A vaccination game based on public health actions and personal decisions

Susceptible-infective-removed (SIR) models are commonly used for representing the spread of contagious diseases. A SIR model can be described in terms of a probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA), where each individual (corresponding to a cell of the PCA lattice) is connected to others by a random network favoring local contacts. Here, this framework is employed for investigating the consequences of applying vaccine against the propagation of a contagious infection, by considering vaccination as a game, in the sense of game theory. In this game, the players are the government and the susceptible newborns. In order to maximize their own payoffs, the government attempts to reduce the costs for combating the epidemic, and the newborns may be vaccinated only when infective individuals are found in their neighborhoods and/or the government promotes an immunization program. As a consequence of these strategies supported by cost-benefit analysis and perceived risk, numerical simulations show that the disease is not fully eliminated and the government implements quasi-periodic vaccination campaigns. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Annual and polyetic progression of citrus canker on trees protected with copper sprays

The effects of copper sprays on annual and polyetic progress of citrus canker, caused by Xanthomonas citri subsp. citri, in the presence of the Asian citrus leafminer (Phyllocnistis citrella), were evaluated in a study conducted in a commercial orchard in northwest Parana state, Brazil, where citrus canker is endemic. Nonlinear monomolecular, logistic and Gompertz models were fitted to monthly disease incidence data (proportion of leaves with symptoms) for each treatment for three seasons. The logistic model provided the best estimate of disease progress for all years and treatments evaluated and logistic parameter estimates were used to describe polyetic disease dynamics. Although citrus canker incidence increased during each of the seasons studied, it decreased over the whole study period, more so in copper-treated trees than in water-sprayed controls. Copper treatment reduced disease incidence compared with controls in every year, especially 2004-2005, when incidence was ca. 10-fold higher in controls than in treated plots (estimated asymptote values 0 center dot 82 and 0 center dot 07, respectively). Copper treatment also reduced estimated initial disease incidence and epidemic growth rates every year.

Surface Liming and Zinc Availability in a Long-Term Experiment under No-Till System

No-till (NT) system with crop rotation is one of the most effective strategies to improve agricultural sustainability in tropical and subtropical regions. To control soil acidity in NT, lime is broadcast on the surface without incorporation. The increase in soil pH due to surface liming may decrease zinc (Zn) availability and its uptake by crops. A field experiment was performed in Parana State, Brazil, on a loamy, kaolinitic, thermic Typic Hapludox to evaluate Zn bioavailability in a NT system after surface liming and re-liming. Dolomitic lime was surface applied on the main plots in July 1993 at the rates of 0, 2, 4, and 6 Mg ha-1. In June 2000, the main plots were divided in two subplots to study of the effect of surface re-liming at the rates of 0 and 3 Mg ha-1. The cropping sequence was soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merrill] (2001-2 and 2002-3), wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) (2003), soybean (2003-4), corn (Zea mays L.) (2004-5), and soybean (2005-6). Soil samples were collected at the following depths: 0-0.05, 0.05-0.10, and 0.10-0.20m, 10 years after surface liming and 3 years after surface re-liming. Soil Zn levels were extracted by four extractants: (i) 0.005molL-1 diethylenetriaminepentaacetic acid (DTPA) + 0.1molL-1 triethanolamine (TEA) + 0.01molL-1 calcium chloride (CaCl2) solution at pH7.3 (DTPA-TEA), (ii) 0.1molL-1 hydrochloric acid (HCl) solution, (iii) Mehlich 1 solution, and (iv) Mehlich 3 solution. Zinc concentrations in leaves and grains of soybean, wheat, and corn were also determined. Soil pH (0.01molL-1 CaCl2 suspension) varied from 4.4 to 6.1, at the 0- to 0.05-m depth, from 4.2 to 5.3 at the 0.05- to 0.10-m depth, and from 4.2 to 4.8 at the 0.10- to 0.20-m depth, after liming and re-liming. Zinc concentrations evaluated by DTPA-TEA, 0.1molL-1 HCl, Mehlich 1, and Mehlich 3 solutions were not changed as a result of lime rate application. Re-liming increased Zn concentrations extracted by 0.1molL-1 HCl at 0-0.05m deep and by DTPA-TEA at 0.05-0.10m deep. Surface-applied lime promoted a decrease in Zn concentrations of the crops, mainly in grains, because of increased soil pH at the surface layers. Regardless of the liming treatments, levels of Zn were sufficient to soybean, wheat, and corn nutrition under NT.

