The Effect of Spatial Scale on Predicting Time Series: A Study on Epidemiological System Identification

A susceptible-infective-recovered (SIR) epidemiological model based on probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA) is employed for simulating the temporal evolution of the registered cases of chickenpox in Arizona, USA, between 1994 and 2004. At each time step, every individual is in one of the states S, I, or R. The parameters of this model are the probabilities of each individual (each cell forming the PCA lattice ) passing from a state to another state. Here, the values of these probabilities are identified by using a genetic algorithm. If nonrealistic values are allowed to the parameters, the predictions present better agreement with the historical series than if they are forced to present realistic values. A discussion about how the size of the PCA lattice affects the quality of the model predictions is presented. Copyright (C) 2009 L. H. A. Monteiro et al.

Extraction and purification of total RNA from banana tissues (small scale)

Introduction. This protocol aims at preparing total RNA for gene expression analysis by Northern blots, RT-PCR and real-time quantitative PCR; cDNA isolation by RTPCR; and cDNA library construction. The principle, key advantages, starting plant material, time required for obtaining total RNA and expected results are presented. Materials and methods. This part describes the required materials and the 27 steps necessary for preparing RNA from peel and pulp fruit tissue: preparation of plant tissue powder, preparation of the complete RNA extraction buffer and isolation of RNA from ground banana fruit tissue. Results. Extraction of total RNA by the method described makes it possible to achieve electrophoresis under denatured conditions and in vitro reverse transcription. An example for Northern blot analysis is illustrated.

The non-equilibrium nature of culinary evolution

Food is an essential part of civilization, with a scope that ranges from the biological to the economic and cultural levels. Here, we study the statistics of ingredients and recipes taken from Brazilian, British, French and Medieval cookery books. We find universal distributions with scale invariant behaviour. We propose a copy-mutate process to model culinary evolution that fits our empirical data very well. We find a cultural 'founder effect' produced by the non-equilibrium dynamics of the model. Both the invariant and idiosyncratic aspects of culture are accounted for by our model, which may have applications in other kinds of evolutionary processes.

The Borg Scale as an Important Tool of Self-Monitoring and Self-Regulation of Exercise Prescription in Heart Failure Patients During Hydrotherapy - A Randomized Blinded Controlled Trial

Background: The Borg Scale may be a useful tool for heart failure patients to self-monitor and self-regulate exercise on land or in water (hydrotherapy) by maintaining the heart rate (HR) between the anaerobic threshold and respiratory compensation point. Methods and Results: Patients performed a cardiopulmonary exercise test to determine their anaerobic threshold/respiratory compensation points. The percentage of the mean HR during the exercise session in relation to the anaerobic threshold HR (%EHR-AT), in relation to the respiratory compensation point (%EHR-RCP), in relation to the peak HR by the exercise test (%EHR-Peak) and in relation to the maximum predicted HR (%EHR-Predicted) was calculated. Next, patients were randomized into the land or water exercise group. One blinded investigator instructed the patients in each group to exercise at a level between ""relatively easy and slightly tiring"". The mean HR throughout the 30-min exercise session was recorded. The %EHR-AT and %EHR-Predicted did not differ between the land and water exercisegroups, but they differed in the %EHR-RCP (95 +/- 7 to 86 +/- 7. P<0.001) and in the %EHR-Peak (85 +/- 8 to 78 +/- 9, P=0.007). Conclusions: Exercise guided by the Borg scale maintains the patient's HR between the anaerobic threshold and respiratory compensation point (ie, in the exercise training zone). (Circ J 2009; 73: 1871-1876)

Continental passive microwave-based rainfall estimation algorithm: Application to the Amazon Basin

