An analysis of US greenhouse gas cap-and-trade proposals using a forward-looking economic model

We develop a forward-looking version of the recursive dynamic MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, and apply it to examine the economic implications of proposals in the US Congress to limit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We find that shocks in the consumption path are smoothed out in the forward-looking model and that the lifetime welfare cost of GHG policy is lower than in the recursive model, since the forward-looking model can fully optimize over time. The forward-looking model allows us to explore issues for which it is uniquely well suited, including revenue-recycling and early action crediting. We find capital tax recycling to be more welfare-cost reducing than labor tax recycling because of its long-term effect on economic growth. Also, there are substantial incentives for early action credits; however, when spread over the full horizon of the policy they do not have a substantial effect on lifetime welfare costs.

Economic performance of Brazilian manufacturing firms: a counterfactual analysis of innovation impacts

This article assesses if innovators outperform non-innovators in Brazilian manufacturing during 1996-2002. To do so, we begin with a simple theoretical model and test the impacts of technological innovation (treatment) on innovating firms (treated) by employing propensity score matching techniques. Correcting for the survivorship bias in the period, it was verified that, on an average, the accomplishment of technological innovations produces positive and significant impacts on the employment, the net revenue, the labor productivity, the capital productivity, and market share of the firms. However, this result was not observed for the mark-up. Especially, the net revenue reflects more robustly the impacts of the innovations. Quantitatively speaking, innovating firms experienced a 10.8-12.5 percentage points (p.p. henceforth) higher growth on employment, a 18.1-21.7 p.p. higher growth on the net revenue, a 10.8-11.9 p.p. higher growth on labor productivity, a 11.8-12.0 p.p. higher growth on capital productivity, and a 19.9-24.3 p.p. higher growth on their market share, relative to the average of the non-innovating firms in the control group. It was also observed that the conjunction of product and process innovations, relative to other forms of innovation, presents the stronger impacts on the performance of Brazilian firms.

Reproductive biology of Cyrtopodium polyphyllum (Orchidaceae): a Cyrtopodiinae pollinated by deceit

The genus Cyrtopodium comprises about 42 species distributed from southern Florida to northern Argentina. Cyrtopodium polyphyllum occurs on rocks or in sandy soils, in restinga vegetation along the Brazilian coast. It flowers during the wet season and its inflorescences produce a high number of resupinate yellow flowers. Cyrtopodium polyphyllum offers no rewards to its pollinators, but mimics the yellow, reward-producing flowers of nearby growing Stigmaphyllon arenicola (oil) and Crotalaria vitellina (nectar) individuals. Several species of bee visit flowers of C. polyphyllum, but only two species of Centris (Centris tarsata and Centris labrosa) act as pollinators. Visits to flowers of C. polyphyllum were scarce and, as a consequence, low-fruit set was recorded under natural conditions. Such low-fruit production contrasts with the number of fruits each plant bears after manual pollination, suggesting deficient pollen transfer among plants. C. polyphyllum is self-compatible and has a high-fruit set in both manual self- and cross-pollinated flowers. Furthermore, fruits (2%) are formed by self-pollination assisted by rain. This facultative self-pollination mechanism is an important strategy to provide reproductive assurance to C. polyphyllum as rainfall restricts the foraging activity of its pollinating bees. Fruits derived from treatments and under natural conditions had a similar high rate of potentially viable seed. Moreover, these seeds had a low polyembryony rate, which did not exceed 5%. C. polyphyllum acts by deceit involving optical signals and exploits other yellow-flowered species within its habitat by attracting their pollinators. The low capsule production under natural conditions was expected, but its reproductive success is assured through self-pollination by rain and high seed viability.

Derivation and external validation of a simple prediction model for the diagnosis of type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in the Brazilian urban population

A risk score model was developed based in a population of 1,224 individuals from the general population without known diabetes aging 35 years or more from an urban Brazilian population sample in order to select individuals who should be screened in subsequent testing and improve the efficacy of public health assurance. External validation was performed in a second, independent, population from a different city ascertained through a similar epidemiological protocol. The risk score was developed by multiple logistic regression and model performance and cutoff values were derived from a receiver operating characteristic curve. Model`s capacity of predicting fasting blood glucose levels was tested analyzing data from a 5-year follow-up protocol conducted in the general population. Items independently and significantly associated with diabetes were age, BMI and known hypertension. Sensitivity, specificity and proportion of further testing necessary for the best cutoff value were 75.9, 66.9 and 37.2%, respectively. External validation confirmed the model`s adequacy (AUC equal to 0.72). Finally, model score was also capable of predicting fasting blood glucose progression in non-diabetic individuals in a 5-year follow-up period. In conclusion, this simple diabetes risk score was able to identify individuals with an increased likelihood of having diabetes and it can be used to stratify subpopulations in which performing of subsequent tests is necessary and probably cost-effective.

