135 resultados para Prognostic Models
Resumo:
Background: The MASS IV-DM Trial is a large project from a single institution, the Heart Institute (InCor), University of Sao Paulo Medical School, Brazil to study ventricular function and coronary arteries in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. Methods/Design: The study will enroll 600 patients with type 2 diabetes who have angiographically normal ventricular function and coronary arteries. The goal of the MASS IV-DM Trial is to achieve a long-term evaluation of the development of coronary atherosclerosis by using angiograms and coronary-artery calcium scan by electron-beam computed tomography at baseline and after 5 years of follow-up. In addition, the incidence of major cardiovascular events, the dysfunction of various organs involved in this disease, particularly microalbuminuria and renal function, will be analyzed through clinical evaluation. In addition, an effort will be made to investigate in depth the presence of major cardiovascular risk factors, especially the biochemical profile, metabolic syndrome inflammatory activity, oxidative stress, endothelial function, prothrombotic factors, and profibrinolytic and platelet activity. An evaluation will be made of the polymorphism as a determinant of disease and its possible role in the genesis of micro- and macrovascular damage. Discussion: The MASS IV-DM trial is designed to include diabetic patients with clinically suspected myocardial ischemia in whom conventional angiography shows angiographically normal coronary arteries. The result of extensive investigation including angiographic follow-up by several methods, vascular reactivity, pro-thrombotic mechanisms, genetic and biochemical studies may facilitate the understanding of so-called micro- and macrovascular disease of DM.
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AIM: To evaluate the epidemiological, clinical, laboratory and histological variables capable of predicting the progression of hepatic structural disturbances in chronic hepatitis C patients during the time interval between two liver biopsies. METHODS: Clinical charts of 112 chronic hepatitis C patients were retrospectively analyzed, whereas liver biopsies were revised. Immunohistochemical detection of interferon receptor was based on the Envision-Peroxidase System. RESULTS: In the multivariate analysis, the variables in the age at first biopsy, ALT levels, presence of lymphoid aggregates and siderosis were the determinants of the best model for predicting the severity of the disease. The direct progression rate of hepatic structural lesions was significantly higher in untreated patients, intermediate in treated non-responders and lower in treated responders to antiviral therapy (non-treated vs responders, 0.22 +/- 0.50 vs -0.15 +/- 0.46, P = 0.0053). Immuno-expression of interferon receptor is not a relevant factor. CONCLUSION: The best predictors of the progression of fibrosis are age at the first liver biopsy, extent of ALT elevation, inflammation at liver histology and hepatic siderosis. Antiviral treatment is effective in preventing the progression of liver structural lesions in chronic hepatitis C patients. (C) 2008 WJG. All rights reserved.
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Background: Metalloproteinase 2 (MMP-2) and tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase 2 (TIMP-2) participate in the degeneration of the extracellular matrix and are associated with carcinogenesis. MMP-2 is one of the main metalloproteinases active in neoplasia and is a marker of the malignant phenotype. Since the biological behavior of medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC) varies widely, the present study was undertaken to determine if there is a correlation between the clinical evolution of MTC and the immunohistochemically detected expression of these enzymes in thyroid surgical specimens containing MTC. If so, their expression would be a novel indicator of the prognosis of MTC. Methods: Thirty-seven patients with MTC who had undergone thyroid surgery were followed for an average of 73 months. Immunohistochemical staining for metalloproteinase-related enzymes was performed in surgical paraffin blocks. The clinical status of the patients after surgery and at the end of the study period was characterized to determine correlations between these and the immunohistochemical markers. A value of p < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results: At the end of the study period, 15 patients (40.5%) were alive and without evidence of MTC, 17 (45.9%) had persistent MTC, and 5 (13.5%) had a relapse of their neoplasia. Four patients (10.8%) died during the course of the study. There was a significant correlation (p = 0.0005) between the immunohistochemical staining for MMP-2 and the clinical condition of the patients at the end of the study period, and a correlation between the state of apparent cure compared to persistence of MTC after thyroid surgery (p = 0.0207). No significant correlations were observed between either TIMP-2 expression or immune marking of metastatic lymph nodes and the clinical variables studied. Conclusion: Immunohistochemical expression of MMP-2 in thyroid surgical specimens from patients with MTC is a novel indicator of the prognosis of this cancer.
