Parametric and nonparametric statistical modelling of crop yield: implications for pricing crop insurance contracts

This article considers alternative methods to calculate the fair premium rate of crop insurance contracts based on county yields. The premium rate was calculated using parametric and nonparametric approaches to estimate the conditional agricultural yield density. These methods were applied to a data set of county yield provided by the Statistical and Geography Brazilian Institute (IBGE), for the period of 1990 through 2002, for soybean, corn and wheat, in the State of Paran. In this article, we propose methodological alternatives to pricing crop insurance contracts resulting in more accurate premium rates in a situation of limited data.

Progeny evaluation for resistance to Phaeosphaeria leaf spot in tropical maize

Maize breeding programmes in Brazil and elsewhere seek reliable methods to identify genotypes resistant to Phaeosphaeria leaf spot. The area under the disease progress curve (AUDPC) is an accurate method to evaluate the severity of foliar diseases. However, at least three data points are required to calculate the AUDPC, which is unfeasible when there are thousands of genotypes to be assessed. The aim of this work was to estimate the heritability of disease resistance, evaluate disease severity at different times using a nine-point scale in comparison to the AUDPC, and establish the most suitable phenological period for disease assessment. A repeated experiment was conducted in a 11 x 11 lattice experimental design with three replications. Disease assessments were carried out at flowering, 15 and 30 days post-anthesis for the parental lines DS95, DAS21, the F1 generation and 118 F2:3 progenies. Then, the AUDPC was obtained and results compared with the single-point evaluations used to calculate it. Individual and joint analyses of variance were conducted to obtain heritabiliy estimates. The assessments performed after the flowering stage gave higher estimates of heritability and correlation with AUDPC. We concluded that one assessment between the 15th and 30th day after flowering could provide enough information to distinguish maize genotypes for their resistance to Phaeosphaeria leaf spot under tropical conditions.

Yield loss caused by huanglongbing in different sweet orange cultivars in So Paulo, Brazil

Citrus huanglongbing (HLB) reduces an affected orchard`s economic life. This work aimed to characterize yield loss due to HLB for different sweet orange cultivars and determine the relationship between disease severity and yield. Disease severity and yield were assessed on 949 individual trees distributed in 11 different blocks from sweet orange cultivars Hamlin, Westin, Pera and Valencia. In each block, plants showing a range of HLB severity levels and asymptomatic plants were selected. Total yield (weight of harvested fruit), mean weight of asymptomatic and symptomatic fruit, relative yield (symptomatic tree yield/mean yield of asymptomatic trees from the same block) and relative number of fruits (fruit number from symptomatic tree/mean number of fruits from asymptomatic trees from the same block) were determined. The weight of symptomatic fruit was lower than the weight of asymptomatic fruit, but the weights of asymptomatic and symptomatic fruit were not correlated with disease severity, indicating that the effects of HLB were restricted to symptomatic branches. The relationship of the relative yield with HLB severity can be satisfactorily described by a negative exponential model. The rates of yield decrease as a function of disease severity were similar for all assessed cultivars. A relative yield (up to 19%) was observed even for trees where disease severity was 100%. The strong linear relationship between relative number of fruits per tree and the relative yield per tree suggested that the yield reduction was due primarily to early fruit drop or lack of fruit set on affected branches.

Localization of Pantoea ananatis inside lesions of maize White Spot Disease using transmission electron microscopy and molecular techniques

The etiological agent of maize white spot (MWS) disease has been a subject of controversy and discussion. Initially the disease was described as Phaeosphaeria leaf spot caused by Phaeosphaeria maydis. Other authors have Suggested the existence of different fungal species causing similar symptoms. Recently, a bacterium, Pantoea ananatis, was described as the causal agent of this disease. The purpose of this Study was to offer additional information on the correct etiology of this disease by providing visual evidence of the presence of the bacterium in the interior of the MWS lesions by using transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and molecular techniques. The TEM allowed Visualization of a large amount of bacteria in the intercellular spaces of lesions collected from both artificially and naturally infected plants. Fungal structures were not visualized in young lesions. Bacterial primers for the 16S rRNA and rpoB genes were used in PCR reactions to amplify DNA extracted from water-soaked (young) and necrotic lesions. The universal fungal oligonucleotide ITS4 was also included to identity the possible presence of fungal structures inside lesions. Positive PCR products from water-soaked lesions, both from naturally and artificially inoculated plants, were produced with bacterial primers, whereas no amplification was observed when ITS4 oligonucleotide was used. On the other hand, DNA amplification with ITS4 primer was observed when DNA was isolated from necrotic (old) lesions. These results reinforced previous report of P. ananatis as the primary pathogen and the hypothesis that fungal species may colonize lesions pre-established by P. ananatis.