Potassium Soil Test Calibration for Lowland Rice on an Inceptisol

Potassium (K) plays an important role in many physiological and biochemical processes in plants and its adequate use is an important issue for sustainable economic crop production. Soil test-based K fertilizer recommendations are very limited for lowland rice (Oryza sativa L.) grown on Inceptisols. The objective of this study was to calibrate K soil testing for the response of lowland rice (cv. Ipagri 109) to added K. A field experiment was conducted in the farmers` field in the municipality of Lagoa da Confusao, State of Tocantins, central Brazil. The K rates used were 0, 125, 250, 375, 500, and 625 kg K ha-1 applied as broadcast and incorporated during sowing of the first rice crop. Rice responded significantly to K fertilization during 2 years of experimentation. Maximum grain yield of about 6,000 kg ha-1 was obtained with 57 mg K kg-1 soil in the first year and with 30 mg K kg-1 in the second year. This indicated that at low levels of K in the soil, nonexchangeable K was available for plant growth. Potassium use efficiency designated as agronomic efficiency (kg grain produced/kg K applied) decreased significantly in a quadratic fashion with increasing K level in the soil. Agronomic efficiency had a significantly linear association with grain yield. Hence, improving agronomic efficiency with management practices can improve rice yield.

Direct Detection of Mycobacterium bovis in Bovine Lymph Nodes by PCR

P>Thirty-five lymph node samples were taken from animals with macroscopic lesions consistent with Mycobacterium bovis infection. The animals were identified by postmortem examination in an abattoir in the northwestern region of state of Parana, Brazil. Twenty-two of the animals had previously been found to be tuberculin skin test positive. Tissue samples were decontaminated by Petroff`s method and processed for acid-fast bacilli staining, culture in Stonebrink and Lowenstein-Jensen media and DNA extraction. Lymph node DNA samples were amplified by PCR in the absence and presence (inhibitor controls) of DNA extracted from M. bovis culture. Mycobacterium bovis was identified in 14 (42.4%) lymph node samples by both PCR and by culture. The frequency of PCR-positive results (54.5%) was similar to that of culture-positive results (51.5%, P > 0.05). The percentage of PCR-positive lymph nodes increased from 39.4% (13/33) to 54.5% (18/33) when samples that were initially PCR-negative were reanalysed using 2.5 mu l DNA (two samples) and 1 : 2 diluted DNA (three samples). PCR sensitivity was affected by inhibitors and by the amount of DNA in the clinical samples. Our results indicate that direct detection of M. bovis in lymph nodes by PCR may be a fast and useful tool for bovine tuberculosis epidemic management in the region.

Predictors of Lethality in Severe Leptospirosis in Urban Brazil

To ascertain prognostic factors associated with fatal outcomes in severe leptospirosis, a retrospective case-control study was done using population-based surveillance data. Centralized death certificate reporting of leptospirosis mortality was combined with details of patients` hospitalizations, which were obtained from hospitals representing all sectors of Sao Paulo city. Among identified leptospirosis cases, 89 lethal cases and 281 survivor cases were analyzed. Predictors of death included age > 40 years, development of oliguria, platelet count < 70,000/mu L, creatinine > 3 mg/dL. and pulmonary involvement. The latter was the strongest risk Factor with all estimated odds ratio of 6.0 (95% confidence interval: 3.0-12.0). Serologic findings with highest titer against Leptospira interrogans serovar Copenhageni did not show significant differences between survivors and non-survivors. Lung involvement was an important predictor of death in leptospirosis in Sao Paulo, of relevance in leptospirosis-endemic regions where this complication is common.

