67 resultados para hazard
Resumo:
In this paper, we present various diagnostic methods for polyhazard models. Polyhazard models are a flexible family for fitting lifetime data. Their main advantage over the single hazard models, such as the Weibull and the log-logistic models, is to include a large amount of nonmonotone hazard shapes, as bathtub and multimodal curves. Some influence methods, such as the local influence and total local influence of an individual are derived, analyzed and discussed. A discussion of the computation of the likelihood displacement as well as the normal curvature in the local influence method are presented. Finally, an example with real data is given for illustration.
Resumo:
A four-parameter extension of the generalized gamma distribution capable of modelling a bathtub-shaped hazard rate function is defined and studied. The beauty and importance of this distribution lies in its ability to model monotone and non-monotone failure rate functions, which are quite common in lifetime data analysis and reliability. The new distribution has a number of well-known lifetime special sub-models, such as the exponentiated Weibull, exponentiated generalized half-normal, exponentiated gamma and generalized Rayleigh, among others. We derive two infinite sum representations for its moments. We calculate the density of the order statistics and two expansions for their moments. The method of maximum likelihood is used for estimating the model parameters and the observed information matrix is obtained. Finally, a real data set from the medical area is analysed.
Resumo:
This article considers alternative methods to calculate the fair premium rate of crop insurance contracts based on county yields. The premium rate was calculated using parametric and nonparametric approaches to estimate the conditional agricultural yield density. These methods were applied to a data set of county yield provided by the Statistical and Geography Brazilian Institute (IBGE), for the period of 1990 through 2002, for soybean, corn and wheat, in the State of Paran. In this article, we propose methodological alternatives to pricing crop insurance contracts resulting in more accurate premium rates in a situation of limited data.
Resumo:
Objectives: We compared 12-month outcomes, regarding ischemic events, repeat intervention, and ST, between diabetic and nondiabetic patients treated with the Genous (TM) EPC capturing R stent (TM) during routine nonurgent percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) using data from the multicenter, prospective worldwide e-HEALING registry. Background: Diabetic patients have an increased risk for restenosis and stent thrombosis (ST). Methods: In the 4,996 patient e-HEALING registry, 273 were insulin requiring diabetics (IRD), 963 were non-IRD (NIRD), and 3,703 were nondiabetics. The 12-month primary outcome was target vessel failure (TVF), defined as target vessel-related cardiac death or myocardial infarction (MI) and target vessel revascularization. Secondary outcomes were the composite of cardiac death, MI or target lesion revascularization (TLR), and individual outcomes including ST. Cumulative event rates were estimated with the Kaplan-Meier method and compared with a log-rank test. Results: TVF rates were respectively 13.4% in IRD, 9.0% in NIRD, and 7.9% in nondiabetics (P < 0.01). This was mainly driven by a higher mortality hazard in IRD (P < 0.001) and NIRD (P = 0.07), compared with nondiabetics. TLR rates were comparable in NIRD and nondiabetics, but significantly higher in IRD (P = 0.04). No difference was observed in ST. Conclusion: The 1-year results of the Genous stent in a real-world population of diabetics show higher TVF rates in diabetics compared with nondiabetics, mainly driven by a higher mortality hazard. IRD is associated with a significant higher TLR hazard. Definite or probable ST in all diabetic patients was comparable with nondiabetics. (J Interven Cardiol 2011;24:285-294)
Resumo:
Background: We tested the hypothesis that the universal application of myocardial scanning with single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) would result in better risk stratification in renal transplant candidates (RTC) compared with SPECT being restricted to patients who, in addition to renal disease, had other clinical risk factors. Methods: RTCs (n=363) underwent SPECT and clinical risk stratification according to the American Society of Transplantation (AST) algorithm and were followed up until a major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) or death. Results: Of the 363 patients, 79 patients (22%) had an abnormal SPECT scan and 270 (74%) were classified as high risk. Both methods correctly identified patients with increased probability of MACE. However, clinical stratification performed better (sensitivity and negative predictive value 99% and 99% vs. 25% and 87%, respectively). High-risk patients with an abnormal SPECT scan had a modest increased risk of events (log-rank = 0.03; hazard ratio [HR] = 1.37; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.02-1.82). Eighty-six patients underwent coronary angiography, and coronary artery disease (CAD) was found in 60%. High-risk patients with CAD had an increased incidence of events (log-rank = 0.008; HR=3.85; 95% CI, 1.46-13.22), but in those with an abnormal SPECT scan, the incidence of events was not influenced by CAD (log-rank = 0.23). Forty-six patients died. Clinical stratification, but not SPECT, correlated with the probability of death (log-rank = 0.02; HR=3.25; 95% CI, 1.31-10.82). Conclusion: SPECT should be restricted to high-risk patients. Moreover, in contrast to SPECT, the AST algorithm was also useful for predicting death by any cause in RTCs and for selecting patients for invasive coronary testing.
