26 resultados para Prior Probability
Resumo:
Our purpose was to retrospectively compare controlled ovarian stimulation(COH) in IVF cycles with administration of hCG on the day of menses (D1-hCG) with women not receiving hCG at day 1 of menses (Control). Data on maternal age, endocrine profile, amount of rFSH required, embryo characteristics, implantation and pregnancy rates were recorded for comparison between D1-hCG (n = 36) and Control (n = 64). Dose of rFSH required to accomplish COH was significantly lower in D1-hCG. Following ICSI, more top-quality embryos were available for transfer per patient in the D1-hCG and biochemical pregnancy rates per transfer were significantly higher in the D1-hCG. Significantly higher implantation and on-going pregnancy rates per embryo transfer were observed in D1-hCG (64%) compared to Control (41%). Administration of D1-hCG prior to COH reduces rFSH use and enhances oocyte developmental competence to obtain top quality embryos, and improves implantation and on-going pregnancy rates. At present it is not clear if the benefit is related to producing an embryo that more likely to implant or a more receptive uterus, or merely fortuitous and related to the relatively small power of the study.
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Objectives We evaluated demographic, clinical, and angiographic factors influencing the selection of coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery versus percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in diabetic patients with multivessel coronary artery disease (CAD) in the BARI 2D (Bypass Angioplasty Revascularization Investigation in Type 2 Diabetes) trial. Background Factors guiding selection of mode of revascularization for patients with diabetes mellitus and multivessel CAD are not clearly defined. Methods In the BARI 2D trial, the selected revascularization strategy, CABG or PCI, was based on physician discretion, declared independent of randomization to either immediate or deferred revascularization if clinically warranted. We analyzed factors favoring selection of CABG versus PCI in 1,593 diabetic patients with multivessel CAD enrolled between 2001 and 2005. Results Selection of CABG over PCI was declared in 44% of patients and was driven by angiographic factors including triple vessel disease (odds ratio [OR]: 4.43), left anterior descending stenosis >= 70% (OR: 2.86), proximal left anterior descending stenosis >= 50% (OR: 1.78), total occlusion (OR: 2.35), and multiple class C lesions (OR: 2.06) (all p < 0.005). Nonangiographic predictors of CABG included age >= 65 years (OR: 1.43, p = 0.011) and non-U.S. region (OR: 2.89, p = 0.017). Absence of prior PCI (OR: 0.45, p < 0.001) and the availability of drug-eluting stents conferred a lower probability of choosing CABG (OR: 0.60, p = 0.003). Conclusions The majority of diabetic patients with multivessel disease were selected for PCI rather than CABG. Preference for CABG over PCI was largely based on angiographic features related to the extent, location, and nature of CAD, as well as geographic, demographic, and clinical factors. (Bypass Angioplasty Revascularization Investigation in Type 2 Diabetes [BARI 2D]; NCT00006305) (J Am Coll Cardiol Intv 2009;2:384-92) (C) 2009 by the American College of Cardiology Foundation
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PURPOSE. To assess whether baseline Glaucoma Probability Score (GPS; HRT-3; Heidelberg Engineering, Dossenheim, Germany) results are predictive of progression in patients with suspected glaucoma. The GPS is a new feature of the confocal scanning laser ophthalmoscope that generates an operator-independent, three-dimensional model of the optic nerve head and gives a score for the probability that this model is consistent with glaucomatous damage. METHODS. The study included 223 patients with suspected glaucoma during an average follow-up of 63.3 months. Included subjects had a suspect optic disc appearance and/or elevated intraocular pressure, but normal visual fields. Conversion was defined as development of either repeatable abnormal visual fields or glaucomatous deterioration in the appearance of the optic disc during the study period. The association between baseline GPS and conversion was investigated by Cox regression models. RESULTS. Fifty-four (24.2%) eyes converted. In multivariate models, both higher values of GPS global and subjective stereophotograph assessment ( larger cup-disc ratio and glaucomatous grading) were predictive of conversion: adjusted hazard ratios (95% CI): 1.31 (1.15 - 1.50) per 0.1 higher global GPS, 1.34 (1.12 - 1.62) per 0.1 higher CDR, and 2.34 (1.22 - 4.47) for abnormal grading, respectively. No significant differences ( P > 0.05 for all comparisons) were found between the c-index values ( equivalent to area under ROC curve) for the multivariate models (0.732, 0.705, and 0.699, respectively). CONCLUSIONS. GPS values were predictive of conversion in our population of patients with suspected glaucoma. Further, they performed as well as subjective assessment of the optic disc. These results suggest that GPS could potentially replace stereophotograph as a tool for estimating the likelihood of conversion to glaucoma.
