78 resultados para Bayesian phase I dose finding


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Vandetanib (ZACTIMA(TM)) is a once-daily oral anticancer drug that selectively inhibits vascular endothelial growth factor receptor, epidermal growth factor receptor, and rearranged during transfection signaling. This randomized (1: 1), double-blind study evaluated vandetanib (100mg/day) or placebo in combination with docetaxel (D; 75mg/m(2) every 3 weeks) and prednisolone (P; 2 x 5 mg/day) in 86 patients with metastatic hormone-refractory prostate cancer (mHRPC). The primary assessment was prostate-specific antigen (PSA) response (confirmed reduction of >= 50% from baseline) and a greater number of patients showed a PSA response with placebo + DP (67%) versus vandetanib + DP (40%); hazard ratio = 2.23 (one-sided 80% confidence limit = 2.90; one-sided p = 0.99). More patients experienced progression events (disease progression or death from any cause) with vandetanib + DP (65%) versus placebo + DP (60%); hazard ratio = 1.13 (one-sided 80% confidence limit = 1.44; one-sided p = 0.67). The overall incidence of adverse events was similar in both groups, although more patients experienced adverse events, leading to permanent discontinuation with vandetanib + DP (28%) versus placebo + DP (12%). However, the safety and tolerability profile for vandetanib was similar to that previously reported; adverse events that occurred more frequently in the vandetanib + DP arm were hypertension (14% vs. 2%), erythematous rash (14% vs. 2%), and exfoliative rash (12% vs. 2%). In this study of patients with mHRPC, vandetanib + DP did not demonstrate any efficacy benefit, compared with placebo + DP.

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We report the discovery of a tight substellar companion to the young solar analog PZ Tel, a member of the beta Pic moving group observed with high-contrast adaptive optics imaging as part of the Gemini Near-Infrared Coronagraphic Imager Planet-Finding Campaign. The companion was detected at a projected separation of 16.4 +/- 1.0 AU (0.'' 33 +/- 0.'' 01) in 2009 April. Second-epoch observations in 2010 May demonstrate that the companion is physically associated and shows significant orbital motion. Monte Carlo modeling constrains the orbit of PZ Tel B to eccentricities >0.6. The near-IR colors of PZ Tel B indicate a spectral type of M7 +/- 2 and thus this object will be a new benchmark companion for studies of ultracool, low-gravity photospheres. Adopting an age of 12(-4)(+8) Myr for the system, we estimate a mass of 36 +/- 6 M(Jup) based on the Lyon/DUSTY evolutionary models. PZ Tel B is one of the few young substellar companions directly imaged at orbital separations similar to those of giant planets in our own solar system. Additionally, the primary star PZ Tel A shows a 70 mu m emission excess, evidence for a significant quantity of circumstellar dust that has not been disrupted by the orbital motion of the companion.

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Context. Emission lines formed in decretion disks of Be stars often undergo long-term cyclic variations, especially in the violet-to-red (V/R) ratio of their primary components. The underlying structural and dynamical variations of the disks are only partly understood. From observations of the bright Be-shell star. Tau, the possibly broadest and longest data set illustrating the prototype of this behaviour was compiled from our own and archival observations. It comprises optical and infrared spectra, broad-band polarimetry, and interferometric observations. Aims. The dense, long-time monitoring permits a better separation of repetitive and ephemeral variations. The broad wavelength coverage includes lines formed under different physical conditions, i.e. different locations in the disk, so that the dynamics can be probed throughout much of the disk. Polarimetry and interferometry constrain the spatial structure. All together, the objective is a better understand the dynamics and life cycle of decretion disks. Methods. Standard methods of data acquisition, reduction, and analysis were applied. Results. From 3 V/R cycles between 1997 and 2008, a mean cycle length in Ha of 1400-1430 days was derived. After each minimum in V/R, the shell absorption weakens and splits into two components, leading to 3 emission peaks. This phase may make the strongest contribution to the variability in cycle length. There is no obvious connection between the V/R cycle and the 133-day orbital period of the not otherwise detected companion. V/R curves of different lines are shifted in phase. Lines formed on average closer to the central star are ahead of the others. The shell absorption lines fall into 2 categories differing in line width, ionization/excitation potential, and variability of the equivalent width. They seem to form in separate regions of the disk, probably crossing the line of sight at different times. The interferometry has resolved the continuum and the line emission in Br gamma and HeI 2.06. The phasing of the Br gamma emission shows that the photocenter of the line-emitting region lies within the plane of the disk but is offset from the continuum source. The plane of the disk is constant throughout the observed V/R cycles. The observations lay the foundation for the fully self-consistent, one-armed, disk-oscillation model developed in Paper II.

