31 resultados para agent-based modelling
Resumo:
Chagas disease is still a major public health problem in Latin America. Its causative agent, Trypanosoma cruzi, can be typed into three major groups, T. cruzi I, T. cruzi II and hybrids. These groups each have specific genetic characteristics and epidemiological distributions. Several highly virulent strains are found in the hybrid group; their origin is still a matter of debate. The null hypothesis is that the hybrids are of polyphyletic origin, evolving independently from various hybridization events. The alternative hypothesis is that all extant hybrid strains originated from a single hybridization event. We sequenced both alleles of genes encoding EF-1 alpha, actin and SSU rDNA of 26 T. cruzi strains and DHFR-TS and TR of 12 strains. This information was used for network genealogy analysis and Bayesian phylogenies. We found T. cruzi I and T. cruzi II to be monophyletic and that all hybrids had different combinations of T. cruzi I and T. cruzi II haplotypes plus hybrid-specific haplotypes. Bootstrap values (networks) and posterior probabilities (Bayesian phylogenies) of clades supporting the monophyly of hybrids were far below the 95% confidence interval, indicating that the hybrid group is polyphyletic. We hypothesize that T. cruzi I and T. cruzi II are two different species and that the hybrids are extant representatives of independent events of genome hybridization, which sporadically have sufficient fitness to impact on the epidemiology of Chagas disease.
Resumo:
The aim of this paper was to study a method based on gas production technique to measure the biological effects of tannins on rumen fermentation. Six feeds were used as fermentation substrates in a semi-automated gas method: feed A - aroeira (Astronium urundeuva); feed B - jurema preta (Mimosa hostilis), feed C - sorghum grains (Sorghum bicolor); feed D - Tifton-85 (Cynodon sp.); and two others prepared mixing 450 g sorghum leaves, 450 g concentrate (maize and soybean meal) and 100 g either of acacia (Acacia mearnsii) tannin extract (feed E) or quebracho (Schinopsis lorentzii) tannin extract (feed F) per kg (w:w). Three assays were carried out to standardize the bioassay for tannins. The first assay compared two binding agents (polyethylene glycol - PEG - and polyvinyl polypirrolidone - PVPP) to attenuate the tannin effects. The complex formed by PEG and tannins showed to be more stable than PVPP and tannins. Then, in the second assay, PEG was used as binding agent, and this assay was done to evaluate levels of PEG (0, 500, 750, 1000 and 1250 mg/g DM) to minimize the tannin effect. All the tested levels of PEG produced a response to evaluate tannin effects but the best response was for dose of 1000 mg/g DM. Using this dose of PEG, the final assay was carried out to test three compounds (tannic acid, quebracho extract and acacia extract) to establish a curve of biological equivalent effect of tannins. For this, five levels of each compound were added to I g of a standard feed (Lucerne hay). The equivalent effect showed not to be directly related to the chemical analysis for tannins. It was shown that different sources of tannins had different activities or reactivities. The curves of biological equivalence can provide information about tannin reactivity and its use seems to be important as an additional factor for chemical analysis. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Moniliophthora perniciosa is the causal agent of the witches` broom disease of cacao. Based on available genomic sequences, we identified 30 new microsatellite loci, which were analysed using 50 isolates from four populations sampled over a wide geographical area in Brazil, including three populations from the Amazon, the fungal putative centre of diversity, plus one from Bahia. Nine loci were polymorphic, with an average of 2.9 alleles per locus. The level of polymorphism observed was low, but these markers may allow the evaluation of pathogen diversity and the establishment of molecular standards for isolate fingerprinting to support cacao breeding.
Resumo:
This paper investigates the validity of a simplified equivalent reservoir representation of a multi-reservoir hydroelectric system for modelling its optimal operation for power maximization. This simplification, proposed by Arvanitidis and Rosing (IEEE Trans Power Appar Syst 89(2):319-325, 1970), imputes a potential energy equivalent reservoir with energy inflows and outflows. The hydroelectric system is also modelled for power maximization considering individual reservoir characteristics without simplifications. Both optimization models employed MINOS package for solution of the non-linear programming problems. A comparison between total optimized power generation over the planning horizon by the two methods shows that the equivalent reservoir is capable of producing satisfactory power estimates with less than 6% underestimation. The generation and total reservoir storage trajectories along the planning horizon obtained by equivalent reservoir method, however, presented significant discrepancies as compared to those found in the detailed modelling. This study is motivated by the fact that Brazilian generation system operations are based on the equivalent reservoir method as part of the power dispatch procedures. The potential energy equivalent reservoir is an alternative which eliminates problems with the dimensionality of state variables in a dynamic programming model.