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The prognostic relevance of different molecular markers in lung cancer is a crucial issue still worth investigating, and the specimens collected and analyzed represent a valuable source of material. Cyclin-D1, c-erbB-2 and vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) have shown to be promising as prognosticators in human cancer. In this study, we sought to examine the importance of Cyclin-D1, c-erbB-2 and VEGF, and to study the quantitative relationship among these factors and disease progression in metastases vs corresponding primary cancer, and metastatic vs non metastatic cancers. Material and Methods: We used immunohistochemistry and morphometric analysis to evaluate the amount of tumour staining for Cyclin-D1, c-erbB-2 and VEGF in 52 patients with surgically excised ademocarcinoma of the lung, and the outcome for our study was survival time until death from hematogenic metastases. Results: Metastasis presented lower c-erbB-2 expression than corresponding primary cancers (p=0.02). Cyclin-D1 and VEGF expression were also lower in metastases than in corresponding primary cancers, but this difference did not achieve statistical significance. Non-metastatic cancers also presented significantly lower Cyclin-D1 and c-erbB-2 expression than metastatic cancers (p<0.01 and p<0.01, respectively). Equally significant was the difference between higher c-erbB-2 expression by metastatic cancers compared to non-metastatic cancers (p=0.02). Considering survival in Kaplan-Maier analysis, Cyclin-D1 (p=0.04), c-erbB-2 (p=0.04) and VEGF (p<0.01) were important predictors of survival in metastatic cancers.
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The progression of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is quite variable, ranging from very mild or subclinical forms (approx. 10%) to rapidly progressing and debilitating forms (10-15%). The majority of patients present with an intermediate stage with episodes of exacerbation separated by periods of relative inactivity, which evolves to progressive functional losses. To optimise the therapeutic management of early RA it is necessary to perform periodic evaluations of the clinical and laboratory test responses to the treatment instituted, as well as the parameters indicating disease prognosis. Composite measures are frequently used to evaluate the disease activity score (DAS), including the response criteria of the American College of Rheumatology (ACR), the response criteria and the DAS according to the European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) and the composite indices of disease activity (CIDsA): DAS, the index of disease activity based on 28 joints (DAS 28), the simplified disease activity index (SDAI) and the clinical disease activity index (CDAI). The evaluation of prognosis includes investigation of the absence or occurrence of disease and joint damage remission. Due to the multifaceted nature of RA, no single clinical or laboratory parameter is able to describe satisfactorily the level of inflammatory activity or the disease prognosis at any given time.
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Background: MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are short non-coding RNAs that inhibit translation of target genes by binding to their mRNAs. The expression of numerous brain-specific miRNAs with a high degree of temporal and spatial specificity suggests that miRNAs play an important role in gene regulation in health and disease. Here we investigate the time course gene expression profile of miR-1, -16, and -206 in mouse dorsal root ganglion (DRG), and spinal cord dorsal horn under inflammatory and neuropathic pain conditions as well as following acute noxious stimulation. Results: Quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction analyses showed that the mature form of miR-1, -16 and -206, is expressed in DRG and the dorsal horn of the spinal cord. Moreover, CFA-induced inflammation significantly reduced miRs-1 and -16 expression in DRG whereas miR-206 was downregulated in a time dependent manner. Conversely, in the spinal dorsal horn all three miRNAs monitored were upregulated. After sciatic nerve partial ligation, miR-1 and -206 were downregulated in DRG with no change in the spinal dorsal horn. On the other hand, axotomy increases the relative expression of miR-1, -16, and 206 in a time-dependent fashion while in the dorsal horn there was a significant downregulation of miR-1. Acute noxious stimulation with capsaicin also increased the expression of miR-1 and -16 in DRG cells but, on the other hand, in the spinal dorsal horn only a high dose of capsaicin was able to downregulate miR-206 expression. Conclusions: Our results indicate that miRNAs may participate in the regulatory mechanisms of genes associated with the pathophysiology of chronic pain as well as the nociceptive processing following acute noxious stimulation. We found substantial evidence that miRNAs are differentially regulated in DRG and the dorsal horn of the spinal cord under different pain states. Therefore, miRNA expression in the nociceptive system shows not only temporal and spatial specificity but is also stimulus-dependent.
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The TP53 tumor suppressor gene codifies a protein responsible for preventing cells with genetic damage from growing and dividing by blocking cell growth or apoptosis pathways. A common single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in TP53 codon 72 (Arg72Pro) induces a 15-fold decrease of apoptosis-inducing ability and has been associated with susceptibility to human cancers. Recently, another TP53 SNP at codon 47 (Pro47Ser) was reported to have a low apoptosis-inducing ability; however, there are no association studies between this SNP and cancer. Aiming to study the role of TP53 Pro47Ser and Arg72Pro on glioma susceptibility and oncologic prognosis of patients, we investigated the genotype distribution of these SNPs in 94 gliomas (81 astrocytomas, 8 ependymomas and 5 oligodendrogliomas) and in 100 healthy subjects by the polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism approach. Chi-square and Fisher exact test comparisons for genotype distributions and allele frequencies did not reveal any significant difference between patients and control groups. Overall and disease-free survivals were calculated by the Kaplan-Meier method, and the log-rank test was used for comparisons, but no significant statistical difference was observed between the two groups. Our data suggest that TP53 Pro47Ser and Arg72Pro SNPs are not involved either in susceptibility to developing gliomas or in patient survival, at least in the Brazilian population.