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The Amazon Basin provides an excellent environment for studying the sources, transformations, and properties of natural aerosol particles and the resulting links between biological processes and climate. With this framework in mind, the Amazonian Aerosol Characterization Experiment (AMAZE-08), carried out from 7 February to 14 March 2008 during the wet season in the central Amazon Basin, sought to understand the formation, transformations, and cloud-forming properties of fine-and coarse-mode biogenic aerosol particles, especially as related to their effects on cloud activation and regional climate. Special foci included (1) the production mechanisms of secondary organic components at a pristine continental site, including the factors regulating their temporal variability, and (2) predicting and understanding the cloud-forming properties of biogenic particles at such a site. In this overview paper, the field site and the instrumentation employed during the campaign are introduced. Observations and findings are reported, including the large-scale context for the campaign, especially as provided by satellite observations. New findings presented include: (i) a particle number-diameter distribution from 10 nm to 10 mu m that is representative of the pristine tropical rain forest and recommended for model use; (ii) the absence of substantial quantities of primary biological particles in the submicron mode as evidenced by mass spectral characterization; (iii) the large-scale production of secondary organic material; (iv) insights into the chemical and physical properties of the particles as revealed by thermodenuder-induced changes in the particle number-diameter distributions and mass spectra; and (v) comparisons of ground-based predictions and satellite-based observations of hydrometeor phase in clouds. A main finding of AMAZE-08 is the dominance of secondary organic material as particle components. The results presented here provide mechanistic insight and quantitative parameters that can serve to increase the accuracy of models of the formation, transformations, and cloud-forming properties of biogenic natural aerosol particles, especially as related to their effects on cloud activation and regional climate.

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Crystal structure of compositionally homogeneous, nanocrystalline ZrO2-CeO2 solutions was investigated by X-ray powder diffraction as a function of temperature for compositions between 50 and 65 mol % CeO2 center dot ZrO2-50 and 60 mol % CeO2 solid solutions, which exhibit the t'-form of the tetragonal phase at room temperature, transform into the cubic phase in two steps: t'-to-t '' followed by t ''-to-cubic. But the ZrO2-65 mol % CeO2, which exhibits the t ''-form, transforms directly to the cubic phase. The results suggest that t'-to-t '' transition is of first order, but t ''-to-cubic seems to be of second order. (C) 2008 International Centre for Diffraction Data.

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Cloud-aerosol interaction is a key issue in the climate system, affecting the water cycle, the weather, and the total energy balance including the spatial and temporal distribution of latent heat release. Information on the vertical distribution of cloud droplet microphysics and thermodynamic phase as a function of temperature or height, can be correlated with details of the aerosol field to provide insight on how these particles are affecting cloud properties and their consequences to cloud lifetime, precipitation, water cycle, and general energy balance. Unfortunately, today's experimental methods still lack the observational tools that can characterize the true evolution of the cloud microphysical, spatial and temporal structure in the cloud droplet scale, and then link these characteristics to environmental factors and properties of the cloud condensation nuclei. Here we propose and demonstrate a new experimental approach (the cloud scanner instrument) that provides the microphysical information missed in current experiments and remote sensing options. Cloud scanner measurements can be performed from aircraft, ground, or satellite by scanning the side of the clouds from the base to the top, providing us with the unique opportunity of obtaining snapshots of the cloud droplet microphysical and thermodynamic states as a function of height and brightness temperature in clouds at several development stages. The brightness temperature profile of the cloud side can be directly associated with the thermodynamic phase of the droplets to provide information on the glaciation temperature as a function of different ambient conditions, aerosol concentration, and type. An aircraft prototype of the cloud scanner was built and flew in a field campaign in Brazil. The CLAIM-3D (3-Dimensional Cloud Aerosol Interaction Mission) satellite concept proposed here combines several techniques to simultaneously measure the vertical profile of cloud microphysics, thermodynamic phase, brightness temperature, and aerosol amount and type in the neighborhood of the clouds. The wide wavelength range, and the use of multi-angle polarization measurements proposed for this mission allow us to estimate the availability and characteristics of aerosol particles acting as cloud condensation nuclei, and their effects on the cloud microphysical structure. These results can provide unprecedented details on the response of cloud droplet microphysics to natural and anthropogenic aerosols in the size scale where the interaction really happens.

