Measuring time series predictability using support vector regression

Most studies involving statistical time series analysis rely on assumptions of linearity, which by its simplicity facilitates parameter interpretation and estimation. However, the linearity assumption may be too restrictive for many practical applications. The implementation of nonlinear models in time series analysis involves the estimation of a large set of parameters, frequently leading to overfitting problems. In this article, a predictability coefficient is estimated using a combination of nonlinear autoregressive models and the use of support vector regression in this model is explored. We illustrate the usefulness and interpretability of results by using electroencephalographic records of an epileptic patient.

Tendência temporal e desigualdades na mortalidade por diarreias em menores de 5 anos

OBJETIVO: Analisar a tendência da mortalidade por diarreia entre menores de 5 anos, no município de Osasco (SP), entre 1980 e 2000. MÉTODOS: Trata-se de estudo observacional com dois delineamentos. Um descritivo, que toma o indivíduo como unidade do estudo, e outro ecológico, analisando agregado populacional que incluiu análise de séries temporais. A fonte de dados foi o sistema de informação de mortalidade do Estado de São Paulo e censos de 1980, 1991 e 2000. Descreveu-se a variação sazonal e para a análise de tendência aplicaram-se modelos log lineares de regressão polinomiais, utilizando-se variáveis sociodemográficas da criança e da mãe. Foram analisadas a evolução de indicadores sociodemográficos do município de 1980 a 2000, as taxas médias de mortalidade por diarreia nos menores de 5 anos e seus diferenciais por distrito nos anos 90. RESULTADOS: Dos 1.360 óbitos, 94,3 e 75,3% atingiram, respectivamente, menores de 1 ano e de 6 meses. O declínio da mortalidade foi de 98,3%, com deslocamento da sazonalidade do verão para o outono. A mediana da idade elevou-se de 2 meses nos primeiros períodos para 3 meses no último. O resíduo de óbitos manteve-se entre filhos de mães de 20 a 29 anos e escolaridade < 8 anos. O risco relativo entre o distrito mais atingido e a taxa média do município diminuiu de 3,4 para 1,3 do primeiro para o segundo quinquênio dos anos 90. CONCLUSÃO: Nossos resultados apontam uma elevação da idade mais vulnerável e a provável mudança do agente mais frequentemente associado ao óbito por diarreia.

Tendência temporal e desigualdades na mortalidade por diarreias em

Objetivo: Analisar a tendência da mortalidade por diarreia entre menores de 5 anos, no município de Osasco (SP), entre 1980 e 2000. Métodos: Trata-se de estudo observacional com dois delineamentos. Um descritivo, que toma o indivíduo como unidade do estudo, e outro ecológico, analisando agregado populacional que incluiu análise de séries temporais. A fonte de dados foi o sistema de informação de mortalidade do Estado de São Paulo e censos de 1980, 1991 e 2000. Descreveu-se a variação sazonal e para a análise de tendência aplicaram-se modelos log lineares de regressão polinomiais, utilizando-se variáveis sociodemográficas da criança e da mãe. Foram analisadas a evolução de indicadores sociodemográficos do município de 1980 a 2000, as taxas médias de mortalidade por diarreia nos menores de 5 anos e seus diferenciais por distrito nos anos 90. Resultados: Dos 1.360 óbitos, 94,3 e 75,3% atingiram, respectivamente, menores de 1 ano e de 6 meses. O declínio da mortalidade foi de 98,3%, com deslocamento da sazonalidade do verão para o outono. A mediana da idade elevou-se de 2 meses nos primeiros períodos para 3 meses no último. O resíduo de óbitos manteve-se entre filhos de mães de 20 a 29 anos e escolaridade < 8 anos. O risco relativo entre o distrito mais atingido e a taxa média do município diminuiu de 3,4 para 1,3 do primeiro para o segundo quinquênio dos anos 90. Conclusão: Nossos resultados apontam uma elevação da idade mais vulnerável e a provável mudança do agente mais frequentemente associado ao óbito por diarreia

Relationship Between Eccentric Hip Torque and Lower-Limb Kinematics: Gender Differences

The purposes of this study were to compare lower-limb kinematics between genders, and determine the relationships among eccentric hip abductor and lateral rotator torques and lower-limb kinematics. The movements of the pelvis, femur, and knee were calculated for 16 women and 16 men during the single-leg squat. Eccentric hip abductor and lateral rotator torques were measured using an isokinetic dynamometer. The results showed that women had greater contralateral pelvic depression, femur adduction, and knee abduction than men. The eccentric hip abductor and lateral rotator torques were correlated with coronal plane femur and knee movements in the overall sample. When the genders were analyzed separately, it was observed that women with greater eccentric hip abductor torque exhibited less femur adduction and femur medial rotation, and greater knee adduction excursion. No significant relationship was observed between the isokinetic and kinematic variables in the male group. The differences between the genders help to explain the greater rate of knee disorders observed in women. Moreover, the eccentric hip abduction action seemed to be more important in women to control the lower-limb movements.

