Spatial aspects of trade liberalization in Colombia: A general equilibrium approach

This paper offers some preliminary steps in the marriage of some of the theoretical foundations of new economic geography with spatial computable general equilibrium models. Modelling the spatial economy of Colombia using the traditional assumptions of computable general equilibrium (CGE) models makes little sense when one territorial unit, Bogota, accounts for over one quarter of GDP and where transportation costs are high and accessibility low compared to European or North American standards. Hence, handling market imperfections becomes imperative as does the need to address internal spatial issues from the perspective of Colombia`s increasing involvement with external markets. The paper builds on the Centro de Estudios de Economia Regional (CEER) model, a spatial CGE model of the Colombian economy; non-constant returns and non-iceberg transportation costs are introduced and some simulation exercises carried out. The results confirm the asymmetric impacts that trade liberalization has on a spatial economy in which one region, Bogota, is able to more fully exploit scale economies vis--vis the rest of Colombia. The analysis also reveals the importance of different hypotheses on factor mobility and the role of price effects to better understand the consequences of trade opening in a developing economy.

Rosuvastatin and Cardiovascular Events in Patients Undergoing Hemodialysis

Background Statins reduce the incidence of cardiovascular events in patients at high cardiovascular risk. However, a benefit of statins in such patients who are undergoing hemodialysis has not been proved. Methods We conducted an international, multicenter, randomized, double-blind, prospective trial involving 2776 patients, 50 to 80 years of age, who were undergoing maintenance hemodialysis. We randomly assigned patients to receive rosuvastatin, 10 mg daily, or placebo. The combined primary end point was death from cardiovascular causes, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or nonfatal stroke. Secondary end points included death from all causes and individual cardiac and vascular events. Results After 3 months, the mean reduction in low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol levels was 43% in patients receiving rosuvastatin, from a mean baseline level of 100 mg per deciliter (2.6 mmol per liter). During a median follow-up period of 3.8 years, 396 patients in the rosuvastatin group and 408 patients in the placebo group reached the primary end point (9.2 and 9.5 events per 100 patient-years, respectively; hazard ratio for the combined end point in the rosuvastatin group vs. the placebo group, 0.96; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.84 to 1.11; P = 0.59). Rosuvastatin had no effect on individual components of the primary end point. There was also no significant effect on all-cause mortality (13.5 vs. 14.0 events per 100 patient-years; hazard ratio, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.86 to 1.07; P = 0.51). Conclusions In patients undergoing hemodialysis, the initiation of treatment with rosuvastatin lowered the LDL cholesterol level but had no significant effect on the composite primary end point of death from cardiovascular causes, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or nonfatal stroke. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00240331.)

Diagnostic Performance of Coronary Angiography by 64-Row CT

Background: The accuracy of multidetector computed tomographic (CT) angiography involving 64 detectors has not been well established. Methods: We conducted a multicenter study to examine the accuracy of 64-row, 0.5-mm multidetector CT angiography as compared with conventional coronary angiography in patients with suspected coronary artery disease. Nine centers enrolled patients who underwent calcium scoring and multidetector CT angiography before conventional coronary angiography. In 291 patients with calcium scores of 600 or less, segments 1.5 mm or more in diameter were analyzed by means of CT and conventional angiography at independent core laboratories. Stenoses of 50% or more were considered obstructive. The area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve (AUC) was used to evaluate diagnostic accuracy relative to that of conventional angiography and subsequent revascularization status, whereas disease severity was assessed with the use of the modified Duke Coronary Artery Disease Index. Results: A total of 56% of patients had obstructive coronary artery disease. The patient-based diagnostic accuracy of quantitative CT angiography for detecting or ruling out stenoses of 50% or more according to conventional angiography revealed an AUC of 0.93 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.90 to 0.96), with a sensitivity of 85% (95% CI, 79 to 90), a specificity of 90% (95% CI, 83 to 94), a positive predictive value of 91% (95% CI, 86 to 95), and a negative predictive value of 83% (95% CI, 75 to 89). CT angiography was similar to conventional angiography in its ability to identify patients who subsequently underwent revascularization: the AUC was 0.84 (95% CI, 0.79 to 0.88) for multidetector CT angiography and 0.82 (95% CI, 0.77 to 0.86) for conventional angiography. A per-vessel analysis of 866 vessels yielded an AUC of 0.91 (95% CI, 0.88 to 0.93). Disease severity ascertained by CT and conventional angiography was well correlated (r=0.81; 95% CI, 0.76 to 0.84). Two patients had important reactions to contrast medium after CT angiography. Conclusions: Multidetector CT angiography accurately identifies the presence and severity of obstructive coronary artery disease and subsequent revascularization in symptomatic patients. The negative and positive predictive values indicate that multidetector CT angiography cannot replace conventional coronary angiography at present. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00738218.).

