The generalized log-gamma mixture model with covariates: local influence and residual analysis

In a sample of censored survival times, the presence of an immune proportion of individuals who are not subject to death, failure or relapse, may be indicated by a relatively high number of individuals with large censored survival times. In this paper the generalized log-gamma model is modified for the possibility that long-term survivors may be present in the data. The model attempts to separately estimate the effects of covariates on the surviving fraction, that is, the proportion of the population for which the event never occurs. The logistic function is used for the regression model of the surviving fraction. Inference for the model parameters is considered via maximum likelihood. Some influence methods, such as the local influence and total local influence of an individual are derived, analyzed and discussed. Finally, a data set from the medical area is analyzed under the log-gamma generalized mixture model. A residual analysis is performed in order to select an appropriate model.

Comparative study of pressure- and volume-controlled ventilation on pulse pressure variation in a model of hypovolaemia in rabbits

Background and objective: Dynamic indices represented by systolic pressure variation and pulse pressure variation have been demonstrated to be more accurate than filling pressures in predicting fluid responsiveness. However, the literature is scarce concerning the impact of different ventilatory modes on these indices. We hypothesized that systolic pressure variation or pulse pressure variation could be affected differently by volume-controlled ventilation and pressure-controlled ventilation in an experimental model, during normovolaemia and hypovolaemia. Method: Thirty-two anaesthetized rabbits were randomly allocated into four groups according to ventilatory modality and volaemic status where G1-ConPCV was the pressure-controlled ventilation control group, G2-HemPCV was associated with haemorrhage, G3-ConVCV was the volume-controlled ventilation control group and G4-HemVCV was associated with haemorrhage. In the haemorrhage groups, blood was removed in two stages: 15% of the estimated blood volume withdrawal at M1, and, 30 min later, an additional 15% at M2. Data were submitted to analysis of variance for repeated measures; a value of P < 0.05 was considered to be statistically significant. Results: At MO (baseline), no significant differences were observed among groups. At M1, dynamic parameters differed significantly among the control and hypovolaemic groups (P < 0.05) but not between ventilation modes. However, when 30% of the estimated blood volume was removed (M2), dynamic parameters became significantly higher in animals under volume-controlled ventilation when compared with those under pressure-controlled ventilation. Conclusions: Under normovolaemia and moderate haemorrhage, dynamic parameters were not influenced by either ventilatory modalities. However, in the second stage of haemorrhage (30%), animals in volume-controlled ventilation presented higher values of systolic pressure variation and pulse pressure variation when compared with those submitted to pressure-controlled ventilation.

STUDY OF THE EQUATORIAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIXING LAYER USING A ONE-DIMENSIONAL TURBULENCE MODEL

The General Ocean Turbulence Model (GOTM) is applied to the diagnostic turbulence field of the mixing layer (ML) over the equatorial region of the Atlantic Ocean. Two situations were investigated: rainy and dry seasons, defined, respectively, by the presence of the intertropical convergence zone and by its northward displacement. Simulations were carried out using data from a PIRATA buoy located on the equator at 23 degrees W to compute surface turbulent fluxes and from the NASA/GEWEX Surface Radiation Budget Project to close the surface radiation balance. A data assimilation scheme was used as a surrogate for the physical effects not present in the one-dimensional model. In the rainy season, results show that the ML is shallower due to the weaker surface stress and stronger stable stratification; the maximum ML depth reached during this season is around 15 m, with an averaged diurnal variation of 7 m depth. In the dry season, the stronger surface stress and the enhanced surface heat balance components enable higher mechanical production of turbulent kinetic energy and, at night, the buoyancy acts also enhancing turbulence in the first meters of depth, characterizing a deeper ML, reaching around 60 m and presenting an average diurnal variation of 30 m.