Dynamics of Hepatitis D (delta) virus genotype 3 in the Amazon region of South America

Hepatitis delta virus (HDV) is widely distributed and associated with fulminant hepatitis epidemics in areas with high prevalence of HBV. Several studies performed in the 1980s showed data on HDV infection in South America, but there are no studies on the viral dynamics of this virus. The aim of this study was to conduct an evolutionary analysis of hepatitis delta genotype 3 (HDV/3) prevalent in South America: estimate its nucleotide substitution rate, determine the time of most recent ancestor (TMRCA) and characterize the epidemic history and evolutionary dynamics. Furthermore, we characterized the presence of HBV/HDV infection in seven samples collected from patients who died due to fulminant hepatitis from Amazon region in Colombia and included them in the evolutionary analysis. This is the first study reporting HBV and HDV sequences from the Amazon region of Colombia. Of the seven Colombian patients, five were positive for HBV-DNA and HDV-RNA. Of them, two samples were successfully sequenced for HBV (subgenotypes F3 and Fib) and the five samples HDV positive were classified as HDV/3. By using all HDV/3 available reference sequences with sampling dates (n = 36), we estimated the HDV/3 substitution rate in 1.07 x 10(-3) substitutions per site per year (s/s/y), which resulted in a time to the most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) of 85 years. Also, it was determined that HDV/3 spread exponentially from early 1950s to the 1970s in South America. This work discusses for the first time the viral dynamics for the HDV/3 circulating in South America. We suggest that the measures implemented to control HBV transmission resulted in the control of HDV/3 spreading in South America, especially after the important raise in this infection associated with a huge mortality during the 1950s up to the 1970s. The differences found among HDV/3 and the other HDV genotypes concerning its diversity raises the hypothesis of a different origin and/or a different transmission route. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Antiretroviral Drug Resistance in a Respondent-Driven Sample of HIV-Infected Men Who Have Sex With Men in Brazil

Background: There are few studies on HIV subtypes and primary and secondary antiretroviral drug resistance (ADR) in community-recruited samples in Brazil. We analyzed HIV clade diversity and prevalence of mutations associated with ADR in men who have sex with men in all five regions of Brazil. Methods: Using respondent-driven sampling, we recruited 3515 men who have sex with men in nine cities: 299 (9.5%) were HIV-positive; 143 subjects had adequate genotyping and epidemiologic data. Forty-four (30.8%) subjects were antiretroviral therapy-experienced (AE) and 99 (69.2%) antiretroviral therapy-naive (AN). We sequenced the reverse transcriptase and protease regions of the virus and analyzed them for drug resistant mutations using World Health Organization guidelines. Results: The most common subtypes were B (81.8%), C (7.7%), and recombinant forms (6.9%). The overall prevalence of primary ADR resistance was 21.4% (i.e. among the AN) and secondary ADR was 35.8% (i.e. among the AE). The prevalence of resistance to protease inhibitors was 3.9% (AN) and 4.4% (AE); to nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors 15.0% (AN) and 31.0% (AE) and to nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors 5.5% (AN) and 13.2% (AE). The most common resistance mutation for nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors was 184V (17 cases) and for nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors 103N (16 cases). Conclusions: Our data suggest a high level of both primary and secondary ADR in men who have sex with men in Brazil. Additional studies are needed to identify the correlates and causes of antiretroviral therapy resistance to limit the development of resistance among those in care and the transmission of resistant strains in the wider epidemic.

