49 resultados para predictive value
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The guidelines proposed by the Kidney Disease Outcomes Quality Initiative (K/DOQI) suggested that intact parathyroid hormone (iPTH) should be maintained in a target range between 150 and 300 pg ml(-1) for patients with stage 5 chronic kidney disease. Our study sought to verify the effectiveness of that range in preventing bone remodeling problems in hemodialysis patients. We measured serum ionized calcium and phosphorus while iPTH was measured by a second-generation assay. Transiliac bone biopsies were performed at the onset of the study and after completing 1 year follow-up. The PTH levels decreased within the target range in about one-fourth of the patients at baseline and at the end of the study. The bone biopsies of two-thirds of the patients were classified as showing low turnover and a one-fourth showed high turnover, the remainder having normal turnover. In the group achieving the target levels of iPTH 88% had low turnover. Intact PTH levels less than 150 pg ml(-1) for identifying low turnover and greater than 300 pg ml(-1) for high turnover presented a positive predictive value of 83 and 62%, respectively. Our study suggests that the iPTH target recommended by the K/DOQI guidelines was associated with a high incidence of low-turnover bone disease, suggesting that other biochemical markers may be required to accurately measure bone-remodeling status in hemodialysis patients.
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Aortic valve calcium (AVC) can be quantified on the same computed tomographic scan as coronary artery calcium (CAC). Although CAC is an established predictor of cardiovascular events, limited evidence is available for an independent predictive value for AVC. We studied a cohort of 8,401 asymptomatic subjects (mean age 53 10 years, 69% men), who were free of known coronary heart disease and were undergoing electron beam computed tomography for assessment of subclinical atherosclerosis. The patients were followed for a median of 5 years (range 1 to 7) for the occurrence of mortality from any cause. Multivariate Cox regression models were developed to predict all-cause mortality according to the presence of AVC. A total of 517 patients (6%) had AVC on electron beam computed tomography. During follow-up, 124 patients died (1.5%), for an overall survival rate of 96.1% and 98.7% for those with and without AVC, respectively (hazard ratio 3.39, 95% confidence interval 2.09 to 5.49). After adjustment for age, gender, hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes mellitus, smoking, and a family history of premature coronary heart disease, AVC remained a significant predictor of mortality (hazard ratio 1.82, 95% confidence interval 1.11 to 2.98). Likelihood ratio chi-square statistics demonstrated that the addition of AVC contributed significantly to the prediction of mortality in a model adjusted for traditional risk factors (chi-square = 5.03, p = 0.03) as well as traditional risk factors plus the presence of CAC (chi-square = 3.58, p = 0.05). In conclusion, AVC was associated with increased all-cause mortality, independent of the traditional risk factors and the presence of CAC. (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier Inc. (Am J Cardiol 2010;106:1787-1791)
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Introduction: Lower urinary tract symptoms ( LUTS) are common in men over 50 years of age due to prostate enlargement. Diabetes mellitus is also more prevalent in this group. LUTS may result from bladder outlet obstruction ( BOO) secondary to prostate enlargement or bladder dysfunction secondary to diabetes or even from a combination of both. Objectives: The objective of this study was to determine the prevalence of BOO and other urodynamic abnormalities in diabetic patients with LUTS and enlarged prostate. A secondary objective was to assess the predictive value of non-invasive tests for BOO diagnosis in this group of patients. Patients and Methods: 50 consecutive diabetic patients with enlarged prostate and LUTS were evaluated by the International Prostate Symptom Score ( IPSS), ultra sonography and urodynamics. BOO diagnosis was based on pressure/ flow measurements according to the International Continence Society`s standards. Results: Of the 50 patients in the study, 23 ( 46%) had BOO. There was no correlation between the IPSS, uroflowmetry, post- voiding residual urine or prostate volume and the presence of BOO ( p > 0.05). Conclusions: There is a relatively low prevalence of BOO in diabetic patients with prostate enlargement and LUTS. Non- invasive tests did not allow the identification of these subjects. Only urodynamic evaluation is able to determine symptom etiology. Copyright (c) 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel.
