Bayesian ratemaking procedure of crop insurance contracts with skewed distribution

Over the years, crop insurance programs became the focus of agricultural policy in the USA, Spain, Mexico, and more recently in Brazil. Given the increasing interest in insurance, accurate calculation of the premium rate is of great importance. We address the crop-yield distribution issue and its implications in pricing an insurance contract considering the dynamic structure of the data and incorporating the spatial correlation in the Hierarchical Bayesian framework. Results show that empirical (insurers) rates are higher in low risk areas and lower in high risk areas. Such methodological improvement is primarily important in situations of limited data.

Spatio-temporal modeling of agricultural yield data with an application to pricing crop insurance contracts

This article presents a statistical model of agricultural yield data based on a set of hierarchical Bayesian models that allows joint modeling of temporal and spatial autocorrelation. This method captures a comprehensive range of the various uncertainties involved in predicting crop insurance premium rates as opposed to the more traditional ad hoc, two-stage methods that are typically based on independent estimation and prediction. A panel data set of county-average yield data was analyzed for 290 counties in the State of Parana (Brazil) for the period of 1990 through 2002. Posterior predictive criteria are used to evaluate different model specifications. This article provides substantial improvements in the statistical and actuarial methods often applied to the calculation of insurance premium rates. These improvements are especially relevant to situations where data are limited.

Parametric and nonparametric statistical modelling of crop yield: implications for pricing crop insurance contracts

This article considers alternative methods to calculate the fair premium rate of crop insurance contracts based on county yields. The premium rate was calculated using parametric and nonparametric approaches to estimate the conditional agricultural yield density. These methods were applied to a data set of county yield provided by the Statistical and Geography Brazilian Institute (IBGE), for the period of 1990 through 2002, for soybean, corn and wheat, in the State of Paran. In this article, we propose methodological alternatives to pricing crop insurance contracts resulting in more accurate premium rates in a situation of limited data.

Crop rotation in center-pivot for phytonematode control: density variation, pathogenicity and crop loss estimation

Crop rotation in center-pivot for phytonematode control: density variation, pathogenicity and crop loss estimation A field study conducted over three consecutive years, on a farm using crop rotation system under center-pivot and infested with the nematodes Pratylenchus brachyurus, P. zeae, Meloidogyne incognita, Paratrichodorus minor, Helicotylenchus dihystera, Mesocriconema ornata and M. onoense, demonstrated that intensive crop systems provide conditions for the maintenance of high densities of polyphagous phytonematodes. Of the crops established on the farm (cotton, maize, soybean and cowpea), cotton and soybean suffered the most severe crop losses, caused respectively by M. incognita and P. brachyurus. Since maize is a good host for both nematodes, but tolerant of M. incognita, its exclusion from cropping system would be favorable to the performance of cotton, soybean and cowpea. Results from experiments carried out in controlled conditions confirmed the pathogenicity of P. brachyurus on cotton. Additional management with genetic resistance was useful in fields infested with M. incognita, although the soybean performance was affected by low resistance of the cultivars used for P. brachyurus. In conclusion, crop rotation must be carefully planned in areas infested with polyphagous nematodes, specifically in the case of occurrence of two or more major pathogenic nematodes.

Identification of microsatellites markers associated with yield components and quality parameters in sugarcane

Marker assisted selection depends on the identification of tightly linked association between marker and the trait of interest. In the present work, functional (EST-SSRs) and genomic (gSSRs) microsatellite markers were used to detect putative QTLs for sugarcane yield components (stalk number, diameter and height) and as well as for quality parameters (Brix, Pol and fibre) in plant cane. The mapping population (200 individuals) was derived from a bi-parental cross (IACSP95-3018 x IACSP93-3046) from the IAC Sugarcane Breeding Program. As the map is under construction, single marker trait association analysis based on the likelihood ratio test was undertaken to detect the QTLs. Of the 215 single dose markers evaluated (1:1 and 3:1), 90 (42%) were associated with putative QTLs involving 43 microsatellite primers (18 gSSRs and 25 EST-SSRs). For the yield components, 41 marker/trait associations were found: 20 for height, 6 for diameter and 15 for stalk number. An EST-SSRs marker with homology to non-phototropic hypocotyls 4 (NPH4) protein was associated with a putative QTL with positive effect for diameter as also with a negative effect for stalk number. In relation to the quality parameters, 18 marker trait associations were found for Brix, 19 for Pol, and 12 for fibre. For fibre, 58% of the QTLs detected showed a negative effect on this trait. Some makers associated with QTLs with a negative effect for fibre showed a positive effect for Pol, reflecting the negative correlation generally observed between these traits.

