System Identification and Prediction of Dengue Fever Incidence in Rio de Janeiro

Identification, prediction, and control of a system are engineering subjects, regardless of the nature of the system. Here, the temporal evolution of the number of individuals with dengue fever weekly recorded in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, during 2007, is used to identify SIS (susceptible-infective-susceptible) and SIR (susceptible-infective-removed) models formulated in terms of cellular automaton (CA). In the identification process, a genetic algorithm (GA) is utilized to find the probabilities of the state transition S -> I able of reproducing in the CA lattice the historical series of 2007. These probabilities depend on the number of infective neighbors. Time-varying and non-time-varying probabilities, three different sizes of lattices, and two kinds of coupling topology among the cells are taken into consideration. Then, these epidemiological models built by combining CA and GA are employed for predicting the cases of sick persons in 2008. Such models can be useful for forecasting and controlling the spreading of this infectious disease.

Estimation and prediction of parameters and breeding values in soybean using REML/BLUP and Least Squares

The aim of this study was to compare REML/BLUP and Least Square procedures in the prediction and estimation of genetic parameters and breeding values in soybean progenies. F(2:3) and F(4:5) progenies were evaluated in the 2005/06 growing season and the F(2:4) and F(4:6) generations derived thereof were evaluated in 2006/07. These progenies were originated from two semi-early, experimental lines that differ in grain yield. The experiments were conducted in a lattice design and plots consisted of a 2 m row, spaced 0.5 m apart. The trait grain yield per plot was evaluated. It was observed that early selection is more efficient for the discrimination of the best lines from the F(4) generation onwards. No practical differences were observed between the least square and REML/BLUP procedures in the case of the models and simplifications for REML/BLUP used here.

Identification of a Highly Antigenic Linear B Cell Epitope within Plasmodium vivax Apical Membrane Antigen 1 (AMA-1)

Apical membrane antigen 1 (AMA-1) is considered to be a major candidate antigen for a malaria vaccine. Previous immunoepidemiological studies of naturally acquired immunity to Plasmodium vivax AMA-1 (PvAMA-1) have shown a higher prevalence of specific antibodies to domain II (DII) of AMA-1. In the present study, we confirmed that specific antibody responses from naturally infected individuals were highly reactive to both full-length AMA-1 and DII. Also, we demonstrated a strong association between AMA-1 and DII IgG and IgG subclass responses. We analyzed the primary sequence of PvAMA-1 for B cell linear epitopes co-occurring with intrinsically unstructured/ disordered regions (IURs). The B cell epitope comprising the amino acid sequence 290-307 of PvAMA-1 (SASDQPTQYEEEMTDYQK), with the highest prediction scores, was identified in domain II and further selected for chemical synthesis and immunological testing. The antigenicity of the synthetic peptide was identified by serological analysis using sera from P. vivax-infected individuals who were knowingly reactive to the PvAMA-1 ectodomain only, domain II only, or reactive to both antigens. Although the synthetic peptide was recognized by all serum samples specific to domain II, serum with reactivity only to the full-length protein presented 58.3% positivity. Moreover, IgG reactivity against PvAMA-1 and domain II after depletion of specific synthetic peptide antibodies was reduced by 18% and 33% (P = 0.0001 for both), respectively. These results suggest that the linear epitope SASDQPTQYEEEMTDYQK is highly antigenic during natural human infections and is an important antigenic region of the domain II of PvAMA-1, suggesting its possible future use in pre-clinical studies.

Motor Nerve-Conduction Studies in Obstetric Brachial Plexopathy for a Selection of Patients with a Poor Outcome