A GPR54-activating mutation in a patient with central precocious puberty

Gonadotropin-dependent, or central, precocious puberty is caused by early maturation of the hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal axis. In girls, this condition is most often idiopathic. Recently, a G protein-coupled receptor, GPR54, and its ligand, kisspeptin, were described as an excitatory neuroregulator system for the secretion of gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH). In this study, we have identified an autosomal dominant GPR54 mutation - the substitution of proline for arginine at codon 386 (Arg386Pro) - in an adopted girl with idiopathic central precocious puberty (whose biologic family was not available for genetic studies). In vitro studies have shown that this mutation leads to prolonged activation of intracellular signaling pathways in response to kisspeptin. The Arg386Pro mutant appears to be associated with central precocious puberty.

Comparison of Quantitative Imaging Devices and Subjective Optic Nerve Head Assessment by General Ophthalmologists to Differentiate Normal From Glaucomatous Eyes

Purpose: To compare the ability of Subjective assessment of optic nerve head (ONH) and retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) by general ophthalmologists and by a glaucoma expert with objective measurements by optical coherence tomography (Stratus OCT, Carl Zeiss Meditec Inc), confocal scanning laser ophthalmoscope (HRT III; Heidelberg Engineering, Heidelberg. Germany), and scanning laser polarimetry (GDx enhanced corneal compensation; Carl Zeiss Meditec Inc, Dublin, CA) in discriminating glaucomatous and normal eyes. Methods: Sixty-one glaucomatous and 57 normal eyes or 118 subjects Were included in the study. Three independent general ophthalmologists and I glaucoma expert evaluated ONH stereo-photographs. Receiver operating characteristic curves were constructed for each imaging technique and sensitivity at fixed specificity was estimated. Comparisons or areas under these curves (aROCs) and agreement (k) were determined between stereophoto grading and best parameter from each technique. Results: Best parameter from each technique showed larger aROC (Stratus OCT RNFL 0.92; Stratus OCT ONH vertical integrated area = 0.86; Stratus OCT macular thickness = 0.82; GDx enhanced corneal compensation = 0.91, HRT3 global cup-to-disc ratio = 0.83; HRT3 glaucoma probability score numeric area score 0.83) compared with stereophotograph grading by general ophthalmologists (0.80) in separating glaucomatous and normal eyes. Glaucoma expert stereophoto grading provided equal or larger aROC (0.92) than best parameter of each computerized imaging device. Stereophoto evaluated by a glaucoma expert showed better agreement with best parameter of each quantitative imaging technique in classifying eyes either as glaucomatous or normal compared with stereophoto grading by general ophthalmologists, The combination Of Subjective assessment of the optic disc by general ophthalmologists with RNFL objective parameters improved identification of glaucoma patients in a larger proportion than the combination of these objective parameters with Subjective assessment of the optic disc by a glaucoma expert (29.5% vs. 19.7%, respectively). Conclusions: Diagnostic ability of all imaging techniques showed better performance than subjective assessment of the ONH by general ophthalmologists, but not by It glaucoma expert, Objective RNFL measurements may provide improvement in glaucoma detection when combined with subjective assessment of the optic disc by general ophthalmologists or by a glaucoma expert.

PROFILE OF PUBLISHED PAPERS ON ORTHOPEDICS IN GENERAL JOURNALS

The authors study the profile of published papers on orthopedics in general journals, not specific to orthopedics, registered in PUBMED, in a period of two years. There were selected 67 papers with heterogeneous distribution among the magazines studied. It was found the presence of 26.47% of articles with interventional design and 38% with observational one. The data are discussed

IRF8 Mutations and Human Dendritic-Cell Immunodeficiency

BACKGROUND The genetic analysis of human primary immunodeficiencies has defined the contribution of specific cell populations and molecular pathways in the host defense against infection. Disseminated infection caused by bacille Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccines is an early manifestation of primary immunodeficiencies, such as severe combined immunodeficiency. In many affected persons, the cause of disseminated BCG disease is unexplained. METHODS We evaluated an infant presenting with features of severe immunodeficiency, including early-onset disseminated BCG disease, who required hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation. We also studied two otherwise healthy subjects with a history of disseminated but curable BCG disease in childhood. We characterized the monocyte and dendritic-cell compartments in these three subjects and sequenced candidate genes in which mutations could plausibly confer susceptibility to BCG disease. RESULTS We detected two distinct disease-causing mutations affecting interferon regulatory factor 8 (IRF8). Both K108E and T80A mutations impair IRF8 transcriptional activity by disrupting the interaction between IRF8 and DNA. The K108E variant was associated with an autosomal recessive severe immunodeficiency with a complete lack of circulating monocytes and dendritic cells. The T80A variant was associated with an autosomal dominant, milder immunodeficiency and a selective depletion of CD11c+CD1c+ circulating dendritic cells. CONCLUSIONS These findings define a class of human primary immunodeficiencies that affect the differentiation of mononuclear phagocytes. They also show that human IRF8 is critical for the development of monocytes and dendritic cells and for antimycobacterial immunity. (Funded by the Medical Research Council and others.)

Preexposure Chemoprophylaxis for HIV Prevention in Men Who Have Sex with Men.