The Evolution of Modularity in the Mammalian Skull I: Morphological Integration Patterns and Magnitudes

Morphological integration refers to the modular structuring of inter-trait relationships in an organism, which could bias the direction and rate of morphological change, either constraining or facilitating evolution along certain dimensions of the morphospace. Therefore, the description of patterns and magnitudes of morphological integration and the analysis of their evolutionary consequences are central to understand the evolution of complex traits. Here we analyze morphological integration in the skull of several mammalian orders, addressing the following questions: are there common patterns of inter-trait relationships? Are these patterns compatible with hypotheses based on shared development and function? Do morphological integration patterns and magnitudes vary in the same way across groups? We digitized more than 3,500 specimens spanning 15 mammalian orders, estimated the correspondent pooled within-group correlation and variance/covariance matrices for 35 skull traits and compared those matrices among the orders. We also compared observed patterns of integration to theoretical expectations based on common development and function. Our results point to a largely shared pattern of inter-trait correlations, implying that mammalian skull diversity has been produced upon a common covariance structure that remained similar for at least 65 million years. Comparisons with a rodent genetic variance/covariance matrix suggest that this broad similarity extends also to the genetic factors underlying phenotypic variation. In contrast to the relative constancy of inter-trait correlation/covariance patterns, magnitudes varied markedly across groups. Several morphological modules hypothesized from shared development and function were detected in the mammalian taxa studied. Our data provide evidence that mammalian skull evolution can be viewed as a history of inter-module parcellation, with the modules themselves being more clearly marked in those lineages with lower overall magnitude of integration. The implication of these findings is that the main evolutionary trend in the mammalian skull was one of decreasing the constraints to evolution by promoting a more modular architecture.

Enhanced aeroelastic energy harvesting by exploiting combined nonlinearities: theory and experiment

Converting aeroelastic vibrations into electricity for low power generation has received growing attention over the past few years. In addition to potential applications for aerospace structures, the goal is to develop alternative and scalable configurations for wind energy harvesting to use in wireless electronic systems. This paper presents modeling and experiments of aeroelastic energy harvesting using piezoelectric transduction with a focus on exploiting combined nonlinearities. An airfoil with plunge and pitch degrees of freedom (DOF) is investigated. Piezoelectric coupling is introduced to the plunge DOF while nonlinearities are introduced through the pitch DOF. A state-space model is presented and employed for the simulations of the piezoaeroelastic generator. A two-state approximation to Theodorsen aerodynamics is used in order to determine the unsteady aerodynamic loads. Three case studies are presented. First the interaction between piezoelectric power generation and linear aeroelastic behavior of a typical section is investigated for a set of resistive loads. Model predictions are compared to experimental data obtained from the wind tunnel tests at the flutter boundary. In the second case study, free play nonlinearity is added to the pitch DOF and it is shown that nonlinear limit-cycle oscillations can be obtained not only above but also below the linear flutter speed. The experimental results are successfully predicted by the model simulations. Finally, the combination of cubic hardening stiffness and free play nonlinearities is considered in the pitch DOF. The nonlinear piezoaeroelastic response is investigated for different values of the nonlinear-to-linear stiffness ratio. The free play nonlinearity reduces the cut-in speed while the hardening stiffness helps in obtaining persistent oscillations of acceptable amplitude over a wider range of airflow speeds. Such nonlinearities can be introduced to aeroelastic energy harvesters (exploiting piezoelectric or other transduction mechanisms) for performance enhancement.

Planning and operation of large-scale water distribution systems with preemptive priorities

This paper describes the development of an optimization model for the management and operation of a large-scale, multireservoir water supply distribution system with preemptive priorities. The model considers multiobjectives and hedging rules. During periods of drought, when water supply is insufficient to meet the planned demand, appropriate rationing factors are applied to reduce water supply. In this paper, a water distribution system is formulated as a network and solved by the GAMS modeling system for mathematical programming and optimization. A user-friendly interface is developed to facilitate the manipulation of data and to generate graphs and tables for decision makers. The optimization model and its interface form a decision support system (DSS), which can be used to configure a water distribution system to facilitate capacity expansion and reliability studies. Several examples are presented to demonstrate the utility and versatility of the developed DSS under different supply and demand scenarios, including applications to one of the largest water supply systems in the world, the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area Water Supply Distribution System in Brazil.

