Modeling the risk of malaria for travelers to areas with stable malaria transmission

Background: Malaria is an important threat to travelers visiting endemic regions. The risk of acquiring malaria is complex and a number of factors including transmission intensity, duration of exposure, season of the year and use of chemoprophylaxis have to be taken into account estimating risk. Materials and methods: A mathematical model was developed to estimate the risk of non-immune individual acquiring falciparum malaria when traveling to the Amazon region of Brazil. The risk of malaria infection to travelers was calculated as a function of duration of exposure and season of arrival. Results: The results suggest significant variation of risk for non-immune travelers depending on arrival season, duration of the visit and transmission intensity. The calculated risk for visitors staying longer than 4 months during peak transmission was 0.5% per visit. Conclusions: Risk estimates based on mathematical modeling based on accurate data can be a valuable tool in assessing risk/benefits and cost/benefits when deciding on the value of interventions for travelers to malaria endemic regions.

The Coupled Aerosol and Tracer Transport model to the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (CATT-BRAMS) - Part 1: Model description and evaluation

We introduce the Coupled Aerosol and Tracer Transport model to the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (CATT-BRAMS). CATT-BRAMS is an on-line transport model fully consistent with the simulated atmospheric dynamics. Emission sources from biomass burning and urban-industrial-vehicular activities for trace gases and from biomass burning aerosol particles are obtained from several published datasets and remote sensing information. The tracer and aerosol mass concentration prognostics include the effects of sub-grid scale turbulence in the planetary boundary layer, convective transport by shallow and deep moist convection, wet and dry deposition, and plume rise associated with vegetation fires in addition to the grid scale transport. The radiation parameterization takes into account the interaction between the simulated biomass burning aerosol particles and short and long wave radiation. The atmospheric model BRAMS is based on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), with several improvements associated with cumulus convection representation, soil moisture initialization and surface scheme tuned for the tropics, among others. In this paper the CATT-BRAMS model is used to simulate carbon monoxide and particulate material (PM(2.5)) surface fluxes and atmospheric transport during the 2002 LBA field campaigns, conducted during the transition from the dry to wet season in the southwest Amazon Basin. Model evaluation is addressed with comparisons between model results and near surface, radiosondes and airborne measurements performed during the field campaign, as well as remote sensing derived products. We show the matching of emissions strengths to observed carbon monoxide in the LBA campaign. A relatively good comparison to the MOPITT data, in spite of the fact that MOPITT a priori assumptions imply several difficulties, is also obtained.

THE GEMINI NICI PLANET-FINDING CAMPAIGN: DISCOVERY OF A CLOSE SUBSTELLAR COMPANION TO THE YOUNG DEBRIS DISK STAR PZ Tel

We report the discovery of a tight substellar companion to the young solar analog PZ Tel, a member of the beta Pic moving group observed with high-contrast adaptive optics imaging as part of the Gemini Near-Infrared Coronagraphic Imager Planet-Finding Campaign. The companion was detected at a projected separation of 16.4 +/- 1.0 AU (0.'' 33 +/- 0.'' 01) in 2009 April. Second-epoch observations in 2010 May demonstrate that the companion is physically associated and shows significant orbital motion. Monte Carlo modeling constrains the orbit of PZ Tel B to eccentricities >0.6. The near-IR colors of PZ Tel B indicate a spectral type of M7 +/- 2 and thus this object will be a new benchmark companion for studies of ultracool, low-gravity photospheres. Adopting an age of 12(-4)(+8) Myr for the system, we estimate a mass of 36 +/- 6 M(Jup) based on the Lyon/DUSTY evolutionary models. PZ Tel B is one of the few young substellar companions directly imaged at orbital separations similar to those of giant planets in our own solar system. Additionally, the primary star PZ Tel A shows a 70 mu m emission excess, evidence for a significant quantity of circumstellar dust that has not been disrupted by the orbital motion of the companion.