The Alzheimer`s Association external quality control program for cerebrospinal fluid biomarkers

Background: The cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers amyloid beta (A beta)-42, total-tau (T-tau), and phosphorylated-tau (P-tau) demonstrate good diagnostic accuracy for Alzheimer`s disease (AD). However, there are large variations in biomarker measurements between studies, and between and within laboratories. The Alzheimer`s Association has initiated a global quality control program to estimate and monitor variability of measurements, quantify batch-to-batch assay variations, and identify sources of variability. In this article, we present the results from the first two rounds of the program. Methods: The program is open for laboratories using commercially available kits for A beta, T-tau, or P-tau. CSF samples (aliquots of pooled CSF) are sent for analysis several times a year from the Clinical Neurochemistry Laboratory at the Molndal campus of the University of Gothenburg, Sweden. Each round consists of three quality control samples. Results: Forty laboratories participated. Twenty-six used INNOTEST enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay kits, 14 used Luminex xMAP with the INNO-BIA AlzBio3 kit (both measure A beta-(1-42), P-tau(181P), and T-tau), and 5 used Mesa Scale Discovery with the A beta triplex (A beta N-42, A beta N-40, and A beta N-38) or T-tau kits. The total coefficients of variation between the laboratories were 13% to 36%. Five laboratories analyzed the samples six times on different occasions. Within-laboratory precisions differed considerably between biomarkers within individual laboratories. Conclusions: Measurements of CSF AD biomarkers show large between-laboratory variability, likely caused by factors related to analytical procedures and the analytical kits. Standardization of laboratory procedures and efforts by kit vendors to increase kit performance might lower variability, and will likely increase the usefulness of CSF AD biomarkers. (C) 2011 The Alzheimer`s Association. All rights reserved.

Direct measurement of instantaneous source speed for a HDR brachytherapy unit using an optical fiber based detector

Purpose: Several attempts to determine the transit time of a high dose rate (HDR) brachytherapy unit have been reported in the literature with controversial results. The determination of the source speed is necessary to accurately calculate the transient dose in brachytherapy treatments. In these studies, only the average speed of the source was measured as a parameter for transit dose calculation, which does not account for the realistic movement of the source, and is therefore inaccurate for numerical simulations. The purpose of this work is to report the implementation and technical design of an optical fiber based detector to directly measure the instantaneous speed profile of a (192)Ir source in a Nucletron HDR brachytherapy unit. Methods: To accomplish this task, we have developed a setup that uses the Cerenkov light induced in optical fibers as a detection signal for the radiation source moving inside the HDR catheter. As the (192)Ir source travels between two optical fibers with known distance, the threshold of the induced signals are used to extract the transit time and thus the velocity. The high resolution of the detector enables the measurement of the transit time at short separation distance of the fibers, providing the instantaneous speed. Results: Accurate and high resolution speed profiles of the 192Ir radiation source traveling from the safe to the end of the catheter and between dwell positions are presented. The maximum and minimum velocities of the source were found to be 52.0 +/- 1.0 and 17.3 +/- 1:2 cm/s. The authors demonstrate that the radiation source follows a uniformly accelerated linear motion with acceleration of vertical bar a vertical bar = 113 cm/s(2). In addition, the authors compare the average speed measured using the optical fiber detector to those obtained in the literature, showing deviation up to 265%. Conclusions: To the best of the authors` knowledge, the authors directly measured for the first time the instantaneous speed profile of a radiation source in a HDR brachytherapy unit traveling from the unit safe to the end of the catheter and between interdwell distances. The method is feasible and accurate to implement on quality assurance tests and provides a unique database for efficient computational simulations of the transient dose. (C) 2010 American Association of Physicists in Medicine. [DOI: 10.1118/1.3483780]

In vivo dosimetry with thermoluminescent dosimeters in external photon beam radiotherapy

The ultimate check of the actual dose delivered to a patient in radiotherapy can only be achieved by using in vivo dosimetry. This work reports a pilot study to test the applicability of a thermoluminescent dosimetric system for performing in vivo entrance dose measurements in external photon beam radiotherapy. The measurements demonstrated the value of thermoluminescent dosimetry as a treatment verification method and its applicability as a part of a quality assurance program in radiotherapy. (c) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.