Knowledge acquisition by networks of interacting agents in the presence of observation errors

In this work we investigate knowledge acquisition as performed by multiple agents interacting as they infer, under the presence of observation errors, respective models of a complex system. We focus the specific case in which, at each time step, each agent takes into account its current observation as well as the average of the models of its neighbors. The agents are connected by a network of interaction of Erdos-Renyi or Barabasi-Albert type. First, we investigate situations in which one of the agents has a different probability of observation error (higher or lower). It is shown that the influence of this special agent over the quality of the models inferred by the rest of the network can be substantial, varying linearly with the respective degree of the agent with different estimation error. In case the degree of this agent is taken as a respective fitness parameter, the effect of the different estimation error is even more pronounced, becoming superlinear. To complement our analysis, we provide the analytical solution of the overall performance of the system. We also investigate the knowledge acquisition dynamic when the agents are grouped into communities. We verify that the inclusion of edges between agents (within a community) having higher probability of observation error promotes the loss of quality in the estimation of the agents in the other communities.

Collision probabilities in the rarefaction fan of asymmetric exclusion processes

We consider the one-dimensional asymmetric simple exclusion process (ASEP) in which particles jump to the right at rate p is an element of (1/2, 1.] and to the left at rate 1 - p, interacting by exclusion. In the initial state there is a finite region such that to the left of this region all sites are occupied and to the right of it all sites are empty. Under this initial state, the hydrodynamical limit of the process converges to the rarefaction fan of the associated Burgers equation. In particular suppose that the initial state has first-class particles to the left of the origin, second-class particles at sites 0 and I, and holes to the right of site I. We show that the probability that the two second-class particles eventually collide is (1 + p)/(3p), where a collision occurs when one of the particles attempts to jump over the other. This also corresponds to the probability that two ASEP processes. started from appropriate initial states and coupled using the so-called ""basic coupling,"" eventually reach the same state. We give various other results about the behaviour of second-class particles in the ASEP. In the totally asymmetric case (p = 1) we explain a further representation in terms of a multi-type particle system, and also use the collision result to derive the probability of coexistence of both clusters in a two-type version of the corner growth model.

Coexistence of forest and savanna in an Amazonian area from a geological perspective

Question: How can the coexistence of savanna and forest in Amazonian areas with relatively uniform climates be explained? Location: Eastern Marajo Island, northeast Amazonia, Brazil. Methods: The study integrated floristic analysis, terrain morphology, sedimentology and delta(13)C of soil organic matter. Floristic analysis involved rapid ecological assessment of 33 sites, determination of occurrence, specific richness, hierarchical distribution and matrix of floristic similarity between paired vegetation types. Terrain characterization was based on analysis of Landsat images using 4(R), 5(G) and 7(B) composition and digital elevation model (DEM). Sedimentology involved field descriptions of surface and core sediments. Finally, radiocarbon dating and analysis of delta(13)C of soil profile organic matter and natural ecotone forest-savanna was undertaken. Results: Slight tectonic subsidence in eastern Marajo Island favours seasonal flooding, making it unsuitable for forest growth. However, this area displays slightly convex-up, sinuous morphologies related to paleochannels, covered by forest. Terra-firme lowland forests are expanding from west to east, preferentially occupying paleochannels and replacing savanna. Slack, running water during channel abandonment leads to disappearance of varzea/gallery forest at channel margins. Long-abandoned channels sustain continuous terra-firme forests, because of longer times for more species to establish. Recently abandoned channels have had less time to become sites for widespread tree development, and are either not vegetated or covered by savanna. Conclusion: Landforms in eastern Marajo Island reflect changes in the physical environment due to reactivation of tectonic faults during the latest Quaternary. This promoted a dynamic history of channel abandonment, which controlled a set of interrelated parameters (soil type, topography, hydrology) that determined species location. Inclusion of a geological perspective for paleoenvironmental reconstruction can increase understanding of plant distribution in Amazonia.