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Background: Real time myocardial contrast echocardiography (RTMCE) is an emerging imaging modality for assessing myocardial perfusion that allows for noninvasive quantification of regional myocardial blood flow (MBF). Aim: We sought to assess the value of qualitative analysis of myocardial perfusion and quantitative assessment of myocardial blood flow (MBF) by RTMCE for predicting regional function recovery in patients with ischemic heart disease who underwent coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). Methods: Twenty-four patients with coronary disease and left ventricular systolic dysfunction (ejection fraction < 45%) underwent RTMCE before and 3 months after CABG. RTMCE was performed using continuous intravenous infusion of commercially available contrast agent with low mechanical index power modulation imaging. Viability was defined by qualitative assessment of myocardial perfusion as homogenous opacification at rest in >= 2 segments of anterior or >= 1 segment of posterior territory. Viability by quantitative assessment of MBF was determined by receiver-operating characteristics curve analysis. Results: Regional function recovery was observed in 74% of territories considered viable by qualitative analysis of myocardial perfusion and 40% of nonviable (P = 0.03). Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of qualitative RTMCE for detecting regional function recovery were 74%, 60%, 77%, and 56%, respectively. Cutoff value of MBF for predicting regional function recovery was 1.76 (AUC = 0.77; 95% CI = 0.62-0.92). MBF obtained by RTMCE had sensitivity of 91%, specificity of 50%, positive predictive value of 75%, and negative predictive value of 78%. Conclusion: Qualitative and quantitative RTMCE provide good accuracy for predicting regional function recovery after CABG. Determination of MBF increases the sensitivity for detecting hibernating myocardium. (Echocardiography 2011;28:342-349).
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Nuclear fluorescence in keratinocytes is an occasional phenomenon, often present in autoimmune diseases, especially in connective-tissue disease (CTD); however, its clinical significance remains unclear. To investigate the profile of patients with positive nuclear staining on direct immunofluorescence (DIF) of skin samples. A retrospective analysis of 28 patient records from our immunodermatology laboratory was performed between May 2003 and June 2006. Inclusion criteria were the presence of autoantibodies (IgG, IgA or IgM) or complement (C3) binding keratinocyte nuclei on DIF. The most prevalent diseases related to the nuclear keratinocyte DIF staining were systemic lupus erythematosus (n = 9), mixed CTD (n = 3), overlap syndrome (n = 3), Sjogren`s syndrome (n = 1), and CREST (calcinosis, Raynaud`s phenomenon, oesophageal dysmotility, sclerodactyly and telangiectasia) syndrome (n = 1). Serum antinuclear antibody (ANA) was positive in 20 of 28 patients, with titres varying from 1 : 160 to 1 : 1280. Of the 20 patients with positive anti-nuclear antibodies (ANA), 17 were positive for anti-extractable nuclear antigen antibodies, 12 had anti-SSA/Ro, 11 had anti-SSB/La and 8 had anti-ribonucleoprotein. Eight patients were negative for ANA. Positive predictive value of in vivo ANA for systemic CTDs was 75%. The present data suggest that in vivo ANA evaluation is an additional and feasible auxiliary tool for diagnosing CTDs.
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Fogo selvagem (FS) is mediated by pathogenic, predominantly IgG4, anti-desmoglein 1 (Dsg1) autoantibodies and is endemic in Limao Verde, Brazil. IgG and IgG subclass autoantibodies were tested in a sample of 214 FS patients and 261 healthy controls by Dsg1 ELISA. For model selection, the sample was randomly divided into training (50%), validation (25%), and test (25%) sets. Using the training and validation sets, IgG4 was chosen as the best predictor of FS, with index values above 6.43 classified as FS. Using the test set, IgG4 has sensitivity of 92% (95% confidence interval (95% CI): 82-95%), specificity of 97% (95% CI: 89-100%), and area under the curve of 0.97 ( 95% CI: 0.94-1.00). The IgG4 positive predictive value (PPV) in Limao Verde (3% FS prevalence) was 49%. The sensitivity, specificity, and PPV of IgG anti-Dsg1 were 87, 91, and 23%, respectively. The IgG4-based classifier was validated by testing 11 FS patients before and after clinical disease and 60 Japanese pemphigus foliaceus patients. It classified 21 of 96 normal individuals from a Limao Verde cohort as having FS serology. On the basis of its PPV, half of the 21 individuals may currently have preclinical FS and could develop clinical disease in the future. Identifying individuals during preclinical FS will enhance our ability to identify the etiological agent(s) triggering FS.