Role of healthy nursery plants in orange yield during eight years of Citrus Variegated Chlorosis epidemics

The production and commercialization of citrus seedlings inspected and produced in protected screen-houses has become mandatory in Sao Paulo State, Brazil since January 2003. This law was intended to avoid the dispersion of Citrus Variegated Chlorosis (CVC), disease caused by Xylella fastidiosa. Our objective was to compare the yield over 8 years of `Natal` sweet orange trees grafted onto Rangpur lime obtained from healthy nursery plants and from plants artificially inoculated with X. fastidiosa. Yield was evaluated in an orchard planted in February 1999 with two treatments: (i) trees from healthy nursery plant, and (ii) trees from plants artificially inoculated with X. fastidiosa. The mean yield was 21% higher in trees from healthy nursery plants, as compared to trees from inoculated nursery plants. This difference represents a gain of approximately 203 boxes of 40.8 kg each, considering a planting density of 550 plants per hectare. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Identification of microsatellites markers associated with yield components and quality parameters in sugarcane

Marker assisted selection depends on the identification of tightly linked association between marker and the trait of interest. In the present work, functional (EST-SSRs) and genomic (gSSRs) microsatellite markers were used to detect putative QTLs for sugarcane yield components (stalk number, diameter and height) and as well as for quality parameters (Brix, Pol and fibre) in plant cane. The mapping population (200 individuals) was derived from a bi-parental cross (IACSP95-3018 x IACSP93-3046) from the IAC Sugarcane Breeding Program. As the map is under construction, single marker trait association analysis based on the likelihood ratio test was undertaken to detect the QTLs. Of the 215 single dose markers evaluated (1:1 and 3:1), 90 (42%) were associated with putative QTLs involving 43 microsatellite primers (18 gSSRs and 25 EST-SSRs). For the yield components, 41 marker/trait associations were found: 20 for height, 6 for diameter and 15 for stalk number. An EST-SSRs marker with homology to non-phototropic hypocotyls 4 (NPH4) protein was associated with a putative QTL with positive effect for diameter as also with a negative effect for stalk number. In relation to the quality parameters, 18 marker trait associations were found for Brix, 19 for Pol, and 12 for fibre. For fibre, 58% of the QTLs detected showed a negative effect on this trait. Some makers associated with QTLs with a negative effect for fibre showed a positive effect for Pol, reflecting the negative correlation generally observed between these traits.

Analysis of genomic and functional RFLP derived markers associated with sucrose content, fiber and yield QTLs in a sugarcane (Saccharum spp.) commercial cross

Expressed sequence tags derived markers have a great potential to be used in functional map construction and QTL tagging. In the present work, sugarcane genomic probes and expressed sequence tags having homology to genes, mostly involved in carbohydrate metabolism were used in RFLP assays to identify putative QTLs as well as their epistatic interactions for fiber content, cane yield, pol and tones of sugar per hectare, at two crop cycles in a progeny derived from a bi-parental cross of sugarcane elite materials. A hundred and twenty marker trait associations were found, of which 26 at both crop cycle and 32 only at first ratoon cane. A sucrose synthase derived marker was associated with a putative QTL having a high negative effect on cane yield and also with a QTL having a positive effect on Pol at both crop cycles. Fifty digenic epistatic marker interactions were identified for the four traits evaluated. Of these, only two were observed at both crop cycles.

Genetic variability in S(1) families from different maize populations.

