Log-modified Weibull regression models with censored data: Sensitivity and residual analysis

This paper proposes a regression model considering the modified Weibull distribution. This distribution can be used to model bathtub-shaped failure rate functions. Assuming censored data, we consider maximum likelihood and Jackknife estimators for the parameters of the model. We derive the appropriate matrices for assessing local influence on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes and we also present some ways to perform global influence. Besides, for different parameter settings, sample sizes and censoring percentages, various simulations are performed and the empirical distribution of the modified deviance residual is displayed and compared with the standard normal distribution. These studies suggest that the residual analysis usually performed in normal linear regression models can be straightforwardly extended for a martingale-type residual in log-modified Weibull regression models with censored data. Finally, we analyze a real data set under log-modified Weibull regression models. A diagnostic analysis and a model checking based on the modified deviance residual are performed to select appropriate models. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On estimation and influence diagnostics for zero-inflated negative binomial regression models

The zero-inflated negative binomial model is used to account for overdispersion detected in data that are initially analyzed under the zero-Inflated Poisson model A frequentist analysis a jackknife estimator and a non-parametric bootstrap for parameter estimation of zero-inflated negative binomial regression models are considered In addition an EM-type algorithm is developed for performing maximum likelihood estimation Then the appropriate matrices for assessing local influence on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes and some ways to perform global influence analysis are derived In order to study departures from the error assumption as well as the presence of outliers residual analysis based on the standardized Pearson residuals is discussed The relevance of the approach is illustrated with a real data set where It is shown that zero-inflated negative binomial regression models seems to fit the data better than the Poisson counterpart (C) 2010 Elsevier B V All rights reserved

Estimating hourly net radiation for leaf wetness duration using the Penman-Monteith equation

Leaf wetness duration (LWD) is related to plant disease occurrence and is therefore a key parameter in agrometeorology. As LWD is seldom measured at standard weather stations, it must be estimated in order to ensure the effectiveness of warning systems and the scheduling of chemical disease control. Among the models used to estimate LWD, those that use physical principles of dew formation and dew and/or rain evaporation have shown good portability and sufficiently accurate results for operational use. However, the requirement of net radiation (Rn) is a disadvantage foroperational physical models, since this variable is usually not measured over crops or even at standard weather stations. With the objective of proposing a solution for this problem, this study has evaluated the ability of four models to estimate hourly Rn and their impact on LWD estimates using a Penman-Monteith approach. A field experiment was carried out in Elora, Ontario, Canada, with measurements of LWD, Rn and other meteorological variables over mowed turfgrass for a 58 day period during the growing season of 2003. Four models for estimating hourly Rn based on different combinations of incoming solar radiation (Rg), airtemperature (T), relative humidity (RH), cloud cover (CC) and cloud height (CH), were evaluated. Measured and estimated hourly Rn values were applied in a Penman-Monteith model to estimate LWD. Correlating measured and estimated Rn, we observed that all models performed well in terms of estimating hourly Rn. However, when cloud data were used the models overestimated positive Rn and underestimated negative Rn. When only Rg and T were used to estimate hourly Rn, the model underestimated positive Rn and no tendency was observed for negative Rn. The best performance was obtained with Model I, which presented, in general, the smallest mean absolute error (MAE) and the highest C-index. When measured LWD was compared to the Penman-Monteith LWD, calculated with measured and estimated Rn, few differences were observed. Both precision and accuracy were high, with the slopes of the relationships ranging from 0.96 to 1.02 and R-2 from 0.85 to 0.92, resulting in C-indices between 0.87 and 0.93. The LWD mean absolute errors associated with Rn estimates were between 1.0 and 1.5h, which is sufficient for use in plant disease management schemes.