This paper presents a new statistical algorithm to estimate rainfall over the Amazon Basin region using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI). The algorithm relies on empirical relationships derived for different raining-type systems between coincident measurements of surface rainfall rate and 85-GHz polarization-corrected brightness temperature as observed by the precipitation radar (PR) and TMI on board the TRMM satellite. The scheme includes rain/no-rain area delineation (screening) and system-type classification routines for rain retrieval. The algorithm is validated against independent measurements of the TRMM-PR and S-band dual-polarization Doppler radar (S-Pol) surface rainfall data for two different periods. Moreover, the performance of this rainfall estimation technique is evaluated against well-known methods, namely, the TRMM-2A12 [ the Goddard profiling algorithm (GPROF)], the Goddard scattering algorithm (GSCAT), and the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) algorithms. The proposed algorithm shows a normalized bias of approximately 23% for both PR and S-Pol ground truth datasets and a mean error of 0.244 mm h(-1) ( PR) and -0.157 mm h(-1)(S-Pol). For rain volume estimates using PR as reference, a correlation coefficient of 0.939 and a normalized bias of 0.039 were found. With respect to rainfall distributions and rain area comparisons, the results showed that the formulation proposed is efficient and compatible with the physics and dynamics of the observed systems over the area of interest. The performance of the other algorithms showed that GSCAT presented low normalized bias for rain areas and rain volume [0.346 ( PR) and 0.361 (S-Pol)], and GPROF showed rainfall distribution similar to that of the PR and S-Pol but with a bimodal distribution. Last, the five algorithms were evaluated during the TRMM-Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA) 1999 field campaign to verify the precipitation characteristics observed during the easterly and westerly Amazon wind flow regimes. The proposed algorithm presented a cumulative rainfall distribution similar to the observations during the easterly regime, but it underestimated for the westerly period for rainfall rates above 5 mm h(-1). NESDIS(1) overestimated for both wind regimes but presented the best westerly representation. NESDIS(2), GSCAT, and GPROF underestimated in both regimes, but GPROF was closer to the observations during the easterly flow.

The viscosity parameter's dependence on the profile of the disk scale height

It is shown that, for accretion disks, the height scale is a constant whenever hydrostatic equilibrium and the subsonic turbulence regime hold in the disk. In order to have a variable height scale, processes are needed that contribute an extra term to the continuity equation. This contribution makes the viscosity parameter much greater in the outer region and much smaller in the inner region. Under these circumstances, turbulence is the presumable source of viscosity in the disk.

Age distribution of the central stars of galactic disk planetary nebulae

Context. Determination of the ages of central stars of planetary nebulae (CSPN) is a complex problem, and there is presently no single method that can be generally applied. We have developed several methods of estimating the ages of CSPN, based on both the observed nebular properties and some properties of the stars themselves. Aims. Our aim is to estimate the ages and the age distribution of CSPN and to compare the derived results with mass and age determinations of CSPN and white dwarfs based on empirical determinations of these quantities. Methods. We considered a sample of planetary nebulae in the galactic disk, most of which (similar to 69%) are located in the solar neighbourhood, within 3 kpc from the Sun. We discuss several methods of deriving the age distribution of CSPN, namely; (i) the use of an age-metallicity relation that also depends on the galactocentric distance; (ii) the use of an age-metallicity relation obtained for the galactic disk; and (iii) the determination of ages from the central star masses obtained from the observed nitrogen abundances. Results. We estimated the age distribution of CSPN with average uncertainties of 1-2 Gyr, and compared our results with the expected distribution based both on the observed mass distribution of white dwarfs and on the age distribution derived from available mass distributions of CSPN. Based on our derived age distributions, we conclude that most CSPN in the galactic disk have ages under 6 Gyr, and that the age distribution is peaked around 2-4 Gyr.