Chaotic Patterns in Aeroelastic Signals

This work presents the analysis of nonlinear aeroelastic time series from wing vibrations due to airflow separation during wind tunnel experiments. Surrogate data method is used to justify the application of nonlinear time series analysis to the aeroelastic system, after rejecting the chance for nonstationarity. The singular value decomposition (SVD) approach is used to reconstruct the state space, reducing noise from the aeroelastic time series. Direct analysis of reconstructed trajectories in the state space and the determination of Poincare sections have been employed to investigate complex dynamics and chaotic patterns. With the reconstructed state spaces, qualitative analyses may be done, and the attractors evolutions with parametric variation are presented. Overall results reveal complex system dynamics associated with highly separated flow effects together with nonlinear coupling between aeroelastic modes. Bifurcations to the nonlinear aeroelastic system are observed for two investigations, that is, considering oscillations-induced aeroelastic evolutions with varying freestream speed, and aeroelastic evolutions at constant freestream speed and varying oscillations. Finally, Lyapunov exponent calculation is proceeded in order to infer on chaotic behavior. Poincare mappings also suggest bifurcations and chaos, reinforced by the attainment of maximum positive Lyapunov exponents. Copyright (C) 2009 F. D. Marques and R. M. G. Vasconcellos.

A spatial approach for the epidemiology of antibiotic use and resistance in community-based studies: the emergence of urban clusters of Escherichia coli quinolone resistance in Sao Paulo, Brasil

Background: Population antimicrobial use may influence resistance emergence. Resistance is an ecological phenomenon due to potential transmissibility. We investigated spatial and temporal patterns of ciprofloxacin (CIP) population consumption related to E. coli resistance emergence and dissemination in a major Brazilian city. A total of 4,372 urinary tract infection E. coli cases, with 723 CIP resistant, were identified in 2002 from two outpatient centres. Cases were address geocoded in a digital map. Raw CIP consumption data was transformed into usage density in DDDs by CIP selling points influence zones determination. A stochastic model coupled with a Geographical Information System was applied for relating resistance and usage density and for detecting city areas of high/low resistance risk. Results: E. coli CIP resistant cluster emergence was detected and significantly related to usage density at a level of 5 to 9 CIP DDDs. There were clustered hot-spots and a significant global spatial variation in the residual resistance risk after allowing for usage density. Conclusions: There were clustered hot-spots and a significant global spatial variation in the residual resistance risk after allowing for usage density. The usage density of 5-9 CIP DDDs per 1,000 inhabitants within the same influence zone was the resistance triggering level. This level led to E. coli resistance clustering, proving that individual resistance emergence and dissemination was affected by antimicrobial population consumption.

Photometric variability of the Be star CoRoT-ID 102761769

Context. Classical Be stars are rapid rotators of spectral type late O to early A and luminosity class V-III, which exhibit Balmer emission lines and often a near infrared excess originating in an equatorially concentrated circumstellar envelope, both produced by sporadic mass ejection episodes. The causes of the abnormal mass loss (the so-called Be phenomenon) are as yet unknown. Aims. For the first time, we can now study in detail Be stars outside the Earth's atmosphere with sufficient temporal resolution. We investigate the variability of the Be Star CoRoT-ID 102761769 observed with the CoRoT satellite in the exoplanet field during the initial run. Methods. One low-resolution spectrum of the star was obtained with the INT telescope at the Observatorio del Roque de los Muchachos. A time series analysis was performed using both cleanest and singular spectrum analysis algorithms to the CoRoT light curve. To identify the pulsation modes of the observed frequencies, we computed a set of models representative of CoRoT-ID 102761769 by varying its main physical parameters inside the uncertainties discussed. Results. We found two close frequencies related to the star. They are 2.465 c d(-1) (28.5 mu Hz) and 2.441 c d(-1) (28.2 mu Hz). The precision to which those frequencies were found is 0.018 c d(-1) (0.2 mu Hz). The projected stellar rotation was estimated to be 120 km s(-1) from the Fourier transform of spectral lines. If CoRoT-ID 102761769 is a typical Galactic Be star it rotates near the critical velocity. The critical rotation frequency of a typical B5-6 star is about 3.5 c d(-1) (40.5 mu Hz), which implies that the above frequencies are really caused by stellar pulsations rather than star's rotation.