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Due to the difficulty of follow-up for long periods, information about the survival rates of malignant salivary gland tumors is deficient in the global scientific literature. This study was aimed at investigating the epidemiological profile and prognostic factors that might affect survival in patients with primary malignant salivary gland tumors in Brazil. Patients were investigated regarding histopathological subtypes, age, gender, anatomic localization, smoking and alcohol intake, tumor size, clinical stage, histological grade, recurrence, metastasis, and treatment on clinicopathological outcomes. Survival curves were generated using the Kaplan-Meier method, and both univariate and multivariate analyses were performed using the log rank test and Cox regression, respectively. A total of 63 cases were analyzed, females beingslightly predominant (50.8%), with ages ranging from 13 to 87 years. The most common diagnosis was adenoid cystic carcinoma and the most affected anatomical location was the parotid. Tumors were predominantly classified as stage I and high-grade at the diagnosis. The 5- and 10-year overall survival rates were 84.6% and 74.7%, respectively. Disease-free survival (DFS) rates were 71.6% (5 years) and 56.6% (10 years). Univariate analysis showed significant effects of tumor size and clinical stage on the DFS (P < 0.0001 for both), and Cox regression analysis confirmed clinical stage as an independent prognostic factor (P = 0.035). Our results highlight the relevance of clinical stage as an independent prognostic parameter for malignant salivary gland tumors.
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We associated clinical-pathological features of 142 OSCC with the expression pattern of GLUT1 and GLUT3 in order to estimate their prognostic value. Methods: Clinical-pathological features and overall survival data of 142 patients with Oral Squamous Cell Carcinoma (OSCC) were retrospectively reviewed from A. C. Camargo hospital records. A tissue microarray (TMA) was built for the immunohistochemical (IHC) analysis of GLUT 1 and GLUT 3. IHC results were evaluated according to the staining pattern and number of positive cells. Results: GLUT 1 was over expressed in 50.3% of OSSC cases showing membrane staining pattern. However, nuclear expression was observed in 49.7% of the analyzed cases. GLUT 3 over expression was detected in 21.1% of OSCC cases. The pattern of GLUT 1 expression showed significant association with alcohol consumption (p = 0.004). Positive cell membrane GLUT 3 protein expression was associated with advanced clinic-staging of tumours (p = 0.005) as well as with vascular embolization (p = 0.005). Positive expression of GLUT 3 was associated with unfavorable free-disease survival (p = 0.021). Conclusion: GLUT1 and GLUT3 protein expression evaluated by immunohistochemistry are, significantly, indicators of poor prognosis outcome in oral squamous cell carcinoma, probably due to the enhanced glycolytic metabolism of more aggressive neoplastic cells.
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Survival or longevity is an economically important trait in beef cattle. The main inconvenience for its inclusion in selection criteria is delayed recording of phenotypic data and the high computational demand for including survival in proportional hazard models. Thus, identification of a longevity-correlated trait that could be recorded early in life would be very useful for selection purposes. We estimated the genetic relationship of survival with productive and reproductive traits in Nellore cattle, including weaning weight (WW), post-weaning growth (PWG), muscularity (MUSC), scrotal circumference at 18 months (SC18), and heifer pregnancy (HP). Survival was measured in discrete time intervals and modeled through a sequential threshold model. Five independent bivariate Bayesian analyses were performed, accounting for cow survival and the five productive and reproductive traits. Posterior mean estimates for heritability (standard deviation in parentheses) were 0.55 (0.01) for WW, 0.25 (0.01) for PWG, 0.23 (0.01) for MUSC, and 0.48 (0.01) for SC18. The posterior mean estimates (95% confidence interval in parentheses) for the genetic correlation with survival were 0.16 (0.13-0.19), 0.30 (0.25-0.34), 0.31 (0.25-0.36), 0.07 (0.02-0.12), and 0.82 (0.78-0.86) for WW, PWG, MUSC, SC18, and HP, respectively. Based on the high genetic correlation and heritability (0.54) posterior mean estimates for HP, the expected progeny difference for HP can be used to select bulls for longevity, as well as for post-weaning gain and muscle score.
