60 resultados para Return predictability


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Haplodiploidy results in relatedness asymmetries between colony members of highly eusocial Hymenoptera. As a consequence, queen and reproductive workers are more related to their own sons than to each other's male offspring. Kin selection theory predicts multiple optima in male parentage: either the queen or the workers should produce all the males. Nevertheless, shared male parentage is common in highly eusocial hymenopterans. An inclusive fitness model was used to analyze the effect of the number of reproductive workers on male parentage shared by the queen and laying workers by isolating the male component from an inclusive fitness equation using the equal fitness through male condition for each pairwise combination of the three female classes comprised of the queen, laying workers and non-laying workers. The main result of the theoretical analyses showed that the fraction of males produced by workers increases asymptotically with the number of laying workers at an increasingly diminishing rate, tending to an asymptotic value of 0.67. In addition, as the number of laying workers increases, the share of male parentage converges to that of non-laying workers. The diminishing return effect on male parentage share depending on the number of reproductive workers leads us to expect the number of reproductive workers to be relatively small in a stingless bee colony, even in the absence of productivity costs. The available data confirms this hypothesis, as there is an unusually small number of reproductive workers in stingless bee colonies.

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The origin of syphilis is still controversial. Different research avenues explore its fascinating history. Here we employed a new integrative approach, where paleopathology and molecular analyses are combined. As an exercise to test the validity of this approach we examined different hypotheses on the origin of syphilis and other human diseases caused by treponemes (treponematoses). Initially, we constructed a worldwide map containing all accessible reports on palaeopathological evidences of treponematoses before Columbus's return to Europe. Then, we selected the oldest ones to calibrate the time of the most recent common ancestor of Treponema pallidum subsp. pallidum, T. pallidum subsp. endemicum and T. pallidum subsp. pertenue in phylogenetic analyses with 21 genetic regions of different T. pallidum strains previously reported. Finally, we estimated the treponemes' evolutionary rate to test three scenarios: A) if treponematoses accompanied human evolution since Homo erectus; B) if venereal syphilis arose very recently from less virulent strains caught in the New World about 500 years ago, and C) if it emerged in the Americas between 16,500 and 5,000 years ago. Two of the resulting evolutionary rates were unlikely and do not explain the existent osseous evidence. Thus, treponematoses, as we know them today, did not emerge with H. erectus, nor did venereal syphilis appear only five centuries ago. However, considering 16,500 years before present (yBP) as the time of the first colonization of the Americas, and approximately 5,000 yBP as the oldest probable evidence of venereal syphilis in the world, we could not entirely reject hypothesis C. We confirm that syphilis seems to have emerged in this time span, since the resulting evolutionary rate is compatible with those observed in other bacteria. In contrast, if the claims of precolumbian venereal syphilis outside the Americas are taken into account, the place of origin remains unsolved. Finally, the endeavor of joining paleopathology and phylogenetics proved to be a fruitful and promising approach for the study of infectious diseases.

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We show a function that fits well the probability density of return times between two consecutive visits of a chaotic trajectory to finite size regions in phase space. It deviates from the exponential statistics by a small power-law term, a term that represents the deterministic manifestation of the dynamics. We also show how one can quickly and easily estimate the Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy and the short-term correlation function by realizing observations of high probable returns. Our analyses are performed numerically in the Henon map and experimentally in a Chua's circuit. Finally, we discuss how our approach can be used to treat the data coming from experimental complex systems and for technological applications. (C) 2009 American Institute of Physics. [doi: 10.1063/1.3263943]

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Chaotic dynamical systems with two or more attractors lying on invariant subspaces may, provided certain mathematical conditions are fulfilled, exhibit intermingled basins of attraction: Each basin is riddled with holes belonging to basins of the other attractors. In order to investigate the occurrence of such phenomenon in dynamical systems of ecological interest (two-species competition with extinction) we have characterized quantitatively the intermingled basins using periodic-orbit theory and scaling laws. The latter results agree with a theoretical prediction from a stochastic model, and also with an exact result for the scaling exponent we derived for the specific class of models investigated. We discuss the consequences of the scaling laws in terms of the predictability of a final state (extinction of either species) in an ecological experiment.

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We consider a polling model with multiple stations, each with Poisson arrivals and a queue of infinite capacity. The service regime is exhaustive and there is Jacksonian feedback of served customers. What is new here is that when the server comes to a station it chooses the service rate and the feedback parameters at random; these remain valid during the whole stay of the server at that station. We give criteria for recurrence, transience and existence of the sth moment of the return time to the empty state for this model. This paper generalizes the model, when only two stations accept arriving jobs, which was considered in [Ann. Appl. Probab. 17 (2007) 1447-1473]. Our results are stated in terms of Lyapunov exponents for random matrices. From the recurrence criteria it can be seen that the polling model with parameter regeneration can exhibit the unusual phenomenon of null recurrence over a thick region of parameter space.