The B0.5 IVe CoRoT target HD 49330 II. Spectroscopic ground-based observations

Context. We present spectroscopic ground-based observations of the early Be star HD 49330 obtained simultaneously with the CoRoT-LRA1 run just before the burst observed in the CoRoT data. Aims. Ground-based spectroscopic observations of the early Be star HD 49330 obtained during the precursor phase and just before the start of an outburst allow us to disantangle stellar and circumstellar contributions and identify modes of stellar pulsations in this rapidly rotating star. Methods. Time series analysis (TSA) is performed on photospheric line profiles of He I and Si III by means of the least squares method. Results. We find two main frequencies f1 = 11.86 c d(-1) and f2 = 16.89 c d(-1) which can be associated with high order p-mode pulsations. We also detect a frequency f3 = 1.51 c d(-1) which can be associated with a low order g-mode. Moreover we show that the stellar line profile variability changed over the spectroscopic run. These results are in agreement with the results of the CoRoT data analysis, as shown in Huat et al. (2009). Conclusions. Our study of mid-and short-term spectroscopic variability allows the identification of p-and g-modes in HD 49330. It also allows us to display changes in the line profile variability before the start of an outburst. This brings new constraints for the seimic modelling of this star.

Hormone-regulated expression and distribution of versican in mouse uterine tissues

Background: Remodeling of the extracellular matrix is one of the most striking features observed in the uterus during the estrous cycle and after hormone replacement. Versican (VER) is a hyaluronan-binding proteoglycan that undergoes RNA alternative splicing, generating four distinct isoforms. This study analyzed the synthesis and distribution of VER in mouse uterine tissues during the estrous cycle, in ovariectomized (OVX) animals and after 17beta-estradiol (E2) and medroxyprogesterone (MPA) treatments, either alone or in combination. Methods: Uteri from mice in all phases of the estrous cycle, and animals subjected to ovariectomy and hormone replacement were collected for immunoperoxidase staining for versican, as well as PCR and quantitative Real Time PCR. Results: In diestrus and proestrus, VER was exclusively expressed in the endometrial stroma. In estrus and metaestrus, VER was present in both endometrial stroma and myometrium. In OVX mice, VER immunoreaction was abolished in all uterine tissues. VER expression was restored by E2, MPA and E2+MPA treatments. Real Time PCR analysis showed that VER expression increases considerably in the MPA-treated group. Analysis of mRNA identified isoforms V0, V1 and V3 in the mouse uterus. Conclusion: These results show that the expression of versican in uterine tissues is modulated by ovarian steroid hormones, in a tissue-specific manner. VER is induced in the myometrium exclusively by E2, whereas MPA induces VER deposition only in the endometrial stroma.

High Prevalence of bla(CTX-M) Extended Spectrum Beta-Lactamase Genes in Klebsiella pneumoniae Isolates from a Tertiary Care Hospital: First report of bla(SHV-12), bla(SHV-31), bla(SHV-38), and bla(CTX-M-15) in Brazil

The aim of this study was to investigate the presence and prevalence of bla(TEM), bla(SHV), and bla(CTX-M) and bla(GES)-like genes, responsible for extended spectrum beta-lactamases (ESBLs) production in clinical isolates of Klebsiella pneumoniae collected from a Brazilian tertiary care hospital. Sixty-five ESBL producing K. pneumoniae isolates, collected between 2005 and 2007, were screened by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Identification of bla genes was achieved by sequencing. Genotyping of ESBL producing K. pneumoniae was performed by the enterobacterial repetitive intergenic consensus-PCR with cluster analysis by the Dice coefficient. The presence of genes encoding ESBLs was confirmed in 59/65 (90.8%) isolates, comprising 20 bla(CTX-M-2), 14 bla(CTX-M-59), 12 bla(CTX-M-15), 9 bla(SHV-12), 1 bla(SHV-2), 1 bla(SHV-2a), 1 bla(SHV-5), and 1 bla(SHV-31) genes. The ESBL genes bla(SHV-12), bla(SHV-31), and bla(CTX-M-15), and the chromosome-encoded SHV-type beta-lactamase capable of hydrolyzing imipenem were detected in Brazil for the first time. The analysis of the enterobacterial repetitive intergenic consensus-PCR band patterns revealed a high rate of multiclonal bla(CTX-M) carrying K. pneumoniae isolates (70.8%), suggesting that dissemination of encoding plasmids is likely to be the major cause of the high prevalence of these genes among the K. pneumoniae isolates considered in this study.