A FIRST CONSTRAINT ON THE THICK DISK SCALE LENGTH: DIFFERENTIAL RADIAL ABUNDANCES IN K GIANTS AT GALACTOCENTRIC RADII 4, 8, AND 12 kpc

Based on high-resolution spectra obtained with the MIKE spectrograph on the Magellan telescopes, we present detailed elemental abundances for 20 red giant stars in the outer Galactic disk, located at Galactocentric distances between 9 and 13 kpc. The outer disk sample is complemented with samples of red giants from the inner Galactic disk and the solar neighborhood, analyzed using identical methods. For Galactocentric distances beyond 10 kpc, we only find chemical patterns associated with the local thin disk, even for stars far above the Galactic plane. Our results show that the relative densities of the thick and thin disks are dramatically different from the solar neighborhood, and we therefore suggest that the radial scale length of the thick disk is much shorter than that of the thin disk. We make a first estimate of the thick disk scale length of L(thick) = 2.0 kpc, assuming L(thin) = 3.8 kpc for the thin disk. We suggest that radial migration may explain the lack of radial age, metallicity, and abundance gradients in the thick disk, possibly also explaining the link between the thick disk and the metal-poor bulge.

An overview of the Amazonian Aerosol Characterization Experiment 2008 (AMAZE-08)

The Amazon Basin provides an excellent environment for studying the sources, transformations, and properties of natural aerosol particles and the resulting links between biological processes and climate. With this framework in mind, the Amazonian Aerosol Characterization Experiment (AMAZE-08), carried out from 7 February to 14 March 2008 during the wet season in the central Amazon Basin, sought to understand the formation, transformations, and cloud-forming properties of fine-and coarse-mode biogenic aerosol particles, especially as related to their effects on cloud activation and regional climate. Special foci included (1) the production mechanisms of secondary organic components at a pristine continental site, including the factors regulating their temporal variability, and (2) predicting and understanding the cloud-forming properties of biogenic particles at such a site. In this overview paper, the field site and the instrumentation employed during the campaign are introduced. Observations and findings are reported, including the large-scale context for the campaign, especially as provided by satellite observations. New findings presented include: (i) a particle number-diameter distribution from 10 nm to 10 mu m that is representative of the pristine tropical rain forest and recommended for model use; (ii) the absence of substantial quantities of primary biological particles in the submicron mode as evidenced by mass spectral characterization; (iii) the large-scale production of secondary organic material; (iv) insights into the chemical and physical properties of the particles as revealed by thermodenuder-induced changes in the particle number-diameter distributions and mass spectra; and (v) comparisons of ground-based predictions and satellite-based observations of hydrometeor phase in clouds. A main finding of AMAZE-08 is the dominance of secondary organic material as particle components. The results presented here provide mechanistic insight and quantitative parameters that can serve to increase the accuracy of models of the formation, transformations, and cloud-forming properties of biogenic natural aerosol particles, especially as related to their effects on cloud activation and regional climate.

Gluon-Spin Contribution to the Proton Spin from the Double-Helicity Asymmetry in Inclusive pi(0) Production in Polarized p plus p Collisions at root s=200 GeV

The double helicity asymmetry in neutral pion production for p(T) = 1 to 12 GeV/c was measured with the PHENIX experiment to access the gluon-spin contribution, Delta G, to the proton spin. Measured asymmetries are consistent with zero, and at a theory scale of mu 2 = 4 GeV(2) a next to leading order QCD analysis gives Delta G([0.02,0.3]) = 0.2, with a constraint of -0.7 < Delta G([0.02,0.3]) < 0.5 at Delta chi(2) = 9 (similar to 3 sigma) for the sampled gluon momentum fraction (x) range, 0.02 to 0.3. The results are obtained using predictions for the measured asymmetries generated from four representative fits to polarized deep inelastic scattering data. We also consider the dependence of the Delta G constraint on the choice of the theoretical scale, a dominant uncertainty in these predictions.