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The effect of genetic and non-genetic factors for carcass, breast meat and leg weights, and yields of a commercial broiler line were investigated using the restricted maximum likelihood method, considering four different animal models, including or excluding maternal genetic effect with covariance between direct and maternal genetic effects, and maternal permanent environmental effect. The likelihood ratio test was used to determine the most adequate model for each trait. For carcass, breast, and leg weight, and for carcass and breast yield, maternal genetic and permanent environmental effects as well as the covariance between direct and maternal genetic effects were significant. The estimates of direct and maternal heritability were 0.17 and 0.04 for carcass weight, 0.26 and 0.06 for breast weight, 0.22 and 0.02 for leg weight, 0.32 and 0.02 for carcass yield, and 0.52 and 0.04 for breast yield, respectively. For leg yield, maternal permanent environmental effect was important, in addition to direct genetic effects. For that trait, direct heritability and maternal permanent environmental variance as a proportion of the phenotypic variance were 0.43 and 0.02, respectively. The results indicate that ignoring maternal effects in the models, even though they were of small magnitude (0.02 to 0.06), tended to overestimate direct genetic variance and heritability for all traits.
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Twenty-nine canine cutaneous mast cell tumors (MCTs) were morphometrically analyzed with regard to mean nuclear area (MNA) using cytopathology smears. The results showed a correlation between MNA and survival. When graded into 2 morphometrically different groups, there were statistically significant differences among high- and low-grade MCTs, regarding both Romanowsky-type stain and hematoxylin and eosin. Cytomorphometry could also separate histologic grade II tumors with better prognosis from the more aggressive MCTs. The results indicated that nuclear morphometry on cytopathology preparations can predict the biological behavior of cutaneous MCTs in dogs in an independent manner, yielding a rapid and reproducible diagnosis, which renders the method useful for veterinary oncology.
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Creation of cold dark matter (CCDM) can macroscopically be described by a negative pressure, and, therefore, the mechanism is capable to accelerate the Universe, without the need of an additional dark energy component. In this framework, we discuss the evolution of perturbations by considering a Neo-Newtonian approach where, unlike in the standard Newtonian cosmology, the fluid pressure is taken into account even in the homogeneous and isotropic background equations (Lima, Zanchin, and Brandenberger, MNRAS 291, L1, 1997). The evolution of the density contrast is calculated in the linear approximation and compared to the one predicted by the Lambda CDM model. The difference between the CCDM and Lambda CDM predictions at the perturbative level is quantified by using three different statistical methods, namely: a simple chi(2)-analysis in the relevant space parameter, a Bayesian statistical inference, and, finally, a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. We find that under certain circumstances, the CCDM scenario analyzed here predicts an overall dynamics (including Hubble flow and matter fluctuation field) which fully recovers that of the traditional cosmic concordance model. Our basic conclusion is that such a reduction of the dark sector provides a viable alternative description to the accelerating Lambda CDM cosmology.
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Using the solutions of the gap equations of the magnetic-color-flavor-locked (MCFL) phase of paired quark matter in a magnetic field, and taking into consideration the separation between the longitudinal and transverse pressures due to the field-induced breaking of the spatial rotational symmetry, the equation of state of the MCFL phase is self-consistently determined. This result is then used to investigate the possibility of absolute stability, which turns out to require a field-dependent ""bag constant"" to hold. That is, only if the bag constant varies with the magnetic field, there exists a window in the magnetic field vs bag constant plane for absolute stability of strange matter. Implications for stellar models of magnetized (self-bound) strange stars and hybrid (MCFL core) stars are calculated and discussed.
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The mass function of cluster-size halos and their redshift distribution are computed for 12 distinct accelerating cosmological scenarios and confronted to the predictions of the conventional flat Lambda CDM model. The comparison with Lambda CDM is performed by a two-step process. First, we determine the free parameters of all models through a joint analysis involving the latest cosmological data, using supernovae type Ia, the cosmic microwave background shift parameter, and baryon acoustic oscillations. Apart from a braneworld inspired cosmology, it is found that the derived Hubble relation of the remaining models reproduces the Lambda CDM results approximately with the same degree of statistical confidence. Second, in order to attempt to distinguish the different dark energy models from the expectations of Lambda CDM, we analyze the predicted cluster-size halo redshift distribution on the basis of two future cluster surveys: (i) an X-ray survey based on the eROSITA satellite, and (ii) a Sunayev-Zeldovich survey based on the South Pole Telescope. As a result, we find that the predictions of 8 out of 12 dark energy models can be clearly distinguished from the Lambda CDM cosmology, while the predictions of 4 models are statistically equivalent to those of the Lambda CDM model, as far as the expected cluster mass function and redshift distribution are concerned. The present analysis suggests that such a technique appears to be very competitive to independent tests probing the late time evolution of the Universe and the associated dark energy effects.