Spatio-temporal modeling of agricultural yield data with an application to pricing crop insurance contracts

This article presents a statistical model of agricultural yield data based on a set of hierarchical Bayesian models that allows joint modeling of temporal and spatial autocorrelation. This method captures a comprehensive range of the various uncertainties involved in predicting crop insurance premium rates as opposed to the more traditional ad hoc, two-stage methods that are typically based on independent estimation and prediction. A panel data set of county-average yield data was analyzed for 290 counties in the State of Parana (Brazil) for the period of 1990 through 2002. Posterior predictive criteria are used to evaluate different model specifications. This article provides substantial improvements in the statistical and actuarial methods often applied to the calculation of insurance premium rates. These improvements are especially relevant to situations where data are limited.

Parametric and nonparametric statistical modelling of crop yield: implications for pricing crop insurance contracts

This article considers alternative methods to calculate the fair premium rate of crop insurance contracts based on county yields. The premium rate was calculated using parametric and nonparametric approaches to estimate the conditional agricultural yield density. These methods were applied to a data set of county yield provided by the Statistical and Geography Brazilian Institute (IBGE), for the period of 1990 through 2002, for soybean, corn and wheat, in the State of Paran. In this article, we propose methodological alternatives to pricing crop insurance contracts resulting in more accurate premium rates in a situation of limited data.

Molecular detection of Paracoccidioides brasiliensis in road-killed wild animals

Paracoccidioides brasiliensis infections have been little studied in wild and/or domestic animals, which may represent an important indicator of the presence of the pathogen in nature. Road-killed wild animals have been used for surveillance of vectors of zoonotic pathogens and may offer new opportunities for eco-epidemiological studies of paracoccidiodomycosis (PCM). The presence of P. brasiliensis infection was evaluated by Nested-PCR in tissue samples collected from 19 road-killed animals; 3 Cavia aperea (guinea pig), 5 Cerdocyon thous (crab-eating-fox), 1 Dasypus novemcinctus (nine-banded armadillo), 1 Dasypus septemcinctus (seven-banded armadillo), 2 Didelphis albiventris (white-eared opossum), 1 Eira barbara (tayra), 2 Gallictis vittata (grison), 2 Procyon cancrivorus (raccoon) and 2 Sphiggurus spinosus (porcupine). Specific P. brasiliensis amplicons were detected in (a) several organs of the two armadillos and one guinea pig, (b) the lung and liver of the porcupine, and (c) the lungs of raccoons and grisons. P. brasiliensis infection in wild animals from endemic areas might be more common than initially postulated. Molecular techniques can be used for detecting new hosts and mapping `hot spot` areas of PCM.

Bioinformatics construction of the human cell surfaceome

Cell surface proteins are excellent targets for diagnostic and therapeutic interventions. By using bioinformatics tools, we generated a catalog of 3,702 transmembrane proteins located at the surface of human cells (human cell surfaceome). We explored the genetic diversity of the human cell surfaceome at different levels, including the distribution of polymorphisms, conservation among eukaryotic species, and patterns of gene expression. By integrating expression information from a variety of sources, we were able to identify surfaceome genes with a restricted expression in normal tissues and/or differential expression in tumors, important characteristics for putative tumor targets. A high-throughput and efficient quantitative real-time PCR approach was used to validate 593 surfaceome genes selected on the basis of their expression pattern in normal and tumor samples. A number of candidates were identified as potential diagnostic and therapeutic targets for colorectal tumors and glioblastoma. Several candidate genes were also identified as coding for cell surface cancer/testis antigens. The human cell surfaceome will serve as a reference for further studies aimed at characterizing tumor targets at the surface of human cells.

Construction and Validation of the Brazilian Questionario de Respostas Socialmente Habilidosas Segundo Relato de Professores (QRSH-PR)

Behavioral problems in preschool children are one of the most frequent motives for seeking psychological care by parents and caregivers. Instruments are considered necessary, created from a Social Skills Training theoretical-practical perspective, which may systematically assist the identification of social skills and behavioral deficits. helping professionals in the prevention and/or reduction of behavioral problems. The purpose of this study was to test the psychometric validity and reliability of an instrument for evaluation of Socially Skilled Responses. from a teacher`s perspective (QRSH-PR). For this purpose, 260 preschool children were evaluated. differentiated in subgroups without and without behavioral difficulties, based on the Child Behavior Scale (Escala de Comportamento Infantil/ECI-Professor). Studies were conducted for construct. discrimination. concurrent and predictive validity. The Cronbach Alpha was calculated to evaluate internal consistency. The obtained results pointed to positive indicators in reference to construct, discrimination, and predictive validity, and even for good internal consistency. indicating that the items consistently measure the construct of social skills, and differentiated children with and without behavioral problems. The questionnaire is considered to be gauged for evaluation of socially skilled responses from preschool children. and applicable in educational and clinical environments.