Adoption of integrated production of peach system in Parana State

The success in the adoption of peach integrated production (IP) was evaluated in small orchards of the Parana State. The importance of specific technical accompaniment; points of strangulating in adoption of technology and the classification of the areas to IP conformity were evaluated. The seasons 2005/2006 (without IP orientation) and 2006/2007 (with IP orientation) were compared considering 20 producers who were oriented monthly to attend the minimum requisites. The incidence of peach rust (Tranzschelia discolor) and of brown rot (Monilinia fructicola) in full bloom was evaluated in 2006/2007 and 2007/2008 seasons, as biological parameters to accompany the efficiency of system adoption. After the technical accompaniment in 2007/2008 season, the software APOIA-Novo Rural-PI (APOIA-PI) was applied to measure the conformity to IP in peach orchards. The conformity index of each orchard was compared to the minimum requisite to classify as IP (0.7). The major difficulties in register of field book were: pests monitoring; collect of climate data and the harvest evaluation. The technical accompaniment increased in 60% the conformity in use of field book. In 2007/2008 season, the brown rot incidence increased in some areas, caused by not following IP recommendations. The inadequate management caused the increment in pathogen inoculum, promoting the disease development in peach orchards. The APOIA-PI classified two orchards as good agricultural practices (GAP) (0.7 <= conformity index >= 0.4), two as integrated production (IP) (>= 0.7) and the other orchards had conformity index lower than 0.4.

A Log-Linear Regression Model for the Beta-Weibull Distribution

We introduce the log-beta Weibull regression model based on the beta Weibull distribution (Famoye et al., 2005; Lee et al., 2007). We derive expansions for the moment generating function which do not depend on complicated functions. The new regression model represents a parametric family of models that includes as sub-models several widely known regression models that can be applied to censored survival data. We employ a frequentist analysis, a jackknife estimator, and a parametric bootstrap for the parameters of the proposed model. We derive the appropriate matrices for assessing local influences on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes and present some ways to assess global influences. Further, for different parameter settings, sample sizes, and censoring percentages, several simulations are performed. In addition, the empirical distribution of some modified residuals are displayed and compared with the standard normal distribution. These studies suggest that the residual analysis usually performed in normal linear regression models can be extended to a modified deviance residual in the proposed regression model applied to censored data. We define martingale and deviance residuals to evaluate the model assumptions. The extended regression model is very useful for the analysis of real data and could give more realistic fits than other special regression models.

Biomass sustainability, availability and productivity

Research conducted on biomass for Ulcos (""Ultra-Low CO(2) Steelmaking"" European Integrated Project) has progressively focused on charcoal supply from tropical eucalyptus plantations. The sustainability of such plantations is being investigated from the viewpoint of their carbon, water and nutrient budgets: they must all be neutral or positive. Field research is producing results at the tree or stand level in several sites of Congo and Brazil, while a spatial model is developed to identify the conditions of biomass neutrality at the scale of the forest ecosystem. The productivity of biomass has been analyzed through the description of practices along the various supply-schemes that competitively feed the steel industry in Brazil and identification of bottlenecks for further expansion.

Large-scale ecological restoration of high-diversity tropical forests in SE Brazil

The complex interactions among endangered ecosystems, landowners` interests, and different models of land tenure and use, constitute an important series of challenges for those seeking to maintain and restore biodiversity and augment the flow of ecosystem services. Over the past 10 years, we have developed a data-based approach to address these challenges and to achieve medium and large-scale ecological restoration of riparian areas on private lands in the state of Sao Paulo, southeastern Brazil. Given varying motivations for ecological restoration, the location of riparian areas within landholdings, environmental zoning of different riparian areas, and best-practice restoration methods were developed for each situation. A total of 32 ongoing projects, covering 527,982 ha, were evaluated in large sugarcane farms and small mixed farms, and six different restoration techniques have been developed to help upscale the effort. Small mixed farms had higher portions of land requiring protection as riparian areas (13.3%), and lower forest cover of riparian areas (18.3%), than large sugarcane farms (10.0% and 36.9%, respectively for riparian areas and forest cover values). In both types of farms, forest fragments required some degree of restoration. Historical anthropogenic degradation has compromised forest ecosystem structure and functioning, despite their high-diversity of native tree and shrub species. Notably, land use patterns in riparian areas differed markedly. Large sugarcane farms had higher portions of riparian areas occupied by highly mechanized agriculture, abandoned fields, and anthropogenic wet fields created by siltation in water courses. In contrast, in small mixed crop farms, low or non-mechanized agriculture and pasturelands were predominant. Despite these differences, plantations of native tree species covering the entire area was by far the main restoration method needed both by large sugarcane farms (76.0%) and small mixed farms (92.4%), in view of the low resilience of target sites, reduced forest cover, and high fragmentation, all of which limit the potential for autogenic restoration. We propose that plantations should be carried out with a high-diversity of native species in order to create biologically viable restored forests, and to assist long-term biodiversity persistence at the landscape scale. Finally, we propose strategies to integrate the political, socio-economic and methodological aspects needed to upscale restoration efforts in tropical forest regions throughout Latin America and elsewhere. (C) 2010 Elsevier BA/. All rights reserved.

