Spatio-temporal modeling of agricultural yield data with an application to pricing crop insurance contracts

This article presents a statistical model of agricultural yield data based on a set of hierarchical Bayesian models that allows joint modeling of temporal and spatial autocorrelation. This method captures a comprehensive range of the various uncertainties involved in predicting crop insurance premium rates as opposed to the more traditional ad hoc, two-stage methods that are typically based on independent estimation and prediction. A panel data set of county-average yield data was analyzed for 290 counties in the State of Parana (Brazil) for the period of 1990 through 2002. Posterior predictive criteria are used to evaluate different model specifications. This article provides substantial improvements in the statistical and actuarial methods often applied to the calculation of insurance premium rates. These improvements are especially relevant to situations where data are limited.

Parametric and nonparametric statistical modelling of crop yield: implications for pricing crop insurance contracts

This article considers alternative methods to calculate the fair premium rate of crop insurance contracts based on county yields. The premium rate was calculated using parametric and nonparametric approaches to estimate the conditional agricultural yield density. These methods were applied to a data set of county yield provided by the Statistical and Geography Brazilian Institute (IBGE), for the period of 1990 through 2002, for soybean, corn and wheat, in the State of Paran. In this article, we propose methodological alternatives to pricing crop insurance contracts resulting in more accurate premium rates in a situation of limited data.

Crop rotation in center-pivot for phytonematode control: density variation, pathogenicity and crop loss estimation

Crop rotation in center-pivot for phytonematode control: density variation, pathogenicity and crop loss estimation A field study conducted over three consecutive years, on a farm using crop rotation system under center-pivot and infested with the nematodes Pratylenchus brachyurus, P. zeae, Meloidogyne incognita, Paratrichodorus minor, Helicotylenchus dihystera, Mesocriconema ornata and M. onoense, demonstrated that intensive crop systems provide conditions for the maintenance of high densities of polyphagous phytonematodes. Of the crops established on the farm (cotton, maize, soybean and cowpea), cotton and soybean suffered the most severe crop losses, caused respectively by M. incognita and P. brachyurus. Since maize is a good host for both nematodes, but tolerant of M. incognita, its exclusion from cropping system would be favorable to the performance of cotton, soybean and cowpea. Results from experiments carried out in controlled conditions confirmed the pathogenicity of P. brachyurus on cotton. Additional management with genetic resistance was useful in fields infested with M. incognita, although the soybean performance was affected by low resistance of the cultivars used for P. brachyurus. In conclusion, crop rotation must be carefully planned in areas infested with polyphagous nematodes, specifically in the case of occurrence of two or more major pathogenic nematodes.

Evaluation of damage caused on Coffea arabica by a population of Pratylenchus coffeae considered non-pathogenic on coffee

Evaluation of damage caused on Coffea arabica by a population of Pratylenchus coffeae considered non-pathogenic on coffee Two greenhouse experiments were carried out in order to evaluate the damage caused on Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica) by an M(2) population of Pratylenchus coffeae, apparently non-pathogenic to coffee. Experiment 1, with `Catua Vermelho` coffee at stage of two leaf pairs and with the initial nematode densities (Pi) of 0; 333; 1,000; 3.000; and 9,000 per plant, demonstrated that M(2) can damage young coffee plants, although it is unable to reproduce on coffee roots. Experiment 2, with the same coffee cultivar and nematode densities, but with plants at stage of six leaf pairs, showed that the M2 population was unable to cause damage. Therefore, it was established that M(2) is a population of P. coffeae without reproduction on Arabica coffee, which causes damage only in the first generation on young coffee below stages of six leaf pairs.