Risk Estimates of Dengue in Travelers to Dengue Endemic Areas Using Mathematical Models

Dengue has emerged as a frequent problem in international travelers. The risk depends on destination, duration, and season of travel. However, data to quantify the true risk for travelers to acquire dengue are lacking. We used mathematical models to estimate the risk of nonimmune persons to acquire dengue when traveling to Singapore. From the force of infection, we calculated the risk of dengue dependent on duration of stay and season of arrival. Our data highlight that the risk for nonimmune travelers to acquire dengue in Singapore is substantial but varies greatly with seasons and epidemic cycles. For instance, for a traveler who stays in Singapore for 1 week during the high dengue season in 2005, the risk of acquiring dengue was 0.17%, but it was only 0.00423% during the low season in a nonepidemic year such as 2002. Risk estimates based on mathematical modeling will help the travel medicine provider give better evidence-based advice for travelers to dengue endemic countries.

AIDS along Brazil`s borders, 1990-2003

Objective. To study the AIDS epidemic in Brazil`s border areas, from the spatial and temporal perspective. Methods. This was an ecological study in which the cases of AIDS reported to the Ministry of Health of Brazil from 1990-2003 were grouped according to ""hunger areas"" as defined by Josue de Castro in the 1940s and according to 19 cultural subregions. Spatial assessment was based on incidence rates for border municipalities; temporal assessment considered the absolute number of cases occurring quarterly from 1990-2003 in each of the hunger areas studied (Extreme South, Midwest, and Amazon). Results. During the study period, 7 973 cases of AIDS were reported from the Brazilian border areas: 648 in the Amazon area, 1 579 in the Midwest, and 5 746 in the Extreme South (populations of 668 098, 895 489, and 2 769 361, respectively). The subregions with the highest AIDS incidence rates in each of the three border areas were those near triple-borders, between more than two Latin American countries. Sexual transmission was predominant, with heterosexual transmission being the most frequent, followed by transmission by male homosexuality. These two categories accounted for 87.2% of the cases reported. The estimates of the trend parameter in the temporal analysis were 0.53 (P < 0.0001), 0.83 (P < 0.0001), and 3.47 (P < 0.0001), respectively, for the Amazon, Midwest, and Extreme South areas. Conclusion. The improvement of health care services along Brazil`s borders may be a strategy for territorial integration and for dealing with the AIDS epidemic, as long as social, economic, and cultural differences are taken into account.

A hypothesis for explaining single outbreaks (like the Black Death in European cities) of vector-borne infections

We propose a mechanism by which single outbreaks of vector-borne infections can happen even when the value of the basic reproduction number, R(o), of the infection is below one. With this hypothesis we have shown that dynamical models simulations demonstrate that the arrival of a relatively small (with respect to the host population) number of infected vectors can trigger a short-lived epidemic but with a huge number of cases. These episodes are characterized by a sudden outbreak in a previously virgin area that last from weeks to a few months, and then disappear without leaving vestiges. The hypothesis proposed in this paper to explain those single outbreaks of vector-borne infections, even when total basic reproduction number, Ro, is less than one (which explain the fact that those infections fail to establish themselves at endemic levels), is that the vector-to-host component of Ro is greater than one and that a sufficient amount of infected vectors are imported to the vulnerable area, triggering the outbreak. We tested the hypothesis by performing numerical simulations that reproduce the observed outbreaks of chikungunya in Italy in 2007 and the plague in Florence in 1348. The theory proposed provides an explanation for isolated outbreaks of vector-borne infections, ways to calculate the size of those outbreaks from the number of infected vectors arriving in the affected areas. Given the ever-increasing worldwide transportation network, providing a high degree of mobility from endemic to virgin areas, the proposed mechanism may have important implications for public health planning. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling the control strategies against dengue in Singapore

Notified cases of dengue infections in Singapore reached historical highs in 2004 (9459 cases) and 2005 (13 817 cases) and the reason for such all increase is still to be established. We apply a mathematical model for dengue infection that takes into account the seasonal variation in incidence, characteristic of dengue fever, and which mimics the 2004-2005 epidemics in Singapore. We simulated a set of possible control strategies and confirmed the intuitive belief that killing adult mosquitoes is the most effective strategy to control an ongoing epidemic. On the other hand, the control of immature forms was very efficient ill preventing the resurgence of dengue epidemics. Since the control of immature forms allows the reduction of adulticide, it seems that the best strategy is to combine both adulticide and larvicide control measures during an outbreak, followed by the maintenance of larvicide methods after the epidemic has subsided. In addition, the model showed that the mixed strategy of adulticide and larvicide methods introduced by the government seems to be very effective in reducing the number of cases in the first weeks after the start of control.