Resumo:
Ecological niche modelling combines species occurrence points with environmental raster layers in order to obtain models for describing the probabilistic distribution of species. The process to generate an ecological niche model is complex. It requires dealing with a large amount of data, use of different software packages for data conversion, for model generation and for different types of processing and analyses, among other functionalities. A software platform that integrates all requirements under a single and seamless interface would be very helpful for users. Furthermore, since biodiversity modelling is constantly evolving, new requirements are constantly being added in terms of functions, algorithms and data formats. This evolution must be accompanied by any software intended to be used in this area. In this scenario, a Service-Oriented Architecture (SOA) is an appropriate choice for designing such systems. According to SOA best practices and methodologies, the design of a reference business process must be performed prior to the architecture definition. The purpose is to understand the complexities of the process (business process in this context refers to the ecological niche modelling problem) and to design an architecture able to offer a comprehensive solution, called a reference architecture, that can be further detailed when implementing specific systems. This paper presents a reference business process for ecological niche modelling, as part of a major work focused on the definition of a reference architecture based on SOA concepts that will be used to evolve the openModeller software package for species modelling. The basic steps that are performed while developing a model are described, highlighting important aspects, based on the knowledge of modelling experts. In order to illustrate the steps defined for the process, an experiment was developed, modelling the distribution of Ouratea spectabilis (Mart.) Engl. (Ochnaceae) using openModeller. As a consequence of the knowledge gained with this work, many desirable improvements on the modelling software packages have been identified and are presented. Also, a discussion on the potential for large-scale experimentation in ecological niche modelling is provided, highlighting opportunities for research. The results obtained are very important for those involved in the development of modelling tools and systems, for requirement analysis and to provide insight on new features and trends for this category of systems. They can also be very helpful for beginners in modelling research, who can use the process and the experiment example as a guide to this complex activity. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
High-angle grain boundary migration is predicted during geometric dynamic recrystallization (GDRX) by two types of mathematical models. Both models consider the driving pressure due to curvature and a sinusoidal driving pressure owing to subgrain walls connected to the grain boundary. One model is based on the finite difference solution of a kinetic equation, and the other, on a numerical technique in which the boundary is subdivided into linear segments. The models show that an initially flat boundary becomes serrated, with the peak and valley migrating into both adjacent grains, as observed during GDRX. When the sinusoidal driving pressure amplitude is smaller than 2 pi, the boundary stops migrating, reaching an equilibrium shape. Otherwise, when the amplitude is larger than 2 pi, equilibrium is never reached and the boundary migrates indefinitely, which would cause the protrusions of two serrated parallel boundaries to impinge on each other, creating smaller equiaxed grains.
Resumo:
Susceptible-infective-removed (SIR) models are commonly used for representing the spread of contagious diseases. A SIR model can be described in terms of a probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA), where each individual (corresponding to a cell of the PCA lattice) is connected to others by a random network favoring local contacts. Here, this framework is employed for investigating the consequences of applying vaccine against the propagation of a contagious infection, by considering vaccination as a game, in the sense of game theory. In this game, the players are the government and the susceptible newborns. In order to maximize their own payoffs, the government attempts to reduce the costs for combating the epidemic, and the newborns may be vaccinated only when infective individuals are found in their neighborhoods and/or the government promotes an immunization program. As a consequence of these strategies supported by cost-benefit analysis and perceived risk, numerical simulations show that the disease is not fully eliminated and the government implements quasi-periodic vaccination campaigns. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
