WATER RESOURCES SITUATION AT PIRACICABA, CAPIVARI AND JUNDIAI WATERSHEDS USING A DYNAMIC SYSTEMS MODEL

Using a dynamic systems model specifically developed for Piracicaba, Capivari and Jundia River Water Basins (BH-PCJ) as a tool to help to analyze water resources management alternatives for policy makers and decision takers, five simulations for 50 years timeframe were performed. The model estimates water supply and demand, as well as wastewater generation from the consumers at BH-PCJ. A run was performed using mean precipitation value constant, and keeping the actual water supply and demand rates, the business as usual scenario. Under these considerations, it is expected an increment of about similar to 76% on water demand, that similar to 39% of available water volume will come from wastewater reuse, and that waste load increases to similar to 91%. Falkenmark Index will change from 1,403 m(3) person(-1) year(-1) in 2004, to 734 m(3) P(-1) year(-1) by 2054, and the Sustainability Index from 0.44 to 0.20. Another four simulations were performed by affecting the annual precipitation by 90 and 110%; considering an ecological flow equal to 30% of the mean daily flow; and keeping the same rates for all other factors except for ecological flow and household water consumption. All of them showed a tendency to a water crisis in the near future at BH-PCJ.

The Adequacy of the Enterprise Resources Planning (ERP) Systems for the Creation of intangible Managerial Accounting Information: an exploratory study

The general objective of this work was to study the contribution of the ERP for the quality of the managerial accounting information, through the perception of managers of large sized Brazilian companies. The initial principle was that, presently, we live in an enterprise reality characterized by global and competitive worldwide scenery where the information about the enterprise performance and the evaluation of the intangible assets are necessary conditions for the survival, of the companies. The research of the exploratory type is based on a sample of 37 managers of large sized-Brazilian companies. The analysis of the data treated by means of the qualitative method showed that the great majority of the companies of the sample (86%) possess an ERP implanted. It also showed that this system is used in combination with other applicative software. The managers, in its majority, were also satisfied with the information generated in relation to the dimensions Time and Content. However, with regard to the qualitative nature of the information, the ERP made some analysis possible when the Balanced Scorecard was adopted, but information able to provide an estimate of the investments carried through in the intangible assets was not obtained. These results Suggest that in these companies ERP systems are not adequate to support strategic decisions.

Valuing water resources in developing countries: A semiparametric approach to valuation models

Valuation of projects for the preservation of water resources provides important information to policy makers and funding institutions. Standard contingent valuation models rely on distributional assumptions to provide welfare measures. Deviations from assumed and actual distribution of benefits are important when designing policies in developing countries, where inequality is a concern. This article applies semiparametric methods to obtain estimates of the benefit from a project for the preservation of an important Brazilian river basin. These estimates lead to significant differences from those obtained using the standard parametric approach.

RACE, RESOURCES, AND POLITICAL PARTICIPATION IN A BRAZILIAN CITY

Does race influence political behavior in Brazil? Using data from Belo Horizonte, Brazil, we explore whether an individual`s propensity to take part in a political association is affected by race, independent of socioeconomic position and of the availability of resources derived from this position. We found that white individuals participate more in political associations than do black individuals; however, after taking into account the differences in all types of resources, we found no difference in participation by racial groups. Nevertheless, by interacting race, skills, and income, it turns out that different racial groups use the same resources differently. A white individual`s propensity to participate politically is significantly more affected by income than a similar black individual`s propensity. Therefore, we argue that race mediates the effect of resources on political participation, which means that either different groups may use different resources or different groups can differ in how intensively they use resources.