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Objectives: We evaluated the correlation between the consensus and clinical definitions of pancreatitis following endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP), with the objective of updating and revising the definition of post-ERCP pancreatitis (PEP). Methods: Three hundred patients were subjected to serial serum amylase & lipase levels testing and abdominal computed tomography scan for abdominal pain after ERCP. Main outcome measures included the correlation between consensus and clinical definitions. Results: Using consensus criteria, 25 patients had acute pancreatitis (11 of mild and 14 of moderate severity). Forty-three patients had acute pancreatitis using the clinical definitions (18 of mild and 25 of moderate severity). At 4 hours, serum hyperamylasemia of under 1.5-fold and at 12 hours a serum hyperamylasemia of under 2-fold had a negative predictive value of 0.94 for development of PEP. Serum hyperamylasemia following ERCP had a poor positive predictive value for PEP. Conclusions: Clinical and consensus definitions are poorly correlated; use of the latter leads to significant underrecognition of PEP. The adoption of clinical definition results in uniformity of diagnosis of pancreatitis for clinical care and research. Serum amylase levels at 4 and 12 hours after ERCP have a high negative predictive value for PEP.
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Weight loss and nutritional status 5 or more years after Roux-en-Y gastric bypass was prospectively documented. The hypothesis was that even after clinical adaptation, imbalances might still occur. Seventy-five consecutive patients (age 49.3 +/- 10.6 years, 89.3% females) were recruited 83.4 +/- 14.3 months after the intervention. Weight loss and nutritional abnormalities were registered. Body mass index (BMI) was 56.5 +/- 10.0 preoperatively, 29.4 +/- 6. 2 by 24 months and 34.4 +/- 14.6 when last seen. Major current deficit occurred for magnesium (32.1% of the patients), hemoglobin (50.8%), iron (29.8%), ferritin (36.0%), zinc (40.5%), vitamin B(12) (61.8%), vitamin D(3) (60.5%), and beta-carotene (56.8%). Low preoperative measurements had already been unveiled for iron, transferrin, zinc, and vitamin B(12). Total drug consumption tended to decrease after operation, and present findings correlated with excess weight loss (EWL). Also presence of diabetes and BMI value were predictors of long-term EWL, along with biochemical profile by 2 years. Multivitamin supplementation and gastrointestinal complaints partially correlated with nutritional results. (1) Good initial weight loss with moderate late regain, anemia, and multiple nutrient deficits was the common pattern. (2) Massive weight loss, frequent vomiting, dumping syndrome, and women in reproductive age were risk factors for hemoglobin or vitamin deficits, whereas superobesity, diabetes, and use of multiple drugs were associated with EWL result. (3) Most laboratory tests became stable by 2 years and along with BMI correlated with late EWL. (4) Two-year nutritional investigation is especially recommended because of its long-term predictive value.
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PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to analyze the agreement between anal Pap smear and high-resolution anoscopy-guided biopsy in diagnosing anal dysplasia in HIV-infected patients. METHODS: We conducted cross-sectional analysis of HIV-infected patients receiving anal dysplasia screening as part of routine care. Agreement between measures was estimated by weighted kappa statistics, using a three-tiered cytologic and histologic grading system (normal, low-grade dysplasia, and high-grade dysplasia). Estimates of sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values were calculated using a two-tiered cytologic and histologic grading system (""without dysplasia"" and ""with dysplasia of any grade""). Estimates were also calculated for the detection of high-grade dysplasia. RESULTS: During a one-year period, 222 patients underwent 330 anal Pap smears followed by high-resolution anoscopy-guided biopsies. There were 311 satisfactory Pap smears with concurrent biopsies. Considering histology the standard, the frequency of anal dysplasia was 46%. Kappa agreement between anal Pap smear and biopsy was 0.20. For detection of anal dysplasia of any grade, anal Pap smear showed sensitivity of 61%, specificity of 60%, positive predictive value of 56%, and negative predictive value of 64%. For high-grade dysplasia, anal Pap smear showed sensitivity of 16% and specificity of 97%. CONCLUSION: Anal Pap smears alone were not sensitive enough to rule out anal dysplasia. We recommend that high-resolution anoscopy-guided biopsy be incorporated as a complementary screening test for anal dysplasia in high-risk patients. Following baseline high-resolution anoscopy, these individuals could be followed with serial anal cytology to dictate the need for future high-resolution anoscopy-guided biopsies.