Genetic variability in S(1) families from different maize populations. The objectives of the present work were directed towards the study of genetic: variablilty In seven maize populations with a broad genetic base, as a guide for population improvement. The field evaluation was conducted in completely randomized blocks, at one location (Anhembi, Sao Paulo state) with different groups, of S(1) families Obtained from seven populations (GO-D: dent type, GO-F: flint type, GO-L: long car, GO-G: thick Car; and composites G3, G4 and GO-S). Estimates were obtained for genetic variance (progeny mean basis), phenotypic variance of families means, and coefficient of heritability (broad sense) for progeny means. Estimates of heritability were high for Car weight (0,89 to 0.94), car length (0.77 to 0.88) and car diameter (0.77 to 0.92); and lower for plant height (0.58 to 0.80) and Car height (0.54 to 0.84), thus showing the high Potential of the populations for recurrent selection based oil S, families. Ear yield in the base populations used as controls varied front 11,200 kg ha(-1) (GO-D) to 12,800 kg ha(-1) (G3). The means of S(1) families varied from 6,070 kg ha(-1) (GO-F) to 7,380 kg ha(-1) (G4); the Inbreeding depression in S(1) Families varied front 37.5% (G4) to 48.0% (G3) relative to the non-inbred population.

Quantitative Trait Loci Mapping and The Genetic Basis of Heterosis in Maize and Rice

Despite its importance to agriculture, the genetic basis of heterosis is still not well understood. The main competing hypotheses include dominance, overdominance, and epistasis. NC design III is an experimental design that. has been used for estimating the average degree of dominance of quantitative trait 106 (QTL) and also for studying heterosis. In this study, we first develop a multiple-interval mapping (MIM) model for design III that provides a platform to estimate the number, genomic positions, augmented additive and dominance effects, and epistatic interactions of QTL. The model can be used for parents with any generation of selling. We apply the method to two data sets, one for maize and one for rice. Our results show that heterosis in maize is mainly due to dominant gene action, although overdominance of individual QTL could not completely be ruled out due to the mapping resolution and limitations of NC design III. For rice, the estimated QTL dominant effects could not explain the observed heterosis. There is evidence that additive X additive epistatic effects of QTL could be the main cause for the heterosis in rice. The difference in the genetic basis of heterosis seems to be related to open or self pollination of the two species. The MIM model for NC design III is implemented in Windows QTL Cartographer, a freely distributed software.

Tree performance and fruit yield and quality of `Okitsu` Satsuma mandarin grafted on 12 rootstocks

The citriculture in Brazil, as well as in other important regions in the world, is based on very few mandarin cultivars. This fact leads to a short harvest period and higher prices for off-season fruit. The `Okitsu` Satsuma (Citrus unshiu Marc.) is among the earliest ripening mandarin cultivars and it is considered to be tolerant to, citrus canker (Xanthomonas citri subsp. citri Schaad et al.) and to citrus variegated chlorosis (Xylella fastidiosa Wells et al.). Despite having regular fruit quality under hot climate conditions, the early fruit maturation and absence of seeds of `Okitsu` fruits are well suited for the local market in the summer(December through March), when the availability of citrus fruits for fresh consumption is limited. Yet, only a few studies have been conducted in Brazil on rootstocks for `Okitsu`. Consequently, a field trial was carried out in Bebeclouro, Sao Paulo State, to evaluate the horticultural performance of `Okitsu` Satsuma mandarin budded onto 12 rootstocks: the citrandarin `Changsha` mandarin (Citrus reticulata Blanco) x Poncirus trifoliata `English Small`: the hybrid Rangpur lime (Citrus limonia Osbeck) x `Swingle` citrumelo (P. trifoliata (L.) Raf. x Citrus paradisi Macfad.); the trifoliates (P. trifoliata (L) Raf)`Rubidoux`,`FCAV` and `Flying Dragon`(P. trifoliata var. monstrosa); the mandarins `Sun Chu Sha Kat`(C. reticulata Blanco) and `Sunki`(Citrus sunki (Hayata) Hort. ex. Tanaka); the Rangpur limes (C. limonia Osbeck) `Cravo Limeira` and `Cravo FCAV`;`Carrizo` citrange (Citrus sinensis x P. trifoliata), `Swingle` citrumelo (P. trifoliata x C. paradisi), and `Orlando` tangelo (C. paradisi x Citrus tangerina cv. `Dancy`). The experimental grove was planted in 2001, using a 6 m x 3 m spacing, in a randomized block design. No supplementary irrigation was applied. Fruit yield, canopy volume, and fruit quality were assessed for each rootstock. A cluster multivariate analysis identified three different rootstock pairs with similar effects on plant growth, yield and fruit quality of `Okitsu` mandarin. The `Flying Dragon `trifoliate had a unique effect over the `Okitsu` trees performance, inducing lower canopy volume and higher yield efficiency and fruit quality, and might be suitable for high-density plantings. The `Cravo Limeira` and `Cravo FCAV` Rangpur limes induced early-ripening of fruits, with low fruit quality. `Sun Chu Sha Kat` and `Sunki` mandarins and the `Orlando` tangelo conferred lower yield efficiency and less content of soluble solids for the latter rootstock. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Seed development, yield and quality of two palm species growing in different tropical forest types in SE Brazil: implications for ecological restoration