Resumo:
Background: The presence of coronary artery calcium (CAC) is an independent marker of increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events and mortality. However, the predictive value of thoracic aorta calcification (TAC), which can be additionally identified without further scanning during assessment of CAC, is unknown. Methods: We followed a cohort of 8401 asymptomatic individuals (mean age: 53 +/- 10 years, 69% men) undergoing cardiac risk factor evaluation and TAC and CAC testing with electron beam computed tomography. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were developed to predict all-cause mortality based on the presence of TAC. Results: During a median follow-up period of 5 years, 124 (1.5%) deaths were observed. Overall survival was 96.9% and 98.9% for those with and without detectable TAC, respectively (p < 0.0001). Compared to those with no TAC, the hazard ratio for mortality in the presence of TAC was 3.25 (95% CI: 2.28-4.65, p < 0.0001) in unadjusted analysis. After adjusting for age, gender, hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes mellitus, smoking and family history of premature coronary artery disease, and presence of CAC the relationship remained robust (HR 1.61, 95% CI: 1.10-2.27, p = 0.015). Likelihood ratio chi(2) statistics demonstrated that the addition of TAC contributed significantly in predicting mortality to traditional risk factors alone (chi(2) = 13.62, p = 0.002) as well as risk factors + CAC (chi(2) = 5.84, p = 0.02) models. Conclusion: In conclusion, the presence of TAC was associated with all-cause mortality in our study; this relationship was independent of conventional CVD risk factors as well as the presence of CAC. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Background Statins reduce the incidence of cardiovascular events in patients at high cardiovascular risk. However, a benefit of statins in such patients who are undergoing hemodialysis has not been proved. Methods We conducted an international, multicenter, randomized, double-blind, prospective trial involving 2776 patients, 50 to 80 years of age, who were undergoing maintenance hemodialysis. We randomly assigned patients to receive rosuvastatin, 10 mg daily, or placebo. The combined primary end point was death from cardiovascular causes, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or nonfatal stroke. Secondary end points included death from all causes and individual cardiac and vascular events. Results After 3 months, the mean reduction in low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol levels was 43% in patients receiving rosuvastatin, from a mean baseline level of 100 mg per deciliter (2.6 mmol per liter). During a median follow-up period of 3.8 years, 396 patients in the rosuvastatin group and 408 patients in the placebo group reached the primary end point (9.2 and 9.5 events per 100 patient-years, respectively; hazard ratio for the combined end point in the rosuvastatin group vs. the placebo group, 0.96; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.84 to 1.11; P = 0.59). Rosuvastatin had no effect on individual components of the primary end point. There was also no significant effect on all-cause mortality (13.5 vs. 14.0 events per 100 patient-years; hazard ratio, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.86 to 1.07; P = 0.51). Conclusions In patients undergoing hemodialysis, the initiation of treatment with rosuvastatin lowered the LDL cholesterol level but had no significant effect on the composite primary end point of death from cardiovascular causes, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or nonfatal stroke. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00240331.)