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The objective of this study was to find very early viral kinetic markers to predict nonresponse to hepatitis C virus (HCV) therapy in a group of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/HCV-coinfected patients. Twenty-six patients (15 HCV genotype-1 and 11 genotype-3) were treated with a 48-week regimen of peginterferon-alfa-2a (PEG-IFN) (180 mu g/week) and weight-based ribavirin (11 mg/kg/day). Samples were collected at baseline; 4, 8, 12, 18, 24, 30, 36 and 42 h; days 2, 3, 4, 7, 8, 15, 22, 29, 43 and 57 then weekly and monthly. Five patients discontinued treatment. Seven patients (27%) achieved a sustained virological response (SVR). Nadir HCV RNA levels were observed 1.6 +/- 0.3 days after initiation of therapy, followed by a 0.3- to 12.9-fold viral rebound until the administration of the second dose of PEG-IFN, which were not associated with SVR or HCV genotype. A viral decline < 1.19 log for genotype-1 and < 0.97 log for genotype-3, 2 days after starting therapy, had a negative predictive value (NPV) of 100% for SVR. The day 2 virological response had a similar positive predictive value for SVR as a rapid virological response at week 4. In addition, a second-phase viral decline slope (i.e., measured from day 2 to 29) < 0.3 log/week had a NPV = 100% for SVR. We conclude that first-phase viral decline at day 2 and second-phase viral decline slope (< 0.3 log/week) are excellent predictors of nonresponse. Further studies are needed to validate these viral kinetic parameters as early on-treatment prognosticators of nonresponse in patients with HCV and HIV.
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Objective: To assess the association between the depth of trophoblastic penetration into the tubal wall with serum concentrations of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) and beta-hCG and to assess its predictive value. Design: Prospective study. Setting: Tertiary care university hospital. Patient(s): Thirty patients with ampullary pregnancy undergoing salpingectomy were analyzed. Intervention(s): Trophoblastic invasion was histologically classified as stage I when limited to the tubal mucosa, stage II when extending to the muscle layer, and stage III in the case of complete tubal wall infiltration. Main Outcome Measure(s): The relation between depth of trophoblastic infiltration into the tubal wall with VEGF and beta-hCG serum concentrations on the day of surgery. Result(s): An association between the depth of trophoblastic invasion and maternal serum concentrations of VEGF and beta-hCG was observed. VEGF levels of 297.2 pg/mL showed 100.0% sensitivity and 90.0% specificity for stage I, and levels of 440.1 pg/mL showed 81.8% sensitivity and 88.8% specificity for stage III. Beta-hCG levels of 2590.0 mIU/mL showed 88.9% sensitivity and 80.0% specificity for stage I, and levels of 10,827.0 mUI/mL showed 72.7% sensitivity and 88.9% specificity for stage III. Conclusion(s): Maternal serum VEGF and beta-hCG concentrations are associated with depth of trophoblastic penetration into the tubal wall. (Fertil Steril (R) 2010;94:1595-600. (C) 2010 by American Society for Reproductive Medicine.)
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Successful surgical treatment of deep bowel endometriosis depends on obtaining detailed information about the lesions, prior to the procedure. The objective of this study was to determine the capability of transvaginal ultrasonography with bowel preparation (TVUS-BP) to predict the presence of one or more rectosigmoid nodules and the deepest bowel layer affected by the disease. A prospective study of 194 patients with clinical and TVUS-BP suspected deep endometriosis submitted to videolaparoscopy. Image data were compared with surgical and histological results. With respect to bowel nodule detection and presence of at least two rectosigmoid lesions, TVUS-BP had a sensitivity of 97 and 81%, specificity 100 and 99%, positive predictive value (PPV) 100 and 93% and negative predictive value (NPV) 98 and 96%, respectively. Regarding diagnosis of infiltration of the submucosal/mucosal layer, TVUS-BP had a sensitivity of 83%, specificity 94%, PPV 77%, NPV 96%. These findings show that TVUS-BP is an adequate exam for evaluating the presence of one or more rectosigmoid nodules and the deepest layer affected in deep infiltrating bowel endometriosis, confirming the importance of this technique for defining the most appropriate surgical strategy to be implemented.