A role for ferritin in the antioxidant system in coffee cell cultures

Iron (Fe) is an essential nutrient for plants, but it can generate oxidative stress at high concentrations. In this study, Coffea arabica L. cell suspension cultures were exposed to excess Fe (60 and 240 mu M) to investigate changes in the gene expression of ferritin and antioxidant enzymes. Iron content accumulated during cell growth, and Western blot analysis showed an increase of ferritin in cells treated with Fe. The expression of two ferritin genes retrieved from the Brazilian coffee EST database was studied. CaFER1, but not CaFER2, transcripts were induced by Fe exposure. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that CaFER1 is not similar to CaFER2 or to any ferritin that has been characterised in detail. The increase in ferritin gene expression was accompanied by an increase in the activity of antioxidant enzymes. Superoxide dismutase, guaiacol peroxidase, catalase, and glutathione reductase activities increased in cells grown in the presence of excess Fe, especially at 60 mu M, while the activity of glutathione S-transferase decreased. These data suggest that Fe induces oxidative stress in coffee cell suspension cultures and that ferritin participates in the antioxidant system to protect cells against oxidative damage. Thus, cellular Fe concentrations must be finely regulated to avoid cellular damage most likely caused by increased oxidative stress induced by Fe. However, transcriptional analyses indicate that ferritin genes are differentially controlled, as only CaFER1 expression was responsive to Fe treatment.

Water use and crop coefficient for hybrid DKB 390

Water use and crop coefficient for hybrid DKB 390. This work aims to characterize the water use of maize hybrid DKB 390 under suitable conditions of irrigation for both sufficient and below-optimal situations of nitrogen supply. Crop coefficient values for different stages are also presented as a result, in order to provide the basis for crop water budget and management throughout the cycle. A field experiment was carried Out during the main season, in which biomass, soil moisture, leaf area, climate data and light transmittance were evaluated. These have allowed deriving water balance, use and efficiency. The mentioned genotype requires around 600 nun for high yield targets, being less efficient when led under below-optimal nitrogen fertilization.

Photosynthesis, Chlorophylls, and SPAD Readings in Coffee Leaves in Relation to Nitrogen Supply

The export of nitrogen (N) from senescent plant parts is important for the efficient use of this macronutrient. The objective of this study was to establish correlations among the photosynthetic pigment content, total N, and the photosynthetic variables with the SPAD-502 readings in Coffea arabica leaves. Correlations were established among the chlorophyll content, N content, and chlorophyll a and b with SPAD-502 readings taken on coffee leaves at different months. The results show that all variables decreased with time. However, correlation increased linearly with N doses. Total chlorophyll presented a direct linear correlation with readings of the portable chlorophyll meter. The SPAD readings have shown to be a good tool to diagnose the integrity of the photosynthetic system in coffee leaves. Thus, the portable chlorophyll SPAD-502 instrument can be used to evaluate the N status and can also help to evaluate the photosynthetic process in coffee plants.

CLIMATOLOGICAL HYDRIC BALANCE, EFFECTIVE SOIL WATER STORAGE AND TRANSPIRATION IN COFFEE CULTURE

The climatic water balance is one of the most used tools to assess, indirectly the amount of water present in the soil is capable of meeting the water needs of the plant. This study analyzed the climatologic hydric balance, the effective soil water storage and coffee plant transpiration in dry regimen cultivation. Daily climatologic hydric balance was calculated for coffee from January 2003 to May 2006. It was concluded that even in the most rainy months of the year, there is a hydric deficit in coffee plants grown in a dry regimen; effective soil water storage varied greatly through the years evaluated, and September was the most critical month, when this value remained below 30%; relative transpiration can not be taken as the single evaluation method for yield losses of coffee, grown in a dry regimen.

Carbon and Nitrogen Dynamics in an Oxisol as Affected by Liming and Crop Residues under No-Till

The short-term effects of surface lime application and black oat (Avena strigosa Schreb.) residues, with or without N fertilization, were evaluated in a long-term no-till (NT) system on a sandy clay loam, a kaolinitic, thermic Typic Hapludox from the state of Parana, Brazil. The main plot treatments were: control and dolomitic lime applied on soil surface at 8 Mg ha(-1). Three treatments with crop residues were evaluated on the subplots: (i) fallow, (ii) black oat residues, and (iii) black oat residues aft er N fertilization at 180 kg ha(-1). Black oat dry biomass was not affected by the treatments during 3 yr. Surface liming increased soil pH, microbial biomass, microbial activity, and bacterial/fungal ratio at the soil surface (0-5 cm), resulting in increased amino acid turnover, water-soluble humic substances formation, and N mineralization and nitrification. While the application of black oat did increase the soil pH, overall it had much less effect on soil biological processes and C and N pools than did lime. We concluded that black oat cannot replace the need for lime to optimize crop production in these tropical NT systems. In the long term, however, black oat should aid in the amelioration of acidity and replenishment of soil organic C pools and should help reduce erosion. Overall, this study suggests that overapplication of inorganic fertilizer N may occur in some tropical NT systems. Further experiments are required in NT systems to investigate the use of slow-release N fertilizers in combination with lime and black oat as a mechanism to reduce acidification and promote sustainability.

