The Effect of Spatial Scale on Predicting Time Series: A Study on Epidemiological System Identification

A susceptible-infective-recovered (SIR) epidemiological model based on probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA) is employed for simulating the temporal evolution of the registered cases of chickenpox in Arizona, USA, between 1994 and 2004. At each time step, every individual is in one of the states S, I, or R. The parameters of this model are the probabilities of each individual (each cell forming the PCA lattice ) passing from a state to another state. Here, the values of these probabilities are identified by using a genetic algorithm. If nonrealistic values are allowed to the parameters, the predictions present better agreement with the historical series than if they are forced to present realistic values. A discussion about how the size of the PCA lattice affects the quality of the model predictions is presented. Copyright (C) 2009 L. H. A. Monteiro et al.

Extraction and purification of total RNA from banana tissues (small scale)

Introduction. This protocol aims at preparing total RNA for gene expression analysis by Northern blots, RT-PCR and real-time quantitative PCR; cDNA isolation by RTPCR; and cDNA library construction. The principle, key advantages, starting plant material, time required for obtaining total RNA and expected results are presented. Materials and methods. This part describes the required materials and the 27 steps necessary for preparing RNA from peel and pulp fruit tissue: preparation of plant tissue powder, preparation of the complete RNA extraction buffer and isolation of RNA from ground banana fruit tissue. Results. Extraction of total RNA by the method described makes it possible to achieve electrophoresis under denatured conditions and in vitro reverse transcription. An example for Northern blot analysis is illustrated.

Signatures of oxygen on Cu(3)Au(100): From isolated impurity to oxide regimes

We analyze the scanning tunneling microscopy (STM) signatures for the O/Cu(3)Au(100) surface from the low-coverage (isolated impurity) to high-coverage (oxide) regimes. First-principles calculations show that oxygen signatures switch from dark to bright spots as the oxygen coverage increases. This behavior is nicely traced back to a change in the oxygen orbital character of the Fermi-level electronic states. Our results allow for the chemical identification by STM of oxygen and copper atoms in the fully ordered O/Cu(3)Au(100)-c(2x2) surface.

The Borg Scale as an Important Tool of Self-Monitoring and Self-Regulation of Exercise Prescription in Heart Failure Patients During Hydrotherapy - A Randomized Blinded Controlled Trial

Background: The Borg Scale may be a useful tool for heart failure patients to self-monitor and self-regulate exercise on land or in water (hydrotherapy) by maintaining the heart rate (HR) between the anaerobic threshold and respiratory compensation point. Methods and Results: Patients performed a cardiopulmonary exercise test to determine their anaerobic threshold/respiratory compensation points. The percentage of the mean HR during the exercise session in relation to the anaerobic threshold HR (%EHR-AT), in relation to the respiratory compensation point (%EHR-RCP), in relation to the peak HR by the exercise test (%EHR-Peak) and in relation to the maximum predicted HR (%EHR-Predicted) was calculated. Next, patients were randomized into the land or water exercise group. One blinded investigator instructed the patients in each group to exercise at a level between ""relatively easy and slightly tiring"". The mean HR throughout the 30-min exercise session was recorded. The %EHR-AT and %EHR-Predicted did not differ between the land and water exercisegroups, but they differed in the %EHR-RCP (95 +/- 7 to 86 +/- 7. P<0.001) and in the %EHR-Peak (85 +/- 8 to 78 +/- 9, P=0.007). Conclusions: Exercise guided by the Borg scale maintains the patient's HR between the anaerobic threshold and respiratory compensation point (ie, in the exercise training zone). (Circ J 2009; 73: 1871-1876)

Long-acting injectable risperidone in partially adherent and nonadherent patients with schizophrenia

