Fuzzy risk index for power transformer failures due to external short-circuits

A novel methodology to assess the risk of power transformer failures caused by external faults, such as short-circuit, taking the paper insulation condition into account, is presented. The risk index is obtained by contrasting the insulation paper condition with the probability that the transformer withstands the short-circuit current flowing along the winding during an external fault. In order to assess the risk, this probability and the value of the degree of polymerization of the insulating paper are regarded as inputs of a type-2 fuzzy logic system (T2-FLS), which computes the fuzzy risk level. A Monte Carlo simulation has been used to find the survival function of the currents flowing through the transformer winding during a single-phase or a three-phase short-circuit. The Roy Billinton Test System and a real power system have been used to test the results. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Role for postoperative cortisol response to desmopressin in predicting the risk for recurrent Cushing`s disease

In the early postoperative period of Cushing`s disease patients, desmopressin may stimulate ACTH secretion in the remnant corticotrophic tumour, but not in nontumour suppressed cells. Objective The aim of this study is to evaluate the serum cortisol responses to desmopressin after pituitary surgery, establishing an optimal cut-off for absolute increment (Delta) of serum cortisol (F) suitable to predict recurrence risk. Design Retrospective case record study. Patients Fifty-seven Cushing`s disease patients submitted to pituitary surgery and desmopressin stimulation in the early postoperative with a long-term follow-up (20-161 months) were studied. Methods and measurements Serum cortisol levels after desmopressin test (10 mu g IV) 15-30 days after adenomectomy were used to determine Delta F (absolute increment of F: F peak - F baseline). Sensitivity and specificity of Delta F were calculated and a ROC curve was performed to establish an optimal cut-off for Delta F to predict recurrence risk. Results Fifteen patients had immediate postoperative failure (basal F > 165 nmol/l; 6 mu g/dl) and one patient was lost during the follow-up. Forty-one patients achieved initial remission and were followed-up. Five of 11 patients who recurred had Delta F > 193 nmol/l (7 mu g/dl), but none of 30 patients who remained in prolonged remission showed Delta F > 193 nmol/l after postoperative desmopressin stimulation. Conclusions Persistence of cortisol response (Delta F > 193 nmol/l) to desmopressin in the early postoperative period can help to identify Cushing`s disease patients with initial remission who present risk for later recurrence.

Vitamin D insufficiency: A risk factor to vertebral fractures in community-dwelling elderly women

Objective:To determine the risk factors for the presence of moderate/severe vertebral fracture, specifically 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25-OHD). Study design: Cross-sectional study conducted for 2 years in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil including community-dwelling elderly women. Methods: Bone mineral density (BMD), serum 25-OHD, intact parathyroid hormone (iPTH), calcium and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) were examined in 226 women without vertebral fractures (NO FRACTURE group) and 189 women with at least one moderate/severe vertebral fracture (FRACTURE group). Vertebral fracture assessment (VFA) was evaluated using both the Genant semiquantitative (SQ) approach and morphometry. Results: Patients in the NO FRACTURE group had lower age, increased height, higher calcium intake, and higher BMD compared to those patients in the FRACTURE group (p < 0.05). Of interest, serum levels of 25-OHD in the NO FRACTURE group were higher than those observed in the FRACTURE group (51.73 nmol/L vs. 42.31 nmol/L, p < 0.001). Reinforcing this finding, vitamin D insufficiency (25-OHD < 75 nmol/L) was observed less in the NO FRACTURE group (82.3% vs. 93.65%, p = 0.001). After adjustment for significant variables within the patient population (age, height, race, calcium intake, 25-OHD, eGFR and sites BMD), the logistic-regression analyses revealed that age (OR = 1.09, 95% Cl 1.04-1.14, p < 0.001) femoral neck BMD (OR = 0.7, 95% CI 0.6-0.82, p < 0.001) and 25-OHD <75 nmol/L (OR = 2.38, 95% CI 1.17-4.8, p = 0.016) remains a significant factor for vertebral fracture. Conclusion: Vitamin D insufficiency is a contributing factor for moderate/severe vertebral fractures. This result emphasizes the importance of including this modifiable risk factor in the evaluation of elderly women. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Validation of a strategy to diagnose coronary artery disease and predict cardiac events in high-risk renal transplant candidates