Background: The criteria and timing for nerve surgery in infants with obstetric brachial plexopathy remain controversial. Our aim was to develop a new method for early prognostic assessment to assist this decision process. Methods: Fifty-four patients with unilateral obstetric brachial plexopathy who were ten to sixty days old underwent bilateral motor-nerve-conduction studies of the axillary, musculocutaneous, proximal radial, distal radial, median, and ulnar nerves. The ratio between the amplitude of the compound muscle action potential of the affected limb and that of the healthy side was called the axonal viability index. The patients were followed and classified in three groups according to the clinical outcome. We analyzed the receiver operating characteristic curve of each index to define the best cutoff point to detect patients with a poor recovery. Results: The best cutoff points on the axonal viability index for each nerve (and its sensitivity and specificity) were <10% (88% and 89%, respectively) for the axillary nerve, 0% (88% and 73%) for the musculocutaneous nerve, <20% (82% and 97%) for the proximal radial nerve, <50% (82% and 97%) for the distal radial nerve, and <50% (59% and 97%) for the ulnar nerve. The indices from the proximal radial, distal radial, and ulnar nerves had better specificities compared with the most frequently used clinical criterion: absence of biceps function at three months of age. Conclusions: The axonal viability index yields an earlier and more specific prognostic estimation of obstetric brachial plexopathy than does the clinical criterion of biceps function, and we believe it may be useful in determining surgical indications in these patients.

Transcriptional profiling reveals the expression of novel genes in response to various stimuli in the human dermatophyte Trichophyton rubrum

Background: Cutaneous mycoses are common human infections among healthy and immunocompromised hosts, and the anthropophilic fungus Trichophyton rubrum is the most prevalent microorganism isolated from such clinical cases worldwide. The aim of this study was to determine the transcriptional profile of T. rubrum exposed to various stimuli in order to obtain insights into the responses of this pathogen to different environmental challenges. Therefore, we generated an expressed sequence tag (EST) collection by constructing one cDNA library and nine suppression subtractive hybridization libraries. Results: The 1388 unigenes identified in this study were functionally classified based on the Munich Information Center for Protein Sequences (MIPS) categories. The identified proteins were involved in transcriptional regulation, cellular defense and stress, protein degradation, signaling, transport, and secretion, among other functions. Analysis of these unigenes revealed 575 T. rubrum sequences that had not been previously deposited in public databases. Conclusion: In this study, we identified novel T. rubrum genes that will be useful for ORF prediction in genome sequencing and facilitating functional genome analysis. Annotation of these expressed genes revealed metabolic adaptations of T. rubrum to carbon sources, ambient pH shifts, and various antifungal drugs used in medical practice. Furthermore, challenging T. rubrum with cytotoxic drugs and ambient pH shifts extended our understanding of the molecular events possibly involved in the infectious process and resistance to antifungal drugs.

Shallow landslide prediction in the Serra do Mar, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Various methods are currently used in order to predict shallow landslides within the catchment scale. Among them, physically based models present advantages associated with the physical description of processes by means of mathematical equations. The main objective of this research is the prediction of shallow landslides using TRIGRS model, in a pilot catchment located at Serra do Mar mountain range, Sao Paulo State, southeastern Brazil. Susceptibility scenarios have been simulated taking into account different mechanical and hydrological values. These scenarios were analysed based on a landslide scars map from the January 1985 event, upon which two indexes were applied: Scars Concentration (SC - ratio between the number of cells with scars, in each class, and the total number of cells with scars within the catchment) and Landslide Potential (LP - ratio between the number of cells with scars, in each class, and the total number of cells in that same class). The results showed a significant agreement between the simulated scenarios and the scar's map. In unstable areas (SF <= 1), the SC values exceeded 50% in all scenarios. Based on the results, the use of this model should be considered an important tool for shallow landslide prediction, especially in areas where mechanical and hydrological properties of the materials are not well known.

ECG scar quantification correlates with cardiac magnetic resonance scar size and prognostic factors in Chagas' disease

