Pricing farm-level agricultural insurance: a Bayesian approach

This paper applies Hierarchical Bayesian Models to price farm-level yield insurance contracts. This methodology considers the temporal effect, the spatial dependence and spatio-temporal models. One of the major advantages of this framework is that an estimate of the premium rate is obtained directly from the posterior distribution. These methods were applied to a farm-level data set of soybean in the State of the Parana (Brazil), for the period between 1994 and 2003. The model selection was based on a posterior predictive criterion. This study improves considerably the estimation of the fair premium rates considering the small number of observations.

Bayesian ratemaking procedure of crop insurance contracts with skewed distribution

Over the years, crop insurance programs became the focus of agricultural policy in the USA, Spain, Mexico, and more recently in Brazil. Given the increasing interest in insurance, accurate calculation of the premium rate is of great importance. We address the crop-yield distribution issue and its implications in pricing an insurance contract considering the dynamic structure of the data and incorporating the spatial correlation in the Hierarchical Bayesian framework. Results show that empirical (insurers) rates are higher in low risk areas and lower in high risk areas. Such methodological improvement is primarily important in situations of limited data.

Spatio-temporal modeling of agricultural yield data with an application to pricing crop insurance contracts

This article presents a statistical model of agricultural yield data based on a set of hierarchical Bayesian models that allows joint modeling of temporal and spatial autocorrelation. This method captures a comprehensive range of the various uncertainties involved in predicting crop insurance premium rates as opposed to the more traditional ad hoc, two-stage methods that are typically based on independent estimation and prediction. A panel data set of county-average yield data was analyzed for 290 counties in the State of Parana (Brazil) for the period of 1990 through 2002. Posterior predictive criteria are used to evaluate different model specifications. This article provides substantial improvements in the statistical and actuarial methods often applied to the calculation of insurance premium rates. These improvements are especially relevant to situations where data are limited.

Parametric and nonparametric statistical modelling of crop yield: implications for pricing crop insurance contracts

This article considers alternative methods to calculate the fair premium rate of crop insurance contracts based on county yields. The premium rate was calculated using parametric and nonparametric approaches to estimate the conditional agricultural yield density. These methods were applied to a data set of county yield provided by the Statistical and Geography Brazilian Institute (IBGE), for the period of 1990 through 2002, for soybean, corn and wheat, in the State of Paran. In this article, we propose methodological alternatives to pricing crop insurance contracts resulting in more accurate premium rates in a situation of limited data.

Body composition and quality of life (QoL) of the elderly offered by the ""University Third Age`` (UTA) in Brazil

The investigation of the factors that interfere in the well-being of the elderly and their QoL can provide theoretical and methodological subsidies in structuring actions and policies in the health area, in order to fulfill the needs of that population. In this descriptive transversal study, body composition and QoL of elderly women at the UTA program in Piracicaba (Sao Paulo, Brazil) were verified. The participants were 81 women from UTA, and the general levels of physical activity were evaluated, as well as body weight (BW), height, and bodymass index (BMI). The waist circumference (WC) was measured at the level of the umbilical scar and the body composition by impedance (BIA 310e). QoL was verified by means of WHOQOL-Bref and statistical analysis developed with the SAS program. The decrease of weight, height, BMI, and fat-free mass (FFM) was observed among the several age groups, although with no significant difference. The average levels of the general QoL scores and physical, psychological and environmental domains decreased in higher age groups, but social domains showed the opposite result. This fact can be a particular characteristic of the UTA group, and factors the influence such behavior are yet to be studied. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Heteroplasmy in Hair: Study of Mitochondrial DNA Third Hypervariable Region in Hair and Blood Samples

Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) analysis has proved useful for forensic identification especially in cases where nuclear DNA is not available, such as with hair evidence. Heteroplasmy, the presence of more than one type of mtDNA in one individual, is a common situation often reported in the first and second mtDNA hypervariable regions (HV1/HV2), particularly in hair samples. However, there is no data about heteroplasmy frequency in the third mtDNA hypervariable region (HV3). To investigate possible heteroplasmy hotspots, HV3 from hair and blood samples of 100 individuals were sequenced and compared. No point heteroplasmy was observed, but length heteroplasmy was, both in C-stretch and CA repeat. To observe which CA ""alleles"" were present in each tissue, PCR products were cloned and re-sequenced. However, no variation among CA alleles was observed. Regarding forensic practice, we conclude that point heteroplasmy in HV3 is not as frequent as in the HV1/HV2.

Intrinsically bent DNA sites in the Drosophila melanogaster third chromosome amplified domain

Bent DNA sites promote the curvature of DNA in both eukaryotic and prokaryotic chromosomes. Here, we investigate the localization and structure of intrinsically bent DNA sites in the extensively characterized Drosophila melanogaster third chromosome DAFC-66D segment (Drosophila amplicon in the follicle cells). This region contains the amplification control element ACE3, which is a replication enhancer that acts in cis to activate the major replication origin ori-beta. Through both electrophoretic and in silico analysis, we have identified three major bent DNA sites in DAFC-66D. The bent DNA site (b1) is localized in the ACE3 element, whereas the other two bent DNA sites (b2 and b3) are localized in the ori-beta region. Four additional bent DNA sites were identified in the intron of the S18 gene and near the TATA box of the S15, S19, and S16 genes. The identification of DNA bent sites in genomic regions previously characterized as functionally relevant for DNA amplification further supports a function for DNA bent sites in DNA replication in eukaryotes.