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We prove that for any a-mixing stationary process the hitting time of any n-string A(n) converges, when suitably normalized, to an exponential law. We identify the normalization constant lambda(A(n)). A similar statement holds also for the return time. To establish this result we prove two other results of independent interest. First, we show a relation between the rescaled hitting time and the rescaled return time, generalizing a theorem of Haydn, Lacroix and Vaienti. Second, we show that for positive entropy systems, the probability of observing any n-string in n consecutive observations goes to zero as n goes to infinity. (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Soil compaction that follows the clearing of tropical forest for cattle pasture is associated with lower soil hydraulic conductivity and increased frequency and volume of overland flow. We investigated the frequency of perched water tables, overland flow and stormflow in an Amazon forest and in an adjacent 25-year-old pasture cleared from the same forest. We compared the results with the frequencies of these phenomena estimated from comparisons of rainfall intensity and soil hydraulic conductivity. The frequency of perched water tables based on rainfall intensity and soil hydraulic conductivity was expected to double in pasture compared with forest. This corresponded closely with an approximate doubling of the frequency of stormflow and overland flow in pasture. In contrast, the stormflow volume in pasture increased 17-fold. This disproportional increase of stormflow resulted from overland flow generation over large areas of pasture, while overland flow generation in the forest was spatially limited and was observed only very near the stream channel. In both catchments, stormflow was generated by saturation excess because of perched water tables and near-surface groundwater levels. Stormflow was occasionally generated in the forest by rapid return flow from macropores, while slow return flow from a continuous perched water table was more common in the pasture. These results suggest that deforestation for pasture alters fundamental mechanisms of stormflow generation and may increase runoff volumes over wide regions of Amazonia. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Nitrogen is the nutrient that is most absorbed by the corn crop, with the most complex management, and has the highest share on the cost of corn production. The objective of this work was to evaluate the economic viability of different rates and split-applications of nitrogen fertilization, as such as urea, in the corn crop in a eutrophic Red Latosol (Oxisol). The study was carried out in the Experimental Station of the Regional Pole of the Sao Paulo Northwest Agribusiness Development (APTA), in Votuporanga, State of Sao Paulo, Brazil. The experimental design was randomized complete blocks with nine treatments and four replications, consisting of five N rates: 0, 55, 95, 135 and 175 kg ha(-1), 15 kg ha-l applied in the seeding and the remainder in top dressing: 40 and 80 kg ha(-1) N at forty days after seeding (DAS), or 1/2 + 1/2 at 20 and 40 DAS; 120 kg ha-1 N split in 1/2 + 1/2 or 1/3 + 1/3 + 1/3 at 20, 40 or 60 DAS; 160 kg ha(-1) N split in 1/4 + 3/8 + 3/8 or 114 + 1/4 + 1/4 + 1/4 at 20, 40, 60 and 80 DAS. The application of 135 kg ha-l of N split in three times provided the best benefit/cost ratio. The non-application of N provided the lowest economic return, proving to be unviable.

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There is evidence that cognitions (beliefs) and mood contribute to physical disability and work status in people with chronic pain. However, most of the current evidence comes from North America and Europe. This study examined the contribution of demographic, pain and psychosocial factors to disability and work status in chronic pain patients in two matched samples from quite different countries (Australia and Brazil). Data were collected from 311 chronic pain patients in each country. The results suggest that although demographic and pain variables (especially pain levels) contribute disability, self-efficacy beliefs made a significant contribution to disability in both samples. Age and educational level also contributed to unemployment in both samples. But there were some differences, with self-efficacy and physical disability contributing to work status only in the Brazilian sample. In contrast, depression was the only psychological risk factor for unemployment in the Australian sample. Catastrophising and pain acceptance did not contribute to disability or unemployment in either sample. These findings confirm key aspects of biopsychosocial models of pain in two culturally and linguistically different chronic pain samples from different countries. They suggest that different chronic pain populations may share more similarities than differences. (C) 2008 European Federation of Chapters of the International Association for the Study of Pain. Published

