Water Resources Assessment at Piracicaba, Capivari and Jundiai River Basins: A Dynamic Systems Approach

The Piracicaba, Capivari, and Jundiai River Basins (RB-PCJ) are mainly located in the State of So Paulo, Brazil. Using a dynamics systems simulation model (WRM-PCJ) to assess water resources sustainability, five 50-year simulations were run. WRM-PCJ was developed as a tool to aid decision and policy makers on the RB-PCJ Watershed Committee. The model has 254 variables. The model was calibrated and validated using available information from the 80s. Falkenmark Water Stress Index went from 1,403 m(3) person (-aEuro parts per thousand 1) year (-aEuro parts per thousand 1) in 2004 to 734 m(3) P (-aEuro parts per thousand 1) year (-aEuro parts per thousand 1) in 2054, and Xu Sustainability Index from 0.44 to 0.20. In 2004, the Keller River Basin Development Phase was Conservation, and by 2054 was Augmentation. The three criteria used to evaluate water resources showed that the watershed is at crucial water resources management turning point. The WRM-PCJ performed well, and it proved to be an excellent tool for decision and policy makers at RB-PCJ.

Spatial Modeling of a Soil Fertility Index using Visible-Near-Infrared Spectra and Terrain Attributes

Our objective was to develop a methodology to predict soil fertility using visible near-infrared (vis-NIR) diffuse reflectance spectra and terrain attributes derived from a digital elevation model (DEM). Specifically, our aims were to: (i) assemble a minimum data set to develop a soil fertility index for sugarcane (Sarcharum officinarum L.) (SFI-SC) for biofuel production in tropical soils; (ii) construct a model to predict the SFI-SC using soil vis-NIR spectra and terrain attributes; and (iii) produce a soil fertility map for our study area and assess it by comparing it with a green vegetation index (GVI). The study area was 185 ha located in sao Paulo State, Brazil. In total, 184 soil samples were collected and analyzed for a range of soil chemical and physical properties. Their vis-NIR spectra were collected from 400 to 2500 nm. The Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission 3-arcsec (90-m resolution) DEM of the area was used to derive 17 terrain attributes. A minimum data set of soil properties was selected to develop the SFI-SC. The SFI-SC consisted of three classes: Class 1, the highly fertile soils; Class 2, the fertile soils; and Class 3, the least fertile soils. It was derived heuristically with conditionals and using expert knowledge. The index was modeled with the spectra and terrain data using cross-validated decision trees. The cross-validation of the model correctly predicted Class 1 in 75% of cases, Class 2 in 61%, and Class 3 in 65%. A fertility map was derived for the study area and compared with a map of the GVI. Our approach offers a methodology that incorporates expert knowledge to derive the SFI-SC and uses a versatile spectro-spatial methodology that may be implemented for rapid and accurate determination of soil fertility and better exploration of areas suitable for production.

QSAR Modeling of a Set of Pyrazinoate Esters as Antituberculosis Prodrugs

Tuberculosis is an infection caused mainly by Mycobacterium tuberculosis. A first-line antimycobacterial drug is pyrazinamide (PZA), which acts partially as a prodrug activated by a pyrazinamidase releasing the active agent, pyrazinoic acid (POA). As pyrazinoic acid presents some difficulty to cross the mycobacterial cell wall, and also the pyrazinamide-resistant strains do not express the pyrazinamidase, a set of pyrazinoic acid esters have been evaluated as antimycobacterial agents. In this work, a QSAR approach was applied to a set of forty-three pyrazinoates against M. tuberculosis ATCC 27294, using genetic algorithm function and partial least squares regression (WOLF 5.5 program). The independent variables selected were the Balaban index (I), calculated n-octanol/water partition coefficient (ClogP), van-der-Waals surface area, dipole moment, and stretching-energy contribution. The final QSAR model (N = 32, r(2) = 0.68, q(2) = 0.59, LOF = 0.25, and LSE = 0.19) was fully validated employing leave-N-out cross-validation and y-scrambling techniques. The test set (N = 11) presented an external prediction power of 73%. In conclusion, the QSAR model generated can be used as a valuable tool to optimize the activity of future pyrazinoic acid esters in the designing of new antituberculosis agents.