Electromyographic Study of the Masseter Muscle after Lower Third Molar Surgery

Third molar extraction surgery is one of the most frequently performed procedures in the areas of buccal-maxillofacial traumatology and surgery. The post-surgery evolution was evaluated based on the clinical evidence obtained so far. The objective of this study was to analyze the post-surgery clinical evolution of the masseter muscle by means of surface electromyography, to evaluate muscle activity. Four analyses were performed: one pre-surgery, to register the normal activity, and three in post-surgery: on the 7(th), 14(th) and 21(st) postoperative days, in a sample of 30 patients. On the 21(st) day, there was near normal recovery of the electrical signal of the masseter in women, but in men this activity did not reach normal levels. Surface electromyography is a safe and reliable tool for post-surgery evolution control of masseter function.

Uveitis in celiac disease with an excellent response to gluten-free diet: third case described

To describe the case of a patient with celiac disease who achieved a complete response to a gluten-free diet. A 28-year-old woman presented with diarrhea, oral ulcers, and refractory uveitis of 2.5-years duration. She was treated with prednisone, mydriatic drops, and infliximab with no response. She was referred to our hospital at which point her previous diagnosis of uveitis was confirmed; she was also diagnosed with right-sided sacro-iliitis. The patient did not have arthritis or any skin conditions. Three tests for fecal parasites and a fecal leukocyte were negative. Endoscopy revealed atrophic appearance of the duodenal mucosa. Biopsy showed atrophy of the duodenal villi with intra-epithelial lymphocytes, hyperplasia of the crypts, and chronic inflammatory infiltrate. The search for antiendomysial antibody was > 1/1,280. The patient was started on a gluten-free diet and after 3 months demonstrated significant improvement of gastrointestinal symptoms and uveitis, as well as a reduction of antiendomysial antibodies (1/80). After 6 months, there was complete remission of gastrointestinal symptoms and total control of uveitis. The antiendomysial antibody was negative at that time. Clinical uveitis as a manifestation of celiac disease has been described in only two cases in the literature. This case study is the third to demonstrate that uveitis is a clinical symptom that can be addressed in patients with celiac disease.

Late obstruction of an endoscopic third ventriculostomy stoma by metastatic seeding of a recurrent medulloblastoma Case report

Endoscopic third ventriculostomy (ETV) has been established as an effective method in the treatment of tumoral obstructive hydrocephalus. Delayed closure of the ETV stoma has been attributed to scarring involving the third ventricular floor. Secondary obstruction of the stoma due to intraventricular tumor seeding is an extremely rare condition, with only one case described to date. The authors report on a unique case of late closure of the ETV stoma caused by metastatic seeding of a recurrent medulloblastoma 9 years after the initial treatment. The patient was submitted to a second endoscopic procedure in which a reddish mass located just at the third ventricular floor was resected, leading to reopening of the previous ETV stoma. To the best of the authors` knowledge, this case is the first report of an ETV obstruction due to metastatic CSF seeding of a medulloblastoma. In such cases of late failure of the ETV stoma because of tumor obstruction, a second ETV can be safely performed and lead to adequate function of the stoma, even if limited by the aggressive nature of the disease. (DOI: 10.3171/2010.1.PEDS09320)

Quantitative Ventricular Neuroendoscopy Performed on the Third Ventriculostomy: Anatomic Study

BACKGROUND: One of the key elements for a successful endoscopic intervention in the ventricular system is the ability to recognize the anatomic structures and use them as a reference. OBJECTIVE: To measure the choroid plexus with endoscopy in the interventricular foramen, together with the structures on the third ventricle floor, and to compare these variables. METHODS: An observational prospective study was carried out on 37 brains of cadavers for which the cause of death was assessed at the Death Check Unit of the University of Sao Paulo in April 2008. This study was done on adults of both sexes with a rigid neuroendoscope. Endoscopic images were recorded, submitted for correction of distortion, and then measured. RESULTS: The measurements of the choroid plexus in the interventricular foramen, laterolateral distance of mammillary bodies, distance from the infundibular recess to the mammillary bodies, and area of the triangle in the tuber cinereum were 1.71 +/- 0.77 mm, 2.23 +/- 0.74 mm, 3.22 +/- 0.82 mm, and 3.69 +/- 2.09 mm(2), respectively. The ventricle floor was opaque in 84% of cases. The internal distance of mammillary bodies was absent in 89%. Associations between the translucent floor of the third ventricle and laterolateral distance of mammillary bodies, internal distance of mammillary bodies, and age were identified. CONCLUSION: Before this research, there was no record of the measurements of the choroid plexus in the interventricular foramen. The remaining variables of the present study show a greater number in normal brains compared with others.