Resumo:
Ischemia and reperfusion injury (IRI) contributes to the development of chronic interstitial fibrosis/tubular atrophy in renal allograft patients, Cyclooxygenase (COX) 1 and 2 actively participate in acute ischemic injury by activating endothelial cells and inducing oxidative stress. Furthermore, blockade of COX I and 2 has been associated with organ improvement after ischemic damage. The aim of this study was to evaluate the role of COX I and 2 in the development of fibrosis by performing a COX I and 2 blockade immediately before IRI We subjected C57BI/6 male mice to 60 min of unilateral renal pedicle occlusion, Prior to surgery mice were either treated with indomethacin (IMT) at days -1 and 0 or were untreated. Blood and kidney samples were collected 6 wks after IRI. Kidney samples were analyzed by real-time reverse transcription-poly me rase chain reaction for expression of transforming growth factor beta (TGF-beta), monocyte chemoattractant protein 1 (MCP-1), osteopontin (OPN), tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-alpha), interleukin (IL)-1 beta, IL-10, heme oxygenose 1 (HO-1), vimentin, connective-tissue growth factor (CTGF), collagen 1, and bone morphogenic protein 7 (BMP-7), To assess tissue fibrosis we performed morphometric analyses and Sirius red staining. We also performed immunohistochemical analysis of anti-actin smooth muscle, Renal function did not significantly differ between groups. Animals pretreated with IMT showed significantly less interstitial fibrosis than nontreated animals. Gene transcript analyses showed decreased expression of TGF-beta, MCP-1,TNF-alpha, IL-1-beta, vimentin, collagen 1, CTGF and IL-10 mRNA (all P < 0.05), Moreover, HO-I mRNA was increased in animals pretreated with IMT (P < 0.05) Conversely, IMT treatment decreased osteopontin expression and enhanced BMP-7 expression, although these levels did rot reach statistical significance when compared with control expression levels, I he blockade of COX 1 and 2 resulted in less tissue fibrosis, which was associated with a decrease in proinflammatory cytokines and enhancement of the protective cellular response.
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The endocannabinoid system has become a topic of great interest in pharmacology due to its remarkable distribution in mammal organisms and capacity to play a modulatory role on several physiological systems, including modulation of immunity. Many studies have shown that administration of cannabinoids causes inhibitory effects on immune cells, including decreased proliferation and antigen-presenting cell (APC) costimulatory activity. In contrast, other groups have shown that some cannabinoids might present stimulatory actions on macrophage activity and T cell activation. Therefore, we aimed to investigate whether a treatment in vivo with a low dose of anandamide (0.1 mg/kg) immediately prior to sensitization would have an immunosuppressive or immunostimulatory effect on cell-mediated immunity (Th1 response) in mice. We report here that anandamide, prior to sensitization, was able to increase the Th1 response to ovalbumin in vivo and ex vivo. Anandamide increased delayed type hypersensitivity (DTH), splenocyte proliferation, and IFN-gamma production in a co-culture of adherent and non-adherent splenocytes. Moreover, anandamide prior to sensitization increased both the expression of DC co-stimulatory molecules (CD80/CD86) and IL-12/IL23 (p40) production ex vivo. We have also assessed direct effects of anandamide in the IFN-gamma/IL-4 balance of ConA-stimulated splenocytes in vitro. Anandamide at nanomolar concentrations increased the production of IFN-gamma, while such production decreased at micromolar range. Thus, anandamide induced both the increment of DC activation and IFN-gamma production, which are likely the mechanisms involved in the increase of Th1 response reported here. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Objectives: This study compared the reliability and fracture patterns of zirconia cores veneered with pressable porcelain submitted to either axial or off-axis sliding contact fatigue. Methods: Forty-two Y-TZP plates (12 mm x 12 mm x 0.5 mm) veneered with pressable porcelain (12 mm x 12 mm x 1.2 mm) and adhesively luted to water aged composite resin blocks (12 mm x 12 mm x 4 mm) were stored in water at least 7 days prior to testing. Profiles for step-stress fatigue (ratio 3:2:1) were determined from single load to fracture tests (n = 3). Fatigue loading was delivered on specimen either on axial (n = 18) or off-axis 30 degrees angulation (n = 18) to simulate posterior tooth cusp inclination creating a 0.7 mm slide. Single load and fatigue tests utilized a 6.25 mm diameter WC indenter. Specimens were inspected by means of polarized-light microscope and SEM. Use level probability Weibull curves were plotted with 2-sided 90% confidence bounds (CB) and reliability for missions of 50,000 cycles at 200 N (90% CB) were calculated. Results: The calculated Weibull Beta was 3.34 and 2.47 for axial and off-axis groups, respectively, indicating that fatigue accelerated failure in both loading modes. The reliability data for a mission of 50,000 cycles at 200 N load with 90% CB indicates no difference between loading groups. Deep penetrating cone cracks reaching the core-veneer interface were observed in both groups. Partial cones due to the sliding component were observed along with the cone cracking for the off-axis group. No Y-TZP core fractures were observed. Conclusions: Reliability was not significantly different between axial and off-axis mouth-motion fatigued pressed over Y-TZP cores, but incorporation of sliding resulted in more aggressive damage on the veneer. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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In this paper, we consider the problem of estimating the number of times an air quality standard is exceeded in a given period of time. A non-homogeneous Poisson model is proposed to analyse this issue. The rate at which the Poisson events occur is given by a rate function lambda(t), t >= 0. This rate function also depends on some parameters that need to be estimated. Two forms of lambda(t), t >= 0 are considered. One of them is of the Weibull form and the other is of the exponentiated-Weibull form. The parameters estimation is made using a Bayesian formulation based on the Gibbs sampling algorithm. The assignation of the prior distributions for the parameters is made in two stages. In the first stage, non-informative prior distributions are considered. Using the information provided by the first stage, more informative prior distributions are used in the second one. The theoretical development is applied to data provided by the monitoring network of Mexico City. The rate function that best fit the data varies according to the region of the city and/or threshold that is considered. In some cases the best fit is the Weibull form and in other cases the best option is the exponentiated-Weibull. Copyright (C) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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P>In the context of either Bayesian or classical sensitivity analyses of over-parametrized models for incomplete categorical data, it is well known that prior-dependence on posterior inferences of nonidentifiable parameters or that too parsimonious over-parametrized models may lead to erroneous conclusions. Nevertheless, some authors either pay no attention to which parameters are nonidentifiable or do not appropriately account for possible prior-dependence. We review the literature on this topic and consider simple examples to emphasize that in both inferential frameworks, the subjective components can influence results in nontrivial ways, irrespectively of the sample size. Specifically, we show that prior distributions commonly regarded as slightly informative or noninformative may actually be too informative for nonidentifiable parameters, and that the choice of over-parametrized models may drastically impact the results, suggesting that a careful examination of their effects should be considered before drawing conclusions.Resume Que ce soit dans un cadre Bayesien ou classique, il est bien connu que la surparametrisation, dans les modeles pour donnees categorielles incompletes, peut conduire a des conclusions erronees. Cependant, certains auteurs persistent a negliger les problemes lies a la presence de parametres non identifies. Nous passons en revue la litterature dans ce domaine, et considerons quelques exemples surparametres simples dans lesquels les elements subjectifs influencent de facon non negligeable les resultats, independamment de la taille des echantillons. Plus precisement, nous montrons comment des a priori consideres comme peu ou non-informatifs peuvent se reveler extremement informatifs en ce qui concerne les parametres non identifies, et que le recours a des modeles surparametres peut avoir sur les conclusions finales un impact considerable. Ceci suggere un examen tres attentif de l`impact potentiel des a priori.
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The main object of this paper is to discuss the Bayes estimation of the regression coefficients in the elliptically distributed simple regression model with measurement errors. The posterior distribution for the line parameters is obtained in a closed form, considering the following: the ratio of the error variances is known, informative prior distribution for the error variance, and non-informative prior distributions for the regression coefficients and for the incidental parameters. We proved that the posterior distribution of the regression coefficients has at most two real modes. Situations with a single mode are more likely than those with two modes, especially in large samples. The precision of the modal estimators is studied by deriving the Hessian matrix, which although complicated can be computed numerically. The posterior mean is estimated by using the Gibbs sampling algorithm and approximations by normal distributions. The results are applied to a real data set and connections with results in the literature are reported. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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This work presents a Bayesian semiparametric approach for dealing with regression models where the covariate is measured with error. Given that (1) the error normality assumption is very restrictive, and (2) assuming a specific elliptical distribution for errors (Student-t for example), may be somewhat presumptuous; there is need for more flexible methods, in terms of assuming only symmetry of errors (admitting unknown kurtosis). In this sense, the main advantage of this extended Bayesian approach is the possibility of considering generalizations of the elliptical family of models by using Dirichlet process priors in dependent and independent situations. Conditional posterior distributions are implemented, allowing the use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), to generate the posterior distributions. An interesting result shown is that the Dirichlet process prior is not updated in the case of the dependent elliptical model. Furthermore, an analysis of a real data set is reported to illustrate the usefulness of our approach, in dealing with outliers. Finally, semiparametric proposed models and parametric normal model are compared, graphically with the posterior distribution density of the coefficients. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
A high incidence of waterborne diseases is observed worldwide and in order to address contamination problems prior to an outbreak, quantitative microbial risk assessment is a useful tool for estimating the risk of infection. The objective of this paper was to assess the probability of Giardia infection from consuming water from shallow wells in a peri-urban area. Giardia has been described as an important waterborne pathogen and reported in several water sources, including ground waters. Sixteen water samples were collected and examined according to the US EPA (1623, 2005). A Monte Carlo method was used to address the potential risk as described by the exponential dose response model. Giardia cysts occurred in 62.5% of the samples (0.1-36.1 cysts/l). A median risk of 10-1 for the population was estimated and the adult ingestion was the highest risk driver. This study illustrates the vulnerability of shallow well water supply systems in peri-urban areas.