Multilabeled classification approach to find a plaint source for terpenoids

Recently, we have built a classification model that is capable of assigning a given sesquiterpene lactone (STL) into exactly one tribe of the plant family Asteraceae from which the STL has been isolated. Although many plant species are able to biosynthesize a set of peculiar compounds, the occurrence of the same secondary metabolites in more than one tribe of Asteraceae is frequent. Building on our previous work, in this paper, we explore the possibility of assigning an STL to more than one tribe (class) simultaneously. When an object may belong to more than one class simultaneously, it is called multilabeled. In this work, we present a general overview of the techniques available to examine multilabeled data. The problem of evaluating the performance of a multilabeled classifier is discussed. Two particular multilabeled classification methods-cross-training with support vector machines (ct-SVM) and multilabeled k-nearest neighbors (M-L-kNN)were applied to the classification of the STLs into seven tribes from the plant family Asteraceae. The results are compared to a single-label classification and are analyzed from a chemotaxonomic point of view. The multilabeled approach allowed us to (1) model the reality as closely as possible, (2) improve our understanding of the relationship between the secondary metabolite profiles of different Asteraceae tribes, and (3) significantly decrease the number of plant sources to be considered for finding a certain STL. The presented classification models are useful for the targeted collection of plants with the objective of finding plant sources of natural compounds that are biologically active or possess other specific properties of interest.

Analyzing the connectivity between regions of interest: An approach based on cluster Granger causality for NRI data analysis

The identification, modeling, and analysis of interactions between nodes of neural systems in the human brain have become the aim of interest of many studies in neuroscience. The complex neural network structure and its correlations with brain functions have played a role in all areas of neuroscience, including the comprehension of cognitive and emotional processing. Indeed, understanding how information is stored, retrieved, processed, and transmitted is one of the ultimate challenges in brain research. In this context, in functional neuroimaging, connectivity analysis is a major tool for the exploration and characterization of the information flow between specialized brain regions. In most functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) studies, connectivity analysis is carried out by first selecting regions of interest (ROI) and then calculating an average BOLD time series (across the voxels in each cluster). Some studies have shown that the average may not be a good choice and have suggested, as an alternative, the use of principal component analysis (PCA) to extract the principal eigen-time series from the ROI(s). In this paper, we introduce a novel approach called cluster Granger analysis (CGA) to study connectivity between ROIs. The main aim of this method was to employ multiple eigen-time series in each ROI to avoid temporal information loss during identification of Granger causality. Such information loss is inherent in averaging (e.g., to yield a single ""representative"" time series per ROI). This, in turn, may lead to a lack of power in detecting connections. The proposed approach is based on multivariate statistical analysis and integrates PCA and partial canonical correlation in a framework of Granger causality for clusters (sets) of time series. We also describe an algorithm for statistical significance testing based on bootstrapping. By using Monte Carlo simulations, we show that the proposed approach outperforms conventional Granger causality analysis (i.e., using representative time series extracted by signal averaging or first principal components estimation from ROIs). The usefulness of the CGA approach in real fMRI data is illustrated in an experiment using human faces expressing emotions. With this data set, the proposed approach suggested the presence of significantly more connections between the ROIs than were detected using a single representative time series in each ROI. (c) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Dynamical Modeling to Study the Adaptive Immune System and the Influence of Antibodies in the Immune Memory

Immunological systems have been an abundant inspiration to contemporary computer scientists. Problem solving strategies, stemming from known immune system phenomena, have been successfully applied to chall enging problems of modem computing. Simulation systems and mathematical modeling are also beginning use to answer more complex immunological questions as immune memory process and duration of vaccines, where the regulation mechanisms are not still known sufficiently (Lundegaard, Lund, Kesmir, Brunak, Nielsen, 2007). In this article we studied in machina a approach to simulate the process of antigenic mutation and its implications for the process of memory. Our results have suggested that the durability of the immune memory is affected by the process of antigenic mutation.and by populations of soluble antibodies in the blood. The results also strongly suggest that the decrease of the production of antibodies favors the global maintenance of immune memory.

TOWARD UNDERSTANDING THE B[e] PHENOMENON. IV. MODELING OF IRAS 00470+6429

FS CMa type stars are a recently described group of objects with the B[e] phenomenon which exhibits strong emission-line spectra and strong IR excesses. In this paper, we report the first attempt for a detailed modeling of IRAS 00470+6429, for which we have the best set of observations. Our modeling is based on two key assumptions: the star has a main-sequence luminosity for its spectral type (B2) and the circumstellar (CS) envelope is bimodal, composed of a slowly outflowing disklike wind and a fast polar wind. Both outflows are assumed to be purely radial. We adopt a novel approach to describe the dust formation site in the wind that employs timescale arguments for grain condensation and a self-consistent solution for the dust destruction surface. With the above assumptions we were able to satisfactorily reproduce many observational properties of IRAS 00470+6429, including the Hi line profiles and the overall shape of the spectral energy distribution. Our adopted recipe for dust formation proved successful in reproducing the correct amount of dust formed in the CS envelope. Possible shortcomings of our model, as well as suggestions for future improvements, are discussed.