Successful maintenance of a stingless bee population despite a severe genetic bottleneck

Stingless bees play an important ecological role as pollinators of many wild plant species in the tropics and have significant potential for the pollination of agricultural crops. Nevertheless, conservation efforts as well as commercial breeding programmes require better guidelines on the amount of genetic variation that is needed to maintain viable populations. In this context, we carried out a long-term genetic study on the stingless bee Melipona scutellaris to evaluate the population viability consequences of prolonged breeding from a small number of founder colonies. In particular, it was artificially imposed a genetic bottleneck by setting up a population starting from only two founder colonies, and continued breeding from it for a period of over 10 years in a location outside its natural area of occurrence. We show that despite a great reduction in the number of alleles present at both neutral microsatellite loci and the sex-determining locus relative to its natural source population, and an increased frequency in the production of sterile diploid males, the genetically impoverished population could be successfully bred and maintained for at least 10 years. This shows that in stingless bees, breeding from a small stock of colonies may have less severe consequences than previously suspected. In addition, we provide a simulation model to determine the number of colonies that are needed to maintain a certain number of sex alleles in a population, thereby providing useful guidelines for stingless bee breeding and conservation efforts.

Cluster identification and characterization in the riser of a circulating fluidized bed from numerical simulation results

A methodology of identification and characterization of coherent structures mostly known as clusters is applied to hydrodynamic results of numerical simulation generated for the riser of a circulating fluidized bed. The numerical simulation is performed using the MICEFLOW code, which includes the two-fluids IIT`s hydrodynamic model B. The methodology for cluster characterization that is used is based in the determination of four characteristics, related to average life time, average volumetric fraction of solid, existing time fraction and frequency of occurrence. The identification of clusters is performed by applying a criterion related to the time average value of the volumetric solid fraction. A qualitative rather than quantitative analysis is performed mainly owing to the unavailability of operational data used in the considered experiments. Concerning qualitative analysis, the simulation results are in good agreement with literature. Some quantitative comparisons between predictions and experiment were also presented to emphasize the capability of the modeling procedure regarding the analysis of macroscopic scale coherent structures. (c) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk-based decision making method for maintenance policy selection of thermal power plant equipment

This study presents a decision-making method for maintenance policy selection of power plants equipment. The method is based on risk analysis concepts. The method first step consists in identifying critical equipment both for power plant operational performance and availability based on risk concepts. The second step involves the proposal of a potential maintenance policy that could be applied to critical equipment in order to increase its availability. The costs associated with each potential maintenance policy must be estimated, including the maintenance costs and the cost of failure that measures the critical equipment failure consequences for the power plant operation. Once the failure probabilities and the costs of failures are estimated, a decision-making procedure is applied to select the best maintenance policy. The decision criterion is to minimize the equipment cost of failure, considering the costs and likelihood of occurrence of failure scenarios. The method is applied to the analysis of a lubrication oil system used in gas turbines journal bearings. The turbine has more than 150 MW nominal output, installed in an open cycle thermoelectric power plant. A design modification with the installation of a redundant oil pump is proposed for lubricating oil system availability improvement. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Human Error Contribution in Collision and Grounding of Oil Tankers

The purpose of this article is to present a quantitative analysis of the human failure contribution in the collision and/or grounding of oil tankers, considering the recommendation of the ""Guidelines for Formal Safety Assessment"" of the International Maritime Organization. Initially, the employed methodology is presented, emphasizing the use of the technique for human error prediction to reach the desired objective. Later, this methodology is applied to a ship operating on the Brazilian coast and, thereafter, the procedure to isolate the human actions with the greatest potential to reduce the risk of an accident is described. Finally, the management and organizational factors presented in the ""International Safety Management Code"" are associated with these selected actions. Therefore, an operator will be able to decide where to work in order to obtain an effective reduction in the probability of accidents. Even though this study does not present a new methodology, it can be considered as a reference in the human reliability analysis for the maritime industry, which, in spite of having some guides for risk analysis, has few studies related to human reliability effectively applied to the sector.