The Coupled Aerosol and Tracer Transport model to the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (CATT-BRAMS) - Part 2: Model sensitivity to the biomass burning

We describe an estimation technique for biomass burning emissions in South America based on a combination of remote-sensing fire products and field observations, the Brazilian Biomass Burning Emission Model (3BEM). For each fire pixel detected by remote sensing, the mass of the emitted tracer is calculated based on field observations of fire properties related to the type of vegetation burning. The burnt area is estimated from the instantaneous fire size retrieved by remote sensing, when available, or from statistical properties of the burn scars. The sources are then spatially and temporally distributed and assimilated daily by the Coupled Aerosol and Tracer Transport model to the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (CATT-BRAMS) in order to perform the prognosis of related tracer concentrations. Three other biomass burning inventories, including GFEDv2 and EDGAR, are simultaneously used to compare the emission strength in terms of the resultant tracer distribution. We also assess the effect of using the daily time resolution of fire emissions by including runs with monthly-averaged emissions. We evaluate the performance of the model using the different emission estimation techniques by comparing the model results with direct measurements of carbon monoxide both near-surface and airborne, as well as remote sensing derived products. The model results obtained using the 3BEM methodology of estimation introduced in this paper show relatively good agreement with the direct measurements and MOPITT data product, suggesting the reliability of the model at local to regional scales.

Cloud condensation nuclei in pristine tropical rainforest air of Amazonia: size-resolved measurements and modeling of atmospheric aerosol composition and CCN activity

Atmospheric aerosol particles serving as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) are key elements of the hydrological cycle and climate. We have measured and characterized CCN at water vapor supersaturations in the range of S=0.10-0.82% in pristine tropical rainforest air during the AMAZE-08 campaign in central Amazonia. The effective hygroscopicity parameters describing the influence of chemical composition on the CCN activity of aerosol particles varied in the range of kappa approximate to 0.1-0.4 (0.16+/-0.06 arithmetic mean and standard deviation). The overall median value of kappa approximate to 0.15 was by a factor of two lower than the values typically observed for continental aerosols in other regions of the world. Aitken mode particles were less hygroscopic than accumulation mode particles (kappa approximate to 0.1 at D approximate to 50 nm; kappa approximate to 0.2 at D approximate to 200 nm), which is in agreement with earlier hygroscopicity tandem differential mobility analyzer (H-TDMA) studies. The CCN measurement results are consistent with aerosol mass spectrometry (AMS) data, showing that the organic mass fraction (f(org)) was on average as high as similar to 90% in the Aitken mode (D <= 100 nm) and decreased with increasing particle diameter in the accumulation mode (similar to 80% at D approximate to 200 nm). The kappa values exhibited a negative linear correlation with f(org) (R(2)=0.81), and extrapolation yielded the following effective hygroscopicity parameters for organic and inorganic particle components: kappa(org)approximate to 0.1 which can be regarded as the effective hygroscopicity of biogenic secondary organic aerosol (SOA) and kappa(inorg)approximate to 0.6 which is characteristic for ammonium sulfate and related salts. Both the size dependence and the temporal variability of effective particle hygroscopicity could be parameterized as a function of AMS-based organic and inorganic mass fractions (kappa(p)=kappa(org) x f(org)+kappa(inorg) x f(inorg)). The CCN number concentrations predicted with kappa(p) were in fair agreement with the measurement results (similar to 20% average deviation). The median CCN number concentrations at S=0.1-0.82% ranged from N(CCN,0.10)approximate to 35 cm(-3) to N(CCN,0.82)approximate to 160 cm(-3), the median concentration of aerosol particles larger than 30 nm was N(CN,30)approximate to 200 cm(-3), and the corresponding integral CCN efficiencies were in the range of N(CCN,0.10/NCN,30)approximate to 0.1 to N(CCN,0.82/NCN,30)approximate to 0.8. Although the number concentrations and hygroscopicity parameters were much lower in pristine rainforest air, the integral CCN efficiencies observed were similar to those in highly polluted megacity air. Moreover, model calculations of N(CCN,S) assuming an approximate global average value of kappa approximate to 0.3 for continental aerosols led to systematic overpredictions, but the average deviations exceeded similar to 50% only at low water vapor supersaturation (0.1%) and low particle number concentrations (<= 100 cm(-3)). Model calculations assuming aconstant aerosol size distribution led to higher average deviations at all investigated levels of supersaturation: similar to 60% for the campaign average distribution and similar to 1600% for a generic remote continental size distribution. These findings confirm earlier studies suggesting that aerosol particle number and size are the major predictors for the variability of the CCN concentration in continental boundary layer air, followed by particle composition and hygroscopicity as relatively minor modulators. Depending on the required and applicable level of detail, the information and parameterizations presented in this paper should enable efficient description of the CCN properties of pristine tropical rainforest aerosols of Amazonia in detailed process models as well as in large-scale atmospheric and climate models.