Objective To test the hypothesis that 12-lead ECG QRS scoring quantifies myocardial scar and correlates with disease severity in Chagas' heart disease. Design Patients underwent 12-lead ECG for QRS scoring and cardiac magnetic resonance with late gadolinium enhancement (CMR-LGE) to assess myocardial scar. Setting University of Sao Paulo Medical School, Sao Paulo, Brazil. Patients 44 Seropositive patients with Chagas' disease without a history of myocardial infarction and at low risk for coronary artery disease. Main outcome measures Correlation between QRS score, CMR-LGE scar size and left ventricular ejection fraction. Relation between QRS score, heart failure (HF) class and history of ventricular tachycardia (VT). Results QRS score correlated directly with CMR-LGE scar size (R=0.69, p<0.0001) and inversely with left ventricular ejection fraction (R=-0.54, p=0.0002), which remained significant in the subgroup with conduction defects. Patients with class II or III HF had significantly higher QRS scores than those with class I HF (5.1 +/- 3.4 vs 2.1 +/- 3.1 QRS points (p=0.002)) and patients with a history of VT had significantly higher QRS scores than those without a history of VT (5.3 +/- 3.2% vs 2.6 +/- 3.4 QRS points (p=0.02)). A QRS score >= 2 points had particularly good sensitivity and specificity (95% and 83%, respectively) for prediction of large CMR-LGE, and a QRS score >= 7 points had particularly high specificity (92% and 89%, respectively) for predicting significant left ventricular dysfunction and history of VT. Conclusions The wide availability of 12-lead ECG makes it an attractive screening tool and may enhance clinical risk stratification of patients at risk for more severe, symptomatic Chagas' heart disease.

Clinical outcomes of long-acting injectable risperidone in patients with schizophrenia: six-month follow-up from the Electronic Schizophrenia Treatment Adherence Registry in Latin America

Background: Risperidone long-acting injection (RLAI) has been shown to be efficacious, improve compliance, and increase long-term retention rate on therapy. The aim of this work was to determine the effect of RLAI on clinical outcome and hospitalization rate in patients with schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder enrolled in the electronic Schizophrenia Treatment Adherence Registry in Latin America. Methods: Data were collected at baseline, retrospectively for the 12 months prior to baseline, and prospectively every three months for 24 months. Hospitalization prior to therapy was assessed by a retrospective chart review. Efficacy and functioning were evaluated using Clinical Global Impression of Illness Severity (CGI-S), Personal and Social Performance (PSP), and Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF) scores. Relapse and treatment were also registered. Results: Patients were recruited in Mexico (n = 53), Brazil (n = 11), and Colombia (n = 15). Sixty-five percent (n = 52) were male, and mean age was 32.9 years. Patients were classified as having schizophrenia (n = 73) or schizoaffective disorder (n = 6). The mean dose of RLAI at six months was 34.1 mg (standard deviation = 10.2 mg). The percentage of hospitalized patients before treatment was 28.2% and 5.1% at six months after initiating RLAI (P < 0.001). Significant changes were registered on CGI-S, GAF, and PSP scores. Conclusions: RLAI was associated with an improvement in clinical symptoms and functioning, and a greater reduction in hospitalization.

High Prevalence of Side Effects After Recombinant Human Thyrotropin-Stimulated Radioiodine Treatment with 30 mCi in Patients with Multinodular Goiter and Subclinical/Clinical Hyperthyroidism

Background: Treatment of multinodular goiters (MNGs) is highly controversial. Radioiodine (RAI) therapy is a nonsurgical alternative for the elderly who decline surgery. Recently, recombinant human thyrotropin (rhTSH) has been used to augment RAI uptake and distribution. In this study, we determined the outcome of 30 mCi RAI preceded by rhTSH (0.1 mg) in euthyroid (EU) and hyperthyroid (subclinical/clinical) patients with large MNGs. Methods: This was a prospective cohort study. Forty-two patients (age, 43-80 years) with MNGs were treated with 30 mCi RAI after stimulation with 0.1 mg of rhTSH. Patients were divided into three groups, according to thyroid function: EU (n = 18), subclinically hyperthyroid (SC-H, n = 18), and clinically hyperthyroid (C-H, n = 6). All patients underwent a 90-day low-iodine diet before treatment, and those with clinical hyperthyroidism received methimazole 10 mg daily for 30 days. Serum TSH, free thyroxine (FT4), total triiodothyronine (TT3), and thyroglobulin were measured at baseline and at 24, 48, 72, 168 hours, and 1, 3, 6, 9, 12, 18, 24, and 36 months after therapy. Thyroid volume was assessed by computed tomography at baseline and every 6 months. Results: Patients had high iodine urinary excretion (308 +/- 108 mu g I/L) at baseline. TSH levels at baseline were within the normal range (1.5 +/- 0.7 mu U/mL) in the EU group and suppressed (< 0.3 mu U/mL) in the SC-H and C-H groups. After rhTSH, serum TSH peaked at 24 hours reaching 12.4 +/- 5.85 mu U/mL. After RAI administration, patients in both hyperthyroid groups had a higher increase in FT4 and TT3 compared with those in the EU group (p < 0.001). Thyroglobulin levels increased equally in all three groups until day 7. Thyroid volume decreased significantly in all patients. Side effects were more common in the SC-H and C-H groups (31.4% and 60.4%, respectively) compared with EU patients (17.8%). Permanent hypothyroidism was more prevalent in the EU group (50%) compared with the SC-H (11%) and C-H (16.6%) groups. Conclusions: Patients with MNG may have subclinical and clinical nonautoimmune iodine-induced hyperthyroidism. Despite a low-iodine diet and therapy with methimazole, hyperthyroid patients have a significantly higher increase in FT4 and TT3 levels after RAI ablation. This can lead to important side effects related mostly to the cardiac system. We strongly advise that patients with SC-H and C-H be adequately treated with methimazole and low-iodine diet aiming to normalize their hyperthyroid condition before rhTSH-stimulated treatment with RAI.