Evaluation of algorithms used to order markers on genetic maps

When building genetic maps, it is necessary to choose from several marker ordering algorithms and criteria, and the choice is not always simple. In this study, we evaluate the efficiency of algorithms try (TRY), seriation (SER), rapid chain delineation (RCD), recombination counting and ordering (RECORD) and unidirectional growth (UG), as well as the criteria PARF (product of adjacent recombination fractions), SARF (sum of adjacent recombination fractions), SALOD (sum of adjacent LOD scores) and LHMC (likelihood through hidden Markov chains), used with the RIPPLE algorithm for error verification, in the construction of genetic linkage maps. A linkage map of a hypothetical diploid and monoecious plant species was simulated containing one linkage group and 21 markers with fixed distance of 3 cM between them. In all, 700 F(2) populations were randomly simulated with and 400 individuals with different combinations of dominant and co-dominant markers, as well as 10 and 20% of missing data. The simulations showed that, in the presence of co-dominant markers only, any combination of algorithm and criteria may be used, even for a reduced population size. In the case of a smaller proportion of dominant markers, any of the algorithms and criteria (except SALOD) investigated may be used. In the presence of high proportions of dominant markers and smaller samples (around 100), the probability of repulsion linkage increases between them and, in this case, use of the algorithms TRY and SER associated to RIPPLE with criterion LHMC would provide better results. Heredity (2009) 103, 494-502; doi:10.1038/hdy.2009.96; published online 29 July 2009

Spatial heterogeneity of leaf wetness duration in apple trees and its influence on performance of a warning system for sooty blotch and flyspeck

To determine the effect of sensor placement on the performance of a disease-warning system for sooty blotch and flyspeck (SBFS), we measured leaf wetness duration (LWD) at 12 canopy positions in apple trees, then simulated operation of the disease-warning system using LWD measurements from different parts of the canopy. LWD sensors were placed in four trees within one Iowa orchard during two growing seasons, and in one tree in each of four orchards during a single growing season. The LWD measurements revealed substantial heterogeneity among sensor locations. In all data sets, the upper, eastern portion of the canopy had the longest mean daily LWD, and was the first site to form dew and the last to dry. The lower, western portion of the canopy averaged about 3 It less LWD per day than the top of the canopy, and was the last zone where dew formed and the first to dry off. On about 25% of nights when dew occurred in the top of the canopy, no dew formed in the lower, western canopy. Intracanopy variability of LWD was more pronounced when dew was the sole source of wetness than on days when rainfall occurred. Daily LWD in the upper, eastern portion of the canopy was slightly less than reference measurements made at a 0.7-m height over turfgrass located near the orchard. When LWD measurements from several canopy positions were input to the SBFS warning system, timing of occurrence of a fungicide-spray threshold varied by as much as 30 days among canopy positions. Under Iowa conditions, placement of an LWD sensor at an unobstructed site over turfgrass was a fairly accurate surrogate for the wettest part of the canopy. Therefore, such an extra-canopy LWD sensor might be substituted for a within-canopy sensor to enhance operational reliability of the SBFS warning system.

Myocardial scintigraphy and clinical stratification as predictors of events in renal transplant candidates

Background: We tested the hypothesis that the universal application of myocardial scanning with single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) would result in better risk stratification in renal transplant candidates (RTC) compared with SPECT being restricted to patients who, in addition to renal disease, had other clinical risk factors. Methods: RTCs (n=363) underwent SPECT and clinical risk stratification according to the American Society of Transplantation (AST) algorithm and were followed up until a major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) or death. Results: Of the 363 patients, 79 patients (22%) had an abnormal SPECT scan and 270 (74%) were classified as high risk. Both methods correctly identified patients with increased probability of MACE. However, clinical stratification performed better (sensitivity and negative predictive value 99% and 99% vs. 25% and 87%, respectively). High-risk patients with an abnormal SPECT scan had a modest increased risk of events (log-rank = 0.03; hazard ratio [HR] = 1.37; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.02-1.82). Eighty-six patients underwent coronary angiography, and coronary artery disease (CAD) was found in 60%. High-risk patients with CAD had an increased incidence of events (log-rank = 0.008; HR=3.85; 95% CI, 1.46-13.22), but in those with an abnormal SPECT scan, the incidence of events was not influenced by CAD (log-rank = 0.23). Forty-six patients died. Clinical stratification, but not SPECT, correlated with the probability of death (log-rank = 0.02; HR=3.25; 95% CI, 1.31-10.82). Conclusion: SPECT should be restricted to high-risk patients. Moreover, in contrast to SPECT, the AST algorithm was also useful for predicting death by any cause in RTCs and for selecting patients for invasive coronary testing.