Modeling associations between genetic markers using Bayesian networks

Motivation: Understanding the patterns of association between polymorphisms at different loci in a population ( linkage disequilibrium, LD) is of fundamental importance in various genetic studies. Many coefficients were proposed for measuring the degree of LD, but they provide only a static view of the current LD structure. Generative models (GMs) were proposed to go beyond these measures, giving not only a description of the actual LD structure but also a tool to help understanding the process that generated such structure. GMs based in coalescent theory have been the most appealing because they link LD to evolutionary factors. Nevertheless, the inference and parameter estimation of such models is still computationally challenging. Results: We present a more practical method to build GM that describe LD. The method is based on learning weighted Bayesian network structures from haplotype data, extracting equivalence structure classes and using them to model LD. The results obtained in public data from the HapMap database showed that the method is a promising tool for modeling LD. The associations represented by the learned models are correlated with the traditional measure of LD D`. The method was able to represent LD blocks found by standard tools. The granularity of the association blocks and the readability of the models can be controlled in the method. The results suggest that the causality information gained by our method can be useful to tell about the conservability of the genetic markers and to guide the selection of subset of representative markers.

Modeling and analysis of laminate composite plates with embedded active-passive piezoelectric networks

The objective of this work is to present the finite element modeling of laminate composite plates with embedded piezoelectric patches or layers that are then connected to active-passive resonant shunt circuits, composed of resistance, inductance and voltage source. Applications to passive vibration control and active control authority enhancement are also presented and discussed. The finite element model is based on an equivalent single layer theory combined with a third-order shear deformation theory. A stress-voltage electromechanical model is considered for the piezoelectric materials fully coupled to the electrical circuits. To this end, the electrical circuit equations are also included in the variational formulation. Hence, conservation of charge and full electromechanical coupling are guaranteed. The formulation results in a coupled finite element model with mechanical (displacements) and electrical (charges at electrodes) degrees of freedom. For a Graphite-Epoxy (Carbon-Fibre Reinforced) laminate composite plate, a parametric analysis is performed to evaluate optimal locations along the plate plane (xy) and thickness (z) that maximize the effective modal electromechanical coupling coefficient. Then, the passive vibration control performance is evaluated for a network of optimally located shunted piezoelectric patches embedded in the plate, through the design of resistance and inductance values of each circuit, to reduce the vibration amplitude of the first four vibration modes. A vibration amplitude reduction of at least 10 dB for all vibration modes was observed. Then, an analysis of the control authority enhancement due to the resonant shunt circuit, when the piezoelectric patches are used as actuators, is performed. It is shown that the control authority can indeed be improved near a selected resonance even with multiple pairs of piezoelectric patches and active-passive circuits acting simultaneously. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integrating structural and input design of a 2-DOF high-speed parallel manipulator: A flexible model-based approach