Abuse liability of intra-nasal midazolam in inhaled-cocaine abusers

Intra-nasally instilled benzodiazepines have been proposed for acute anxiety episodes. However, routes with faster absorption may increase abuse liability. This study compared abuse liability of intra-nasal midazolam between subjects with a history of intra-nasal drug abuse and non-psychiatric subjects on a single-blind randomized controlled trial. Thirty-one inhaled-cocaine abusers and 34 normal volunteers received either 1 mg intra-nasal midazolam or active placebo. Visual analogue scales assessing desire to repeat the experience (ER) and Experience Liking (EL) assessed abuse liability. Profile analysis for repeated measures showed a significant effect of time over ER (F-[5,F-57]=3.311, p=0.011) and EL (F-[5,F-57]=3.947, p=0.004), diagnostic group (cocaine abusers scoring higher on both - F-[5,F-57]=5.229, p=0.026; F-[5,F-57]=4.946, p=0.030), regardless of the administered substance. It is concluded that the intra-nasal route does not seem to pose risks for non-psychiatric individuals, but it may represent a risk in itself for subjects with a history of drug abuse through this path. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. and ECNP. All rights reserved.

Influence of third-generation oral contraceptives on the complexity analysis and symbolic dynamics of heart rate variability

Objective To evaluate the influence of oral contraceptives (OCs) containing 20 mu mu g ethinylestradiol (EE) and 150 mu mu g gestodene (GEST) on the autonomic modulation of heart rate (HR) in women. Methods One-hundred and fifty-five women aged 24 +/-+/- 2 years were divided into four groups according to their physical activity and the use or not of an OC: active-OC, active-non-OC (NOC), sedentary-OC, and sedentary-NOC. The heart rate was registered in real time based on the electrocardiogram signal for 15 minutes, in the supine-position. The heart rate variability (HRV) was analysed using Shannon`s entropy (SE), conditional entropy (complexity index [CInd] and normalised CInd [NCI]), and symbolic analysis (0V%, 1V%, 2LV%, and 2ULV%). For statistical analysis the Kruskal-Wallis test with Dunn post hoc and the Wilcoxon test (p < 0.05 was considered significant) were applied. Results Treatment with this COC caused no significant changes in SE, CInd, NCI, or symbolic analysis in either active or sedentary groups. Active groups presented higher values for SE and 2ULV%, and lower values for 0V% when compared to sedentary groups (p < 0.05). Conclusion HRV patterns differed depending on life style; the non-linear method applied was highly reliable for identifying these changes. The use of OCs containing 20 mu mu g EE and 150 mu mu g GEST does not influence HR autonomic modulation.

Extramedullary plasmacytoma of the third eyelid gland in a dog

A case of extramedullary plasmacytoma of the third eyelid gland in a 7-year-old American Cocker Spaniel is reported. An enlargement of the third eyelid gland, abundant mucopurulent discharge, mild hyperemia and corneal pigmentation in the OD was present. Excisional biopsy of the mass revealed the gland was infiltrated and partially destroyed by a uniform population of neoplastic plasma cells. The neoplastic cells were positive for CD138, Ki-67 and lambda light chain. CD20, CD3, kappa light chain and cytokeratin were negative. Twelve months following surgery, no recurrence was observed. To the authors` knowledge, this is the first extramedullary plasmacytoma of the third eyelid gland reported in dogs.

Ultrastructure of Motor Nerve Terminals in the Anterior Third of Wistar Rat Tongue

The nerve terminals of intrinsic muscular fibers of the tongue of adult wistar rats was studied by using silver impregnation techniques, transmission electron microscopy (TEM), and high resolution scanning electron microscopy (HRSEM) to observe the nerve fibers and their terminals. Silver impregnation was done according to Winkelman and Schmit, 1957. For TEM, small blocks were fixed in modified Karnovsky solution, postfixed in 1% buffered osmium tetroxide solution, and embedded in Spurr resin. For HRSEM, the parts were fixed in 2% osmium tetroxide solution with 1/15 M sodium phosphate buffer (pH 7.4) at 4 degrees C for 2 h, according to the technique described by Tanaka, 1989. Thick myelinated nerve bundles were histologically observed among the muscular fibers. The intrafusal nerve fiber presented a tortuous pathway with punctiform terminal axons in clusters contacting the surface of sarcolemma. Several myelinated nerve fibers involved by collagen fibers of the endoneurium were observed in HRSEM in three-dimensional aspects. The concentric lamellae of the myelin sheath and the axoplasm containing neurofilaments interspersed among the mitochondria were also noted. In TEM, myofibrils, mitochondria, rough endoplasmic reticulum, Golgi`s apparatus, and glycogen granules were observed in sarcoplasm. It is also noted that the sarcomeres constituted by myofilaments with their A, I, and H bands and the electron dense Z lines. In areas adjacent to muscular fibers, there were myelinated and unmyelinated nerve fibers involved by endoneurium and perineurium. In the region of the neuromuscular junction, the contact with the sarcolemma of the muscular cell occurs forming several terminal buttons and showing numerous evaginations of the cell membrane. In the terminal button, mitochondria and numerous synaptic vesicles were observed. Microsc. Res. Tech. 72:464-470, 2009. (C) 2009 Wiley-Liss. Inc.