Environmental impact evaluation using a cooperative model for implementing EMS (ISO 14001) in small and medium-sized enterprises

Certification of an ISO 14001 Environmental Management System (EMS) is currently an important requirement for those enterprises wishing to sell their products in the context of a global market. The system`s structure is based on environmental impact evaluation (EIE). However, if an erroneous or inadequate methodology is applied, the entire process may be jeopardized. Many methodologies have been developed for making of EIEs, some of them are fairly complex and unsuitable for EMS implementation in an organizational context, principally when small and medium size enterprises (SMEs) are involved. The proposed methodology for EIE is part of a model for implementing EMS. The methodological approach used was a qualitative exploratory research method based upon sources of evidence such as document analyses, semi-structured interviews and participant observations. By adopting a cooperative implementation model based on the theory of system engineering, difficulties relating to implementation of the sub-system were overcome thus encouraging SMEs to implement EMS. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Non-linear pathways of corporate environmental management: a survey of ISO 14001-certified companies in Brazil

A study was conducted to verify whether the theory on the evolution of corporate environmental management (CEM) is applicable to organizations located in Brazil. Some of the most important proposals pertaining to the evolution of CEM were evaluated in a systematic fashion and integrated into a typical theoretical framework containing three evolutionary stages: reactive, preventive and proactive. The validity of this framework was tested by surveying 94 companies located in Brazil with ISO 14001 certification. Results indicated that the evolution of CEM tends to occur in a manner that is counter to what has generally been described in the literature. Two evolutionary stages were identified: 1) synergy for eco-efficiency and 2) environmental legislation view, which combine variables that were initially categorized into different theoretical CEM stages. These data, obtained from a direct study of Brazilian companies, suggest that the evolution of environmental management in organizations tends to occur in a non-linear fashion, requiring a re-analysis of traditional perceptions of CEM development, as suggested by Kolk and Mauser (2002). (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Children`s oral production of narratives and constructive memory using prior reading of pictures

With the purpose of approximating two issues, oral narrative and constructive memory, we assume that children, as well as adults, have a constructive memory. Accordingly, researchers of the constructive memory share with piagetians the vision that memory is an applied cognition. Under this perspective, understanding and coding into memory constitute a process which is considered similar to the piagetian assimilation of building an internal conceptual representation of the information (hence the term constructive memory. The objective of this study is to examine and illustrate, through examples drawn from a research about oral narrative with 5, 8 and 10 years old children, the extent to which the constructive memory is stimulated by the acquisition of the structures of knowledge or ""mental models"" (schemes of stories and scenes, scripts), and if they automatically employ them to process constructively the information in storage and rebuild them in the recovery. A sequence of five pictures from a book without text was transformed into computerized program, and the pictures were thus presented to the children. The story focuses on a misunderstanding of two characters on a different assessment about a key event. In data collection, the demands of memory were preserved, since children narrate their stories when the images were no longer viewed on the computer screen. Each narrative was produced as a monologue. The results show that this story can be told either in a descriptive level or in a more elaborated level, where intentions and beliefs are attributed to the characters. Although this study allows an assessment of the development of children`s capabilities (both cognitive and linguistic) to narrate a story, there are for sure other issues that could be exploited.