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NiCl(2)-4SC(NH(2))(2) (known as DTN) is a spin-1 material with a strong single-ion anisotropy that is regarded as a new candidate for Bose-Einstein condensation (BEC) of spin degrees of freedom. We present a systematic study of the low-energy excitation spectrum of DTN in the field-induced magnetically ordered phase by means of high-field electron spin resonance measurements at temperatures down to 0.45 K. We argue that two gapped modes observed in the experiment can be consistently interpreted within a four-sublattice antiferromagnet model with a finite interaction between two tetragonal subsystems and unbroken axial symmetry. The latter is crucial for the interpretation of the field-induced ordering in DTN in terms of BEC.

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In this work, we employed the effective coordination concept to study the local environments of the Ge, Sb, and Te atoms in the Ge(m)Sb(2n)Te(m+3n) compounds. From our calculations and analysis, we found an average effective coordination number (ECN) reduction of 1.59, 1.42, and 1.37, for the Ge, Sb, Te atoms in the phase transition from crystalline, ECN=5.55 (Ge), 5.73 (Sb), 4.37 (Te), to the amorphous phase, ECN=3.96 (Ge), 4.31 (Sb), 3.09 (Te), for the Ge(2)Sb(2)Te(5) composition. Similar changes are observed for other compositions. Thus, our results indicate that the coordination changes from the crystalline to amorphous phase are not large as previously assumed in the literature, i.e., from sixfold to fourfold for Ge, which can contribute to obtain a better understanding of the crystalline to amorphous phase transition. (C) 2011 American Institute of Physics. [doi:10.1063/1.3533422]

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Chagas disease is still a major public health problem in Latin America. Its causative agent, Trypanosoma cruzi, can be typed into three major groups, T. cruzi I, T. cruzi II and hybrids. These groups each have specific genetic characteristics and epidemiological distributions. Several highly virulent strains are found in the hybrid group; their origin is still a matter of debate. The null hypothesis is that the hybrids are of polyphyletic origin, evolving independently from various hybridization events. The alternative hypothesis is that all extant hybrid strains originated from a single hybridization event. We sequenced both alleles of genes encoding EF-1 alpha, actin and SSU rDNA of 26 T. cruzi strains and DHFR-TS and TR of 12 strains. This information was used for network genealogy analysis and Bayesian phylogenies. We found T. cruzi I and T. cruzi II to be monophyletic and that all hybrids had different combinations of T. cruzi I and T. cruzi II haplotypes plus hybrid-specific haplotypes. Bootstrap values (networks) and posterior probabilities (Bayesian phylogenies) of clades supporting the monophyly of hybrids were far below the 95% confidence interval, indicating that the hybrid group is polyphyletic. We hypothesize that T. cruzi I and T. cruzi II are two different species and that the hybrids are extant representatives of independent events of genome hybridization, which sporadically have sufficient fitness to impact on the epidemiology of Chagas disease.

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Here, I investigate the use of Bayesian updating rules applied to modeling how social agents change their minds in the case of continuous opinion models. Given another agent statement about the continuous value of a variable, we will see that interesting dynamics emerge when an agent assigns a likelihood to that value that is a mixture of a Gaussian and a uniform distribution. This represents the idea that the other agent might have no idea about what is being talked about. The effect of updating only the first moments of the distribution will be studied, and we will see that this generates results similar to those of the bounded confidence models. On also updating the second moment, several different opinions always survive in the long run, as agents become more stubborn with time. However, depending on the probability of error and initial uncertainty, those opinions might be clustered around a central value.

