspondência "destendenciada" ('detrended correspondence analysis') aplicada à uma matriz de presença ou ausência de Meliponina revela a relativamente fraca influência do gradiente latitudinal na composição das assembléias de abelhas de Mata Atlântica. Uma listagem das espécies amostradas por localidade, com suas freqüências relativas, é apresentada e discutida.

Photo-fenton degradation of poly(Ethyleneglycol)

Polyethyleneglycol (PEG) was photooxidized in a photo-Fenton system and results compared with the dark reaction. The products were analysed using GPC and HPLC. In the absence of light, PEG samples needed 490 min to reduce their w by 50%, whereas under UV irradiation, only 10 min were necessary. The exponential decay of w with a concomitant increase in polydispersity and number of average chain scission, characterized a random chain scission mechanism. The degradation products of PEG in both systems showed the presence of lower molecular weight products, including smaller ethyleneglycols and formic acid. The mechanism involves consecutive processes, were the larger ethyleneglycols give rise, successively, to smaller ones. This suggests that the mechanism involves successive scissions of the polymer chain. Irradiated samples decomposed faster than those kept in the dark This study proves that the foto-Fenton method associated with UV-light is a good reactant for PEG photodegradation.

Time resolved emission spectroscopy of poly(2,5-dicyano-p-phenylene-vinylene) films

Films of poly (2,5-dicyano-p-phenylene vinylene), DCNPPV, were obtained by electrochemical synthesis over gold thin layer (20 nm) transparent electrode deposited on a glass plate. The DCNPPV films of 4 µm thickness were produced by electropolymerization process of α,α,α',α'-tetrabromo-2-5-dicyano-p-xilene at different applied potentials (-0.15, -0.25, -0.40, -0.60, -0.80, and -1.0 V) using 0.1 mol L-1 of tetraethylammonium bromide in acetonitrile as the supporting electrolyte. The emission decays have three exponential components: a fast component in the picosecond range (200-400 ps), and two other of about one and five nanoseconds at 293 K. The fluorescence quenching process seems to occur by exciton trapping in a low-energy site and quenching by residual bromine monomer attached at the end of the polymer chain. However, the electrochemical synthesis generates entrapped bromide or ion pairs during the growth step of the film which also contributes to the deactivation. The change of the electrolyte from bromide to perchlorate reduces significantly this additional quenching effect by allowing ion exchange of formed bromide with the nonquenching perchloride anion.

Characterization of the interdependency between residues that bind the substrate in a β-glycosidase

The manner by which effects of simultaneous mutations combine to change enzymatic activity is not easily predictable because these effects are not always additive in a linear manner. Hence, the characterization of the effects of simultaneous mutations of amino acid residues that bind the substrate can make a significant contribution to the understanding of the substrate specificity of enzymes. In the β-glycosidase from Spodoptera frugiperda (Sfβgly), both residues Q39 and E451 interact with the substrate and this is essential for defining substrate specificity. Double mutants of Sfβgly (A451E39, S451E39 and S451N39) were prepared by site-directed mutagenesis, expressed in bacteria and purified using affinity chromatography. These enzymes were characterized using p-nitrophenyl β-galactoside and p-nitrophenyl β-fucoside as substrates. The k cat/Km ratio for single and double mutants of Sfβgly containing site-directed mutations at positions Q39 and E451 was used to demonstrate that the effect on the free energy of ES‡ (enzyme-transition state complex) of the double mutations (∆∆G‡xy) is not the sum of the effects resulting from the single mutations (∆∆G‡x and ∆∆G‡y). This difference in ∆∆G‡ indicates that the effects of the single mutations partially overlap. Hence, this common effect counts only once in ∆∆G‡xy. Crystallographic data on β-glycosidases reveal the presence of a bidentate hydrogen bond involving residues Q39 and E451 and the same hydroxyl group of the substrate. Therefore, both thermodynamic and crystallographic data suggest that residues Q39 and E451 exert a mutual influence on their respective interactions with the substrate.

Filmes ultrafinos de ésteres de celulose: preparo, caracterização e imobilização de proteínas

In this study cellulose acetate butyrate (CAB) and carboxymehtylcellulose acetate butyrate (CMCAB) films adsorbed onto silicon wafers were characterized by means of ellipsometry, atomic force microscopy (AFM), sum frequency generation spectroscopy (SFG) and contact angle measurements. The adsorption behavior of lysozyme (LIS) or bovine serum albumin (BSA) onto CAB and CMCAB films was investigated. The amounts of adsorbed LIS or BSA onto CMCAB films were more pronounced than those onto CAB films due to the presence of carboxymethyl group in the CMCAB structure. Besides, the adsorption of BSA molecules on CMCAB films was more favored than that of LIS molecules. Antimicrobial effect of LIS bound to CAB or CMCAB layers was evaluated using Micrococcus luteus as substrate.