Background We validated a strategy for diagnosis of coronary artery disease ( CAD) and prediction of cardiac events in high-risk renal transplant candidates ( at least one of the following: age >= 50 years, diabetes, cardiovascular disease). Methods A diagnosis and risk assessment strategy was used in 228 renal transplant candidates to validate an algorithm. Patients underwent dipyridamole myocardial stress testing and coronary angiography and were followed up until death, renal transplantation, or cardiac events. Results The prevalence of CAD was 47%. Stress testing did not detect significant CAD in 1/3 of patients. The sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of the stress test for detecting CAD were 70, 74, 69, and 71%, respectively. CAD, defined by angiography, was associated with increased probability of cardiac events [log-rank: 0.001; hazard ratio: 1.90, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.29-2.92]. Diabetes (P=0.03; hazard ratio: 1.58, 95% CI: 1.06-2.45) and angiographically defined CAD (P=0.03; hazard ratio: 1.69, 95% CI: 1.08-2.78) were the independent predictors of events. Conclusion The results validate our observations in a smaller number of high-risk transplant candidates and indicate that stress testing is not appropriate for the diagnosis of CAD or prediction of cardiac events in this group of patients. Coronary angiography was correlated with events but, because less than 50% of patients had significant disease, it seems premature to recommend the test to all high-risk renal transplant candidates. The results suggest that angiography is necessary in many high-risk renal transplant candidates and that better noninvasive methods are still lacking to identify with precision patients who will benefit from invasive procedures. Coron Artery Dis 21: 164-167 (C) 2010 Wolters Kluwer Health vertical bar Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

Risk Estimates of Dengue in Travelers to Dengue Endemic Areas Using Mathematical Models

Dengue has emerged as a frequent problem in international travelers. The risk depends on destination, duration, and season of travel. However, data to quantify the true risk for travelers to acquire dengue are lacking. We used mathematical models to estimate the risk of nonimmune persons to acquire dengue when traveling to Singapore. From the force of infection, we calculated the risk of dengue dependent on duration of stay and season of arrival. Our data highlight that the risk for nonimmune travelers to acquire dengue in Singapore is substantial but varies greatly with seasons and epidemic cycles. For instance, for a traveler who stays in Singapore for 1 week during the high dengue season in 2005, the risk of acquiring dengue was 0.17%, but it was only 0.00423% during the low season in a nonepidemic year such as 2002. Risk estimates based on mathematical modeling will help the travel medicine provider give better evidence-based advice for travelers to dengue endemic countries.

Cessation of alcohol drinking, tobacco smoking and the reversal of head and neck cancer risk

Background Quitting tobacco or alcohol use has been reported to reduce the head and neck cancer risk in previous studies. However, it is unclear how many years must pass following cessation of these habits before the risk is reduced, and whether the risk ultimately declines to the level of never smokers or never drinkers. Methods We pooled individual-level data from case-control studies in the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology Consortium. Data were available from 13 studies on drinking cessation (9167 cases and 12 593 controls), and from 17 studies on smoking cessation (12 040 cases and 16 884 controls). We estimated the effect of quitting smoking and drinking on the risk of head and neck cancer and its subsites, by calculating odds ratios (ORs) using logistic regression models. Results Quitting tobacco smoking for 1-4 years resulted in a head and neck cancer risk reduction [OR 0.70, confidence interval (CI) 0.61-0.81 compared with current smoking], with the risk reduction due to smoking cessation after >= 20 years (OR 0.23, CI 0.18-0.31), reaching the level of never smokers. For alcohol use, a beneficial effect on the risk of head and neck cancer was only observed after >= 20 years of quitting (OR 0.60, CI 0.40-0.89 compared with current drinking), reaching the level of never drinkers. Conclusions Our results support that cessation of tobacco smoking and cessation of alcohol drinking protect against the development of head and neck cancer.