Estimating cardiovascular risk in patients with type 2 diabetes: a national multicenter study in Brazil

According to Brazilian National Data Survey diabetes is the fifth cause for hospitalization and is one of the ten major causes of mortality in this country. Aims to stratify the estimated cardiovascular risk (eCVR) in a population of type 2 diabetics (T2DM) according to the Framingham prediction equations as well as to determine the association between eCVR with metabolic and clinical control of the disease. Methods From 2000 to 2001 a cross-sectional multicenter study was conducted in 13 public out-patients diabetes/endocrinology clinics from 8 Brazilian cities. The 10-year risk of developing coronary heart disease (CHD) was estimated by the prediction equations described by Wilson et al (Circulation 1998). LDL equations were preferably used; when patients missed LDL data we used total cholesterol equations instead. Results Data from 1382 patients (59.0% female) were analyzed. Median and inter-quartile range (IQ) of age and duration of diabetes were 57.4 (51-65) and 8.8 (3-13) years, respectively without differences according to the gender. Forty-two percent of these patients were overweight and 35.4% were obese (the prevalence of higher BMI and obesity in this T2DM group was significantly higher in women than in men; p < 0.001). The overall estimated eCVR in T2DM patients was 21.4 (13.5-31.3). The eCVR was high (> 20%) in 738 (53.4%), intermediate in 202 (14.6%) and low in 442 (32%) patients. Men [25.1(15.4-37.3)] showed a higher eCVR than women [18.8 (12.4-27.9) p < 0.001]. The most common risk factor was high LDL-cholesterol (80.8%), most frequently found in women than in men (p = 0.01). The median of risk factors present was three (2-4) without gender differences. Overall we observed that 60 (4.3%) of our patients had none, 154(11.1%) one, 310 (22.4%) two, 385 (27.9%) three, 300 (21.7%) four, 149 (10.5%) five and six, (2%) six risk factors. A higher eCVR was noted in overweight or obese patients (p = 0.01 for both groups). No association was found between eCVR with age or a specific type of diabetes treatment. A correlation was found between eCVR and duration of diabetes (p < 0.001), BMI (p < 0.001), creatinine (p < 0.001) and triglycerides levels (p < 0.001) but it was not found with HbA1c, fasting blood glucose and postprandial glucose. A higher eCVR was observed in patients with retinopathy (p < 0.001) and a tendency in patients with microalbuminuria (p = 0.06). Conclusion: our study showed that in this group of Brazilian T2DM the eCVR was correlated with the lipid profile and it was higher in patients with microvascular chronic complications. No correlation was found with glycemic control parameters. These data could explain the failure of intensive glycemic control programs aiming to reduce cardiovascular events observed in some studies.