Resumo:
Context: Genetic polymorphisms at the perilipin (PLIN) locus have been investigated for their potential utility as markers for obesity and metabolic syndrome (MS). We examined in obese children and adolescents (OCA) aged 7-14 yr the association of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) at the PLIN locus with anthropometric, metabolic traits, and weight loss after 20-wk multi-disciplinary behavioral and nutritional treatment without medication. Design: A total of 234 OCA [body mass index (BMI = 30.4 +/- 4.4 kg/m(2); BMI Z-score = 2.31 +/- 0.4) were evaluated at baseline and after intervention. We genotyped four SNPs (PLIN1 6209T -> C, PLIN4 11482G -> A, PLIN5 13041A -> G, and PLIN6 14995A -> T). Results: Allele frequencies were similar to other populations, PLIN1 and PLIN4 were in linkage disequilibrium (D` = 0.999; P < 0.001). At baseline, no anthropometric differences were observed, but minor allele A at PLIN4 was associated with higher triglycerides (111 +/- 49 vs. 94 +/- 42 mg/dl; P = 0.003), lower high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (40 +/- 9 vs. 44 +/- 10 mg/dl; P = 0.003) and higher homeostasis model assessment for insulin resistance (4.0 +/- 2.3 vs. 3.5 +/- 2.1; P +/- 0.015). Minor allele A at PLIN4 was associated with MS risk (age and sex adjusted) hazard ratio 2.4 (95% confidence interval = 1.1-4.9) for genotype GA and 3.5 (95% confidence interval = 1.2-9.9) for AA. After intervention, subjects carrying minor allele T at PLIN6 had increased weight loss (3.3 +/- 3.7 vs. 1.9 +/- 3.4 kg; P = 0.002) and increased loss of the BMI Z-score (0.23 +/- 0.18 vs. 0.18 +/- 0.15; P +/- 0.003). Due to group size, risk of by-chance findings cannot be excluded. Conclusion: The minor A allele at PLIN4 was associated with higher risk of MS at baseline, whereas the PLIN6 SNP was associated with better weight loss, suggesting that these polymorphisms may predict outcome strategies based on multidisciplinary treatment for OCA. (J Clin Endocrinol Metab 93: 4933-4940, 2008)
Resumo:
Proteinuria was associated with cardiovascular events and mortality in community-based cohorts. The association of proteinuria with mortality and cardiovascular events in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) was unknown. The association of urinary dipstick proteinuria with mortality and cardiovascular events (composite of death, myocardial infarction, or nonhemorrhagic stroke) in 5,835 subjects of the EXCITE trial was evaluated. Dipstick urinalysis was performed before PCI, and proteinuria was defined as trace or greater. Subjects were followed up for 210 days/7 months after enrollment for the occurrence of events. Multivariate Cox regression analysis evaluated the independent association of proteinuria with each outcome. Mean age was 59 years, 21% were women, 18% had diabetes mellitus, and mean estimated glomerular filtration rate was 90 ml/min/1.73 m(2). Proteinuria was present in 750 patients (13%). During follow-up, 22 subjects (2.9%) with proteinuria and 54 subjects (1.1%) without proteinuria died (adjusted hazard ratio 2.83, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.65 to 4.84, p <0.001). The severity of proteinuria attenuated the strength of the association with mortality after PCI (low-grade proteinuria, hazard ratio 2.67, 95% CI 1.50 to 4.75; high-grade proteinuria, hazard ratio 3.76, 95% CI 1.24 to 11.37). No significant association was present for cardiovascular events during the relatively short follow-up, but high-grade proteinuria tended toward increased risk of cardiovascular events (hazard ratio 1.45, 95% CI 0.81 to 2.61). In conclusion, proteinuria was strongly and independently associated with mortality in patients undergoing PCI. These data suggest that such a relatively simple and clinically easy to use tool as urinary dipstick may be useful to identify and treat patients at high risk of mortality at the time of PCI. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. (Am J Cardiol 2008;102:1151-1155)
Resumo:
Background-Randomized trials that studied clinical outcomes after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with bare metal stenting versus coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) are underpowered to properly assess safety end points like death, stroke, and myocardial infarction. Pooling data from randomized controlled trials increases the statistical power and allows better assessment of the treatment effect in high-risk subgroups. Methods and Results-We performed a pooled analysis of 3051 patients in 4 randomized trials evaluating the relative safety and efficacy of PCI with stenting and CABG at 5 years for the treatment of multivessel coronary artery disease. The primary end point was the composite end point of death, stroke, or myocardial infarction. The secondary end point was the occurrence of major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular accidents, death, stroke, myocardial infarction, and repeat revascularization. We tested for heterogeneities in treatment effect in patient subgroups. At 5 years, the cumulative incidence of death, myocardial infarction, and stroke was similar in patients randomized to PCI with stenting versus CABG (16.7% versus 16.9%, respectively; hazard ratio, 1.04, 95% confidence interval, 0.86 to 1.27; P = 0.69). Repeat revascularization, however, occurred significantly more frequently after PCI than CABG (29.0% versus 7.9%, respectively; hazard ratio, 0.23; 95% confidence interval, 0.18 to 0.29; P<0.001). Major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events were significantly higher in the PCI than the CABG group (39.2% versus 23.0%, respectively; hazard ratio, 0.53; 95% confidence interval, 0.45 to 0.61; P<0.001). No heterogeneity of treatment effect was found in the subgroups, including diabetic patients and those presenting with 3-vessel disease. Conclusions-In this pooled analysis of 4 randomized trials, PCI with stenting was associated with a long-term safety profile similar to that of CABG. However, as a result of persistently lower repeat revascularization rates in the CABG patients, overall major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular event rates were significantly lower in the CABG group at 5 years.