Changes in plasma free fatty acid levels in septic patients are associated with cardiac damage and reduction in heart rate variability

Free fatty acids (FFAs) have been shown to produce alteration of heart rate variability (HRV) in healthy and diabetic individuals. Changes in HRV have been described in septic patients and in those with hyperglycemia and elevated plasma FFA levels. We studied if sepsis-induced heart damage and HRV alteration are associated with plasma FFA levels in patients. Thirty-one patients with sepsis were included. The patients were divided into two groups: survivors(n = 12) and nonsurvivors (n = 19). The following associations were investigated: (a) troponin I elevation and HRV reduction and (b) clinical evolution and HRV index, plasma troponin, and plasma FFA levels. Initial measurements of C-reactive protein and gravity Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation scores were similar in both groups. Overall, an increase in plasma troponin level was related to increased mortality risk. From the first day of study, the nonsurvivor group presented a reduced left ventricular stroke work systolic index and a reduced low frequency (LF) that is one of HRV indexes. The correlation coefficient for LF values and troponin was r(2) = 0.75 (P < 0.05). All patients presented elevated plasma FFA levels on the first day of the study (5.11 +/- 0.53 mg/mL), and this elevation was even greater in the nonsurvivor group compared with the survivors (6.88 +/- 0.13 vs. 3.85 +/- 0.48 mg/mL, respectively; P < 0.05). Cardiac damage was confirmed by measurement of plasma troponin I and histological analysis. Heart dysfunction was determined by left ventricular stroke work systolic index and HRV index in nonsurvivor patients. A relationship was found between plasma FFA levels, LFnu index, troponin levels, and histological changes. Plasma FFA levels emerged as possible cause of heart damage in sepsis.

Risk Score to Predict the Outcome of Patients with Cerebral Vein and Dural Sinus Thrombosis

Background: Around 15% of patients die or become dependent after cerebral vein and dural sinus thrombosis (CVT). Method: We used the International Study on Cerebral Vein and Dural Sinus Thrombosis (ISCVT) sample (624 patients, with a median follow-up time of 478 days) to develop a Cox proportional hazards regression model to predict outcome, dichotomised by a modified Rankin Scale score > 2. From the model hazard ratios, a risk score was derived and a cut-off point selected. The model and the score were tested in 2 validation samples: (1) the prospective Cerebral Venous Thrombosis Portuguese Collaborative Study Group (VENO-PORT) sample with 91 patients; (2) a sample of 169 consecutive CVT patients admitted to 5 ISCVT centres after the end of the ISCVT recruitment period. Sensitivity, specificity, c statistics and overall efficiency to predict outcome at 6 months were calculated. Results: The model (hazard ratios: malignancy 4.53; coma 4.19; thrombosis of the deep venous system 3.03; mental status disturbance 2.18; male gender 1.60; intracranial haemorrhage 1.42) had overall efficiencies of 85.1, 84.4 and 90.0%, in the derivation sample and validation samples 1 and 2, respectively. Using the risk score (range from 0 to 9) with a cut-off of 6 3 points, overall efficiency was 85.4, 84.4 and 90.1% in the derivation sample and validation samples 1 and 2, respectively. Sensitivity and specificity in the combined samples were 96.1 and 13.6%, respectively. Conclusions: The CVT risk score has a good estimated overall rate of correct classifications in both validation samples, but its specificity is low. It can be used to avoid unnecessary or dangerous interventions in low-risk patients, and may help to identify high-risk CVT patients. Copyright (C) 2009 S. Karger AG, Basel

HbA(1c) as a risk factor for heart failure in persons with diabetes: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study

Heart failure (HF) incidence in diabetes in both the presence and absence of CHD is rising. Prospective population-based studies can help describe the relationship between HbA(1c), a measure of glycaemia control, and HF risk. We studied the incidence of HF hospitalisation or death among 1,827 participants in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study with diabetes and no evidence of HF at baseline. Cox proportional hazard models included age, sex, race, education, health insurance status, alcohol consumption, BMI and WHR, and major CHD risk factors (BP level and medications, LDL- and HDL-cholesterol levels, and smoking). In this population of persons with diabetes, crude HF incidence rates per 1,000 person-years were lower in the absence of CHD (incidence rate 15.5 for CHD-negative vs 56.4 for CHD-positive, p < 0.001). The adjusted HR of HF for each 1% higher HbA(1c) was 1.17 (95% CI 1.11-1.25) for the non-CHD group and 1.20 (95% CI 1.04-1.40) for the CHD group. When the analysis was limited to HF cases which occurred in the absence of prevalent or incident CHD (during follow-up) the adjusted HR remained 1.20 (95% CI 1.11-1.29). These data suggest HbA(1c) is an independent risk factor for incident HF in persons with diabetes with and without CHD. Long-term clinical trials of tight glycaemic control should quantify the impact of different treatment regimens on HF risk reduction.