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Objective: to examine how adolescent fathers experience recurring parenthood. Design: qualitative study with a social phenomenological focus. Participants: five fathers between 16 and 19 years of age, each with two children. Findings: the participants perceived themselves as mature, responsible, worried about the care and education of their children, and desiring a secure future life. These factors made them seek employment, their own home, marital stability, construction of a family and return to school. They experienced the ambivalence of desiring one reality and living another, given that, as adolescent parents, they regretted the loss of their freedom. Key conclusions: recurring parenthood in adolescence is a complex phenomenon, with many possible perceptions. The diverse experiences depend on the social context that is defined by the wishes, plans, possibilities and meanings of each distinct social class. Implications for practice: care delivery to these adolescents should consider not only theoretical and chronobiological aspects, but also the experiences of these young people and the psychosocial and cultural factors involved in their fatherhood. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Method. Participants were 18 years of age or older, who had been discharged from hospitalisation between 6 months and 1 year before the interview, or who underwent reconstructive surgery during the previous year, or who were under outpatient follow-up awaiting reconstructive surgery. Data were collected by means of semi-structured interviews. Results. Thirty-eight of the 44 participants (86.4%) reported some type of changes associated with the burn injury, the treatment, or both, regarding the following aspects: work, leisure, relationships, religious ties, educational activities and habits (smoking, using alcohol and drugs and dressing style). The data showed a statistically significant association between burns on at least one of the upper limbs (with or without hands) and changes in work. Conclusions. Some of the aspects mentioned by the participants, such as work and leisure activities, need to be further researched in order to improve our understanding of the impact that these changes causes in the person`s life.

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Purpose. This study was designed to explore the cultural meaning and dimensions of quality of life from the perspective of Brazilian burn patients. Method. A qualitative research approach was used. Nineteen burn patients and their close relatives participated in this ethnographic study. Data were collected by means of direct observation and semi-structured interviews, conducted in a hospital outpatient clinic and during visits to patients` homes. The following inter-related phases guided the analysis process: reading of the material and data reduction, data display, conclusion outlining and verification. Results. Participants reported that the quality of life is related to autonomy and the ability to work. The dimensions of quality of life included: resuming work and functional ability, body image, having leisure and interpersonal relationships. Their descriptions revealed their feelings and attitudes about resuming their previous activities and social lives, particularly concerning the work. Conclusion. For burn patients, quality of life is associated with the concept of normality, the satisfactory performance of social roles in the context of family life and the social world. The results showed the importance of the sociocultural dimension in the concept of quality of life for persons undergoing burn rehabilitation.

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This work presents an analysis of the wavelet-Galerkin method for one-dimensional elastoplastic-damage problems. Time-stepping algorithm for non-linear dynamics is presented. Numerical treatment of the constitutive models is developed by the use of return-mapping algorithm. For spacial discretization we can use wavelet-Galerkin method instead of standard finite element method. This approach allows to locate singularities. The discrete formulation developed can be applied to the simulation of one-dimensional problems for elastic-plastic-damage models. (C) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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This article discusses the main aspects of the Brazilian real estate market in order to illustrate if it would be attractive for a typical American real estate investor to buy office-building portfolios in Brazil. The article emphasizes: [i] - the regulatory frontiers, comparing investment securitization, using a typical American REIT structure, with the Brazilian solution, using the Fundo de Investimento Imobiliario - FII; [ii] - the investment quality attributes in the Brazilian market, using an office building prototype, and [iii] - the comparison of [risk vs. yield] generated by an investment in the Brazilian market, using a FII, benchmarked against an existing REIT (OFFICE SUB-SECTOR) in the USA market. We conclude that investing dollars exchanged for Reais [the Brazilian currency] in a FII with a triple A office-building portfolio in the Sao Paulo marketplace will yield an annual income and a premium return above an American REIT investment. The highly aggressive scenario, along with the strong persistent exchange rate detachment to the IGP-M variations, plus instabilities affecting the generation of income, and even if we adopt a 300-point margin for the Brazil-Risk level, demonstrates that an investment opportunity in the Brazilian market, in the segment we have analyzed, outperforms an equivalent investment in the American market.

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Many factors affect the airflow patterns, thermal comfort, contaminant removal efficiency and indoor air quality at individual workstations in office buildings. In this study, four ventilation systems were used in a test chamber designed to represent an area of a typical office building floor and reproduce the real characteristics of a modern office space. Measurements of particle concentration and thermal parameters (temperature and velocity) were carried out for each of the following types of ventilation systems: (a) conventional air distribution system with ceiling supply and return; (b) conventional air distribution system with ceiling supply and return near the floor; (c) underfloor air distribution system; and (d) split system. The measurements aimed to analyse the particle removal efficiency in the breathing zone and the impact of particle concentration on an individual at the workstation. The efficiency of the ventilation system was analysed by measuring particle size and concentration, ventilation effectiveness and the indoor/outdoor ratio. Each ventilation system showed different airflow patterns and the efficiency of each ventilation system in the removal of the particles in the breathing zone showed no correlation with particle size and the various methods of analyses used. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.