In silico analysis of candidate genes involved in light sensing and signal transduction pathways in soybean

Several aspects of photoperception and light signal transduction have been elucidated by studies with model plants. However, the information available for economically important crops, such as Fabaceae species, is scarce. In order to incorporate the existing genomic tools into a strategy to advance soybean research, we have investigated publicly available expressed sequence tag ( EST) sequence databases in order to identify Glycine max sequences related to genes involved in light-regulated developmental control in model plants. Approximately 38,000 sequences from open-access databases were investigated, and all bona fide and putative photoreceptor gene families were found in soybean sequence databases. We have identified G. max orthologs for several families of transcriptional regulators and cytoplasmic proteins mediating photoreceptor-induced responses, although some important Arabidopsis phytochrome-signaling components are absent. Moreover, soybean and Arabidopsis gene-family homologs appear to have undergone a distinct expansion process in some cases. We propose a working model of light perception, signal transduction and response-eliciting in G. max, based on the identified key components from Arabidopsis. These results demonstrate the power of comparative genomics between model systems and crop species to elucidate several aspects of plant physiology and metabolism.

Water use and crop coefficient for hybrid DKB 390

Water use and crop coefficient for hybrid DKB 390. This work aims to characterize the water use of maize hybrid DKB 390 under suitable conditions of irrigation for both sufficient and below-optimal situations of nitrogen supply. Crop coefficient values for different stages are also presented as a result, in order to provide the basis for crop water budget and management throughout the cycle. A field experiment was carried Out during the main season, in which biomass, soil moisture, leaf area, climate data and light transmittance were evaluated. These have allowed deriving water balance, use and efficiency. The mentioned genotype requires around 600 nun for high yield targets, being less efficient when led under below-optimal nitrogen fertilization.

Carbon and Nitrogen Dynamics in an Oxisol as Affected by Liming and Crop Residues under No-Till

The short-term effects of surface lime application and black oat (Avena strigosa Schreb.) residues, with or without N fertilization, were evaluated in a long-term no-till (NT) system on a sandy clay loam, a kaolinitic, thermic Typic Hapludox from the state of Parana, Brazil. The main plot treatments were: control and dolomitic lime applied on soil surface at 8 Mg ha(-1). Three treatments with crop residues were evaluated on the subplots: (i) fallow, (ii) black oat residues, and (iii) black oat residues aft er N fertilization at 180 kg ha(-1). Black oat dry biomass was not affected by the treatments during 3 yr. Surface liming increased soil pH, microbial biomass, microbial activity, and bacterial/fungal ratio at the soil surface (0-5 cm), resulting in increased amino acid turnover, water-soluble humic substances formation, and N mineralization and nitrification. While the application of black oat did increase the soil pH, overall it had much less effect on soil biological processes and C and N pools than did lime. We concluded that black oat cannot replace the need for lime to optimize crop production in these tropical NT systems. In the long term, however, black oat should aid in the amelioration of acidity and replenishment of soil organic C pools and should help reduce erosion. Overall, this study suggests that overapplication of inorganic fertilizer N may occur in some tropical NT systems. Further experiments are required in NT systems to investigate the use of slow-release N fertilizers in combination with lime and black oat as a mechanism to reduce acidification and promote sustainability.

Transgenic tobacco revealing altered bacterial diversity in the rhizosphere during early plant development

The rhizosphere constitutes a complex niche that may be exploited by a wide variety of bacteria. Bacterium-plant interactions in this niche can be influenced by factors such as the expression of heterologous genes in the plant. The objective of this work was to describe the bacterial communities associated with the rhizosphere and rhizoplane regions of tobacco plants, and to compare communities from transgenic tobacco lines (CAB1, CAB2 and TRP) with those found in wild-type (WT) plants. Samples were collected at two stages of plant development, the vegetative and flowering stages (1 and 3 months after germination). The diversity of the culturable microbial community was assessed by isolation and further characterization of isolates by amplified ribosomal RNA gene restriction analysis (ARDRA) and 16S rRNA sequencing. These analyses revealed the presence of fairly common rhizosphere organisms with the main groups Alphaproteobacteria, Betaproteobacteria, Actinobacteria and Bacilli. Analysis of the total bacterial communities using PCR-DGGE (denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis) revealed that shifts in bacterial communities occurred during early plant development, but the reestablishment of original community structure was observed over time. The effects were smaller in rhizosphere than in rhizoplane samples, where selection of specific bacterial groups by the different plant lines was demonstrated. Clustering patterns and principal components analysis (PCA) were used to distinguish the plant lines according to the fingerprint of their associated bacterial communities. Bands differentially detected in plant lines were found to be affiliated with the genera Pantoea, Bacillus and Burkholderia in WT, CAB and TRP plants, respectively. The data revealed that, although rhizosphere/rhizoplane microbial communities can be affected by the cultivation of transgenic plants, soil resilience may be able to restore the original bacterial diversity after one cycle of plant cultivation.