TCF7L2 variant genotypes and type 2 diabetes risk in Brazil: significant association, but not a significant tool for risk stratification in the general population

Background: Genetic polymorphisms of the TCF7L2 gene are strongly associated with large increments in type 2 diabetes risk in different populations worldwide. In this study, we aimed to confirm the effect of the TCF7L2 polymorphism rs7903146 on diabetes risk in a Brazilian population and to assess the use of this genetic marker in improving diabetes risk prediction in the general population. Methods: We genotyped the single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) rs7903146 of the TCF7L2 gene in 560 patients with known coronary disease enrolled in the MASS II (Medicine, Angioplasty, or Surgery Study) Trial and in 1,449 residents of Vitoria, in Southeast Brazil. The associations of this gene variant to diabetes risk and metabolic characteristics in these two different populations were analyzed. To access the potential benefit of using this marker for diabetes risk prediction in the general population we analyzed the impact of this genetic variant on a validated diabetes risk prediction tool based on clinical characteristics developed for the Brazilian general population. Results: SNP rs7903146 of the TCF7L2 gene was significantly associated with type 2 diabetes in the MASS-II population (OR = 1.57 per T allele, p = 0.0032), confirming, in the Brazilian population, previous reports of the literature. Addition of this polymorphism to an established clinical risk prediction score did not increased model accuracy (both area under ROC curve equal to 0.776). Conclusion: TCF7L2 rs7903146 T allele is associated with a 1.57 increased risk for type 2 diabetes in a Brazilian cohort of patients with known coronary heart disease. However, the inclusion of this polymorphism in a risk prediction tool developed for the general population resulted in no improvement of performance. This is the first study, to our knowledge, that has confirmed this recent association in a South American population and adds to the great consistency of this finding in studies around the world. Finally, confirming the biological association of a genetic marker does not guarantee improvement on already established screening tools based solely on demographic variables.

Mucin pattern reflects the origin of the adenocarcinoma in Barrett's esophagus: a retrospective clinical and laboratorial study

Background: Mucin immunoexpression in adenocarcinoma arising in Barrett's esophagus (BE) may indicate the carcinogenesis pathway. The aim of this study was to evaluate resected specimens of adenocarcinoma in BE for the pattern of mucins and to correlate to the histologic classification. Methods: Specimens were retrospectively collected from thirteen patients who underwent esophageal resection due to adenocarcinoma in BE. Sections were scored for the grade of intestinal metaplasia. The tissues were examined by immunohistochemistry for MUC2 and MUC5AC antibodies. Results: Eleven patients were men. The mean age was 61 years old (varied from 40 to 75 years old). The tumor size had a mean of 4.7 +/- 2.3 cm, and the extension of BE had a mean of 7.7 +/- 1.5 cm. Specialized epithelium with intestinal metaplasia was present in all adjacent mucosas. Immunohistochemistry for MUC2 showed immunoreactivity in goblet cells, while MUC5AC was extensively expressed in the columnar gastric cells, localizing to the surface epithelium and extending to a variable degree into the glandular structures in BE. Tumors were classified according to the mucins in gastric type in 7/13 (MUC5AC positive) and intestinal type in 4/13 (MUC2 positive). Two tumors did not express MUC2 or MUC5AC proteins. The pattern of mucin predominantly expressed in the adjacent epithelium was associated to the mucin expression profile in the tumors, p = 0.047. Conclusion: Barrett's esophagus adenocarcinoma shows either gastric or intestinal type pattern of mucin expression. The two types of tumors developed in Barrett's esophagus may reflect the original cell type involved in the malignant transformation.

Age of Child, More than HPV Type, Is Associated with Clinical Course in Recurrent Respiratory Papillomatosis