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Objective: To evaluate the accuracy of preoperative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) findings relative to surgical presence of deeply infiltrating endometriosis (DIE). Methods: This prospective study included 92 women with clinical suspicion of DIE. The MR images were compared with laparoscopy and pathology findings. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and accuracy of MRI for diagnosis of DIE were assessed. Results: DIE was confirmed at histopathology in 77 of the 92 patients (83.7%). Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and accuracy of MRI to diagnose DIE at each of the specific sites evaluated were as follows: retrocervical space (89.4%, 92.3%, 96.7%, 77.4%, 90.2%); rectosigmoid (86.0%, 92.9%, 93.5%, 84.8%, 89.1%); bladder (23.1%, 100%,100%, 88.8%, 89.1%); ureters (50.0%, 100%, 95.5%, 95.7%); and vagina (72.7%, 100%, 100%, 96.4%, 96.7%). Conclusion: MRI demonstrates high accuracy in diagnosing DIE in the retrocervical region, rectosigmoid. bladder, ureters, and vagina. (C) 2009 International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics. Published by Elsevier Ireland Lid. All rights reserved.
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Objective To determine accuracy of first trimester detection of single umbilical artery (SUA). Methods The number of vessels in the umbilical cord was examined in a prospective cohort of 779 singleton, low-risk, unselected pregnancies, in the first (11-13 weeks) and second (17-24 weeks) trimesters, using both power and color Doppler and after delivery, by placental histopathologic exam. Concordance between first and second trimester findings to postnatal diagnoses was compared by calculating kappa coefficients. Results There was medium concordance between the findings in the first trimester and the postnatal diagnoses (kappa = 0.52) and high concordance (kappa = 0.89) for the second trimester scan. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values for the findings in the first trimester were 57.1, 98.9, 50.0 and 99.2% and for the second trimester were 86.6, 99.9, 92.9 and 99.7%. Conclusion Sensitivity and positive predictive value of first trimester scan to identify an isolated SUA in a prospective unselected population was poor. Diagnosis of isolated SUA as well as a definitive judgment about the presence of associated anomalies would still require a scan in the second trimester. Copyright (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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Objective: To identify prediction factors for the development of leptospirosis-associated pulmonary hemorrhage syndrome (LPHS). Methods: We conducted a prospective cohort study. The study comprised of 203 patients, aged >= 14 years, admitted with complications of the severe form of leptospirosis at the Emilio Ribas Institute of Infectology (Sao Paulo, Brazil) between 1998 and 2004. Laboratory and demographic data were obtained and the severity of illness score and involvement of the lungs and others organs were determined. Logistic regression was performed to identify independent predictors of LPHS. A prospective validation cohort of 97 subjects with severe form of leptospirosis admitted at the same hospital between 2004 and 2006 was used to independently evaluate the predictive value of the model. Results: The overall mortality rate was 7.9%. Multivariate logistic regression revealed that five factors were independently associated with the development of LPHS: serum potassium (mmol/L) (OR = 2.6; 95% CI = 1.1-5.9); serum creatinine (mmol/L) (OR = 1.2; 95% CI = 1.1-1.4); respiratory rate (breaths/min) (OR = 1.1; 95% CI = 1.1-1.2); presenting shock (OR = 69.9; 95% CI = 20.1-236.4), and Glasgow Coma Scale Score (GCS) < 15 (OR = 7.7; 95% CI = 1.3-23.0). We used these findings to calculate the risk of LPHS by the use of a spreadsheet. In the validation cohort, the equation classified correctly 92% of patients (Kappa statistic = 0.80). Conclusions: We developed and validated a multivariate model for predicting LPHS. This tool should prove useful in identifying LPHS patients, allowing earlier management and thereby reducing mortality. (C) 2009 The British Infection Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.