Evapotranspiration and crop coefficients of seedless watermelon

The research was developed in Fortaleza, CE (latitude 3 degrees 43`S, longitude of 38 degrees 32`W and altitude of 19.5 m). It aimed to determine the Evapotranspiration and the crop coefficients for the different stadiums of seedless watermelon (Citrullus lanatus, Schrad), using the water balance method in drainage lysimeter. The experimental unit consisted of four located drainage lysimeter in an area of 600 m(2). The culture Evapotranspiration (ETc) was determined by the method of the water balance, in a volume of soil control with depth of 0.45 m, whose humidity was monitored by tensiometers. The reference Evapotranspiration (ETo) was estimated by the method of the class A pan. The crop coefficients were obtained from the rate between ETc and ETo in the different stages. The ETc presented growing values from the vegetative stage to the fruiting stage, dropping straight away in the mature stage. The maximum value of kc was observed in the fruiting stage.

SOYBEAN YIELD COMPONENTS IN DIFFERENT SOWING PERIODS IN THE WESTERN OF STATE OF BAHIA

Yield is closely linked to the plant yield components and depend directly of the genotype interaction with the environment. Essays were installed in the experimental field of the Bahia Foundation in the Maria Gabriela farm in the county of Sao Desiderio - BA in the year 2006-2007. The aim of this work was to evaluate yield components of five soybean cultivars with different maturation cycles indicated for the Western Region of Bahia in different sowing periods. The experimental design was in random blocks in 4 x 5 factorial scheme (four sowing periods: Ep1 first - 11/29/2006, Ep2 second - 12/14/2006, Ep3 third - 12/28/2007, Ep4 fourth - 01/12/2007 and five cultivars: M-SOY 8411, BRS Corisco, BRS 263 [Diferente], BRS Barreiras e M-SOY 9350) with four repetitions. The following characteristics were evaluated: total number of pods per plant, total number of beans per plant, mass of 1000 beans and yield. Plant yield components, total number of pods per plant, total number of beans per plant, mass of 1000 beans, reduced with sowing delay and showed compensation effect between cultivars and sowing periods. Late sowing Ep3 (28/12/2006) and Ep4 (12/01/2007) were not favourable to raise yield of soybean in the Western Region of Bahia.

Spatial patterns of soil attributes and components in a mangrove system in Southeast Brazil (Sao Paulo)

Purpose Among environmental factors governing innumerous processes that are active in estuarine environments, those of edaphic character have received special attention in recent studies. With the objectives of determining the spatial patterns of soil attributes and components across different mangrove forest landscapes and obtaining additional information on the cause-effect relationships between these variables and position within the estuary, we analyzed several soil attributes in 31 mangrove soil profiles from the state of So Paulo (Guaruja, Brazil). Materials and methods Soil samples were collected at low tide along two transects within the CrumahA(0) mangrove forest. Samples were analyzed to determine pH, Eh, salinity, and the percentages of sand, silt, clay, total organic carbon (TOC), and total S. Mineralogy of the clay fraction (< 2 mm) was also studied by X-ray diffraction analysis, and partitioning of solid-phase Fe was performed by sequential extraction. Results and discussion The results obtained indicate important differences in soil composition at different depths and landscape positions, causing variations in physicochemical parameters, clay mineralogy, TOC contents, and iron geochemistry. The results also indicate that physicochemical conditions may vary in terms of different local microtopographies. Soil salinity was determined by relative position in relation to flood tide and transition areas with highlands. The proportions of TOC and total S are conditioned by the sedimentation of organic matter derived from vegetation and by the prevailing redox conditions, which clearly favored intense sulfate reduction in the soils (similar to 80% of the total Fe is Fe-pyrite). Particle-size distribution is conditioned by erosive/deposition processes (present and past) and probably by the positioning of ancient and reworked sandy ridges. The existing physicochemical conditions appear to contribute to the synthesis (smectite) and transformation (kaolinite) of clay minerals. Conclusions The results demonstrate that the position of soils in the estuary greatly affects soil attributes. Differences occur even at small scales (meters), indicating that both edaphic (soil classification, soil mineralogy, and soil genesis) and environmental (contamination and carbon stock) studies should take such variability into account.

