52 resultados para wave forecasting


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Surface heat treatment in glasses and ceramics, using CO(2) lasers, has attracted the attention of several researchers around the world due to its impact in technological applications, such as lab-on-a-chip devices, diffraction gratings and microlenses. Microlens fabrication on a glass surface has been studied mainly due to its importance in optical devices (fiber coupling, CCD signal enhancement, etc). The goal of this work is to present a systematic study of the conditions for microlens fabrications, along with the viability of using microlens arrays, recorded on the glass surface, as bidimensional codes for product identification. This would allow the production of codes without any residues (like the fine powder generated by laser ablation) and resistance to an aggressive environment, such as sterilization processes. The microlens arrays were fabricated using a continuous wave CO(2) laser, focused on the surface of flat commercial soda-lime silicate glass substrates. The fabrication conditions were studied based on laser power, heating time and microlens profiles. A He-Ne laser was used as a light source in a qualitative experiment to test the viability of using the microlenses as bidimensional codes.

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Mass transfer across a gas-liquid interface was studied theoretically and experimentally, using transfer of oxygen into water as the gas-liquid system. The experimental results support the conclusions of a theoretical description of the concentration field that uses random square waves approximations. The effect of diffusion over the concentration records was quantified. It is shown that the peak of the normalized rills concentration fluctuation profiles must be lower than 0.5, and that the position of the peak of the rms value is an adequate measure of the thickness of the diffusive layer. The position of the peak is the boundary between the regions more subject to molecular diffusion or to turbulent transport of dissolved mass.

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A thermodynamic approach to predict bulk glass-forming compositions in binary metallic systems was recently proposed. In this approach. the parameter gamma* = Delta H-amor/(Delta H-inter - Delta H-amor) indicates the glass-forming ability (GFA) from the standpoint of the driving force to form different competing phases, and Delta H-amor and Delta H-inter are the enthalpies for-lass and intermetallic formation, respectively. Good glass-forming compositions should have a large negative enthalpy for glass formation and a very small difference for intermetallic formation, thus making the glassy phase easily reachable even under low cooling rates. The gamma* parameter showed a good correlation with GFA experimental data in the Ni-Nb binary system. In this work, a simple extension of the gamma* parameter is applied in the ternary Al-Ni-Y system. The calculated gamma* isocontours in the ternary diagram are compared with experimental results of glass formation in that system. Despite sonic misfitting, the best glass formers are found quite close to the highest gamma* values, leading to the conclusion that this thermodynamic approach can lie extended to ternary systems, serving as a useful tool for the development of new glass-forming compositions. Finally the thermodynamic approach is compared with the topological instability criteria used to predict the thermal behavior of glassy Al alloys. (C) 2007 Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.

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The paper is devoted to an experimental study of the effect of a shallow 3D roughness element on the evolution of a 2D Tollmien-Schlichting wave in a Blasius boundary layer. The experiments were carried out under controlled disturbance conditions on an airfoil section which could provide a long run with zero pressure gradient flow. A pneumatically driven slit source was used to introduce the Tollmien-Schilichting wave upstream of the lower branch of the neutral stability curve. A few wavelengths downstream, the T-S wave interacts with a cylindrical roughness element. The height of the roughness was slowly oscillating in time, which allows a continuous measurement of the T-S wave response downstream the roughness. The oscillation frequency was approximately 1500 times lower than the frequency of the studied Tollmien-Schlichting wave and therefore, behaved as a steady roughness with respect to the T-S wave. Hot wire anemometry was used to measure wall normal profiles and spanwise scans close to the maximum of the eigenfunction of the T-S wave. The oscillation of the roughness and the synchronization of all-equipments permitted the use of ensemble average techniques. Two different amplitudes of T-S waves with a non-dimensional frequency of F120E-06 were studied. They show a strong amplification of the disturbances in a small spanwise wave number range. The analysis of the wall normal T-S profiles suggests the growth of oblique modes.