Background: Long-acting injectable antipsychotics may improve medication adherence, thereby improving overall treatment effectiveness. This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness, safety, and tolerability of risperidone long-acting injection in schizophrenic patients switched from oral antipsychotic medication. Methods: In a 12-month, multicenter, open-label, noncomparative study, symptomatically stable patients on oral antipsychotic medication with poor treatment adherence during the previous 12 months received intramuscular injections of risperidone long-acting injection (25 mg starting dose) every 2 weeks. The primary endpoint was the change in Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) total score. Results: Of the 60 patients who were screened, 53 received at least one injection (safety population), and 51 provided at least one postbaseline assessment. Mean PANSS total scores improved significantly throughout the study and at endpoint. Significant improvements were also observed in Clinical Global Impression of Severity, Personal and Social Performance, and Drug Attitude Inventory scales. Risperidone long-acting injection was safe and well-tolerated. Severity of movement disorders on the Extrapyramidal Symptom Rating Scale was reduced significantly. The most frequently reported adverse events were insomnia (22.6%), increased prolactin (17.0%), and weight gain (13.2%). Conclusion: Risperidone long-acting injection was associated with significant symptomatic improvements in stable patients with schizophrenia following a switch from previous antipsychotic medications.

A Paradigm Shift in Predoctoral Dental Curricula in Brazil: Evaluating the Process of Change

In 2002, the Brazilian Ministry of Education approved the official curricular guidelines for undergraduate courses in Brazil to be adopted by the nation's 188 dental schools. In 2005-06, the Brazilian Dental Education Association (BDEA) promoted workshops in forty-eight of the schools to verify the degree of transformation of the curriculum based on these guidelines. Among the areas analyzed were course philosophy (variables were v1: knowledge production based on the needs of the Brazilian Public Health System [BPHS]; v2: health determinants; and v3: postgraduate studies and permanent education); pedagogical skills (v4: curricular structure; v5: changes in pedagogic and didactic skills; and v6: course program orientation); and dental practice scenarios (v7: diversity of the scenarios for training/learning; v8: academic health care centers opened to the BPHS; and v9: participation of students in health care delivery for the population). The subjects consisted of faculty members (n=711), students (n=228), and employees (n=14). The results showed an incipient degree of curriculum transformation. The degree of innovation was statistically different depending on the type of university (public or private) for variables I, 2, 4, 5, 6, and 7. Private schools reported a higher level of innovation than public institutions. Resistance to transforming the dental curriculum according to the official guidelines may be linked to an ideological conception that supports the private practice model, continues to have faculty members direct all classroom activities, and prevents students from developing an understanding of professional practice as targeted towards the oral health needs of all segments of society.

The Coupled Aerosol and Tracer Transport model to the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (CATT-BRAMS) - Part 1: Model description and evaluation

We introduce the Coupled Aerosol and Tracer Transport model to the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (CATT-BRAMS). CATT-BRAMS is an on-line transport model fully consistent with the simulated atmospheric dynamics. Emission sources from biomass burning and urban-industrial-vehicular activities for trace gases and from biomass burning aerosol particles are obtained from several published datasets and remote sensing information. The tracer and aerosol mass concentration prognostics include the effects of sub-grid scale turbulence in the planetary boundary layer, convective transport by shallow and deep moist convection, wet and dry deposition, and plume rise associated with vegetation fires in addition to the grid scale transport. The radiation parameterization takes into account the interaction between the simulated biomass burning aerosol particles and short and long wave radiation. The atmospheric model BRAMS is based on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), with several improvements associated with cumulus convection representation, soil moisture initialization and surface scheme tuned for the tropics, among others. In this paper the CATT-BRAMS model is used to simulate carbon monoxide and particulate material (PM(2.5)) surface fluxes and atmospheric transport during the 2002 LBA field campaigns, conducted during the transition from the dry to wet season in the southwest Amazon Basin. Model evaluation is addressed with comparisons between model results and near surface, radiosondes and airborne measurements performed during the field campaign, as well as remote sensing derived products. We show the matching of emissions strengths to observed carbon monoxide in the LBA campaign. A relatively good comparison to the MOPITT data, in spite of the fact that MOPITT a priori assumptions imply several difficulties, is also obtained.

The viscosity parameter's dependence on the profile of the disk scale height

It is shown that, for accretion disks, the height scale is a constant whenever hydrostatic equilibrium and the subsonic turbulence regime hold in the disk. In order to have a variable height scale, processes are needed that contribute an extra term to the continuity equation. This contribution makes the viscosity parameter much greater in the outer region and much smaller in the inner region. Under these circumstances, turbulence is the presumable source of viscosity in the disk.