Natural forest remnants have been set as seed production fields to supply seeds of native tree species for tropical forest restoration, but the effect of different forest types on seed production has not been accessed to date for palm species. In this work, we studied seed development, yield, and quality of two palm species in different tropical forest types in SE Brazil. Seed production of palmiteiro (Euterpe edulis) and queen-palm (Syagrus romanzoffiana), which are largely used in restoration efforts due to their importance for vertebrate frugivores, were studied in natural remnants of Atlantic Rainforest, Restinga Forest, Seasonally Dry Forest, and Cerrado Forest. We studied seed development, yield, size, and germination of seed lots produced in some of these forest types, including seeds harvested in 2008, 2009, and both years. Seed yield and quality, as well as seed dry mass in 2009, were higher for palmiteiro seeds produced in the Atlantic Rainforest, while queen-palm seeds produced at the Restinga Forest showed the higher mass and yield, but the lowest physiological potential. Consequently, these natural differences of seed yield and quality have to be taken into account for establishing standards for seed commercialization and analysis, seed pricing, and seedling production in forest nurseries.

Evaluating responses of maize (Zea mays L.) to soil physical conditions using a boundary line approach

The functional relation between the decline in the rate of a physiological process and the magnitude of a stress related to soil physical conditions is an important tool for uses as diverse as assessment of the stress-related sensitivity of different plant cultivars and characterization of soil structure. Two of the most pervasive sources of stress are soil resistance to root penetration (SR) and matric potential (psi). However, the assessment of these sources of stress on physiological processes in different soils can be complicated by other sources of stress and by the strong relation between SR and psi in a soil. A multivariate boundary line approach was assessed as a means of reducing these cornplications. The effects of SR and psi stress conditions on plant responses were examined under growth chamber conditions. Maize plants (Zea mays L.) were grown in soils at different water contents and having different structures arising from variation in texture, organic carbon content and soil compaction. Measurements of carbon exchange (CE), leaf transpiration (ILT), plant transpiration (PT), leaf area (LA), leaf + shoot dry weight (LSDW), root total length (RTL), root surface area (RSA) and root dry weight (RDW) were determined after plants reached the 12-leaf stage. The LT, PT and LA were described as a function of SR and psi with a double S-shaped function using the multivariate boundary line approach. The CE and LSDW were described by the combination of an S-shaped function for SR and a linear function for psi. The root parameters were described by a single S-shaped function for SR. The sensitivity to SR and psi depended on the plant parameter. Values of PT, LA and LSDW were most sensitive to SR. Among those parameters exhibiting a significant response to psi, PT was most sensitive. The boundary line approach was found to be a useful tool to describe the functional relation between the decline in the rate of a physiological process and the magnitude of a stress related to soil physical conditions. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Parametric correlation functions to model the structure of permanent environmental (co)variances in milk yield random regression models

The objective of the present study was to estimate milk yield genetic parameters applying random regression models and parametric correlation functions combined with a variance function to model animal permanent environmental effects. A total of 152,145 test-day milk yields from 7,317 first lactations of Holstein cows belonging to herds located in the southeastern region of Brazil were analyzed. Test-day milk yields were divided into 44 weekly classes of days in milk. Contemporary groups were defined by herd-test-day comprising a total of 2,539 classes. The model included direct additive genetic, permanent environmental, and residual random effects. The following fixed effects were considered: contemporary group, age of cow at calving (linear and quadratic regressions), and the population average lactation curve modeled by fourth-order orthogonal Legendre polynomial. Additive genetic effects were modeled by random regression on orthogonal Legendre polynomials of days in milk, whereas permanent environmental effects were estimated using a stationary or nonstationary parametric correlation function combined with a variance function of different orders. The structure of residual variances was modeled using a step function containing 6 variance classes. The genetic parameter estimates obtained with the model using a stationary correlation function associated with a variance function to model permanent environmental effects were similar to those obtained with models employing orthogonal Legendre polynomials for the same effect. A model using a sixth-order polynomial for additive effects and a stationary parametric correlation function associated with a seventh-order variance function to model permanent environmental effects would be sufficient for data fitting.