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In this paper, a comparative analysis of the long-term electric power forecasting methodologies used in some South American countries, is presented. The purpose of this study is to compare and observe if such methodologies have some similarities, and also examine the behavior of the results when they are applied to the Brazilian electric market. The abovementioned power forecasts were performed regarding the main four consumption classes (residential, industrial, commercial and rural) which are responsible for approximately 90% of the national consumption. The tool used in this analysis was the SAS (c) program. The outcome of this study allowed identifying various methodological similarities, mainly those related to the econometric variables used by these methods. This fact strongly conditioned the comparative results obtained.

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There are several ways to attempt to model a building and its heat gains from external sources as well as internal ones in order to evaluate a proper operation, audit retrofit actions, and forecast energy consumption. Different techniques, varying from simple regression to models that are based on physical principles, can be used for simulation. A frequent hypothesis for all these models is that the input variables should be based on realistic data when they are available, otherwise the evaluation of energy consumption might be highly under or over estimated. In this paper, a comparison is made between a simple model based on artificial neural network (ANN) and a model that is based on physical principles (EnergyPlus) as an auditing and predicting tool in order to forecast building energy consumption. The Administration Building of the University of Sao Paulo is used as a case study. The building energy consumption profiles are collected as well as the campus meteorological data. Results show that both models are suitable for energy consumption forecast. Additionally, a parametric analysis is carried out for the considered building on EnergyPlus in order to evaluate the influence of several parameters such as the building profile occupation and weather data on such forecasting. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Real-time viscosity measurement remains a necessity for highly automated industry. To resolve this problem, many studies have been carried out using an ultrasonic shear wave reflectance method. This method is based on the determination of the complex reflection coefficient`s magnitude and phase at the solid-liquid interface. Although magnitude is a stable quantity and its measurement is relatively simple and precise, phase measurement is a difficult task because of strong temperature dependence. A simplified method that uses only the magnitude of the reflection coefficient and that is valid under the Newtonian regimen has been proposed by some authors, but the obtained viscosity values do not match conventional viscometry measurements. In this work, a mode conversion measurement cell was used to measure glycerin viscosity as a function of temperature (15 to 25 degrees C) and corn syrup-water mixtures as a function of concentration (70 to 100 wt% of corn syrup). Tests were carried out at 1 MHz. A novel signal processing technique that calculates the reflection coefficient magnitude in a frequency band, instead of a single frequency, was studied. The effects of the bandwidth on magnitude and viscosity were analyzed and the results were compared with the values predicted by the Newtonian liquid model. The frequency band technique improved the magnitude results. The obtained viscosity values came close to those measured by the rotational viscometer with percentage errors up to 14%, whereas errors up to 96% were found for the single frequency method.

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Welded equipment for cryogenic applications is utilized in chemical, petrochemical, and metallurgical industries. One material suitable for cryogenic application is austenitic stainless steel, which usually doesn`t present ductile/brittle transition temperature, except in the weld metal, where the presence of ferrite and micro inclusions can promote a brittle failure, either by ferrite cleavage or dimple nucleation and growth, respectively. A 25-mm- (1-in.-) thick AISI 304 stainless steel base metal was welded with the SAW process using a 308L solid wire and two kinds of fluxes and constant voltage power sources with two types of electrical outputs: direct current electrode positive and balanced square wave alternating current. The welded joints were analyzed by chemical composition, microstructure characterization, room temperature mechanical properties, and CVN impact test at -100 degrees C (-73 degrees F). Results showed that an increase of chromium and nickel content was observed in all weld beads compared to base metal. The chromium and nickel equivalents ratio for the weld beads were always higher for welding with square wave AC for the two types of fluxes than for direct current. The modification in the Cr(eq)/Ni(eq) ratio changes the delta ferrite morphology and, consequently, modifies the weld bead toughness at lower temperatures. The oxygen content can also affect the toughness in the weld bead. The highest absorbed energy in a CVN impact test was obtained for the welding condition with square wave AC electrical output and neutral flux, followed by DC(+) electrical output and neutral flux, and square wave AC electrical output and alloyed flux.