Large change in the predicted number of small halos due to a small amplitude oscillating inflaton potential

A smooth inflaton potential is generally assumed when calculating the primordial power spectrum, implicitly assuming that a very small oscillation in the inflaton potential creates a negligible change in the predicted halo mass function. We show that this is not true. We find that a small oscillating perturbation in the inflaton potential in the slow-roll regime can alter significantly the predicted number of small halos. A class of models derived from supergravity theories gives rise to inflaton potentials with a large number of steps and many trans-Planckian effects may generate oscillations in the primordial power spectrum. The potentials we study are the simple quadratic (chaotic inflation) potential with superimposed small oscillations for small field values. Without leaving the slow-roll regime, we find that for a wide choice of parameters, the predicted number of halos change appreciably. For the oscillations beginning in the 10(7)-10(8) M(circle dot) range, for example, we find that only a 5% change in the amplitude of the chaotic potential causes a 50% suppression of the number of halos for masses between 10(7)-10(8) M(circle dot) and an increase in the number of halos for masses <10(6) M(circle dot) by factors similar to 15-50. We suggest that this might be a solution to the problem of the lack of observed dwarf galaxies in the range 10(7)-10(8) M(circle dot). This might also be a solution to the reionization problem where a very large number of Population III stars in low mass halos are required.

A FIRST CONSTRAINT ON THE THICK DISK SCALE LENGTH: DIFFERENTIAL RADIAL ABUNDANCES IN K GIANTS AT GALACTOCENTRIC RADII 4, 8, AND 12 kpc

Based on high-resolution spectra obtained with the MIKE spectrograph on the Magellan telescopes, we present detailed elemental abundances for 20 red giant stars in the outer Galactic disk, located at Galactocentric distances between 9 and 13 kpc. The outer disk sample is complemented with samples of red giants from the inner Galactic disk and the solar neighborhood, analyzed using identical methods. For Galactocentric distances beyond 10 kpc, we only find chemical patterns associated with the local thin disk, even for stars far above the Galactic plane. Our results show that the relative densities of the thick and thin disks are dramatically different from the solar neighborhood, and we therefore suggest that the radial scale length of the thick disk is much shorter than that of the thin disk. We make a first estimate of the thick disk scale length of L(thick) = 2.0 kpc, assuming L(thin) = 3.8 kpc for the thin disk. We suggest that radial migration may explain the lack of radial age, metallicity, and abundance gradients in the thick disk, possibly also explaining the link between the thick disk and the metal-poor bulge.

Beyond the Fragmentation Threshold Hypothesis: Regime Shifts in Biodiversity Across Fragmented Landscapes

Ecological systems are vulnerable to irreversible change when key system properties are pushed over thresholds, resulting in the loss of resilience and the precipitation of a regime shift. Perhaps the most important of such properties in human-modified landscapes is the total amount of remnant native vegetation. In a seminal study Andren proposed the existence of a fragmentation threshold in the total amount of remnant vegetation, below which landscape-scale connectivity is eroded and local species richness and abundance become dependent on patch size. Despite the fact that species patch-area effects have been a mainstay of conservation science there has yet to be a robust empirical evaluation of this hypothesis. Here we present and test a new conceptual model describing the mechanisms and consequences of biodiversity change in fragmented landscapes, identifying the fragmentation threshold as a first step in a positive feedback mechanism that has the capacity to impair ecological resilience, and drive a regime shift in biodiversity. The model considers that local extinction risk is defined by patch size, and immigration rates by landscape vegetation cover, and that the recovery from local species losses depends upon the landscape species pool. Using a unique dataset on the distribution of non-volant small mammals across replicate landscapes in the Atlantic forest of Brazil, we found strong evidence for our model predictions - that patch-area effects are evident only at intermediate levels of total forest cover, where landscape diversity is still high and opportunities for enhancing biodiversity through local management are greatest. Furthermore, high levels of forest loss can push native biota through an extinction filter, and result in the abrupt, landscape-wide loss of forest-specialist taxa, ecological resilience and management effectiveness. The proposed model links hitherto distinct theoretical approaches within a single framework, providing a powerful tool for analysing the potential effectiveness of management interventions.