Asbestos-related Disease Progression of Parenchymal Abnormalities on High-resolution CT

Purpose: To evaluate the changes over time in the pattern and extent of parenchymal abnormalities in asbestos-exposed workers after cessation of exposure and to compare 3 proposed semiquantitative methods with a careful side-by-side comparison of the initial and the follow-Lip computed tomography (CT) images. Materials and Methods: The study included 52 male asbestos workers (mean age SD, 62.2y +/- 8.2) who had baseline high-resolution CT after cessation of exposure and follow-up CT 3 to 5 years later. Two independent thoracic radiologists quantified the findings according to the scoring systems proposed by Huuskonen, Gamsu, and Sette and then did a side-by-side comparison of the 2 sets of scans without awareness of the dates of the CT scans. Results: There was no difference in the prevalence of the 2 most common parenchymal abnormalities (centrilobular small dotlike or branching opacities and interstitial lines) between the initial and follow-up CT scans. Honeycombing (20%) and traction bronchiectasis and bronchiolectasis (50%) were seen more commonly on the follow-up CT than on the initial examination (10% and 33%, respectively) (P = 0.01). Increased extent of parenchymal abnormalities was evident on side-by-side comparison in 42 (81%) patients but resulted in an increase in score in at least 1 semiquantitative system in only 16 (31%) patients (all P > 0.01, signed test). Conclusions: The majority of patients with previous asbestos exposure show evidence of progression of disease on CT at 3 to 5 years follow-up but this progression is usually not detected by the 3 proposed semiquantitative scoring schemes.

IMAGE QUANTIFICATION FOR RADIATION DOSE CALCULATIONS-LIMITATIONS AND UNCERTAINTIES

Radiation dose calculations in nuclear medicine depend on quantification of activity via planar and/or tomographic imaging methods. However, both methods have inherent limitations, and the accuracy of activity estimates varies with object size, background levels, and other variables. The goal of this study was to evaluate the limitations of quantitative imaging with planar and single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) approaches, with a focus on activity quantification for use in calculating absorbed dose estimates for normal organs and tumors. To do this we studied a series of phantoms of varying complexity of geometry, with three radionuclides whose decay schemes varied from simple to complex. Four aqueous concentrations of (99m)Tc, (131)I, and (111)In (74, 185, 370, and 740 kBq mL(-1)) were placed in spheres of four different sizes in a water-filled phantom, with three different levels of activity in the surrounding water. Planar and SPECT images of the phantoms were obtained on a modern SPECT/computed tomography (CT) system. These radionuclides and concentration/background studies were repeated using a cardiac phantom and a modified torso phantom with liver and ""tumor"" regions containing the radionuclide concentrations and with the same varying background levels. Planar quantification was performed using the geometric mean approach, with attenuation correction (AC), and with and without scatter corrections (SC and NSC). SPECT images were reconstructed using attenuation maps (AM) for AC; scatter windows were used to perform SC during image reconstruction. For spherical sources with corrected data, good accuracy was observed (generally within +/- 10% of known values) for the largest sphere (11.5 mL) and for both planar and SPECT methods with (99m)Tc and (131)I, but were poorest and deviated from known values for smaller objects, most notably for (111)In. SPECT quantification was affected by the partial volume effect in smaller objects and generally showed larger errors than the planar results in these cases for all radionuclides. For the cardiac phantom, results were the most accurate of all of the experiments for all radionuclides. Background subtraction was an important factor influencing these results. The contribution of scattered photons was important in quantification with (131)I; if scatter was not accounted for, activity tended to be overestimated using planar quantification methods. For the torso phantom experiments, results show a clear underestimation of activity when compared to previous experiment with spherical sources for all radionuclides. Despite some variations that were observed as the level of background increased, the SPECT results were more consistent across different activity concentrations. Planar or SPECT quantification on state-of-the-art gamma cameras with appropriate quantitative processing can provide accuracies of better than 10% for large objects and modest target-to-background concentrations; however when smaller objects are used, in the presence of higher background, and for nuclides with more complex decay schemes, SPECT quantification methods generally produce better results. Health Phys. 99(5):688-701; 2010