Resumo:
Background Some children with juvenile idiopathic arthritis either do not respond, or are intolerant to, treatment with disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs, including anti-tumour necrosis factor (TNF) drugs. We aimed to assess the safety and efficacy of abatacept, a selective T-cell costimulation modulator, in children with juvenile idiopathic arthritis who had failed previous treatments. Methods We did a double-blind, randomised controlled withdrawal trial between February, 2004, and June, 2006. We enrolled 190 patients aged 6-17 years, from 45 centres, who had a history of active juvenile idiopathic arthritis; at least five active joints; and an inadequate response to, or intolerance to, at least one disease-modifying antirheumatic drug. All 190 patients were given 10 mg/kg of abatacept intravenously in the open-label period of 4 months. Of the 170 patients who completed this lead-in course, 47 did not respond to the treatment according to predefined American College of Rheumatology (ACR) paediatric criteria and were excluded. Of the patients who did respond to abatacept, arthritis, and 62 were randomly assigned to receive placebo at the same dose and timing. The primary endpoint was time to flare of arthritis. Flare was defined as worsening of 30% or more in at least three of six core variables, with at least 30% improvement in no more than one variable. We analysed all patients who were treated as per protocol. This trial is registered, number NCT00095173. Findings Flares of arthritis occurred in 33 of 62 (53%) patients who were given placebo and 12 of 60 (20%) abatacept patients during the double-blind treatment (p=0.0003). Median time to flare of arthritis was 6 months for patients given placebo (insufficient events to calculate IQR); insufficient events had occurred in the abatacept group for median time to flare to be assessed (p=0.0002). The risk of flare in patients who contined abatacept was less than a third of that for controls during that double-blind period (hazard ratio 0.31, 95% CI 0.16-0.95). During the double-blind period, the frequency of adverse events did not differ in the two treatment groups, Adverse events were recorded in 37 abatacept recipients (62%) and 34 (55%) placebo recipients (p=0.47); only two serious adverse events were reported, bouth in controls (p=0.50). Interpretation Selective modulation of T-cell costimulation with abatacept is a rational alternative treatment for children with juvenile idiopathic arthritis. Funding Bristol-Myers Squibb.
Resumo:
Background-The effectiveness of heart failure disease management proarams in patients under cardiologists` care over long-term follow-up is not established. Methods and Results-We investigated the effects of a disease management program with repetitive education and telephone monitoring on primary (combined death or unplanned first hospitalization and quality-of-life changes) and secondary end points (hospitalization, death, and adherence). The REMADHE [Repetitive Education and Monitoring for ADherence for Heart Failure] trial is a long-term randomized, prospective, parallel trial designed to compare intervention with control. One hundred seventeen patients were randomized to usual care, and 233 to additional intervention. The mean follow-up was 2.47 +/- 1.75 years, with 54% adherence to the program. In the intervention group, the primary end point composite of death or unplanned hospitalization was reduced (hazard ratio, 0.64; confidence interval, 0.43 to 0.88; P=0.008), driven by reduction in hospitalization. The quality-of-life questionnaire score improved only in the intervention group (P<0.003). Mortality was similar in both groups. Number of hospitalizations (1.3 +/- 1.7 versus 0.8 +/- 1.3, P<0.0001), total hospital days during the follow-up (19.9 +/- 51 versus 11.1 +/- 24 days, P<0.0001), and the need for emergency visits (4.5 +/- 10.6 versus 1.6 +/- 2.4, P<0.0001) were lower in the intervention group. Beneficial effects were homogeneous for sex, race, diabetes and no diabetes, age, functional class, and etiology. Conclusions-For a longer follow-up period than in previous studies, this heart failure disease management program model of patients under the supervision of a cardiologist is associated with a reduction in unplanned hospitalization, a reduction of total hospital days, and a reduced need for emergency care, as well as improved quality of life, despite modest program adherence over time. (Circ Heart Fail. 2008;1:115-124.)