Event structure and double helicity asymmetry in jet production from polarized p plus p collisions at root s=200 GeV

We report on the event structure and double helicity asymmetry (A(LL)) of jet production in longitudinally polarized p + p collisions at root s = 200 GeV. Photons and charged particles were measured by the PHENIX experiment at midrapidity vertical bar eta vertical bar < 0.35 with the requirement of a high-momentum (> 2 GeV/c) photon in the event. Event structure, such as multiplicity, p(T) density and thrust in the PHENIX acceptance, were measured and compared with the results from the PYTHIA event generator and the GEANT detector simulation. The shape of jets and the underlying event were well reproduced at this collision energy. For the measurement of jet A(LL), photons and charged particles were clustered with a seed-cone algorithm to obtain the cluster pT sum (p(T)(reco)). The effect of detector response and the underlying events on p(T)(reco) was evaluated with the simulation. The production rate of reconstructed jets is satisfactorily reproduced with the next-to-leading-order and perturbative quantum chromodynamics jet production cross section. For 4< p(T)(reco) < 12 GeV/c with an average beam polarization of < P > = 49% we measured Lambda(LL) = -0.0014 +/- 0.0037(stat) at the lowest p(T)(reco) bin (4-5 GeV= c) and -0.0181 +/- 0.0282(stat) at the highest p(T)(reco) bin (10-12 GeV= c) with a beam polarization scale error of 9.4% and a pT scale error of 10%. Jets in the measured p(T)(reco) range arise primarily from hard-scattered gluons with momentum fraction 0: 02 < x < 0: 3 according to PYTHIA. The measured A(LL) is compared with predictions that assume various Delta G(x) distributions based on the Gluck-Reya-Stratmann-Vogelsang parameterization. The present result imposes the limit -a.1 < integral(0.3)(0.02) dx Delta G(x, mu(2) = GeV2) < 0.4 at 95% confidence level or integral(0.3)(0.002) dx Delta G(x, mu(2) = 1 GeV2) < 0.5 at 99% confidence level.

Higher Moments of Net Proton Multiplicity Distributions at RHIC

200 GeV corresponding to baryon chemical potentials (mu(B)) between 200 and 20 MeV. Our measurements of the products kappa sigma(2) and S sigma, which can be related to theoretical calculations sensitive to baryon number susceptibilities and long-range correlations, are constant as functions of collision centrality. We compare these products with results from lattice QCD and various models without a critical point and study the root s(NN) dependence of kappa sigma(2). From the measurements at the three beam energies, we find no evidence for a critical point in the QCD phase diagram for mu(B) below 200 MeV.

Barrier distributions for weakly bound systems

We discuss the use of reduced fusion cross sections in the derivation of fusion barrier distributions. We show that the elimination of static effects associated with system sizes and optical potentials obtained by the recently introduced fusion functions can be extended to barrier distributions. This can be a useful tool for systematic studies of breakup coupling effects in fusion processes.

Atomic scale characterization of Mn doped InAs/GaAs quantum dots

Several growth procedures for doping InAs/GaAs quantum dots (QDs) with manganese (Mn) have been investigated with cross-sectional scanning tunneling microscopy. It is found that expulsion of Mn out of the QDs and subsequent segregation makes it difficult to incorporate Mn in the QDs even at low growth temperatures of T=320 degrees C and high Mn fluxes. Mn atoms in and around QDs have been observed with strain and potential confinement changing the appearance of the Mn features.

Determination of the molecular weight of proteins in solution from a single small-angle X-ray scattering measurement on a relative scale

This paper describes a new and simple method to determine the molecular weight of proteins in dilute solution, with an error smaller than similar to 10%, by using the experimental data of a single small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) curve measured on a relative scale. This procedure does not require the measurement of SAXS intensity on an absolute scale and does not involve a comparison with another SAXS curve determined from a known standard protein. The proposed procedure can be applied to monodisperse systems of proteins in dilute solution, either in monomeric or multimeric state, and it has been successfully tested on SAXS data experimentally determined for proteins with known molecular weights. It is shown here that the molecular weights determined by this procedure deviate from the known values by less than 10% in each case and the average error for the test set of 21 proteins was 5.3%. Importantly, this method allows for an unambiguous determination of the multimeric state of proteins with known molecular weights.