Parameterization and Evaluation of Predictions of DSSAT/CANEGRO for Brazilian Sugarcane

The DSSAT/CANEGRO model was parameterized and its predictions evaluated using data from five sugarcane (Sacchetrum spp.) experiments conducted in southern Brazil. The data used are from two of the most important Brazilian cultivars. Some parameters whose values were either directly measured or considered to be well known were not adjusted. Ten of the 20 parameters were optimized using a Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) algorithm using the leave-one-out cross-validation technique. Model predictions were evaluated using measured data of leaf area index (LA!), stalk and aerial dry mass, sucrose content, and soil water content, using bias, root mean squared error (RMSE), modeling efficiency (Eff), correlation coefficient, and agreement index. The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT)/CANEGRO model simulated the sugarcane crop in southern Brazil well, using the parameterization reported here. The soil water content predictions were better for rainfed (mean RMSE = 0.122mm) than for irrigated treatment (mean RMSE = 0.214mm). Predictions were best for aerial dry mass (Eff = 0.850), followed by stalk dry mass (Eff = 0.765) and then sucrose mass (Eff = 0.170). Number of green leaves showed the worst fit (Eff = -2.300). The cross-validation technique permits using multiple datasets that would have limited use if used independently because of the heterogeneity of measures and measurement strategies.

Physical function interfering with pain and symptoms in fibromyalgia patients

Objectives. The aim of this study was to assess the relationship between variables of physical assessment - muscular strength, flexibility and dynamic balance - with pain, pain threshold, and fibromyalgia symptoms (FM). Methods. Our sample consists of 55 women, with age ranging from 30 to 55 years (mean of 46.5, (standard deviation, SD=6.6)), mean body mass index (BMI) of 28.7(3.8) and diagnosed for FM according to the American College of Rheumatology criteria. Pain intensity was measured using a visual analogue scale (VAS) and pain threshold (PT) using Fisher`s dolorimeter. FM symptoms were assessed by the Fibromyalgia Impact Questionnaire (FIQ); flexibility by the third finger to floor test (3FF); the muscular strength index (MSI) by the maximum volunteer isometric contraction at flexion and extension of right knee and elbow using a force transducer, dynamic balance by the time to get up and go (TUG) test and the functional reach test (FRT). Data were analysed using Pearson`s correlation, as well as simple and multivariate regression tests, with significance level of 5%. Results. PT and FIQ were weakly but significantly correlated with the TUG, MSI and 3FF as well as VAS with the TUG and MSI (p<0.05). VAS, PT and FIQ was not correlated with FRT. Simple regression suggests that, alone, TUG, FR, MSI and 3FF are low predictors of VAS, PT and FIQ. For the VAS, the best predictive model includes TUG and MSI, explaining 12.6% of pain. variability. For TP and total symptoms, as obtained by the FIQ, most predictive model includes 3FF and MSI, which respectively respond by 30% and 21% of the variability. Conclusion. Muscular strength, flexibility and balance are associated with pain, pain threshold, and symptoms in FM patients.

Total Exposure and Exposure Rate Effects for Alcohol and Smoking and Risk of Head and Neck Cancer: A Pooled Analysis of Case-Control Studies

Although cigarette smoking and alcohol consumption increase risk for head and neck cancers, there have been few attempts to model risks quantitatively and to formally evaluate cancer site-specific risks. The authors pooled data from 15 case-control studies and modeled the excess odds ratio (EOR) to assess risk by total exposure (pack-years and drink-years) and its modification by exposure rate (cigarettes/day and drinks/day). The smoking analysis included 1,761 laryngeal, 2,453 pharyngeal, and 1,990 oral cavity cancers, and the alcohol analysis included 2,551 laryngeal, 3,693 pharyngeal, and 3,116 oval cavity cancers, with over 8,000 controls. Above 15 cigarettes/day, the EOR/pack-year decreased with increasing cigarettes/day, suggesting that greater cigarettes/day for a shorter duration was less deleterious than fewer cigarettes/day for a longer duration. Estimates of EOR/pack-year were homogeneous across sites, while the effects of cigarettes/day varied, indicating that the greater laryngeal cancer risk derived from differential cigarettes/day effects and not pack-years. EOR/drink-year estimates increased through 10 drinks/day, suggesting that greater drinks/day for a shorter duration was more deleterious than fewer drinks/day for a longer duration. Above 10 drinks/day, data were limited. EOR/drink-year estimates varied by site, while drinks/day effects were homogeneous, indicating that the greater pharyngeal/oral cavity cancer risk with alcohol consumption derived from the differential effects of drink-years and not drinks/day.