This paper discusses the integrated design of parallel manipulators, which exhibit varying dynamics. This characteristic affects the machine stability and performance. The design methodology consists of four main steps: (i) the system modeling using flexible multibody technique, (ii) the synthesis of reduced-order models suitable for control design, (iii) the systematic flexible model-based input signal design, and (iv) the evaluation of some possible machine designs. The novelty in this methodology is to take structural flexibilities into consideration during the input signal design; therefore, enhancing the standard design process which mainly considers rigid bodies dynamics. The potential of the proposed strategy is exploited for the design evaluation of a two degree-of-freedom high-speed parallel manipulator. The results are experimentally validated. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Parametrical study of masonry walls subjected to in-plane loading through numerical modeling

This paper deals with the numerical assessment of the influence of parameters such as pre-compression level, aspect ratio, vertical and horizontal reinforcement ratios and boundary conditions on the lateral strength of masonry walls under in-plane loading. The numerical study is performed through the software DIANA (R) based on the Finite Element Method. The validation of the numerical model is carried out from a database of available experimental results on masonry walls tested under cyclic lateral loading. Numerical results revealed that boundary conditions play a central role on the lateral behavior of masonry walls under in-plane loading and determine the influence of level of pre-compression as well as the reinforcement ratio on the wall strength. The lateral capacity of walls decreases with the increase of aspect ratio and with the decrease of pre-compression. Vertical steel bars appear to have almost no influence in the shear strength of masonry walls and horizontal reinforcement only increases the lateral strength of masonry walls if the shear response of the walls is determinant for failure, which is directly related to the boundary conditions. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Heterogeneous modeling of an anaerobic sequencing batch biofilm reactor (ASBBR)

The objective of this study was to estimate the first-order intrinsic kinetic constant (k(1)) and the liquid-phase mass transfer coefficient (k(c)) in a bench-scale anaerobic sequencing batch biofilm reactor (ASBBR) fed with glucose. A dynamic heterogeneous mathematical model, considering two phases (liquid and solid), was developed through mass balances in the liquid and solid phases. The model was adjusted to experimental data obtained from the ASBBR applied for the treatment of glucose-based synthetic wastewater with approximately 500 mg L-1 of glucose, operating in 8 h batch cycles, at 30 degrees C and 300 rpm. The values of the parameters obtained were 0.8911 min(-1) for k(1) and 0.7644 cm min(-1) for kc. The model was validated utilizing the estimated parameters with data obtained from the ASBBR operating in 3 h batch cycles, with a good representation of the experimental behavior. The solid-phase mass transfer flux was found to be the limiting step of the overall glucose conversion rate.

Modeling and Analysis of Piezoelectric Energy Harvesting From Aeroelastic Vibrations Using the Doublet-Lattice Method

Multifunctional structures are pointed out as an important technology for the design of aircraft with volume, mass, and energy source limitations such as unmanned air vehicles (UAVs) and micro air vehicles (MAVs). In addition to its primary function of bearing aerodynamic loads, the wing/spar structure of an UAV or a MAV with embedded piezoceramics can provide an extra electrical energy source based on the concept of vibration energy harvesting to power small and wireless electronic components. Aeroelastic vibrations of a lifting surface can be converted into electricity using piezoelectric transduction. In this paper, frequency-domain piezoaeroelastic modeling and analysis of a canti-levered platelike wing with embedded piezoceramics is presented for energy harvesting. The electromechanical finite-element plate model is based on the thin-plate (Kirchhoff) assumptions while the unsteady aerodynamic model uses the doublet-lattice method. The electromechanical and aerodynamic models are combined to obtain the piezoaeroelastic equations, which are solved using a p-k scheme that accounts for the electromechanical coupling. The evolution of the aerodynamic damping and the frequency of each mode are obtained with changing airflow speed for a given electrical circuit. Expressions for piezoaeroelastically coupled frequency response functions (voltage, current, and electrical power as well the vibratory motion) are also defined by combining flow excitation with harmonic base excitation. Hence, piezoaeroelastic evolution can be investigated in frequency domain for different airflow speeds and electrical boundary conditions. [DOI:10.1115/1.4002785]

Piezoaeroelastic Modeling and Analysis of a Generator Wing with Continuous and Segmented Electrodes