The Absence of Coronary Calcification Does Not Exclude Obstructive Coronary Artery Disease or the Need for Revascularization in Patients Referred for Conventional Coronary Angiography

Objectives This study was designed to evaluate whether the absence of coronary calcium could rule out >= 50% coronary stenosis or the need for revascularization. Background The latest American Heart Association guidelines suggest that a calcium score (CS) of zero might exclude the need for coronary angiography among symptomatic patients. Methods A substudy was made of the CORE64 (Coronary Evaluation Using Multi-Detector Spiral Computed Tomography Angiography Using 64 Detectors) multicenter trial comparing the diagnostic performance of 64-detector computed tomography to conventional angiography. Patients clinically referred for conventional angiography were asked to undergo a CS scan up to 30 days before. Results In all, 291 patients were included, of whom 214 (73%) were male, and the mean age was 59.3 +/- 10.0 years. A total of 14 (5%) patients had low, 218 (75%) had intermediate, and 59 (20%) had high pre-test probability of obstructive coronary artery disease. The overall prevalence of >= 50% stenosis was 56%. A total of 72 patients had CS = 0, among whom 14 (19%) had at least 1 >= 50% stenosis. The overall sensitivity for CS = 0 to predict the absence of >= 50% stenosis was 45%, specificity was 91%, negative predictive value was 68%, and positive predictive value was 81%. Additionally, revascularization was performed in 9 (12.5%) CS = 0 patients within 30 days of the CS. From a total of 383 vessels without any coronary calcification, 47 (12%) presented with >= 50% stenosis; and from a total of 64 totally occluded vessels, 13 (20%) had no calcium. Conclusions The absence of coronary calcification does not exclude obstructive stenosis or the need for revascularization among patients with high enough suspicion of coronary artery disease to be referred for coronary angiography, in contrast with the published recommendations. Total coronary occlusion frequently occurs in the absence of any detectable calcification. (Coronary Evaluation Using Multi-Detector Spiral Computed Tomography Angiography Using 64 Detectors [CORE-64]; NCT00738218) (J Am Coll Cardiol 2010;55:627-34) (C) 2010 by the American College of Cardiology Foundation

The Use of Smell Identification Tests in the Diagnosis of Parkinson`s Disease in Brazil

Smell identification tests may be of routine clinical value in the differential diagnosis of PD but are subject to cultural variation and have not been systematically evaluated in the Brazilian population. We have applied culturally adapted translations of the University of Pennsylvania 40-item smell identification test (UPSIT-40) and the 16-item identification test from Sniffin` Sticks (SS-16) to nondemented Brazilian PD patients and controls. Pearson`s correlation coefficient between the test scores was 0.76 (95% CI 0.70-0.81, n = 204, P < 0.001). To calculate reliability measures for each test we used the diagnosis (either PD or control) as outcome variable for separate logistic regression analyses using the score in the UPSIT-40 or the SS-16 as a covariate. The SS-16 specificity was 89.0% with a sensitivity of 81.1% (106 PD and 118 controls). The UPSIT-40 specificity was 83.5% and its sensitivity 82.1% (95 PD and 109 controls). Regression curves were used to associate an individual`s smell test score with the probability of belonging to the PD, as opposed to the control group. Our data provide support for the use of the UPSIT-40 and SS-16 to help distinguish early PD from controls. (c) 2008 Movement Disorder Society

Validation of a strategy to diagnose coronary artery disease and predict cardiac events in high-risk renal transplant candidates