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The practicability of estimating directional wave spectra based on a vessel`s 1st order response has been recently addressed by several researchers. Different alternatives regarding statistical inference methods and possible drawbacks that could arise from their application have been extensively discussed, with an apparent preference for estimations based on Bayesian inference algorithms. Most of the results on this matter, however, rely exclusively on numerical simulations or at best on few and sparse full-scale measurements, comprising a questionable basis for validation purposes. This paper discusses several issues that have recently been debated regarding the advantages of Bayesian inference and different alternatives for its implementation. Among those are the definition of the best set of input motions, the number of parameters required for guaranteeing smoothness of the spectrum in frequency and direction and how to determine their optimum values. These subjects are addressed in the light of an extensive experimental campaign performed with a small-scale model of an FPSO platform (VLCC hull), which was conducted in an ocean basin in Brazil. Tests involved long and short crested seas with variable levels of directional spreading and also bimodal conditions. The calibration spectra measured in the tank by means of an array of wave probes configured the paradigm for estimations. Results showed that a wide range of sea conditions could be estimated with good precision, even those with somewhat low peak periods. Some possible drawbacks that have been pointed out in previous works concerning the viability of employing large vessels for such a task are then refuted. Also, it is shown that a second parameter for smoothing the spectrum in frequency may indeed increase the accuracy in some situations, although the criterion usually proposed for estimating the optimum values (ABIC) demands large computational effort and does not seem adequate for practical on-board systems, which require expeditious estimations. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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In this paper, 2 different approaches for estimating the directional wave spectrum based on a vessel`s 1st-order motions are discussed, and their predictions are compared to those provided by a wave buoy. The real-scale data were obtained in an extensive monitoring campaign based on an FPSO unit operating at Campos Basin, Brazil. Data included vessel motions, heading and tank loadings. Wave field information was obtained by means of a heave-pitch-roll buoy installed in the vicinity of the unit. `two of the methods most widely used for this kind of analysis are considered, one based on Bayesian statistical inference, the other consisting of a parametrical representation of the wave spectrum. The performance of both methods is compared, and their sensitivity to input parameters is discussed. This analysis complements a set of previous validations based on numerical and towing-tank results and allows for a preliminary evaluation of reliability when applying the methodology at full scale.

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Accurate price forecasting for agricultural commodities can have significant decision-making implications for suppliers, especially those of biofuels, where the agriculture and energy sectors intersect. Environmental pressures and high oil prices affect demand for biofuels and have reignited the discussion about effects on food prices. Suppliers in the sugar-alcohol sector need to decide the ideal proportion of ethanol and sugar to optimise their financial strategy. Prices can be affected by exogenous factors, such as exchange rates and interest rates, as well as non-observable variables like the convenience yield, which is related to supply shortages. The literature generally uses two approaches: artificial neural networks (ANNs), which are recognised as being in the forefront of exogenous-variable analysis, and stochastic models such as the Kalman filter, which is able to account for non-observable variables. This article proposes a hybrid model for forecasting the prices of agricultural commodities that is built upon both approaches and is applied to forecast the price of sugar. The Kalman filter considers the structure of the stochastic process that describes the evolution of prices. Neural networks allow variables that can impact asset prices in an indirect, nonlinear way, what cannot be incorporated easily into traditional econometric models.

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This article analysed scenarios for Brazilian consumption of ethanol for the period 2006 to 2012. The results show that if the country`s GDP sustains a 4.6% a year growth, domestic consumption of fuel ethanol could increase to 25.16 billion liters in this period, which is a volume relatively close to the forecasted gasoline consumption of 31 billion liters. At a lower GDP growth of 1.22% a year, gasoline consumption would be reduced and domestic ethanol consumption in Brazil would be no higher than 18.32 billion liters. Contrary to the current situation, forecasts indicated that hydrated ethanol consumption could become much higher than anhydrous consumption in Brazil. The former is being consumed in cars moved exclusively by ethanol and flex-fuel cars, successfully introduced in the country at 2003. Flex cars allow Brazilian consumers to choose between gasoline and hydrated ethanol and immediately switch to whichever fuel presents the most favourable relative price.