Estudo da decomposição térmica de propelente sólido compósito de baixa emissão de fumaça

The thermal decomposition of hydroxyl-terminated polybutadiene (HTPB)/ammonium nitrate (AN) based propellants, so called smokeless formulations, and raw materials were investigated by differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and thermogravimetry (TG). The thermoanalytical profile of different components and of propellant were evaluated and the Arrhenius parameters for the thermal decomposition of the propellant sample were determined by the Ozawa method. The kinetic parameters of the thermal decomposition of propellant samples were determined by DSC measurements. The values obtained for activation energy (Ea) and pre-exponential factor were 163 kJ mol-1 and 1.94x10(6) min-1.

Índice h de docentes em Saúde Coletiva no Brasil

OBJETIVO: Estimar valores de referência e função de hierarquia de docentes em Saúde Coletiva do Brasil por meio de análise da distribuição do índice h. MÉTODOS: A partir do portal da Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior, 934 docentes foram identificados em 2008, dos quais 819 foram analisados. O índice h de cada docente foi obtido na Web of Science mediante algoritmos de busca com controle para homonímias e alternativas de grafia de nome. Para cada região e para o Brasil como um todo ajustou-se função densidade de probabilidade exponencial aos parâmetros média e taxa de decréscimo por região. Foram identificadas medidas de posição e, com o complemento da função probabilidade acumulada, função de hierarquia entre autores conforme o índice h por região. RESULTADOS: Dos docentes, 29,8% não tinham qualquer registro de citação (h = 0). A média de h para o País foi 3,1, com maior média na região Sul (4,7). A mediana de h para o País foi 2,1, também com maior mediana na Sul (3,2). Para uma padronização de população de autores em cem, os primeiros colocados para o País devem ter h = 16; na estratificação por região, a primeira posição demanda valores mais altos no Nordeste, Sudeste e Sul, sendo nesta última h = 24. CONCLUSÕES: Avaliados pelos índices h da Web of Science, a maioria dos autores em Saúde Coletiva não supera h = 5. Há diferenças entres as regiões, com melhor desempenho para a Sul e valores semelhantes entre Sudeste e Nordeste.

Crescimento alométrico dos componentes da carcaça de cordeiros Texel × Ile de France confinados do desmame aos 35kg de peso vivo

Foi avaliado o crescimento alométrico de ossos, músculos e gordura, e das regiões da carcaça de cordeiros Texel × Ile de France, terminados em confinamento. Vinte cordeiros, machos não-castrados, foram desmamados aos 42 dias de idade (15,9 ± 2,1kg de peso vivo) e confinados em baias individuais recebendo alimentação ad libitum. Destes, cinco foram abatidos 10 dias após o desmame e, os remanescentes, aos 25, 30 ou 35kg de peso vivo. Para determinação do crescimento alométrico dos cortes e tecidos foi utilizada a equação exponencial Y = aXb, transformada logaritmicamente em um modelo linear. Observou-se crescimento precoce (b = 0,89) da paleta, ao passo que a perna, a costela e o pescoço apresentaram crescimento isogônico (b = 1,00, 1,03 e 1,11, respectivamente), ou seja, equivalente ao da carcaça. O aumento do peso da carcaça implicou em redução da taxa de crescimento de ossos e músculos (b = 0,60 e 0,92, respectivamente) e aumento da taxa de crescimento da gordura (b = 1,78). O crescimento muscular foi diferenciado nas distintas regiões da carcaça, sendo isogônico na paleta (b = 0,98) e na perna (b = 0,99) e precoce na costela (b = 0,90) e no pescoço (b = 0,79). Recomenda-se que o abate de cordeiros Texel × Ile de France seja realizado com, no máximo, 30kg de peso vivo.