Background We validated a strategy for diagnosis of coronary artery disease ( CAD) and prediction of cardiac events in high-risk renal transplant candidates ( at least one of the following: age >= 50 years, diabetes, cardiovascular disease). Methods A diagnosis and risk assessment strategy was used in 228 renal transplant candidates to validate an algorithm. Patients underwent dipyridamole myocardial stress testing and coronary angiography and were followed up until death, renal transplantation, or cardiac events. Results The prevalence of CAD was 47%. Stress testing did not detect significant CAD in 1/3 of patients. The sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of the stress test for detecting CAD were 70, 74, 69, and 71%, respectively. CAD, defined by angiography, was associated with increased probability of cardiac events [log-rank: 0.001; hazard ratio: 1.90, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.29-2.92]. Diabetes (P=0.03; hazard ratio: 1.58, 95% CI: 1.06-2.45) and angiographically defined CAD (P=0.03; hazard ratio: 1.69, 95% CI: 1.08-2.78) were the independent predictors of events. Conclusion The results validate our observations in a smaller number of high-risk transplant candidates and indicate that stress testing is not appropriate for the diagnosis of CAD or prediction of cardiac events in this group of patients. Coronary angiography was correlated with events but, because less than 50% of patients had significant disease, it seems premature to recommend the test to all high-risk renal transplant candidates. The results suggest that angiography is necessary in many high-risk renal transplant candidates and that better noninvasive methods are still lacking to identify with precision patients who will benefit from invasive procedures. Coron Artery Dis 21: 164-167 (C) 2010 Wolters Kluwer Health vertical bar Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

Behavior Profile of Family Members of Donors and Nondonors of Organs

Organ transplant shortage is a global problem caused by several factors, most of which are related to members of the family, who play it major role in the donation process. Objective. We sought to determine the most determinant features in the donor profile that relate to positive decisions versus refusal of donation. Material and Methods. Fifty-six families who were approached by the Organ Procurement Organization (OPO) from November 2004 to April 2006 agreed to participate in this work. To assess donor profiles, we used it structured interview. Results. Parental involvement directly in decisions about donation lead to significantly less frequent consent (P = .005), young donor age was associated with a reduced probability of donation (P = .002), violent death negatively influenced donation consent, excluding suicide (P = .004). Conclusion. The present study showed violent death, young patient age, and parental donation consent to be the most important factors that make it harder to obtain consent organ donation. When a collateral relative (sibling/uncle) or children were responsible for the donation decision, there was more success of consent.

Endostatin- and interleukin-2-expressing retroviral bicistronic vector for gene therapy of metastatic renal cell carcinoma

Background Metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC) is one of the most treatment-resistant malignancies. Despite all new therapeutic advances, almost all patients develop resistance to treatment and cure is rarely seen. In the present study, we evaluated the antitumor effect of a bicistronic retrovirus vector encoding both endostatin (ES) and interleukin (IL)-2 using an orthotopic metastatic RCC mouse model. Methods Balb/C-bearing Renca cells were treated with NIH/3T3-LendIRES-IL-2-SN cells. In the survival studies, mice were monitored daily until they died. At the end of the in vivo experiment, serum levels of IL-2 and ES were measured, the lung was weighed, and the number of metastatic nodules, nodule area, tumor vessels and proliferation of tumor-infiltrating Renca cells were determined. Results Inoculation of NIH/3T3-LendIRES-IL-2-SN cells resulted in an increase in ES and IL-2 levels in the treated group (p < 0.05). There was a significant decrease in lung wet weight, lung nodule area and tumor vessels in the treated group compared to the control group (p < 0.001). The proliferation of Renca cells in the bicistronic-treated group was significantly reduced compared to the control group (p < 0.05). Kaplan-Meier survival curves showed that the probability of survival was significantly higher for mice submitted to bicistronic therapy (log-rank test, p = 0.0016). Bicistronic therapy caused an increase in the infiltration of CD4, CD4 interferon (IFN)gamma-producing, CD8, CD8 IFN gamma-producing and natural killer (CD49b) cells. Conclusions Retroviral bicistronic gene transfer led to the secretion of functional ES and IL-2 that was sufficiently active to: (i) inhibit tumor angiogenesis and tumor cell proliferation and (ii) increase the infiltration of immune cells (C) Copyright. 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.