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Aiming to achieve the ideal time of ovum pick-up (OPU) for in vitro embryo production (IVP) in crossbred heifers, two Latin square design studies investigated the effect of ovarian follicular wave synchronization with estradiol benzoate (EB) and progestins. For each experiment, crossbred heifers stage of estrous cycle was synchronized either with a norgestomet ear implant (Experiment 1) or a progesterone intravaginal device (Experiment 2) for 7d, followed by the administration of 150 mu g D-cloprostenol. On Day 7, all follicles >3 mm in diameter were aspirated and implants/devices were replaced by new ones. Afterwards, implant/device replacement was conducted every 14 d. Each experiment had three treatment groups. In Experiment I (n = 12), heifers in Group 2X had their follicles aspirated twice a week and those in Groups 1X and 1X-EB were submitted to OPU once a week for a period of 28 d. Heifers from Group 1X-EB also received 2 mg EB i.m. immediately after each OPU session. In Experiment 2 (n = 11), animals from Group 0EB did not receive EB while heifers in Groups 2EB and 5EB received 2 and 5 mg of EB respectively, immediately after OPU. The OPU sessions were performed once weekly for 28 d. Therefore, in both experiments, four OPU sessions were performed in heifers aspirated once a week and in Experiment 1, eight OPU sessions were done in heifers aspirated twice a week. Additionally, during the 7-d period following follicular aspiration, ovarian ultrasonography examinations were conducted to measure diameter of the largest follicle and blood samples were collected for FSH quantification by RIA. In Experiment 1, all viable oocytes recovered were in vitro matured and fertilized. Results indicated that while progestin and EB altered follicular wave patterns, this treatment did not prevent establishment of follicular dominance on the ovaries of heifers during OPU at 7-d intervals. Furthermore, the proposed stage of follicular wave synchronization strategies did not improve the number and quality of the recovered oocytes, or the number of in vitro produced embryos. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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The goal of this paper is to study the global existence of small data solutions to the Cauchy problem for the nonlinear wave equation u(tt) - a(t)(2) Delta u = u(t)(2) - a(t)(2)vertical bar del u vertical bar(2). In particular we are interested in statements for the 1D case. We will explain how the interplay between the increasing and oscillating behavior of the coefficient will influence global existence of small data solutions. Copyright c 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Background: Current relevance of T-wave alternans is based on its association with electrical disorder and elevated cardiac risk. Quantitative reports would improve understanding on TWA augmentation mechanisms during mental stress or prior to tachyarrhythmias. However, little information is available about quantitative TWA values in clinical populations. This study aims to create and compare TWA profiles of healthy subjects and ICD patients, evaluated on treadmill stress protocols. Methods: Apparently healthy subjects, not in use of any medication were recruited. All eligible ICD patients were capable of performing an attenuated stress test. TWA analysis was performed during a 15-lead treadmill test. The derived comparative profile consisted of TWA amplitude and its associated heart rate, at rest (baseline) and at peak TWA value. Chi-square or Mann-Whitney tests were used with p values <= 0.05. Discriminatory performance was evaluated by a binary logistic regression model. Results: 31 healthy subjects (8F, 23M) and 32 ICD patients (10F, 22M) were different on baseline TWA (1 +/- 2 mu V; 8 +/- 9 mu V; p < 0.001) and peak TWA values (26 +/- 13 mu V; 37 +/- 20 mu V; p = 0,009) as well as on baseline TWA heart rate (79 +/- 10 bpm; 67 +/- 15 bpm; p < 0.001) and peak TWA heart rate (118 +/- 8 bpm; 90 +/- 17 bpm; p < 0.001). The logistic model yielded sensitivity and specificity values of 88.9% and 92.9%, respectively. Conclusions: Healthy subjects and ICD patients have distinct TWA profiles. The new TWA profile representation (in amplitude-heart rate pairs) may help comparison among different research protocols. Ann Noninvasive Electrocardiol 2009;14(2):108-118.