Survival and quality of life of patients with oral and oropharyngeal cancer at 1-year follow-up of tumor resection

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to assess the survival and life quality evolution of patients subjected to surgical excision of oral and oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Forty-seven patients treated at a Brazilian healthcare unit specialized in head and neck surgery between 2006 and 2007 were enrolled in the study. The gathering of data comprised reviewing hospital files and applying the University of Washington Quality of Life (UW-QOL) questionnaire previously and 1 year after the surgery. Comparative analysis used Poisson regression to assess factors associated with survival and a paired t-test to compare preoperative and 1-year postoperative QOL ratings. RESULTS: 1 year after surgery, 7 patients were not found (dropout of the cohort); 15 had died and 25 fulfilled the UW-QOL again. The risk of death was associated with having regional metastasis previously to surgery (relative risk=2.18; 95% confidence interval=1.09-5.17) and tumor size T3 or T4 (RR=2.30; 95%CI=1.05-5.04). Survivors presented significantly (p<0.05) poorer overall and domain-specific ratings of quality of life. Chewing presented the largest reduction: from 74.0 before surgery to 34.0 one year later. Anxiety was the only domain whose average rating increased (from 36.0 to 70.7). CONCLUSIONS: The prospective assessment of survival and quality of life may contribute to anticipate interventions aimed at reducing the incidence of functional limitations in patients with oral and oropharyngeal cancer.

Richards growth model and viability indicators for populations subject to interventions

In this work we study the problem of modeling identification of a population employing a discrete dynamic model based on the Richards growth model. The population is subjected to interventions due to consumption, such as hunting or farming animals. The model identification allows us to estimate the probability or the average time for a population number to reach a certain level. The parameter inference for these models are obtained with the use of the likelihood profile technique as developed in this paper. The identification method here developed can be applied to evaluate the productivity of animal husbandry or to evaluate the risk of extinction of autochthon populations. It is applied to data of the Brazilian beef cattle herd population, and the the population number to reach a certain goal level is investigated.

Association of dental enamel lead levels with risk factors for environmental exposure

OBJECTIVE: To analyze household risk factors associated with high lead levels in surface dental enamel. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted with 160 Brazilian adolescents aged 14-18 years living in poor neighborhoods in the city of Bauru, southeastern Brazil, from August to December 2008. Body lead concentrations were assessed in surface dental enamel acid-etch microbiopsies. Dental enamel lead levels were measured by graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry and phosphorus levels were measured by inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry. The parents answered a questionnaire about their children's potential early (05 years old) exposure to well-known lead sources. Logistic regression was used to identify associations between dental enamel lead levels and each environmental risk factor studied. Social and familial covariables were included in the models. RESULTS: The results suggest that the adolescents studied were exposed to lead sources during their first years of life. Risk factors associated with high dental enamel lead levels were living in or close to a contaminated area (OR = 4.49; 95% CI: 1.69;11.97); and member of the household worked in the manufacturing of paints, paint pigments, ceramics or batteries (OR = 3.43; 95% CI: 1.31;9.00). Home-based use of lead-glazed ceramics, low-quality pirated toys, anticorrosive paint on gates and/or sale of used car batteries (OR = 1.31; 95% CI: 0.56;3.03) and smoking (OR = 1.66; 95% CI: 0.52;5.28) were not found to be associated with high dental enamel lead levels. CONCLUSIONS: Surface dental enamel can be used as a marker of past environmental exposure to lead and lead concentrations detected are associated to well-known sources of lead contamination.