Low dimensional behavior in three-dimensional coupled map lattices

The analysis of one-, two-, and three-dimensional coupled map lattices is here developed under a statistical and dynamical perspective. We show that the three-dimensional CML exhibits low dimensional behavior with long range correlation and the power spectrum follows 1/f noise. This approach leads to an integrated understanding of the most important properties of these universal models of spatiotemporal chaos. We perform a complete time series analysis of the model and investigate the dependence of the signal properties by change of dimension. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of alternative technical markers for the pelvic coordinate system

In this study, we evaluated alternative technical markers for the motion analysis of the pelvic segment. Thirteen subjects walked eight times while tri-dimensional kinematics were recorded for one stride of each trial. Five marker sets were evaluated, and we compared the tilt, obliquity, and rotation angles of the pelvis segment: (1) standard: markers at the anterior and posterior superior iliac spines (ASIS and PSIS); (2) markers at the PSIS and at the hip joint centers, HJCs (estimated by a functional method and described with clusters of markers at the thighs); (3) markers at the PSIS and HJCs (estimated by a predictive method and described with clusters of markers at the thighs); (4) markers at the PSIS and HJCs (estimated by a predictive method and described with skin-mounted markers at the thighs based on the Helen-Hayes marker set); (5) markers at the PSIS and at the iliac spines. Concerning the pelvic angles, evaluation of the alternative technical marker sets evinced that all marker sets demonstrated similar precision across trials (about 1 degrees) but different accuracies (ranging from 1 degrees to 3 degrees) in comparison to the standard marker set. We suggest that all the investigated marker sets are reliable alternatives to the standard pelvic marker set. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

MODELING THE UNVOICED COMPONENT IN THE CANONICAL REPRESENTATION OF SPEECH

The canonical representation of speech constitutes a perfect reconstruction (PR) analysis-synthesis system. Its parameters are the autoregressive (AR) model coefficients, the pitch period and the voiced and unvoiced components of the excitation represented as transform coefficients. Each set of parameters may be operated on independently. A time-frequency unvoiced excitation (TFUNEX) model is proposed that has high time resolution and selective frequency resolution. Improved time-frequency fit is obtained by using for antialiasing cancellation the clustering of pitch-synchronous transform tracks defined in the modulation transform domain. The TFUNEX model delivers high-quality speech while compressing the unvoiced excitation representation about 13 times over its raw transform coefficient representation for wideband speech.

A fast sample preparation procedure for mercury speciation in hair samples by high-performance liquid chromatography coupled to ICP-MS

A simple method for mercury speciation in hair samples with a fast sample preparation procedure using high-performance liquid chromatography coupled to inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry is proposed. Prior to analysis, 50 mg of hair samples were accurately weighed into 15 mL conical tubes. Then, an extractant solution containing mercaptoethanol, L-cysteine and HCl was added to the samples following sonication for 10 min. Quantitative mercury extraction was achieved with the proposed procedure. Separation of inorganic mercury (Ino-Hg), methylmercury (Met-Hg) and ethylmercury (Et-Hg) was accomplished in less than 8 min on a C18 reverse phase column with a mobile phase containing 0.05% v/v mercaptoethanol, 0.4% m/v L-cysteine, 0.06 mol L(-1) ammonium acetate and 5% v/v methanol. The method detection limits were found to be 15 ng g(-1), 10 ng g(-1) and 38 ng g(-1), for inorganic mercury, methylmercury and ethylmercury, respectively. Sample throughput is 4 samples h(-1) (duplicate). A considerable improvement in the time of analysis was achieved when compared to other published methods. Method accuracy is traceable to Certified Reference Materials (CRMs) 85 and 86 human hair from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Finally, the proposed method was successfully applied to the speciation of mercury in hair samples collected from fish-eating communities of the Brazilian Amazon.

Mercury speciation in whole blood by gas chromatography coupled to ICP-MS with a fast microwave-assisted sample preparation procedure

A simple and fast method is described for simultaneous determination of methylmercury (MeHg), ethylmercury (Et-Hg) and inorganic mercury (Ino-Hg) in blood samples by using capillary gas chromatography-inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (GC-ICP-MS) after derivatization and alkaline digestion. Closed-vessel microwave assisted digestion conditions with tetramethylammonium hydroxide (TMAH) have been optimized. Derivatization by using ethylation and propylation procedures have also been evaluated and compared. The absolute detection limits (using a 1 mu L injection) obtained by GC-ICP-MS with ethylation were 40 fg for MeHg and Ino-Hg, respectively, and with propylation were 50, 20 and 50 fg for MeHg, Et-Hg and Ino-Hg, respectively. Method accuracy is traceable to Standard Reference Material (SRM) 966 Toxic Metals in Bovine Blood from the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). Additional validation is provided based on the comparison of results obtained for mercury speciation in blood samples with the proposed procedure and with a previously reported LC-ICP-MS method. With the new proposed procedure no tedious clean-up steps are required and a considerable improvement of the time of analysis was achieved compared to other methods using GC separation.