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This study aimed to investigate the effects of physical training, and different levels of protein intake in the diet, on the growth and nutritional status of growing rats. Newly-weaned Wistar rats (n=48) were distributed into six experimental groups: three of them were subjected to physical swim training (1 h per day. 5 d per week, for 4 wk, after 2 wk of familiarization) and the other three were considered as controls (non-trained). Each pair of groups, trained and non-trained, received diets with a different level of protein in their composition: 14%. 21% or 28%. The animals were euthanized at the end of the training period and the following analyses were performed: proteoglycan synthesis as a biomarker of bone and cartilage growth, IGF-I (insulin-like growth factor-I) assay as a biomarker of growth and nutritional status. total RNA and protein concentration and protein synthesis measured in vivo using a large-dose phenylalanine method. As a main finding, increased dietary protein, combined with physical training, was able to improve neither tissue protein synthesis nor muscle growth. In addition, cartilage and bone growth seem to be deteriorated by the lower and the higher levels of protein intake. Our data allow us to conclude that protein enhancement in the diet, combined with physical exercise, does not stimulate tissue protein synthesis or muscle mass growth. Furthermore, physical training, combined with low protein intake, was not favorable to bone development in growing animals.

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As the patient`s treatment progresses, symptoms start to disappear and he or she becomes more familiar with the treatment. The standards in this section focus on the types of elements that need to be considered as the patient progresses from the intensive to the continuation phase of tuberculosis (TB) treatment, leading to less contact with the TB service and a resumption of `normal` activities. Social and psychological as well as physical factors need to be assessed to plan effective care and treatment for the continuation phase. Treatment for TB takes a minimum of 6 months, during which changes to the regimen and personal changes associated with making a recovery can create barriers to continuation of treatment. Lifestyle and other changes that may occur during 6 months of anybody`s life can complicate or be complicated by TB treatment. The patient may move to another location at any point during the course of treatment, in which case it may be necessary to transfer his or her care to another TB management unit. This process needs to be carefully managed to maintain contact with the patient and avoid any break in treatment; this is covered by the third standard in this chapter.

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The standards in this chapter focus on maximising the patient`s ability to adhere to the treatment prescribed. Many people are extremely shocked when they are told they have TB, some refuse to accept it and others are relieved to find out what is wrong and that treatment is available. The reaction depends on many factors, including cultural beliefs and values, previous experience and knowledge of the disease. Even though TB is more common among vulnerable groups, it can affect anyone and it is important for patients to be able to discuss their concerns in relation to their own individual context. The cure for TB relies on the patient receiving a full, uninterrupted course of treatment, which can only be achieved if the patient and the health service work together. A system needs to be in place to trace patients who miss their appointments for treatment (late patients). The best success will be achieved through the use of flexible, innovative and individualised approaches. The treatment and care the patient has received will inevitably have an impact on his or her willingness to attend in the future. A well-defined system of late patient tracing is mandatory in all situations. However, when the rates are high (above 10%), any tracing system will be useless without also examining the service as a whole.

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In this paper, a novel wire-mesh sensor based on permittivity (capacitance) measurements is applied to generate images of the phase fraction distribution and investigate the flow of viscous oil and water in a horizontal pipe. Phase fraction values were calculated from the raw data delivered by the wire-mesh sensor using different mixture permittivity models. Furthermore, these data were validated against quick-closing valve measurements. Investigated flow patterns were dispersion of oil in water (Do/w) and dispersion of oil in water and water in oil (Do/w&w/o). The Maxwell-Garnett mixing model is better suited for Dw/o and the logarithmic model for Do/w&w/o flow pattern. Images of the time-averaged cross-sectional oil fraction distribution along with axial slice images were used to visualize and disclose some details of the flow.

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Recently semi-empirical models to estimate flow boiling heat transfer coefficient, saturated CHF and pressure drop in micro-scale channels have been proposed. Most of the models were developed based on elongated bubbles and annular flows in the view of the fact that these flow patterns are predominant in smaller channels. In these models, the liquid film thickness plays an important role and such a fact emphasizes that the accurate measurement of the liquid film thickness is a key point to validate them. On the other hand, several techniques have been successfully applied to measure liquid film thicknesses during condensation and evaporation under macro-scale conditions. However, although this subject has been targeted by several leading laboratories around the world, it seems that there is no conclusive result describing a successful technique capable of measuring dynamic liquid film thickness during evaporation inside micro-scale round channels. This work presents a comprehensive literature review of the methods used to measure liquid film thickness in macro- and micro-scale systems. The methods are described and the main difficulties related to their use in micro-scale systems are identified. Based on this discussion, the most promising methods to measure dynamic liquid film thickness in micro-scale channels are identified. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.