Early Identification of Infectious Complications in Bariatric Surgery by the Determination of Peritoneal and Systemic Cytokines

Obesity has become a global epidemic and bariatric surgery is one of the therapeutic tools to deal with it. Postoperative complications can occur, such as staple line dehiscence and anastomotic leaks, leading to increased patient mortality. The diagnosis of these complications is frequently difficult. The objective of the present study was to determine whether peritoneal and systemic cytokines could early detect those complications. All patients who underwent open Roux-en-Y gastric bypass from February 2007 to August 2008 were prospectively evaluated. Blood and peritoneal effluent from the drain were collected for the determination of cytokine levels. We also evaluated the clinical signs and the leukograms of the patients. A total of 107 obese patients were studied. Ninety patients had no complications; 17 had at least one infectious complication which include five cases of staple line dehiscence. Until the third postoperative day, the vital signs and the leukogram did not predict the onset of infectious complications, but the cytokines (interleukin-1 beta and interleukin-6) were early markers of these complications. Cytokines are good predictors of poor postoperative evolution in bariatric surgery since peritoneal cytokines diagnose better these infectious complications even before changes in blood count and before the occurrence of clinical manifestations.

Small-World Effect in Epidemics Using Cellular Automata

The spread of an infectious disease in a population involves interactions leading to an epidemic outbreak through a network of contacts. Extending on Watts and Strogatz (1998) who showed that short-distance connections create a small-world effect, a model combining short-and long-distance probabilistic and regularly updated contacts helps considering spatial heterogeneity. The method is based on cellular automata. The presence of long-distance connections accelerates the small-world effect, as if the world shrank in proportion of their total number.

Hospitalizations for HIV/AIDS: Differences Between Sexes

Background: Women are especially vulnerable to HIV infection because of biological, social, cultural, and economic factors. In Brazil, AIDS was initially seen predominantly in homosexual men, but the epidemic gradually reached a gender balance as increasing numbers of women became infected with HIV. Objective: The aim of the present study was to identify the clinical and epidemiologic characteristics of hospitalized patients with HIV/AIDS of both sexes and compare the differences between them. Methods: This epidemiologic cross-sectional study evaluated gender differences in demographic, social, clinical, and epidemiologic characteristics of patients diagnosed with HIV/AIDS who were admitted for any reason to the Public Hospital of the Medical School of the Federal University of Triangulo Mineiro, Uberaba, Minas Gerais State, Brazil. Results: A total of 363 patients were included in the analysis, with a male/female ratio of 1.1:1.0. Forty-one percent of women were pregnant. Mean age at hospitalization and duration of hospitalization were significantly greater among men (P < 0.05). Men and nonpregnant women were admitted because of infection significantly more often than were pregnant women (P < 0.05). Significantly more single men who reported homosexual, bisexual, or heterosexual behavior associated with drug use were admitted compared with women (P < 0.05). Women admitted for treatment were significantly more likely than men to be employed (P < 0.05). Adherence to antiretroviral treatment and T CD4+ lymphocyte count indicated important differences between the sexes, with better parameters observed among nonpregnant and pregnant women compared with men. Conclusions: In the present study, women with HIV/AIDS who were admitted to the hospital for any reason were in better clinical condition compared with men. This observation may be partially explained by the proportion of pregnant women in the study population. These findings suggest that future studies should examine pregnant women with HIV/AIDS as a separate population group to avoid bias in analysis. (Gend Med. 2010;7:28-38) (C) 2010 Excerpta Medica Inc.