Human Stem Cell Cultures from Cleft Lip/Palate Patients Show Enrichment of Transcripts Involved in Extracellular Matrix Modeling By Comparison to Controls

Nonsyndromic cleft lip and palate (NSCL/P) is a complex disease resulting from failure of fusion of facial primordia, a complex developmental process that includes the epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT). Detection of differential gene transcription between NSCL/P patients and control individuals offers an interesting alternative for investigating pathways involved in disease manifestation. Here we compared the transcriptome of 6 dental pulp stem cell (DPSC) cultures from NSCL/P patients and 6 controls. Eighty-seven differentially expressed genes (DEGs) were identified. The most significant putative gene network comprised 13 out of 87 DEGs of which 8 encode extracellular proteins: ACAN, COL4A1, COL4A2, GDF15, IGF2, MMP1, MMP3 and PDGFa. Through clustering analyses we also observed that MMP3, ACAN, COL4A1 and COL4A2 exhibit co-regulated expression. Interestingly, it is known that MMP3 cleavages a wide range of extracellular proteins, including the collagens IV, V, IX, X, proteoglycans, fibronectin and laminin. It is also capable of activating other MMPs. Moreover, MMP3 had previously been associated with NSCL/P. The same general pattern was observed in a further sample, confirming involvement of synchronized gene expression patterns which differed between NSCL/P patients and controls. These results show the robustness of our methodology for the detection of differentially expressed genes using the RankProd method. In conclusion, DPSCs from NSCL/P patients exhibit gene expression signatures involving genes associated with mechanisms of extracellular matrix modeling and palate EMT processes which differ from those observed in controls. This comparative approach should lead to a more rapid identification of gene networks predisposing to this complex malformation syndrome than conventional gene mapping technologies.

Regression Models with Heteroscedasticity using Bayesian Approach

In this paper, we compare the performance of two statistical approaches for the analysis of data obtained from the social research area. In the first approach, we use normal models with joint regression modelling for the mean and for the variance heterogeneity. In the second approach, we use hierarchical models. In the first case, individual and social variables are included in the regression modelling for the mean and for the variance, as explanatory variables, while in the second case, the variance at level 1 of the hierarchical model depends on the individuals (age of the individuals), and in the level 2 of the hierarchical model, the variance is assumed to change according to socioeconomic stratum. Applying these methodologies, we analyze a Colombian tallness data set to find differences that can be explained by socioeconomic conditions. We also present some theoretical and empirical results concerning the two models. From this comparative study, we conclude that it is better to jointly modelling the mean and variance heterogeneity in all cases. We also observe that the convergence of the Gibbs sampling chain used in the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method for the jointly modeling the mean and variance heterogeneity is quickly achieved.

Black-box decomposition approach for computational hemodynamics: One-dimensional models

Increasing efforts exist in integrating different levels of detail in models of the cardiovascular system. For instance, one-dimensional representations are employed to model the systemic circulation. In this context, effective and black-box-type decomposition strategies for one-dimensional networks are needed, so as to: (i) employ domain decomposition strategies for large systemic models (1D-1D coupling) and (ii) provide the conceptual basis for dimensionally-heterogeneous representations (1D-3D coupling, among various possibilities). The strategy proposed in this article works for both of these two scenarios, though the several applications shown to illustrate its performance focus on the 1D-1D coupling case. A one-dimensional network is decomposed in such a way that each coupling point connects two (and not more) of the sub-networks. At each of the M connection points two unknowns are defined: the flow rate and pressure. These 2M unknowns are determined by 2M equations, since each sub-network provides one (non-linear) equation per coupling point. It is shown how to build the 2M x 2M non-linear system with arbitrary and independent choice of boundary conditions for each of the sub-networks. The idea is then to solve this non-linear system until convergence, which guarantees strong coupling of the complete network. In other words, if the non-linear solver converges at each time step, the solution coincides with what would be obtained by monolithically modeling the whole network. The decomposition thus imposes no stability restriction on the choice of the time step size. Effective iterative strategies for the non-linear system that preserve the black-box character of the decomposition are then explored. Several variants of matrix-free Broyden`s and Newton-GMRES algorithms are assessed as numerical solvers by comparing their performance on sub-critical wave propagation problems which range from academic test cases to realistic cardiovascular applications. A specific variant of Broyden`s algorithm is identified and recommended on the basis of its computer cost and reliability. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A pattern recognition approach to complex networks

Complex networks exist in many areas of science such as biology, neuroscience, engineering, and sociology. The growing development of this area has led to the introduction of several topological and dynamical measurements, which describe and quantify the structure of networks. Such characterization is essential not only for the modeling of real systems but also for the study of dynamic processes that may take place in them. However, it is not easy to use several measurements for the analysis of complex networks, due to the correlation between them and the difficulty of their visualization. To overcome these limitations, we propose an effective and comprehensive approach for the analysis of complex networks, which allows the visualization of several measurements in a few projections that contain the largest data variance and the classification of networks into three levels of detail, vertices, communities, and the global topology. We also demonstrate the efficiency and the universality of the proposed methods in a series of real-world networks in the three levels.