The thermodynamic assessment of an Al(2)O(3)-MnO pseudo-binary system has been carried out with the use of an ionic model. The use of the electro-neutrality principles in addition to the constitutive relations, between site fractions of the species on each sub-lattice, the thermodynamics descriptions of each solid phase has been determined to make possible the solubility description. Based on the thermodynamics descriptions of each phase in addition to thermo-chemical data obtained from the literature, the Gibbs energy functions were optimized for each phase of the Al(2)O(3)-MnO system with the support of PARROT(R) module from ThemoCalc(R) package. A thermodynamic database was obtained, in agreement with the thermo-chemical data extracted from the literature, to describe the Al(2)O(3)-MnO system including the solubility description of solid phases. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Witches` broom is a severe disease of Theobroma cacao L. (cacao), caused by the basidiomycete Moniliophthora perniciosa. The use of resistant cultivars is the ultimate method of control, but there are limited sources of resistance. Further, resistance from the most widely used source (`Scavina 6`) has been overcome after a few years of deployment. New sources of resistance have been intensively searched for in the Amazon basin. Here, we evaluated for witches` broom resistance, cacao accessions from various natural cacao populations originally collected in the Brazilian Amazon. Resistance of 43 families was evaluated under nursery and/or field conditions by artificial or natural infection, respectively, based on disease incidence. Screening for resistance by artificial inoculation under nursery conditions appeared to be efficient in identifying these novel resistance sources, confirmed by natural field evaluation over a nine-year period. The increase in natural field infection of `Scavina 6` was clearly demonstrated. Among the evaluated families with the least witches` broom incidence, there were accessions originally collected from distinct river basins, including the Jamari river (`CAB 0371`; `CAB 0388`; `CAB 0392`; and `CAB 0410`); Acre (`CAB 0169`); Javari (`CAB 0352`); Solimes (`CAB 0270`); and from the Purus river basin, the two most outstanding resistant accessions, `CAB 0208` and `CAB 0214`. The large genetic diversity found in cacao populations occurring at river basins from Acre and Amazonas states, Brazil, increased the chance that the selected resistant accessions would be genetically more dissimilar, and represent distinct sources of resistance to M. perniciosa from `Scavina 6`.
Resumo:
This article considers alternative methods to calculate the fair premium rate of crop insurance contracts based on county yields. The premium rate was calculated using parametric and nonparametric approaches to estimate the conditional agricultural yield density. These methods were applied to a data set of county yield provided by the Statistical and Geography Brazilian Institute (IBGE), for the period of 1990 through 2002, for soybean, corn and wheat, in the State of Paran. In this article, we propose methodological alternatives to pricing crop insurance contracts resulting in more accurate premium rates in a situation of limited data.
Resumo:
The objective of this study was to develop a dessert that contains soy protein (SP) (1%, 2%, 3%) and guava juice (GJ) (22%, 27%, 32%) using Response Surface Methodology (RSM) as the optimisation technique. Water activity, physical stability, colour, acidity, pH, iron, and carotenoid contents were analysed. Affective tests were performed to determine the degree of liking of colour, creaminess, and acceptability. The results showed that GJ increased the values of redness, hue angle, chromaticity, acidity, and carotenoid content, while SP reduced water activity. Optimisation suggested a dessert containing 32% GJ and 1.17% SP as the best proportion of these components. This sample was considered a source of fibres, ascorbic acid, copper, and iron and garnered scores above the level of `slightly liked` for sensory attributes. Moreover, RSM was shown to be an adequate approach for modelling the physicochemical parameters and the degree of liking of creaminess of desserts. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
This paper reports a method for the analysis of secondary metabolites stored in glandular trichomes, employing negative ion `chip-based` nanospray tandem mass spectrometry. The analyses of glandular trichomes from Lychnophora ericoides, a plant endemic to the Brazilian `cerrado` and used in traditional medicine as an anti-inflammatory and analgesic agent, led to the identification of five flavonoids (chrysin, pinocembrin, pinostrobin, pinobanksin and 3-O-acetylpinobanksin) by direct infusion of the extracts of glandular trichomes into the nanospray ionisation source. All the flavonoids have no oxidation at ring B, which resulted in a modification of the fragmentation pathways compared with that of the oxidised 3,4-dihydroflavonoids already described in the literature. The absence of the anti-inflammatory and antioxidant di-C-glucosylflavone vicenin-2, or any other flavonoid glycosides, in the glandular trichomes was also demonstrated. The use of the,`chip-based` nanospray QqTOF apparatus is a new fast and useful tool for the identification of secondary metabolites stored in the glandular trichomes, which can be useful for chemotaxonomic studies based on metabolites from glandular trichomes. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Resumo:
Background: Enoxaparin was superior to unfractionated heparin (UFH), regardless of fibrinolytic agent in ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients receiving fibrinolytic therapy in ExTRACT-TIMI 25 (Enoxaparin and Thrombolysis Reperfusion for Acute Myocardial Infarction Treatment Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction 25) trial. Objective: This post hoc analysis compared outcomes with streptokinase plus enoxaparin to the standard regimen of fibrin-specific lytic (FSL) plus UFH and to the newer combination of FSL plus enoxaparin. Methods: In ExTRACT-TIMI 25, STEMI patients received either streptokinase or a FSL (alteplase, reteplase or tenecteplase) at the physician`s discretion and were randomized to enoxaparin or UFH, stratified by fibrinolytic type. Thirty-day outcomes were adjusted for baseline characteristics, region, in-hospital percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and a propensity score for the choice of lytic. Results: The primary trial endpoint of 30-day death/myocardial infarction (MI) occurred in fewer patients in the streptokinase-enoxaparin cohort (n = 2083) compared with FSL-UFH (n = 8141) [10.2% vs 12.0%, adjusted odds ratio [OR(adj)] 0.76; 95% CI 0.62, 0.93; p = 0.008]. Major bleeding was significantly increased with streptokinase-enoxaparin compared with FSL-UFH (ORadj 2.74; 95% CI 1.81; 4.14; p < 0.001) but intracranial haemorrhage (ICH) was similar (OR(adj) 0.90; 95% CI 0.40, 2.01; p = 0.79). Net clinical outcomes, defined as either death/MI/major bleeding or as death/MI/ICH tended to favour streptokinase-enoxaparin compared with FSL-UFH (OR(adj) 0.88; 95% CI 0.73, 1.06; p = 0.17; and OR(adj) 0.77; 95% CI 0.63, 0.93; p = 0.008, respectively). Patients receiving FSL-enoxaparin (n = 8142) and streptokinase-enoxaparin therapies experienced similar adjusted rates of the primary endpoint (OR(adj) 1.08; 95% CI 0.87, 1.32; p = 0.49) and net clinical outcomes. Conclusions: Our results suggest that fibrinolytic therapy with the combination of streptokinase and the potent anticoagulant agent enoxaparin resulted in similar adjusted outcomes compared with more costly regimens utilizing a FSL.
Resumo:
The present work is a report of the characterization of superparamagnetic iron oxide nanoparticles coated with silicone used as a contrast agent in magnetic resonance imaging of the gastrointestinal tract. The hydrodynamic size of the contrast agent is 281.2 rim, where it was determined by transmission electron microscopy and a Fe(3)O(4) crystalline structure was identified by X-ray diffraction, also confirmed by Mossbauer Spectroscopy. The blocking temperature of 190 K was determined from magnetic measurements based on the Zero Field Cooled and Field Cooled methods. The hysteresis loops were measured at different temperatures below and above the blocking temperature. Ferromagnetic resonance analysis indicated the superparamagnetic nature of the nanoparticles and a strong temperature dependence of the peak-to-peak linewidth Delta H(pp), giromagnetic factor g, number of spins N(S) and relaxation time T(2) were observed. This behavior can be attributed to an increase in the superexchange interaction.
Resumo:
Fogo selvagem (FS) is mediated by pathogenic, predominantly IgG4, anti-desmoglein 1 (Dsg1) autoantibodies and is endemic in Limao Verde, Brazil. IgG and IgG subclass autoantibodies were tested in a sample of 214 FS patients and 261 healthy controls by Dsg1 ELISA. For model selection, the sample was randomly divided into training (50%), validation (25%), and test (25%) sets. Using the training and validation sets, IgG4 was chosen as the best predictor of FS, with index values above 6.43 classified as FS. Using the test set, IgG4 has sensitivity of 92% (95% confidence interval (95% CI): 82-95%), specificity of 97% (95% CI: 89-100%), and area under the curve of 0.97 ( 95% CI: 0.94-1.00). The IgG4 positive predictive value (PPV) in Limao Verde (3% FS prevalence) was 49%. The sensitivity, specificity, and PPV of IgG anti-Dsg1 were 87, 91, and 23%, respectively. The IgG4-based classifier was validated by testing 11 FS patients before and after clinical disease and 60 Japanese pemphigus foliaceus patients. It classified 21 of 96 normal individuals from a Limao Verde cohort as having FS serology. On the basis of its PPV, half of the 21 individuals may currently have preclinical FS and could develop clinical disease in the future. Identifying individuals during preclinical FS will enhance our ability to identify the etiological agent(s) triggering FS.