A comparison of dry and wet season aerosol number fluxes over the Amazon rain forest

Vertical number fluxes of aerosol particles and vertical fluxes of CO(2) were measured with the eddy covariance method at the top of a 53 m high tower in the Amazon rain forest as part of the LBA (The Large Scale Biosphere Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia) experiment. The observed aerosol number fluxes included particles with sizes down to 10 nm in diameter. The measurements were carried out during the wet and dry season in 2008. In this study focus is on the dry season aerosol fluxes, with significant influence from biomass burning, and these are compared with aerosol fluxes measured during the wet season. Net particle deposition fluxes dominated in daytime in both seasons and the deposition flux was considerably larger in the dry season due to the much higher dry season particle concentration. The particle transfer velocity increased linearly with increasing friction velocity in both seasons. The difference in transfer velocity between the two seasons was small, indicating that the seasonal change in aerosol number size distribution is not enough for causing any significant change in deposition velocity. In general, particle transfer velocities in this study are low compared to studies over boreal forests. The reasons are probably the high percentage of accumulation mode particles and the low percentage of nucleation mode particles in the Amazon boundary layer, both in the dry and wet season, and low wind speeds in the tropics compared to the midlatitudes. In the dry season, nocturnal particle fluxes behaved very similar to the nocturnal CO(2) fluxes. Throughout the night, the measured particle flux at the top of the tower was close to zero, but early in the morning there was an upward particle flux peak that is not likely a result of entrainment or local pollution. It is possible that these morning upward particle fluxes are associated with emission of primary biogenic particles from the rain forest. Emitted particles may be stored within the canopy during stable conditions at nighttime, similarly to CO(2), and being released from the canopy when conditions become more turbulent in the morning.

Atomic scale characterization of Mn doped InAs/GaAs quantum dots

Several growth procedures for doping InAs/GaAs quantum dots (QDs) with manganese (Mn) have been investigated with cross-sectional scanning tunneling microscopy. It is found that expulsion of Mn out of the QDs and subsequent segregation makes it difficult to incorporate Mn in the QDs even at low growth temperatures of T=320 degrees C and high Mn fluxes. Mn atoms in and around QDs have been observed with strain and potential confinement changing the appearance of the Mn features.

Determination of the molecular weight of proteins in solution from a single small-angle X-ray scattering measurement on a relative scale

This paper describes a new and simple method to determine the molecular weight of proteins in dilute solution, with an error smaller than similar to 10%, by using the experimental data of a single small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) curve measured on a relative scale. This procedure does not require the measurement of SAXS intensity on an absolute scale and does not involve a comparison with another SAXS curve determined from a known standard protein. The proposed procedure can be applied to monodisperse systems of proteins in dilute solution, either in monomeric or multimeric state, and it has been successfully tested on SAXS data experimentally determined for proteins with known molecular weights. It is shown here that the molecular weights determined by this procedure deviate from the known values by less than 10% in each case and the average error for the test set of 21 proteins was 5.3%. Importantly, this method allows for an unambiguous determination of the multimeric state of proteins with known molecular weights.

Effective coordination concept applied for phase change (GeTe)(m)(Sb(2)Te(3))(n) compounds

In this work, we employed the effective coordination concept to study the local environments of the Ge, Sb, and Te atoms in the Ge(m)Sb(2n)Te(m+3n) compounds. From our calculations and analysis, we found an average effective coordination number (ECN) reduction of 1.59, 1.42, and 1.37, for the Ge, Sb, Te atoms in the phase transition from crystalline, ECN=5.55 (Ge), 5.73 (Sb), 4.37 (Te), to the amorphous phase, ECN=3.96 (Ge), 4.31 (Sb), 3.09 (Te), for the Ge(2)Sb(2)Te(5) composition. Similar changes are observed for other compositions. Thus, our results indicate that the coordination changes from the crystalline to amorphous phase are not large as previously assumed in the literature, i.e., from sixfold to fourfold for Ge, which can contribute to obtain a better understanding of the crystalline to amorphous phase transition. (C) 2011 American Institute of Physics. [doi:10.1063/1.3533422]