Simplified flow cytometric assay to detect minimal residual disease in childhood with acute lymphoblastic leukemia

The detection of minimal residual disease (MRD) is an important prognostic factor in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) providing crucial information on the response to treatment and risk of relapse. However, the high cost of these techniques restricts their use in countries with limited resources. Thus, we prospectively studied the use of flow cytometry (FC) with a simplified 3-color assay and a limited antibody panel to detect MRD in the bone marrow (BM) and peripheral blood (PB) of children with ALL. BM and PB samples from 40 children with ALL were analyzed on days (d) 14 and 28 during induction and in weeks 24-30 of maintenance therapy. Detectable MRD was defined as > 0.01% cells expressing the aberrant immunophenotype as characterized at diagnosis among total events in the sample. A total of 87% of the patients had an aberrant immunophenotype at diagnosis. On d14, 56% of the BM and 43% of the PB samples had detectable MRD. On d28, this decreased to 45% and 31%, respectively. The percentage of cells with the aberrant phenotype was similar in both BM and PB in T-ALL but about 10 times higher in the BM of patients with B-cell-precursor ALL. Moreover, MRD was detected in the BM of patients in complete morphological remission (44% on d14 and 39% on d28). MRD was not significantly associated to gender, age, initial white blood cell count or cell lineage. This FC assay is feasible, affordable and readily applicable to detect MRD in centers with limited resources.

Vitaminas e minerais com propriedades antioxidantes e risco cardiometabólico: controvérsias e perspectivas

No processo celular de obtenção de energia, são gerados compostos chamados espécies reativas de oxigênio (ERO) que, em excesso, podem causar danos celulares. Estresse oxidativo resulta do desequilíbrio no estado de óxido-redução a favor da oxidação. Dos mecanismos de defesa antioxidante, participam enzimas endógenas e algumas vitaminas e minerais. A vitamina E encontra-se no plasma e na partícula de LDL, protegendo lipídeos da oxidação. Estudos observacionais relataram associação inversa entre ingestão de vitamina E e risco cardiometabólico (RCM). Entretanto, ensaios clínicos não comprovaram a eficácia de sua suplementação nos desfechos cardiometabólicos. A vitamina C participa do sistema de regeneração da vitamina E, mantendo o potencial antioxidante plasmático. Dados sobre os benefícios de sua suplementação na redução do risco cardiometabólico são inconclusivos. A atividade antioxidante dos carotenoides é responsável, em parte, por seu papel protetor contra doenças cardiovasculares e cânceres. A suplementação desse nutriente também não trouxe resultados consistentes no que se refere à redução do RCM. A participação do zinco e do selênio na defesa antioxidante vem sendo estudada mais recentemente, mas a sua suplementação em indivíduos com níveis séricos normais e ingestão adequada na dieta desses minerais não parece ser necessária. De um modo geral, há muita controvérsia sobre o papel desses micronutrientes no RCM. Estudos epidemiológicos sugerem que o consumo de substâncias antioxidantes provenientes da dieta ou dietas ricas em frutas e hortaliças diminui o RCM. Mais estudos são necessários antes de se recomendar o uso de antioxidantes isolados na forma de suplementos para tal finalidade.

O papel das selenoproteínas no câncer

Evidências têm demonstrado que distúrbios do metabolismo são comuns em células tumorais, levando ao aumento do estresse oxidativo. A elevação na produção de espécies reativas de oxigênio (EROs) associada à baixa atividade antioxidante tem sido relacionada a vários tipos de câncer. O selênio, micronutriente antioxidante, pode funcionar como um agente antimutagênico, prevenindo transformações malignas de células normais. Realizou-se um levantamento bibliográfico no período 2000 a 2009 mediante consulta à base de dados PubMed (National Library of Medicine´s Medline Biomedical Literature, USA), selecionando-se 39 artigos que avaliaram a relação entre câncer, estresse oxidativo e suplementação com selênio. O efeito protetor desse mineral é especialmente associado à sua presença na glutationa peroxidase e na tioredoxina redutase, enzimas protetoras do DNA e outros componentes celulares contra o dano oxidativo causado pelas EROs. Vários estudos têm demonstrado a expressão reduzida destas enzimas em diversos tipos de câncer, principalmente quando associados a uma baixa ingestão de selênio, que pode acentuar os danos causados. A suplementação de selênio parece ocasionar redução do risco de alguns tipos de câncer diminuindo o estresse oxidativo e o dano ao DNA. No entanto, mais estudos são necessários para esclarecer as doses de selênio adequadas para cada situação (sexo, localização geográfica e tipo de câncer)