Cross-situational learning of object-word mapping using Neural Modeling Fields

The issue of how children learn the meaning of words is fundamental to developmental psychology. The recent attempts to develop or evolve efficient communication protocols among interacting robots or Virtual agents have brought that issue to a central place in more applied research fields, such as computational linguistics and neural networks, as well. An attractive approach to learning an object-word mapping is the so-called cross-situational learning. This learning scenario is based on the intuitive notion that a learner can determine the meaning of a word by finding something in common across all observed uses of that word. Here we show how the deterministic Neural Modeling Fields (NMF) categorization mechanism can be used by the learner as an efficient algorithm to infer the correct object-word mapping. To achieve that we first reduce the original on-line learning problem to a batch learning problem where the inputs to the NMF mechanism are all possible object-word associations that Could be inferred from the cross-situational learning scenario. Since many of those associations are incorrect, they are considered as clutter or noise and discarded automatically by a clutter detector model included in our NMF implementation. With these two key ingredients - batch learning and clutter detection - the NMF mechanism was capable to infer perfectly the correct object-word mapping. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fragment-Based QSAR and Molecular Modeling Studies on a Series of Discodermolide Analogs as Microtubule-Stabilizing Anticancer Agents

Inhibition of microtubule function is an attractive rational approach to anticancer therapy. Although taxanes are the most prominent among the microtubule-stabilizers, their clinical toxicity, poor pharmacokinetic properties, and resistance have stimulated the search for new antitumor agents having the same mechanism of action. Discodermolide is an example of nontaxane natural product that has the same mechanism of action, demonstrating superior antitumor efficacy and therapeutic index. The extraordinary chemical and biological properties have qualified discodermolide as a lead structure for the design of novel anticancer agents with optimized therapeutic properties. In the present work, we have employed a specialized fragment-based method to develop robust quantitative structure - activity relationship models for a series of synthetic discodermolide analogs. The generated molecular recognition patterns were combined with three-dimensional molecular modeling studies as a fundamental step on the path to understanding the molecular basis of drug-receptor interactions within this important series of potent antitumoral agents.

Structure-Based Approach for the Study of Estrogen Receptor Binding Affinity and Subtype Selectivity

Estrogens exert important physiological effects through the modulation of two human estrogen receptor (hER) subtypes, alpa (hER alpha) and beta (hER beta). Because the levels and relative proportion of hER alpha and hER beta differ significantly in different target cells, selective hER ligands could target specific tissues or pathways regulated by one receptor subtype without affecting the other. To understand the structural and chemical basis by which small molecule modulators are able to discriminate between the two subtypes, we have applied three-dimensional target-based approaches employing a series of potent hER-ligands. Comparative molecular field analysis (CoMFA) studies were applied to a data set of 81 hER modulators, for which binding affinity values were collected for both hER alpha and hER beta. Significant statistical coefficients were obtained (hER alpha, q(2) = 0.76; hER beta, q(2) = 0.70), indicating the internal consistency of the models. The generated models were validated using external test sets, and the predicted values were in good agreement with the experimental results. Five hER crystal structures were used in GRID/PCA investigations to generate molecular interaction fields (MIF) maps. hER alpha and hER beta were separated using one factor. The resulting 3D information was integrated with the aim of revealing the most relevant structural features involved in hER subtype selectivity. The final QSAR and GRID/PCA models and the information gathered from 3D contour maps should be useful for the design or novel hER modulators with improved selectivity.

Semiparametric Bayesian measurement error modeling

This work presents a Bayesian semiparametric approach for dealing with regression models where the covariate is measured with error. Given that (1) the error normality assumption is very restrictive, and (2) assuming a specific elliptical distribution for errors (Student-t for example), may be somewhat presumptuous; there is need for more flexible methods, in terms of assuming only symmetry of errors (admitting unknown kurtosis). In this sense, the main advantage of this extended Bayesian approach is the possibility of considering generalizations of the elliptical family of models by using Dirichlet process priors in dependent and independent situations. Conditional posterior distributions are implemented, allowing the use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), to generate the posterior distributions. An interesting result shown is that the Dirichlet process prior is not updated in the case of the dependent elliptical model. Furthermore, an analysis of a real data set is reported to illustrate the usefulness of our approach, in dealing with outliers. Finally, semiparametric proposed models and parametric normal model are compared, graphically with the posterior distribution density of the coefficients. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.