Background: Antiretroviral chemoprophylaxis before exposure is a promising approach for the prevention of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) acquisition. Methods: We randomly assigned 2499 HIV-seronegative men or transgender women who have sex with men to receive a combination of two oral antiretroviral drugs, emtricitabine and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (FTC-TDF), or placebo once daily. All subjects received HIV testing, risk-reduction counseling, condoms, and management of sexually transmitted infections. Results: The study subjects were followed for 3324 person-years (median, 1.2 years; maximum, 2.8 years). Of these subjects, 10 were found to have been infected with HIV at enrollment, and 100 became infected during follow-up (36 in the FTC-TDF group and 64 in the placebo group), indicating a 44% reduction in the incidence of HIV (95% confidence interval, 15 to 63; P=0.005). In the FTC-TDF group, the study drug was detected in 22 of 43 of seronegative subjects (51%) and in 3 of 34 HIV-infected subjects (9%) (P<0.001). Nausea was reported more frequently during the first 4 weeks in the FTC-TDF group than in the placebo group (P<0.001). The two groups had similar rates of serious adverse events (P=0.57). Conclusions: Oral FTC-TDF provided protection against the acquisition of HIV infection among the subjects. Detectable blood levels strongly correlated with the prophylactic effect. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00458393.) N Engl J Med 2010;363:2587-99.

APOE polymorphism is associated with lipid profile, but not with arterial stiffness in the general population

Background: Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are the main cause of death and disability in developed countries. In most cases, the progress of CVD is influenced by environmental factors and multifactorial inheritance. The purpose of this study was to investigate the association between APOE genotypes, cardiovascular risk factors, and a noninvasive measure of arterial stiffness in the Brazilian population. Methods: A total of 1493 urban Brazilian individuals were randomly selected from the general population of the Vitoria City Metropolitan area. Genetic analysis of the APOE polymorphism was conducted by PCR-RFLP and pulse wave velocity analyzed with a noninvasive automatic device. Results: Age, gender, body mass index, triglycerides, creatinine, uric acid, blood glucose, blood pressure phenotypes were no different between epsilon 2, epsilon 3 and epsilon 4 alleles. The epsilon 4 allele was associated with higher total-cholesterol (p < 0.001), LDL-C (p < 0.001), total-cholesterol/HDL-C ratio (p < 0.001), LDL/HDL-C ratio (p < 0.001), lower HDL-C values (p < 0.001) and higher risk to obesity (OR = 1.358, 95% CI = 1.019-1.811) and hyperuricemia (OR = 1.748, 95% CI = 1.170-2.611). Nevertheless, pulse wave velocity (p = 0.66) measures were no different between genotypes. The significant association between APOE genotypes and lipid levels persisted after a 5-year follow-up interval, but no interaction between time and genotype was observed for lipids longitudinal behavior. Conclusion: The epsilon 4 allele of the APOE gene is associated with a worse lipid profile in the Brazilian urban population. In our relatively young sample, the observed effect of APOE genotype on lipid levels was not translated into significant effects in arterial wall stiffness.

Screening for serious mental illness in the general population with the K6 screening scale: results from the WHO World Mental Health (WMH) survey initiative

Data are reported on the background and performance of the K6 screening scale for serious mental illness (SMI) in the World Health Organization (WHO) World Mental Health (WMH) surveys. The K6 is a six-item scale developed to provide a brief valid screen for Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders 4th edition (DSM-IV) SMI based on the criteria in the US ADAMHA Reorganization Act. Although methodological studies have documented good K6 validity in a number of countries, optimal scoring rules have never been proposed. Such rules are presented here based on analysis of K6 data in nationally or regionally representative WMH surveys in 14 countries (combined N = 41,770 respondents). Twelve-month prevalence of DSM-IV SMI was assessed with the fully-structured WHO Composite International Diagnostic Interview. Nested logistic regression analysis was used to generate estimates of the predicted probability of SMI for each respondent from K6 scores, taking into consideration the possibility of variable concordance as a function of respondent age, gender, education, and country. Concordance, assessed by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, was generally substantial (median 0.83; range 0.76-0.89; inter-quartile range 0.81-0.85). Based on this result, optimal scaling rules are presented for use by investigators working with the K6 scale in the countries studied. Copyright (c) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A general hazard model for lifetime data in the presence of cure rate

Historically, the cure rate model has been used for modeling time-to-event data within which a significant proportion of patients are assumed to be cured of illnesses, including breast cancer, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, leukemia, prostate cancer, melanoma, and head and neck cancer. Perhaps the most popular type of cure rate model is the mixture model introduced by Berkson and Gage [1]. In this model, it is assumed that a certain proportion of the patients are cured, in the sense that they do not present the event of interest during a long period of time and can found to be immune to the cause of failure under study. In this paper, we propose a general hazard model which accommodates comprehensive families of cure rate models as particular cases, including the model proposed by Berkson and Gage. The maximum-likelihood-estimation procedure is discussed. A simulation study analyzes the coverage probabilities of the asymptotic confidence intervals for the parameters. A real data set on children exposed to HIV by vertical transmission illustrates the methodology.