Random regression models to estimate test-day milk yield genetic parameters Holstein cows in Southeastern Brazil

A total of 152,145 weekly test-day milk yield records from 7317 first lactations of Holstein cows distributed in 93 herds in southeastern Brazil were analyzed. Test-day milk yields were classified into 44 weekly classes of DIM. The contemporary groups were defined as herd-year-week of test-day. The model included direct additive genetic, permanent environmental and residual effects as random and fixed effects of contemporary group and age of cow at calving as covariable, linear and quadratic effects. Mean trends were modeled by a cubic regression on orthogonal polynomials of DIM. Additive genetic and permanent environmental random effects were estimated by random regression on orthogonal Legendre polynomials. Residual variances were modeled using third to seventh-order variance functions or a step function with 1, 6,13,17 and 44 variance classes. Results from Akaike`s and Schwarz`s Bayesian information criterion suggested that a model considering a 7th-order Legendre polynomial for additive effect, a 12th-order polynomial for permanent environment effect and a step function with 6 classes for residual variances, fitted best. However, a parsimonious model, with a 6th-order Legendre polynomial for additive effects and a 7th-order polynomial for permanent environmental effects, yielded very similar genetic parameter estimates. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Milk yield, milk composition, eating behavior, and lamb performance of ewes fed diets containing soybean hulls replacing coastcross (Cynodon species) hay

The objective of this experiment was to evaluate the effects of replacing coastcross hay NDF by soybean hull (SH) NDF on the lactation performance and eating behavior of ewes and also on the performance of their lambs. Fifty-six Santa Ines lactating ewes (56.1 +/- 6.8 kg of initial BW; mean +/- SD) were penned individually and used in a randomized complete block design with 14 blocks and 4 treatments. Diets were formulated to provide similar concentrations of NDF (56%) and CP (16%). The SH NDF replaced 33 (SH33), 67 (SH67), or 100% (SH100) of the NDF contributed by coastcross hay in a 70% forage-based diet (SH0), resulting in SH inclusion rates of 0, 25, 54, and 85% of the dietary DM. Once a week, from the second to the eighth week of lactation (weaning time), ewes were separated from their lambs, stimulated by a 6-IU i.v. oxytocin injection, and hand milked to empty the udder. After 3 h, milk production was obtained after the same procedure. Quadratic effect for milk production (142.4, 179.8, 212.6, and 202.9 g/3 h) and cubic effect for DMI (2.27, 2.69, 3.25, and 3.00 kg/d) were observed as SH inclusion increased from 0 to 85% of the dietary DM. Milk fat (7.59, 7.86, 7.59, and 7.74%), protein (4.53, 4.43, 4.40, and 4.55%), and total solids (18.24, 18.54, 18.39, and 18.64%) did not differ among the 70% forage-based diet and diets with SH NDF replacing 33, 67, or 100% of the NDF. A linear increase in lactose concentration was observed with SH inclusion. Ewe BW gain during the trial showed a cubic response (0.37, 0.03, 4.80, and 2.80 kg) with SH inclusion. The preweaning ADG of lambs increased linearly, and ADG of lambs after weaning decreased linearly with SH inclusion. Final BW of lambs (2 wk after weaning) did not differ among treatments. Eating behavior observations were conducted with 44 ewes. The same facilities, experimental design, dietary treatments, and feeding management were used. Observations were visually recorded every 5 min for a 24-h period when ewes were 46 +/- 6.8 d in milk. Eating time (min/d, min/g of DMI, and min/g of NDF intake) and time expended in rumination and chewing activities (min/g of DMI and min/g of NDF intake) decreased linearly with the addition of SH in the diets. The inclusion of SH improved DMI and milk production, also reflecting on the BW of lambs at weaning. Milk performance was not affected when SH NDF replaced 100% of hay NDF.