Risk optimization of a steel frame communications tower subject to tornado winds

The structural engineering community in Brazil faces new challenges with the recent occurrence of high intensity tornados. Satellite surveillance data shows that the area covering the south-east of Brazil, Uruguay and some of Argentina is one of the world most tornado-prone areas, second only to the infamous tornado alley in central United States. The design of structures subject to tornado winds is a typical example of decision making in the presence of uncertainty. Structural design involves finding a good balance between the competing goals of safety and economy. This paper presents a methodology to find the optimum balance between these goals in the presence of uncertainty. In this paper, reliability-based risk optimization is used to find the optimal safety coefficient that minimizes the total expected cost of a steel frame communications tower, subject to extreme storm and tornado wind loads. The technique is not new, but it is applied to a practical problem of increasing interest to Brazilian structural engineers. The problem is formulated in the partial safety factor format used in current design codes, with all additional partial factor introduced to serve as optimization variable. The expected cost of failure (or risk) is defined as the product of a. limit state exceedance probability by a limit state exceedance cost. These costs include costs of repairing, rebuilding, and paying compensation for injury and loss of life. The total expected failure cost is the sum of individual expected costs over all failure modes. The steel frame communications, tower subject of this study has become very common in Brazil due to increasing mobile phone coverage. The study shows that optimum reliability is strongly dependent on the cost (or consequences) of failure. Since failure consequences depend oil actual tower location, it turn,,; out that different optimum designs should be used in different locations. Failure consequences are also different for the different parties involved in the design, construction and operation of the tower. Hence, it is important that risk is well understood by the parties involved, so that proper contracts call be made. The investigation shows that when non-structural terms dominate design costs (e.g, in residential or office buildings) it is not too costly to over-design; this observation is in agreement with the observed practice for non-optimized structural systems. In this situation, is much easier to loose money by under-design. When by under-design. When structural material cost is a significant part of design cost (e.g. concrete dam or bridge), one is likely to lose significantmoney by over-design. In this situation, a cost-risk-benefit optimization analysis is highly recommended. Finally, the study also shows that under time-varying loads like tornados, the optimum reliability is strongly dependent on the selected design life.

Methodology to forecast the harvest date of banana bunches

Introduction. This method is used to forecast the harvest date of banana bunches from as early as the plant shooting stage. It facilitates the harvest of bunches with the same physiological age. The principle, key advantages, time required and expected results are presented. Materials and methods. Details of the four steps of the method ( installation of the temperature sensor, tagging bunches at the flowering stage, temperature sum calculation and estimation of bunch harvest date) are described. Possible problems are discussed. Results. The application of the method allows drawing a curve of the temperature sum accumulated by the bunches which have to be harvested at exactly 900 degree-days physiological age.

Validation of reference genes for gene expression studies in the honey bee, Apis mellifera, by quantitative real-time RT-PCR

For obtaining accurate and reliable gene expression results it is essential that quantitative real-time RT-PCR (qRT-PCR) data are normalized with appropriate reference genes. The current exponential increase in postgenomic studies on the honey bee, Apis mellifera, makes the standardization of qRT-PCR results an important task for ongoing community efforts. For this aim we selected four candidate reference genes (actin, ribosomal protein 49, elongation factor 1-alpha, tbp-association factor) and used three software-based approaches (geNorm, BestKeeper and NormFinder) to evaluate the suitability of these genes as endogenous controls. Their expression was examined during honey bee development, in different tissues, and after juvenile hormone exposure. Furthermore, the importance of choosing an appropriate reference gene was investigated for two developmentally regulated target genes. The results led us to consider all four candidate genes as suitable genes for normalization in A. mellifera. However, each condition evaluated in this study revealed a specific set of genes as the most appropriated ones.

Data collapse, scaling functions, and analytical solutions of generalized growth models

We consider a nontrivial one-species population dynamics model with finite and infinite carrying capacities. Time-dependent intrinsic and extrinsic growth rates are considered in these models. Through the model per capita growth rate we obtain a heuristic general procedure to generate scaling functions to collapse data into a simple linear behavior even if an extrinsic growth rate is included. With this data collapse, all the models studied become independent from the parameters and initial condition. Analytical solutions are found when time-dependent coefficients are considered. These solutions allow us to perceive nontrivial transitions between species extinction and survival and to calculate the transition's critical exponents. Considering an extrinsic growth rate as a cancer treatment, we show that the relevant quantity depends not only on the intensity of the treatment, but also on when the cancerous cell growth is maximum.

rho(0) photoproduction in ultraperipheral relativistic heavy ion collisions at root s(NN)=200 GeV

Photoproduction reactions occur when the electromagnetic field of a relativistic heavy ion interacts with another heavy ion. The STAR Collaboration presents a measurement of rho(0) and direct pi(+)pi(-) photoproduction in ultraperipheral relativistic heavy ion collisions at root s(NN) = 200 GeV. We observe both exclusive photoproduction and photoproduction accompanied by mutual Coulomb excitation. We find a coherent cross section of sigma(AuAu -> Au*Au*rho(0)) = 530 +/- 19(stat.) +/- 57(syst.) mb, in accord with theoretical calculations based on a Glauber approach, but considerably below the predictions of a color dipole model. The rho 0 transverse momentum spectrum (p(T)(2)) is fit by a double exponential curve including both coherent and incoherent coupling to the target nucleus; we find sigma(inc)/sigma(coh) = 0.29 +/- 0.03 (stat.) +/- 0.08 (syst.). The ratio of direct pi(+)pi(-) to rho(0) production is comparable to that observed in gamma(p) collisions at HERA and appears to be independent of photon energy. Finally, the measured rho(0) spin helicity matrix elements agree within errors with the expected s-channel helicity conservation.