Evapotranspiration and crop coefficients of seedless watermelon

The research was developed in Fortaleza, CE (latitude 3 degrees 43`S, longitude of 38 degrees 32`W and altitude of 19.5 m). It aimed to determine the Evapotranspiration and the crop coefficients for the different stadiums of seedless watermelon (Citrullus lanatus, Schrad), using the water balance method in drainage lysimeter. The experimental unit consisted of four located drainage lysimeter in an area of 600 m(2). The culture Evapotranspiration (ETc) was determined by the method of the water balance, in a volume of soil control with depth of 0.45 m, whose humidity was monitored by tensiometers. The reference Evapotranspiration (ETo) was estimated by the method of the class A pan. The crop coefficients were obtained from the rate between ETc and ETo in the different stages. The ETc presented growing values from the vegetative stage to the fruiting stage, dropping straight away in the mature stage. The maximum value of kc was observed in the fruiting stage.

Test procedure for variable rate fertilizer on coffee

The objective was to develop and test a procedure for applying variable rates of fertilizers and evaluate yield response in coffee (Coffea arabica L.) with regard to the application of phosphorus and potassium. The work was conducted during the 2004 season in a 6.4 ha field located in central Sao Paulo state. Two treatments were applied with alternating strips of fixed and variable rates during the whole season: one following the fertilizing procedures recommended locally, and the other based on a grid soil sampling. A prototype pneumatic fertilizer applicator was used, carrying two conveyor belts, one for each row. Harvesting was done with a commercial harvester equipped with a customized volumetric yield monitor, separating the two treatments. Data were analyzed based on geostatistics, correlations and regressions. The procedure showed to be feasible and effective. The area that received fertilizer applications at a variable rate showed a 34% yield increase compared to the area that received a fixed rate. The variable rate fertilizer resulted in a savings of 23% in phosphate fertilizer and a 13% increase in potassium fertilizer, when compared to fixed rate fertilizer. Yield in 2005, the year after the variable rate treatments, still presented residual effect from treatments carried out during the previous cycle.

Interaction between forest fragments and adjacent coffee and pasture agroecosystems: responses of the ant communities (Hymenoptera, Formicidae)

The responses of the ant community to environmental change, from forest fragment to agroecosystems (coffee or pasture) were evaluated in the south of the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. In this paper we analized the interactions between forest and the two most typical agroecosystem from southest Brazil: sun-growing coffee plantation and introduced pasture. We sampled the ant community from five of each agroecosystems, inside the adjacent forest fragment, and on the edge between them. In each site we removed the litter from fifteen 1m(2) plots and extracted the ants using a Winkler extractor. A total of 165 ant species, distributed in 48 genera and 10 subfamilies were recorded. The coffee plantation presented the lowest abundance and estimated species richness. The causes of the changes observed among the areas are discussed.

Attainment of O/W emulsions containing liquid crystal from annatto oil (Bixa orellana), coffee oil, and tea tree oil (Melaleuca alternifolia) as oily phase using HLB system and ternary phase diagram

Emulsions containing liquid crystals present interesting properties and advantages such as the skin moisturize increase, active release modulation, and emulsion stabilization. In this work, emulsions containing annatto, coffee and tea tree oils, and nonionic surfactants were developed. The HLB method was used for selection of surfactants. The required HLB value was established (9.0). Liquid crystals were attained when used the surfactant mixture Ceteareth-5 and Steareth-2 and identified as lamellar. The emulsions showed pseudoplastic behavior and tixotropy. The ternary diagram was useful in the selection of the proportion of surfactant and oily phase considering skin compatibility and liquid crystal presence.