ISPRM`S WAY FORWARD

This paper outlines approaches to developing the International Society of Physical and Rehabilitation Medicine (ISPRM) and addresses many current challenges Most importantly, these approaches provide the basis for ISPRM to develop its leadership role within the field of Physical and Rehabilitation Medicine (PRM) and in relation to the World Health Organization (WHO) and the United Nations (UN) system at large. They also address a number of specific critiques of the current situation. A positioning of ISPRM within the world architecture of the UN and WHO systems, as well as the consideration and fostering of respective emerging regional PRM societies, is central to establishing networking connections at different levels of the world society. Yearly congresses, possibly in co-operation with a regional society, based on a defined regional rotation, are suggested. Thus, frustration with the current bidding system for a biennial congress and an intermediate meeting could be overcome. Yearly congresses are also an important step towards increasing the organization`s funding base, and hence the possibility to expand the functions of ISPRM`s central office. ISPRM`s envisioned leadership role in the context of an international web of PRM journals complementing the formally defined official journal of ISPRM, regional societies and so forth, is an inclusive rather than exclusive approach that contributes to the development of PRM journals worldwide. An important prerequisite for the further development of ISPRM is the expansion and bureaucratization of its Central Office, adding professionalism and systematic allocation of resources to the strengths of the voluntary engagement of individual PRM doctors.

Education Level Explains Differences in Stroke Incidence among City Districts in Joinville, Brazil: A Three-Year Population-Based Study

Background: Current evidence suggests an inverse association between socioeconomic status and stroke incidence. Our aim was to measure the variation in incidence among different city districts (CD) and their association with socioeconomic variables. Methods: We prospectively ascertained all possible stroke cases occurring in the city of Joinville during the period 2005-2007. We determined the incidence for each of the 38 CD, age-adjusted to the population of Joinville. By linear regression analysis, we correlated incidence data with mean years of education (MYE) and mean income per month (MIPM). Results: Of the 1,734 stroke cases registered, 1,034 were first-ever strokes. In the study period, the crude incidence in Joinville was 69.5 per 100,000 (95% confidence interval, 65.3-73.9). The stroke incidence among CD ranged from 37.5 (22.2-64.6) to 151.0 per 100,000 (69.0-286.6). The stroke incidence was inversely correlated with years of education (r = -0.532; p<0.001). MYE and MIPM were strongly related (R = 0.958), resulting in exclusion of MIPM by collinearity. Conclusions: Years of education can explain a wide incidence variation among CD. These results may be useful to guide the allocation of resources in primary prevention policies. Copyright (C) 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel

A decision support system to facilitate management of patients with acute gastrointestinal bleeding

Objective: To develop a model to predict the bleeding source and identify the cohort amongst patients with acute gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) who require urgent intervention, including endoscopy. Patients with acute GIB, an unpredictable event, are most commonly evaluated and managed by non-gastroenterologists. Rapid and consistently reliable risk stratification of patients with acute GIB for urgent endoscopy may potentially improve outcomes amongst such patients by targeting scarce health-care resources to those who need it the most. Design and methods: Using ICD-9 codes for acute GIB, 189 patients with acute GIB and all. available data variables required to develop and test models were identified from a hospital medical records database. Data on 122 patients was utilized for development of the model and on 67 patients utilized to perform comparative analysis of the models. Clinical data such as presenting signs and symptoms, demographic data, presence of co-morbidities, laboratory data and corresponding endoscopic diagnosis and outcomes were collected. Clinical data and endoscopic diagnosis collected for each patient was utilized to retrospectively ascertain optimal management for each patient. Clinical presentations and corresponding treatment was utilized as training examples. Eight mathematical models including artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine (SVM), k-nearest neighbor, linear discriminant analysis (LDA), shrunken centroid (SC), random forest (RF), logistic regression, and boosting were trained and tested. The performance of these models was compared using standard statistical analysis and ROC curves. Results: Overall the random forest model best predicted the source, need for resuscitation, and disposition with accuracies of approximately 80% or higher (accuracy for endoscopy was greater than 75%). The area under ROC curve for RF was greater than 0.85, indicating excellent performance by the random forest model Conclusion: While most mathematical models are effective as a decision support system for evaluation and management of patients with acute GIB, in our testing, the RF model consistently demonstrated the best performance. Amongst patients presenting with acute GIB, mathematical models may facilitate the identification of the source of GIB, need for intervention and allow optimization of care and healthcare resource allocation; these however require further validation. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.