Background: RRP is a devastating disease in which papillomas in the airway cause hoarseness and breathing difficulty. The disease is caused by human papillomavirus (HPV) 6 or 11 and is very variable. Patients undergo multiple surgeries to maintain a patent airway and in order to communicate vocally. Several small studies have been published in which most have noted that HPV 11 is associated with a more aggressive course. Methodology/Principal Findings: Papilloma biopsies were taken from patients undergoing surgical treatment of RRP and were subjected to HPV typing. 118 patients with juvenile-onset RRP with at least 1 year of clinical data and infected with a single HPV type were analyzed. HPV 11 was encountered in 40% of the patients. By our definition, most of the patients in the sample (81%) had run an aggressive course. The odds of a patient with HPV 11 running an aggressive course were 3.9 times higher than that of patients with HPV 6 (Fisher's exact p = 0.017). However, clinical course was more closely associated with age of the patient (at diagnosis and at the time of the current surgery) than with HPV type. Patients with HPV 11 were diagnosed at a younger age (2.4y) than were those with HPV 6 (3.4y) (p = 0.014). Both by multiple linear regression and by multiple logistic regression HPV type was only weakly associated with metrics of disease course when simultaneously accounting for age. Conclusions/Significance Abstract: The course of RRP is variable and a quarter of the variability can be accounted for by the age of the patient. HPV 11 is more closely associated with a younger age at diagnosis than it is associated with an aggressive clinical course. These data suggest that there are factors other than HPV type and age of the patient that determine disease course.

A survey on clinical presentation and nutritional status of infants with suspected cow' milk allergy

Background: Cow's milk is the most common food allergen in infants and the diagnosis of cow's milk allergy is difficult, even with the use of several diagnostic tests. Therefore, elimination diets and challenge tests are essential for the diagnosis and treatment of this disorder. The aim of this study is to report the clinical presentation and nutritional status of children evaluated by pediatric gastroenterologists for the assessment of symptoms suggestive of cow's milk allergy. Methods: An observational cross-sectional study was performed among 9,478 patients evaluated by 30 pediatric gastroenterologists for 40 days in 5 different geographical regions in Brazil. Clinical data were collected from patients with symptoms suggestive of cow's milk allergy. The nutritional status of infants (age <= 24 months) seen for the first time was evaluated according to z-scores for weight-for-age, weight-for-height, and height-for-age. Epi-Info (CDC-NCHS, 2000) software was used to calculate z-scores. Results: The prevalence of suspected cow's milk allergy in the study population was 5.4% (513/9,478), and the incidence was 2.2% (211/9,478). Among 159 infants seen at first evaluation, 15.1% presented with a low weight-for-age z score (< -2.0 standard deviation - SD), 8.7% with a low weight-for-height z score (< -2.0 SD), and 23.9% with a low height-for-age z score (< -2.0 SD). Conclusion: The high prevalence of nutritional deficits among infants with symptoms suggestive of cow's milk allergy indicates that effective elimination diets should be prescribed to control allergy symptoms and to prevent or treat malnutrition.

Qualitative Analysis of the Interdisciplinary Interaction between Data Analysis Specialists and Novice Clinical Researchers

Background: The inherent complexity of statistical methods and clinical phenomena compel researchers with diverse domains of expertise to work in interdisciplinary teams, where none of them have a complete knowledge in their counterpart's field. As a result, knowledge exchange may often be characterized by miscommunication leading to misinterpretation, ultimately resulting in errors in research and even clinical practice. Though communication has a central role in interdisciplinary collaboration and since miscommunication can have a negative impact on research processes, to the best of our knowledge, no study has yet explored how data analysis specialists and clinical researchers communicate over time. Methods/Principal Findings: We conducted qualitative analysis of encounters between clinical researchers and data analysis specialists (epidemiologist, clinical epidemiologist, and data mining specialist). These encounters were recorded and systematically analyzed using a grounded theory methodology for extraction of emerging themes, followed by data triangulation and analysis of negative cases for validation. A policy analysis was then performed using a system dynamics methodology looking for potential interventions to improve this process. Four major emerging themes were found. Definitions using lay language were frequently employed as a way to bridge the language gap between the specialties. Thought experiments presented a series of ""what if'' situations that helped clarify how the method or information from the other field would behave, if exposed to alternative situations, ultimately aiding in explaining their main objective. Metaphors and analogies were used to translate concepts across fields, from the unfamiliar to the familiar. Prolepsis was used to anticipate study outcomes, thus helping specialists understand the current context based on an understanding of their final goal. Conclusion/Significance: The communication between clinical researchers and data analysis specialists presents multiple challenges that can lead to errors.