Urticaria unresponsive to antihistaminic treatment: An open study of therapeutic options based on histopathologic features

Background: The non- or low-sedating H1 receptor antagonists represent the basic therapy for urticaria. Objective: To test an alternative approach to patients unresponsive to conventional treatment. Materials and methods: A total of 22 patients with chronic urticaria unresponsive to conventional antihistamine treatment were enrolled for this study. They had uncontrolled urticaria even using multiple combinations of antihistamines on maximum doses and corticosteroids in short cycles (prednisone 20-40 mg, per os once a day, 3-7 days per month). Cutaneous biopsies of the urticaria lesions were taken. These findings were classified as: (I) a mixture of perivascular dermal inflammatory infiltrate composed of lymphocytes, monocytes and neutrophils and/or eosinophils; (II) inflammatory infiltrate composed chiefly of neutrophils; and (III) inflammatory infiltrate composed mainly of eosinophils. According to histology, the patients were submitted to one of the following therapeutic schemes: class A - antihistamine treatment plus dapsone; class B - colchicine or dapsone; class C montelukast. Results: Four patients in class A, 08 in class B and seven in class C displayed complete control of urticaria after 12 weeks of treatment; one patient in class B and two in class C did not respond to treatment. Two years after discontinuation, 16 patients are still free of urticaria. Conclusions: This study suggests an alternative approach for treating unresponsive chronic urticaria.

Vulnerability to heat-related mortality in Latin America: A case-crossover study in Sao Paulo, Brazil, Santiago, Chile and Mexico City, Mexico

Background Factors affecting vulnerability to heat-related mortality are not well understood. Identifying susceptible populations is of particular importance given anticipated rising temperatures from climatic change. Methods We investigated heat-related mortality for three Latin American cities (Mexico City, Mexico; Sao Paulo, Brazil; Santiago, Chile) using a case-crossover approach for 754 291 deaths from 1998 to 2002. We considered lagged exposures, confounding by air pollution, cause of death and susceptibilities by educational attainment, age and sex. Results Same and previous day apparent temperature were most strongly associated with mortality risk. Effect estimates remained positive though lowered after adjustment for ozone or PM(10). Susceptibility increased with age in all cities. The increase in mortality risk for those >= 65 comparing the 95th and 75th percentiles of same-day apparent temperature was 2.69% (95% CI: -2.06 to 7.88%) for Santiago, 6.51% (95% CI: 3.57-9.52%) for Sao Paulo and 3.22% (95% CI: 0.93-5.57%) for Mexico City. Patterns of vulnerability by education and sex differed across communities. Effect estimates were higher for women than men in Mexico City, and higher for men elsewhere, although results by sex were not appreciably different for any city. In Sao Paulo, those with less education were more susceptible, whereas no distinct patterns by education were observed in the other cities. Conclusions Elevated temperatures are associated with mortality risk in these Latin American cities, with the strongest associations in So Paulo, the hottest city. The elderly are an important population for targeted prevention measures, but vulnerability by sex and education differed by city.

Training in oncoplastic surgery: An international consensus. The 7th Portuguese Senology Congress, Vilamoura, 2009

Oncoplastic Breast Surgery (OPBS) is becoming an integral part of breast cancer management, but few surgeons have received formal training in these techniques. An International Symposium has recently debated the key issues which impact on training and specialisation in OPBS, as well as patient access to these procedures. The Symposium concluded that increasing the availability of OPBS is a major challenge, which demands much closer collaboration and cooperation between breast and plastic surgeons, backed up by new training schemes, new curricula and new guidelines. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.