Resumo:
Aortic valve calcium (AVC) can be quantified on the same computed tomographic scan as coronary artery calcium (CAC). Although CAC is an established predictor of cardiovascular events, limited evidence is available for an independent predictive value for AVC. We studied a cohort of 8,401 asymptomatic subjects (mean age 53 10 years, 69% men), who were free of known coronary heart disease and were undergoing electron beam computed tomography for assessment of subclinical atherosclerosis. The patients were followed for a median of 5 years (range 1 to 7) for the occurrence of mortality from any cause. Multivariate Cox regression models were developed to predict all-cause mortality according to the presence of AVC. A total of 517 patients (6%) had AVC on electron beam computed tomography. During follow-up, 124 patients died (1.5%), for an overall survival rate of 96.1% and 98.7% for those with and without AVC, respectively (hazard ratio 3.39, 95% confidence interval 2.09 to 5.49). After adjustment for age, gender, hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes mellitus, smoking, and a family history of premature coronary heart disease, AVC remained a significant predictor of mortality (hazard ratio 1.82, 95% confidence interval 1.11 to 2.98). Likelihood ratio chi-square statistics demonstrated that the addition of AVC contributed significantly to the prediction of mortality in a model adjusted for traditional risk factors (chi-square = 5.03, p = 0.03) as well as traditional risk factors plus the presence of CAC (chi-square = 3.58, p = 0.05). In conclusion, AVC was associated with increased all-cause mortality, independent of the traditional risk factors and the presence of CAC. (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier Inc. (Am J Cardiol 2010;106:1787-1791)
Resumo:
Background. Many resource-limited countries rely on clinical and immunological monitoring without routine virological monitoring for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected children receiving highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). We assessed whether HIV load had independent predictive value in the presence of immunological and clinical data for the occurrence of new World Health Organization (WHO) stage 3 or 4 events (hereafter, WHO events) among HIV-infected children receiving HAART in Latin America. Methods. The NISDI (Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development International Site Development Initiative) Pediatric Protocol is an observational cohort study designed to describe HIV-related outcomes among infected children. Eligibility criteria for this analysis included perinatal infection, age ! 15 years, and continuous HAART for >= 6 months. Cox proportional hazards modeling was used to assess time to new WHO events as a function of immunological status, viral load, hemoglobin level, and potential confounding variables; laboratory tests repeated during the study were treated as time-varying predictors. Results. The mean duration of follow-up was 2.5 years; new WHO events occurred in 92 (15.8%) of 584 children. In proportional hazards modeling, most recent viral load 15000 copies/mL was associated with a nearly doubled risk of developing a WHO event (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.81; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-3.11; P = 033), even after adjustment for immunological status defined on the basis of CD4 T lymphocyte value, hemoglobin level, age, and body mass index. Conclusions. Routine virological monitoring using the WHO virological failure threshold of 5000 copies/mL adds independent predictive value to immunological and clinical assessments for identification of children receiving HAART who are at risk for significant HIV-related illness. To provide optimal care, periodic virological monitoring should be considered for all settings that provide HAART to children.
Resumo:
Context Perioperative red blood cell transfusion is commonly used to address anemia, an independent risk factor for morbidity and mortality after cardiac operations; however, evidence regarding optimal blood transfusion practice in patients undergoing cardiac surgery is lacking. Objective To define whether a restrictive perioperative red blood cell transfusion strategy is as safe as a liberal strategy in patients undergoing elective cardiac surgery. Design, Setting, and Patients The Transfusion Requirements After Cardiac Surgery (TRACS) study, a prospective, randomized, controlled clinical noninferiority trial conducted between February 2009 and February 2010 in an intensive care unit at a university hospital cardiac surgery referral center in Brazil. Consecutive adult patients (n=502) who underwent cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass were eligible; analysis was by intention-to-treat. Intervention Patients were randomly assigned to a liberal strategy of blood transfusion (to maintain a hematocrit >= 30%) or to a restrictive strategy (hematocrit >= 24%). Main Outcome Measure Composite end point of 30-day all-cause mortality and severe morbidity (cardiogenic shock, acute respiratory distress syndrome, or acute renal injury requiring dialysis or hemofiltration) occurring during the hospital stay. The noninferiority margin was predefined at -8% (ie, 8% minimal clinically important increase in occurrence of the composite end point). Results Hemoglobin concentrations were maintained at a mean of 10.5 g/dL(95% confidence interval [CI], 10.4-10.6) in the liberal-strategy group and 9.1 g/dL (95% CI, 9.09.2) in the restrictive-strategy group (P<.001). A total of 198 of 253 patients (78%) in the liberal-strategy group and 118 of 249 (47%) in the restrictive-strategy group received a blood transfusion (P<.001). Occurrence of the primary end point was similar between groups (10% liberal vs 11% restrictive; between-group difference, 1% [95% CI, -6% to 4%]; P=.85). Independent of transfusion strategy, the number of transfused red blood cell units was an independent risk factor for clinical complications or death at 30 days (hazard ratio for each additional unit transfused, 1.2 [95% CI, 1.1-1.4]; P=.002). Conclusion Among patients undergoing cardiac surgery, the use of a restrictive perioperative transfusion strategy compared with a more liberal strategy resulted in noninferior rates of the combined outcome of 30-day all-cause mortality and severe morbidity. Trial Registration clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT01021631 JAMA. 2010; 304(14):1559-1567 www.jama.com