Unmanned air vehicles (UAVs) and micro air vehicles (MAVs) constitute unique application platforms for vibration-based energy harvesting. Generating usable electrical energy during their mission has the important practical value of providing an additional energy source to run small electronic components. Electrical energy can be harvested from aeroelastic vibrations of lifting surfaces of UAVs and MAVs as they tend to have relatively flexible wings compared to their larger counterparts. In this work, an electromechanically coupled finite element model is combined with an unsteady aerodynamic model to develop a piezoaeroelastic model for airflow excitation of cantilevered plates representing wing-like structures. The electrical power output and the displacement of the wing tip are investigated for several airflow speeds and two different electrode configurations (continuous and segmented). Cancelation of electrical output occurs for typical coupled bending-torsion aeroelastic modes of a cantilevered generator wing when continuous electrodes are used. Torsional motions of the coupled modes become relatively significant when segmented electrodes are used, improving the broadband performance and altering the flutter speed. Although the focus is placed on the electrical power that can be harvested for a given airflow speed, shunt damping effect of piezoelectric power generation is also investigated for both electrode configurations.

Modeling and experimental study of nucleate boiling on a vertical array of horizontal plain tubes

An investigation of nucleate boiling on a vertical array of horizontal plain tubes is presented in this paper. Experiments were performed with refrigerant RI 23 at reduced pressures varying from 0.022 to 0.64, tube pitch to diameter ratios of 1.32, 1.53 and 2.00, and heat fluxes from 0.5 to 40 kW/m(2). Brass tubes with external diameters of 19.05 mm and average roughness of 0.12 mu m were used in the experiments. The effect of the tube spacing on the local heat transfer coefficient along the tube array was negligible within the present range of experimental conditions. For partial nucleate boiling, characterized by low heat fluxes, and low reduced pressures, the tube positioning shows a remarkable effect on the heat transfer coefficient. Based on these data, a general correlation for the prediction of the nucleate boiling heat transfer coefficient on a vertical array of horizontal tubes under flooded conditions was proposed. According to this correlation, the ratio between the heat transfer coefficients of a given tube and the lowest tube in the array depends only on the tube row number, the reduced pressure and the heat flux. By using the proposed correlation, most of the experimental heat transfer coefficients obtained in the present study were predicted within +/- 15%. The new correlation compares reasonably well with independent data from the literature. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A safety assessment methodology applied to CNS/ATM-based air traffic control system

In the last decades, the air traffic system has been changing to adapt itself to new social demands, mainly the safe growth of worldwide traffic capacity. Those changes are ruled by the Communication, Navigation, Surveillance/Air Traffic Management (CNS/ATM) paradigm, based on digital communication technologies (mainly satellites) as a way of improving communication, surveillance, navigation and air traffic management services. However, CNS/ATM poses new challenges and needs, mainly related to the safety assessment process. In face of these new challenges, and considering the main characteristics of the CNS/ATM, a methodology is proposed at this work by combining ""absolute"" and ""relative"" safety assessment methods adopted by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) in ICAO Doc.9689 [14], using Fluid Stochastic Petri Nets (FSPN) as the modeling formalism, and compares the safety metrics estimated from the simulation of both the proposed (in analysis) and the legacy system models. To demonstrate its usefulness, the proposed methodology was applied to the ""Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcasting"" (ADS-B) based air traffic control system. As conclusions, the proposed methodology assured to assess CNS/ATM system safety properties, in which FSPN formalism provides important modeling capabilities, and discrete event simulation allowing the estimation of the desired safety metric. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of Adaptive Genetic Algorithm to Environmental Modeling of Peponapis and Cucurbita

This paper presents a free software tool that supports the next-generation Mobile Communications, through the automatic generation of models of components and electronic devices based on neural networks. This tool enables the creation, training, validation and simulation of the model directly from measurements made on devices of interest, using an interface totally oriented to non-experts in neural models. The resulting model can be exported automatically to a traditional circuit simulator to test different scenarios.