Components of Surface Charge in Tropical Soils With Contrasting Mineralogies

Study of surface electric charges of soil colloids helps in understanding the physicochemical phenomena that influence the capacity of retaining nutrients and their availability to plants. The structural charge (sigma(0), (min)), the variable charge (sigma(q, min)), and the organic matter (OM) charge (sigma(total) (OM)) of 12 tropical soils with contrasting mineralogies were evaluated based on the difference of selectivity for Cs(+) and Li(+) between the functional ionizable surfaces groups and the mineral 2:1 siloxane surface. Soils were divided into three groups: G1, soils with a predominance of kaolinite and gibbsite in the clay fraction; G2, soils with hydroxy-interlayered 2:1 minerals; and G3, soils with smectite but without hydroxy-interlayered 2:1 minerals. The Cs absorption method was efficient for detecting the charge components in tropical soils. The mineral structural charge contributed 11% and 16%, 28% and 31%, and 52% and 59% of total soil charge of A and B horizons of soils from groups G 1, G2, and G3, respectively. On the other hand, OM contributed 53% and 37%, 48% and 41%, and 21% and 20% of total charge for the same samples, respectively, In highly weathered soils of group G I and, to a lesser extent, in soils in group G2, surface charges depended mainly on their variable components, resulting from the OM (sigma(toal) (OM)), as well as from imperfections found in 1:1 minerals (sigma(q, min)). The importance of OM in determining the magnitude of electric charges in humid tropical soils is highlighted.

Interaction Between Polar Components and the Degree of Unsaturation of Fatty Acids on the Oxidative Stability of Emulsions

Minor components (polar components) and the degree of unsaturation of the fatty acids are the main factors responsible for the oxidative stability of bulk oils and emulsions. The isolated effects of these two factors and their interaction were evaluated in oil-in-water emulsions stored at 32 A degrees C. Samples of coconut, olive, soybean, linseed and fish oils, both full and stripped of their polar components, were used to prepare the emulsions (1% w/w). The maximum concentration of hydroperoxide (LOOH(max)) and the rate of formation of hydroperoxides (mu mol L(-1) h(-1)) were used to measure the primary products. Hexanal, propanal and malondialdehyde were used to determine the secondary products of the oxidized emulsions containing polyunsaturated fatty acids. LOOH(max) varied from 0.16 to 12.75 mmol/kg among the samples. The interaction between the polar components and the degree of unsaturation of the fatty acids was significant (p < 0.001) when the hydroperoxides were evaluated. In general, the degree of unsaturation (beta(1)) and the absence of polar components (beta(2)), respectively, represented 30 and 20% of the contribution to increase the mean oxidation, with the interaction (beta(12)) contribution being more sensitive to the rate of formation of hydroperoxides (16%) than to the LOOH(max) (5%). The significance of this interaction suggests that both strategies present synergism and should be applied to improve the oxidative stability of food emulsions.

Hydrolysis Influence on Phytochemical Composition, Antioxidant Activity, Plasma Concentration, and Tissue Distribution of Hydroethanolic Ilex paraguariensis Extract Components

The infusion of aerial parts of Ilex paraguariensis is widely consumed. Its antioxidant activity suggests an important role of this plant in the treatment/prevention of oxidative stress related diseases. Plant extract active compounds are frequently found in esterified form that may be poorly absorbed. Hydrolysis of the extract is a possible approach to increase its bioavailability. The aim of this study was to perform a phytochemical analysis and evaluate in rats the plasma concentration and tissue distribution of antioxidant compounds in the hydroethanolic extract of Ilex paraguariensis, before and after enzymatic hydrolysis. Both extracts presented high antioxidant activity and phenolic content. Rats given single or repeated doses of the hydrolyzed extract showed increased plasma antioxidant activity and higher plasma levels of caffeic acid. However, no changes of endogenous antioxidants were observed. In conclusion, hydrolysis of the extract of Ilex paraguariensis is a strategy to improve its bioavailability and in vivo antioxidant activity.